Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population is around 15,830 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 496 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,334 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,690 from the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,730 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's growth rate of 3.2% since census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.9%, demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 54.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 510 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 1.8% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has seen approximately 75 new homes approved annually. From July 2019 to June 2024, about 377 homes were approved by the ABS on a financial year basis. By June 2026, 16 approvals had been registered in that financial year. On average, around 0.3 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between July 2019 and June 2024, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $550,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $45.3 million, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 33rd percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing dwellings. New building activity shows 67% detached houses and 33% medium to high-density housing, expanding affordable options. This represents a shift from the area's current 92% houses, indicating decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles.

With around 522 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully shows a developed market. Population forecasts indicate it will gain 280 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include Kings Park Masterplan, 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, and Knoxfield Development Victoria Project. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominent. Its unemployment rate was 3.9% as of June 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 0.8% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 8702 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is 66.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have lower representation at 7.6% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.8%, labour force by 0.7%, reducing unemployment by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victorian employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's financial year 2022 data shows Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has a median income of $53,525 and an average income of $66,129. This is slightly above the national averages of $54,892 for median income and $73,761 for average income in Greater Melbourne. By March 2025, based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,936 (median) and $72,815 (average). Census 2021 data indicates that income in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully clusters around the 57th percentile nationally. The $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket captures 36.1% of individuals (5,714), similar to Melbourne's metropolitan region at 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's latest Census data shows 92.4% houses and 7.7% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area was 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.6% and rented ones at 18.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $405, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $405 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 77.8% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households making up 19.6% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate stands at 26.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 17.5% of residents holding one, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 36.1% having them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (23.7%). Educational participation is high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, broken down into primary (8.7%), secondary (7.6%), and tertiary (4.8%) levels.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,684 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions with an ICSEA score of 1042, offering balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has 81 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus services. There are 21 individual routes operating in total.

Collectively, these routes provide 4707 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 277 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 672 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~8,294 people), leading the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.8 and 8.2% of residents respectively. 68.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,865 people), which is lower than the 19.5% in Greater Melbourne. This is broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully, surveyed in 2016, had a culturally diverse population with 26.1% born overseas and 19.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 43.4%. Buddhism was overrepresented at 3.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Top ancestral groups were English (26.2%), Australian (24.7%), and Other (7.9%). Notable ethnic group divergences included Dutch (2.2% vs regional 1.8%), Sri Lankan (1.1% vs 1.4%), and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.4%).

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is 39 years, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. In this area, those aged 55-64 are over-represented at 12.9%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 11.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.8% to 6.0% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 13.0% to 11.0%. By 2041, the population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully. Notably, the 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 46%, reaching 1,397 people from 956. This growth will be led by residents aged 65 and older, who are anticipated to represent 80% of the population increase. Conversely, the 25-34 and 15-24 age groups are expected to experience population declines.