Warragul

Warragul lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warragul's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 27,296. This figure represents an increase of 4,245 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,051. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,913 in June 2024 and an additional 893 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 77 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's population growth rate of 18.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the Rest of Vic (8.1%) and the national average, making it a notable growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and the latest annual ERP population numbers, Warragul's population is forecasted to increase by 7,414 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 18.4% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warragul has granted around 283 residential properties approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,416 homes were approved. In FY-26, up until now, 137 homes have been approved.

On average, over these five years, approximately 2.6 people moved to the area annually for each new home constructed, indicating solid demand which supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $284,000. This year, $70.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warragul records elevated construction activity, with 13.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This level is significantly higher than the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an emphasis on detached housing. The location has approximately 107 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Future projections estimate Warragul to add 5,027 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Warragul has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 34 such projects that could potentially impact the area. Notable among these are Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section, and Loom Warragul. The following list provides details on those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Warragul shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Warragul has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.7% as of September 2025, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. There was an estimated employment growth of 4.3% over the past year.

As of that date, 12,771 residents were in work and workforce participation was at 64.7%, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, 17.5% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, the area has a high concentration in construction with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

However, accommodation & food services are under-represented, with only 5.3% of Warragul's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 4.3%, while the labour force also grew by 4.3%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a growth rate of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warragul's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Warragul SA2 had an income median of $52,770 and average income of $65,822. This is compared to Rest of Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,124 (median) and $71,252 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Warragul ranks modestly between the 39th and 40th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort in Warragul spans 32.9% of locals (8,980 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader area where 30.3% fall within this range. After housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. Warragul's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.0% houses and 10.9% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure comprised 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul stood at 39.8%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (38.8%) or rented (21.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Warragul was $1,647, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Warragul was recorded at $320, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.1% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.9%, with lone person households at 25.7% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warragul aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (27.2%). Educational participation is high at 28.1%, with 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 89 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include train stops. They are serviced by 22 individual routes, collectively providing 1,644 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 347 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Warragul's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 94%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, some 17.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 234 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Warragul are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Warragul's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~14,166 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.8%) and arthritis (9.6%). 63.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (5,423 people), lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul's cultural diversity was below average, with 86.0% born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 46.5%. The most notable overrepresentation was in Other, at 0.7%, compared to 0.8% regionally.

For ancestry, the top groups were English (31.6%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Dutch representation was notably higher at 2.6% (vs regional 1.7%), Scottish also stood out at 8.8% (matching regional figure), and Hungarian was slightly higher at 0.3% (vs regional 0.2%).

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 40 years, which is slightly below the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. Comparing with the Rest of Vic., the 25-34 cohort is notably higher at 14.7% locally while the 65-74 age group is under-represented at 10.7%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.5% to 13.3%, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 13.0% to 14.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.3% to 10.8%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 12.5% to 11.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Warragul, with the 25 to 34 age cohort projected to expand by 1,457 people (36%), from 4,020 to 5,478. The 15 to 24 group is expected to grow modestly at 0%, adding only 9 residents.