Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population is approximately 16,045 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 711 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,334. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,600 in June 2024 and an additional 122 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,753 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 4.6% since the census is within 0.3 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041 based on these aggregations. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth of national areas is anticipated, with Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully expected to grow by approximately 510 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 0.4% over the 17 years based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has seen approximately 41 new homes approved each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 207 homes were approved, with a further 27 approved in FY26 thus far. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years is approximately 0.3.

This suggests that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. New properties are constructed at an average value of $300,000, consistent with regional patterns. In FY26, $45.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating robust local business investment. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 32nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings.

New building activity shows 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing. This represents an expanding range of medium-density options, creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This is a notable shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 92.0% houses. With around 522 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully shows a developed market. Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain approximately 65 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified sixteen projects expected to impact the area. Notable ones are 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, and Kings Park Masterplan. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 4.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.1% over the past year as of September 2025. There are 8,641 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 0.6% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 71.0%. According to Census responses, 25.6% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in construction with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 7.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force increased by 0.7%, resulting in a unemployment fall by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully SA2 was $57,170 and average income was $69,505. Nationally, the median assessed income is slightly lower at $56,864 with an average of $73,026. For Greater Melbourne, median income was $57,688 and average income was $75,164 in financial year 2023. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since then, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $61,887 median and $75,239 average for Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully. Census 2021 data indicates that income in this area clusters around the 56th percentile nationally. The most common income bracket is $1,500 - $2,999, which captures 36.1% of individuals (5,792 people). This aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's latest Census data shows 92.4% houses and 7.7% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area was 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.6% and rented at 18.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Melbourne metro's $2,000, and median weekly rent was $405, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375 by $30.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.8% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.6% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (23.7%). Educational participation is high at 27.3%, with 8.7% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has 81 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 21 different routes that together facilitate 4,604 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 277 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential region, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 25.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 657 trips per day, translating to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully residents have relatively positive health outcomes according to AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions, conducted on 20th May 2021. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is held by approximately 54% of the total population (~8,648 people), slightly leading the average SA2 area, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.8 and 8.2% of residents respectively, while 68.5% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 18.8% (3,022 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, though it ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 26.1% of its population born overseas and 19.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.4% of people in the area. Buddhism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 3.1% of Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population versus 4.2% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups were English at 26.2%, Australian at 24.7%, and Other at 7.9%. Dutch, Sri Lankan, and Hungarian ethnicities showed notable overrepresentation compared to regional averages.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is 39 years, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 age group is notably over-represented at 13.0% locally while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.6%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 6.5% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 10.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 34%, reaching 1,397 people from 1,044. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 79% of the anticipated growth. Conversely, the 55-64 and 0-4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.