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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Warragul has an estimated 25,493 residents, up from 23,051 at the 2021 Census — a change of 2,442 people, or 10.6%. Growth has averaged 2.8% a year over five years. 1,066 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. Interstate and internal migration accounts for 64.1% of that increase. Density is about 72 people per square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Warragul stands at approximately 25,493 as of May 2026. Compared to the 23,051 individuals counted during the 2021 Census, this represents a growth of 2,442 residents (10.6%). This adjustment is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 25,393 combined with 1,066 validated new addresses recorded after the Census. Such population numbers translate to a density of 72 persons per square kilometer, offering plenty of space per inhabitant and opportunities for future expansion. With this 10.6% growth rate relative to the 2021 Census, Warragul outpaced both the Rest of Vic.
(4.3%) and the surrounding SA4 region, positioning it as a local growth frontrunner. The main catalyst for this expansion was interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 64.1% of the population increase, although other contributors like natural increase and overseas migration also registered positive results. AreaSearch is using the projections from ABS/Geoscience Australia for each SA2 area, which were published in 2024 and use 2022 as the base year. Where these projections do not cover certain SA2 areas, AreaSearch relies on the Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections that came out in 2023, applying adjustments through a weighted aggregation method to scale population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Age-specific growth rates derived from these aggregations are then applied across all areas for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends indicate a substantial rise in population for the top quartile of regional areas across the country, with the area projected to grow by 6,631 people by 2041 according to the most recent annual ERP population figures, representing a total increase of 25.6% over the 16 year span.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
1,416 new dwellings have been approved in Warragul over the past five years, an average of 283 a year. That places the area in the 94th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 11 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 202 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 92% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 288, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Property development in Warragul has proceeded at an average pace of approximately 283 residential building approvals annually, translating to 1,416 new dwellings over the last 5 financial years. During the current FY-26 period, 264 approvals have been logged. The ratio of population growth to construction shows that 2.3 people moved to the area for every new residence built during the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, pointing to healthy demand that underpins property values, with the average construction cost of new homes standing at $284,000. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $70.6 million in the current financial year, indicating a healthy level of local business investment.
Warragul experiences a slightly higher level of building activity than the regional average, running 13.0% above the per capita rate for Rest of Vic. over the 5 year period, which maintains choice for buyers while supporting property demand. This volume is also well above the national average, showing strong developer interest in the region. Recent residential construction is dominated by detached dwellings at 92.0%, with attached dwellings accounting for the remaining 8.0%, maintaining the low-density profile of the area and appealing to buyers seeking extra space. The ratio of population to building activity sits at roughly 109 people per dwelling approval, pointing to an expanding local market. Long-term population projections suggest Warragul will add 6,530 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. Given current building trends, the supply of new housing is expected to comfortably satisfy this demand, maintaining favorable conditions for purchasers and potentially supporting growth beyond the forecasted baseline.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Warragul
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 27 current infrastructure and development projects inside Warragul, worth an estimated $2.43 billion. A further 88 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $25.4 billion. 42 are already under construction and 45 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans communities, precincts & urban renewal, residential development and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and town planning decisions play a crucial role in shaping regional performance. AreaSearch has tracked 33 active projects likely to influence the local area. Notable developments include the Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Stage 11 of the Emberwood Estate, the Princes Highway East Upgrade along the Warragul Section, and Loom Warragul, with key details provided in the following list.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
New West Gippsland Hospital
A flagship greenfield regional healthcare development delivering a modern replacement hospital for West Gippsland featuring 223 beds, 33 emergency department spaces, three operating theatres, outpatient care, birthing unit, and a residential aged care facility.
Baw Baw Culture and Connection Precinct (Stage 1)
Construction of a new multi-level community library, learning centre, arts/gallery space, co-working facilities, cafe, and integrated civic plaza connecting to West Gippsland Arts Centre and Civic Park.
New West Gippsland Hospital
A major greenfield regional health project to construct a new, state-of-the-art hospital facility serving the Shire of Baw Baw and West Gippsland. Designed to replace the aging facility in Warragul, the new greenfield hospital in Drouin East will feature an expanded emergency department, acute inpatient beds, modern surgical suites, and public sector residential aged care facilities.
Emberwood Estate - Stage 11
Stage 11 forms part of the 330-lot Emberwood masterplanned estate in Warragul. The stage comprises titled residential lots that are benched, retained and fenced, with supporting parklands, playgrounds and pedestrian connections. Stage 11 is selling alongside Stage 12, with Stage 13 announced as the next release.
Baw Baw Economic Land Use Strategy (Amendment C154bawb)
Planning scheme amendment (C154bawb) by Baw Baw Shire Council to implement the Economic Land Use Strategy. The amendment updates Local Planning Policy and rezones land across Warragul and Drouin to increase the supply of commercial and industrial land. It is currently post-exhibition and has been referred to an independent planning panel.
Baw Baw Culture and Connection Precinct
A major civic and cultural redevelopment featuring a multi-level Library and Learning Centre, gallery spaces, community meeting rooms, co-working spaces, and a pedestrian plaza connecting to the West Gippsland Arts Centre and Civic Park.
Warragul Leisure Centre Stadium Expansion
Major facility expansion delivering two new multi-use indoor sports courts, a new cafe, modern change rooms, public amenities, and improved spectator viewing areas.
Lillifield Estate
Premium residential estate development by Parklea Developments featuring sustainable housing design and community amenities. When completed, will comprise 1000 lots and include a shopping centre, modern primary school and childcare facilities. Located in Warragul's northern pocket.
12,818 residents of Warragul are employed, from a labour force of 13,166. Unemployment sits at 2.6%, with participation at 63.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.3% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce in Warragul possesses diverse skills, with strong representation in key service sectors, an unemployment rate of only 2.6%, and estimated job growth of 3.6% over the preceding year. As of March 2026, employed residents numbered 12,818, while the unemployment rate remained 1.0% below the 3.7% recorded for Regional Vic. Workforce participation is typical, sitting at 63.6% compared to 61.1% in Regional Vic. Census data indicates that a moderate 17.5% of the local workforce performed their roles from home, although this figure may be influenced by pandemic lockdown measures.
The primary sectors employing local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The construction sector shows a particularly high concentration of workers, employing residents at 1.2 times the rate seen across the rest of the region. Conversely, accommodation & food services is underrepresented, employing 5.3% of the local workforce compared to 6.9% across Regional Vic. Although there are local employment options, comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests a significant portion of the workforce travels to other areas for employment. An examination of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch shows that over the 12-month period, the number of employed residents rose by 3.6% and the local labor force expanded by 3.4%, resulting in a 0.3 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. This stands in contrast to Regional Vic., where employment fell by 0.1% and the labor force contracted by 0.3%, leading to a 0.2 percentage point decline. Additional insights into future workforce requirements in Warragul can be drawn from the national employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local industry profile to project local workforce growth. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely by sector. Applying these national sector trends to the local industry mix suggests Warragul's employment base could expand by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a basic weighted extrapolation for comparison and does not incorporate local population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Warragul is $1,590 a week (about $83,000 a year), with median personal income at $756 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $52,770 a year against an average of $65,822. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
The latest postcode-level ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year show that incomes in the Warragul SA2 are slightly lower than the national average, with a median income of $52,770 and an average income of $65,822. This compares to a median of $50,954 and an average of $62,728 across Regional Vic. Adjusted for the Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% recorded since the 2023 financial year, current estimates for March 2026 would stand at approximately $57,846 for the median and $72,154 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in Warragul were modest, falling between the 39th and 40th percentiles nationally.
Income distribution data shows the largest group consists of 32.9% of residents (8,387 people) earning in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, mirroring the wider region where 30.3% of the population falls into this bracket. Discretionary income after housing costs stands at 86.4%, and the area ranks in the 5th decile of the SEIFA index for income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Warragul had 8,552 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 89% detached houses and 4% apartments. 39% are owned with a mortgage, 22% rented and 40% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $320 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,647 a month. Rent absorbs 20.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 23.9%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Residential architecture in Warragul at the time of the last Census consisted of 89.0% standalone houses and 10.9% alternative housing types like townhouses and apartments, compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings across Regional Vic. Home ownership rates in Warragul matched the regional average at 39.8%, with the remaining properties being purchased under a mortgage (38.8%) or occupied by tenants (21.5%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,647 was notably higher than the Regional Vic. median of $1,430, and the median weekly rent of $320 also exceeded the regional figure of $285.
In contrast, Warragul's median mortgage payments are lower than the national average of $1,863, and weekly rents remain well below the Australian median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Warragul counted 8,552 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 9,458 today, averaging 2.5 people each. 30% are couples with children, against 30% couples without children. 26% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
The majority of households in the area are families, which account for 72.1% of all homes. This group consists of couples with children at 30.1%, couples without children at 30.4%, and single-parent households at 10.8%. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.9% of the total, consisting of single-person households at 25.7% and group housing arrangements at 2.1%. The median household occupancy is 2.5 residents, slightly higher than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
23.2% of adults in Warragul hold a university qualification, including 15.3% with a bachelor degree and 4.4% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 27.2% hold a vocational qualification. 16 schools serve the area, with 5,498 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,011 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational outcomes in the area show room for improvement, as the proportion of residents with university degrees (23.2%) is lower than the VIC average of 33.4%. This highlights a clear opportunity for targeted educational programs. Among degree holders, bachelor qualifications are most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.4% and graduate diplomas at 3.5%. Vocational and technical qualifications are highly prevalent, with 39.0% of the population aged 15+ holding qualifications such as advanced diplomas (11.8%) or certificates (27.2%). A high proportion of the community is engaged in learning, with 28.1% of the population enrolled in an educational institution.
Within this group, 9.8% attend primary school, 8.4% are in secondary school, and 3.7% are enrolled in higher education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Warragul reaches 89 stops on 22 routes, timetabled for about 1,600 services a week. The typical home sits about 350 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.6 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Analysis of local public transport shows 89 active transit stops operating in Warragul, including train services. These stops are connected to 22 different routes, which provide a total of 1,644 passenger trips each week. Transport access is rated favorably, with the average distance from a home to the nearest transit point being 347 meters. Because the area is mainly residential, most workers travel out of the district for employment, with private cars remaining the primary transport method for 94% of commuters. Households own an average of 1.6 vehicles. The 2021 Census recorded that 17.5% of residents worked from home, although this figure may reflect conditions during the pandemic.
Transit services run at an average frequency of 234 daily trips across the entire network, representing approximately 18 weekly departures at each transit stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
63.9% of residents in Warragul report no long-term health condition. 6.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 51.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of local mortality rates and the occurrence of long-term medical conditions, health indicators for Warragul are below average. While the prevalence of common health issues in the broader population is typical, it exceeds national averages when looking at older age brackets. Additionally, private health insurance coverage is slightly below the SA2 average, with approximately 52% of residents (~13,230 people) holding coverage. The primary medical diagnoses reported by local residents are mental health conditions and arthritis, affecting 9.8% and 9.6% of the population respectively. Meanwhile, 63.9% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.
Chronic conditions are more common than average among the working-age demographic. Residents aged 65 and over make up 20.5% of the local population (5,218 people), which is lower than the Regional Vic. average of 23.9%. Health outcomes for these older residents present some difficulties, though they rank better nationally than the outcomes seen in the younger demographics of the area.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Warragul is largely Australian-born, at 86.0% of residents, with 6.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.6%) and Australian (29.7%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in Warragul is below the national average, with 86.0% of residents born in Australia, 89.9% holding citizenship, and 93.6% speaking only English in their homes. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 46.5% of the local population. The most visible statistical difference is in the Other religious category, which represents 0.7% of the local population compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic. The primary ancestries reported by Warragul residents are English at 31.6%, Australian at 29.7%, and Irish at 8.9%. Significant differences also appear in other ancestries, with Dutch heritage overrepresented at 2.6% of the local population compared to 1.7% across the wider region, Scottish ancestry at 8.8% compared to 8.8% regionally, and Hungarian ancestry at 0.3% compared to 0.2% regionally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Warragul is 40. That is 1 year younger than at the 2021 Census. 25.5% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of residents in Warragul is 40, which is slightly younger than the Regional Vic. average of 43 but older than the Australian median of 38. The local population features an overrepresentation of the 25 - 34 age bracket at 14.0%, while the 65 - 74 age bracket is underrepresented at 11.0%. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 11.5% to 13.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has shrunk from 12.3% to 10.8%. Long-range projections to 2041 forecast significant demographic shifts, with the 25 to 34 age bracket expected to grow by 45%, rising by 1,597 people from 3,561 to 5,159.
Conversely, the 75 to 84 cohort is projected to experience much slower growth of 8%, adding 141 residents.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Warragul
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 51 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 1,066 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (23,051 at the 2021 Census → 25,493 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (205011079). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.