Warragul

Warragul lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Warragul's population is around 27,296 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 4,245 people (18.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,051 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,913 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 893 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 77 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Warragul's 18.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of Vic. (8.1%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 7,414 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 18.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warragul has recorded around 283 residential properties granted approval annually, with 1,416 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 156 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.6 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $284,000. Additionally, $70.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Warragul records somewhat elevated construction (13.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. This level is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 107 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections show Warragul adding 5,027 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Warragul has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 34 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section, and Loom Warragul, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warragul demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Warragul has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.7%, and 5.6% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 12,860 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.0% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (65.2% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 17.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. On the other hand, accommodation & food is under-represented, with only 5.3% of Warragul's workforce compared to 6.9% in Regional Vic.. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 5.6% alongside the labour force increasing by 5.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Warragul. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warragul's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Warragul SA2 is just below the national average, with the median assessed at $52,770 while the average income stands at $65,822. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,124 (median) and $71,252 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Warragul, between the 39th and 40th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 32.9% of locals (8,980 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Warragul, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 89.0% houses and 10.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Warragul was in line with that of Regional Vic., at 39.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (38.8%) or rented (21.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Vic. average at $1,647, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $320, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 72.1% of all households, comprising 30.1% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.9%, with lone person households at 25.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warragul aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (23.2%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (27.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 89 active transport stops operating within Warragul, comprising a mix of train services. These stops are serviced by 22 individual routes, collectively providing 1,644 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 347 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling. Some 17.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 234 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Warragul are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Warragul, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical, though higher than the national average among older cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~14,166 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.8% and 9.6% of residents, respectively, while 63.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (5,423 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Warragul is Christianity, which makes up 46.5% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 0.7% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Warragul are English, comprising 31.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.7% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.6% of Warragul (vs 1.7% regionally), Scottish at 8.8% (vs 8.8%) and Hungarian at 0.3% (vs 0.2%).

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 40-year median age in Warragul is modestly under Regional Vic.'s average of 43 though slightly above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 25 - 34 cohort is notably over-represented (14.7% locally), while 65 - 74 year-olds are under-represented (10.7%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.5% to 13.3% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 13.0% to 14.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.3% to 10.8% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 12.5% to 11.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Warragul. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, growing by 1,457 people (36%) from 4,020 to 5,478. The 15 to 24 group displays more modest growth at 0%, adding only 9 residents.