Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population is around 15,830 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 496 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,334 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,690 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,730 persons per square kilometer. Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's growth rate of 3.2% since census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.9%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 54.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 510 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 1.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has seen approximately 41 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 207 homes were approved, with an additional 21 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 0.3 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $550,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $45.3 million, indicating high local commercial activity. Comparatively, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person when measured against Greater Melbourne. Nationally, it ranks in the 33rd percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings.

This activity is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 67% detached houses and 33% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the area's current 92% houses indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 522 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully shows a developed market. Population forecasts indicate it will gain approximately 280 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Kings Park Masterplan, Angliss Hospital Expansion, 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, and Knoxfield Development Victoria Project. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominently represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.9% as of June 2021 and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 0.8% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 8702 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, which is 0.7% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was at 66.9%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction showed particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 7.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.8%, while labour force increased by 0.7%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that median income in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is $53,525 and average income stands at $66,129. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $60,034 (median) and $74,170 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully cluster around the 57th percentile nationally. Income brackets show that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.1% of the community (5,714 individuals), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. After housing, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully had 92.4% houses and 7.7% other dwellings at the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.6% and rented dwellings at 18.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $405, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.8% of all households, consisting of 38.6% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.6% and group households making up 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate of 26.1% falls significantly below Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are common, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (23.7%). Educational participation is high at 27.3%, comprising primary education (8.7%), secondary education (7.6%), and tertiary education (4.8%).

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,684 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1042) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area has three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully has 81 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of trains and buses, with 21 individual routes operating in total. Together, these routes facilitate 4707 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 277 meters from the nearest stop. On average, services run 672 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully South's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, with mental health issues impacting 8.8% of residents and asthma affecting 8.2%. Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of the total population (~8,294 people), leading the average SA2 area rate. About 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,865 people), which is lower than the 19.5% in Greater Melbourne. This aligns broadly with the general population's health profile.

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 26.1% of its population born overseas and 19.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully, comprising 43.4% of the population. However, Buddhism had a higher representation in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully with 3.1%, compared to 4.6% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English at 26.2%, Australian at 24.7%, and Other at 7.9%. Notable differences included Dutch, overrepresented at 2.2% compared to the regional average of 1.8%, Sri Lankan at 1.1% (vs 1.4%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.4%).

Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Ferntree Gully (South) - Upper Ferntree Gully is 39 years, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is close to the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group is over-represented at 12.9%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group grew from 4.8% to 6.0% of the population, and the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 13.0% to 11.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 46%, reaching 1,397 people from 956. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 80% of the population growth. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 age groups are projected to experience population declines.