Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population is approximately 15,648 as of May 2026. This represents an increase of 314 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,334. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2025 (15,630) and the Census date. The population density is around 1,710 persons per square kilometer, higher than average national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 2.0% growth since census is close to its SA3 area's 3.1%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55.9% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth nationally, with Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully expected to grow by 492 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 3.0% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has seen approximately 41 new homes approved annually. Between FY21 and FY25207 homes were approved, with a further 31 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 0.3 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth. The average construction cost of new properties is $300,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $45.3 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 32nd percentile nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings.

New building activity comprises 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium to high-density housing, expanding affordable compact alternatives. With around 522 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully shows a developed market. By 2041, the area is forecasted to gain 474 residents. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. Sixteen projects identified by AreaSearch may impact the area. Notable ones are: 13 Mountain Gate Drive townhouses, Angliss Hospital expansion, Knoxfield Development Victoria project, and Kings Park masterplan. Below is a detailed list of those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.1% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.0%.

In December 2025, 8,680 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was on par with Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A high proportion of residents, 25.6%, worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area had a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Professional & technical services showed lower representation at 7.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.0%, labour force by 1.5%, and unemployment fell by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% with a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, varying by industry sector. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully SA2 is slightly above average nationally. The median income is $57,170 and the average income stands at $69,505. In contrast, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully would be approximately $62,670 median and $76,191 average as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.1% of the community (5,648 individuals), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully had 92.4% houses and 7.7% other dwellings at the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.6% and rented ones at 18.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $405, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $405.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.8 percent of all households, including 38.6 percent couples with children, 25.6 percent couples without children, and 12.5 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.2 percent, with lone person households at 19.6 percent and group households comprising 2.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 23.7%. Educational participation is high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has 81 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 21 individual routes, providing 4604 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 277 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 25.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 657 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully residents have relatively positive health outcomes, according to AreaSearch's analysis conducted on 3rd March 2022. Mortality rates and health conditions are broadly in line with national benchmarks.

The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the nation's average among older, at-risk cohorts. As of 31st December 2021, approximately 54% of the total population (~8,434 people) have private health cover, slightly leading the average SA2 area and comparing to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues (8.8%) and asthma (8.2%), while 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. As of 30th June 2021, 18.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,871 people), which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 26.1% of its population born overseas and 19.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.4% of the population. Buddhism, however, was more prevalent in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully compared to Greater Melbourne, with 3.1% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English at 26.2%, Australian at 24.7%, and Other at 7.9%. Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented at 2.2%, Sri Lankan at 1.1%, and Hungarian at 0.4% compared to regional averages of 1.2%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is 39 years, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. In this area, the 55-64 age group makes up 12.8% of the population, which is notably higher than the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.8% to 6.4%, and the 25-34 age group has decreased from 13.0% to 11.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 37%, reaching 1,366 people from 995. The 65 and older age group is anticipated to represent 70% of this growth, while the 0-4 and 15-24 age groups are projected to experience population declines.