Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population is around 16,045 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 711 people (4.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,334 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,600 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 122 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,753 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's 4.6% growth since the census positions it within 0.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 54.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, lower quartile growth of national areas is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 510 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 0.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has seen around 41 new homes approved each year, with 207 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 28 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.3 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $300,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $45.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 32nd percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This activity is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New building activity consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an expanding range of medium-density options that create a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 92.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 522 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully shows a developed market.

Population forecasts indicate Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully will gain 65 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, and Kings Park Masterplan, with the below list detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully features a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and 2.0% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,680 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 25.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 7.6% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.0% while the labour force increased by 1.5%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully SA2 is slightly above average nationally, with the median assessed at $57,170 while the average income stands at $69,505. This contrasts to Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,887 (median) and $75,239 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.1% of the community (5,792 individuals), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. After housing, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.4% houses and 7.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 35.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (46.6%) or rented (18.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,950, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $405, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.8% of all households, comprising 38.6% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.6% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (26.1%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (23.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 81 active transport stops operating within Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 21 individual routes, collectively providing 4,604 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 277 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional average. A high 25.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 657 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover just leads the average SA2 area at approximately 54% of the total population (~8,648 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.8% and 8.2% of residents, respectively, while 68.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 18.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,022 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 26.1% of its population born overseas and 19.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is Christianity, which makes up 43.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Buddhism, which comprises 3.1% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully are English, comprising 26.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 24.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Other, comprising 7.9% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.6%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.2% of Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully (vs 1.2% regionally), Sri Lankan at 1.1% (vs 0.8%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The 39-year median age in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly very close to the 38-year national average. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (13.0% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (10.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 6.5% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 10.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 34% (352 people), reaching 1,397 from 1,044. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 79% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, the 55 to 64 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.