Warragul

Warragul lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warragul's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 25,493 as of May 2026. This figure represents a growth of 2,442 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 23,051 people. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 25,393 in June 2025 and an additional 1,066 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 72 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's growth rate of 10.6% from 2021 to May 2026 exceeds both the Rest of Vic. (4.3%) and the SA4 region, indicating significant growth in the area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Population growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, a significant population increase in Warragul is forecasted, with an expected rise of 6,631 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 25.6% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warragul approved around 283 residential properties annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 1,416 homes were approved, with a further 222 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, approximately 2.6 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these years, indicating strong demand for housing.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $284,000. This year, Warragul has recorded $70.6 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting robust commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Warragul's construction levels are 13.0% higher per person over the past five years, suggesting good buyer choice and support for existing property values, which is significantly above the national average. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low-density nature while attracting space-seeking buyers.

There are approximately 107 people per dwelling approval in Warragul, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warragul is projected to add 6,530 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Warragul has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 33 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section, and Loom Warragul. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warragul demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Warragul has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.7% as of December 2025, which is below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 5.6%.

There were 12,860 residents in work, with workforce participation at 63.8%, slightly above Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. A moderate 17.5% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction is notably concentrated in Warragul, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

However, accommodation & food services are under-represented, with only 5.3% of Warragul's workforce compared to Regional Vic.'s 6.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 5.6%, while the labour force grew by 5.4%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that Warragul's employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Warragul SA2 had a median income of $52,770 and an average income of $65,822. This is compared to Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates for Warragul SA2 are approximately $57,846 (median) and $72,154 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Warragul rank modestly, between the 39th and 40th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 32.9% of locals (8,387 people) with an income range of $1,500 to $2,999. After housing costs, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. Warragul SA2's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.0% houses and 10.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul was at 39.8%, similar to Regional Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 38.8% and rented dwellings at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,647, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Warragul was $320, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,647 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $320 compared to the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.1% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.9%, with lone person households at 25.7% and group households making up 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warragul aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 27.2%. Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 89 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by 22 different routes, collectively facilitating 1,644 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 347 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Warragul's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 234 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Warragul are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Warragul's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical of the general population but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is slightly lagging at approximately 52% of the total population (~13,230 people), compared to the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, affecting 9.8 and 9.6% of residents respectively. 63.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.5% of residents aged 65 and over (5,218 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul had a cultural diversity level below average, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, at 46.5%. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, comprising 0.7% compared to Regional Vic's 0.8%.

For ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.6%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Dutch at 2.6% (vs regional 1.7%), Scottish at 8.8% (same as regionally), and Hungarian at 0.3% (vs regional 0.2%).

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 14.0% of Warragul's population, higher than the Regional Vic. average, while the 65-74 age group comprises 11.0%, which is lower compared to the regional average. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 11.5% to 13.2% of Warragul's population, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.3% to 10.8%. By 2041, projections suggest significant demographic shifts in Warragul. The 25-34 age group is expected to expand by 1,597 people (45%), reaching a total of 5,159 residents from the current 3,561. Meanwhile, the 75-84 age group is projected to grow at a more modest rate of 8%, adding only 141 residents.