Warragul

Warragul lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warragul's population is approximately 25,947 as of November 2025. This figure represents a 12.6% increase from the 23,051 people recorded in the 2021 Census. The estimated resident population was 24,970 in June 2024, with an additional 888 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a density ratio of 73 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's population growth exceeded that of non-metro areas (6.0%) and its SA4 region during this period. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 70% of overall population gains, with other factors such as natural growth and overseas migration also contributing positively.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Warragul is projected to increase its population by 7,414 persons, reflecting a total gain of 24.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warragul has granted around 283 residential properties approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 1,416 homes were approved and by FY-26126 have been approved so far. An average of 2.6 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these years.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $284,000. This year, $70.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Warragul has a somewhat elevated construction level, 13.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings.

The location has approximately 107 people per dwelling approval. Future projections estimate Warragul to add 6,376 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Warragul has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section, and Loom Warragul. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Warragul shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Warragul has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.3%.

As of September 2025, 12,771 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was at 60.0%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

However, accommodation & food services were under-represented, with only 5.3% of Warragul's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the past year, employment increased by 4.3%, while labour force also increased by 4.3%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. Meanwhile, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warragul's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Warragul SA2 is just below the national average. The median income is $50,583 while the average income stands at $63,595. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $48,741 and the average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Warragul SA2 would be approximately $56,734 (median) and $71,328 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Warragul rank modestly, between the 39th and 40th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.9% of locals (8,536 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the broader area where 30.3% occupy this range. After housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.0% houses and 10.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul stood at 39.8%, similar to Non-Metro Vic.'s level. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 38.8% and rented dwellings made up 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, above Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent in Warragul was $320, matching Non-Metro Vic.'s figure but significantly lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,647 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 72.1% of all households, consisting of 30.1% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.9%, with lone person households at 25.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational attainment in Warragul aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (27.2%). Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.8% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 95 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 31 distinct routes that facilitate 1,657 weekly passenger trips in total. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 345 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 236 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warragul is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warragul faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population (~13,284 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.8% and 9.6% of residents respectively. A total of 63.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Rest of Vic. The area has 20.2% of residents aged 65 and over (5,241 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Warragul, comprising 46.5% of people. The most apparent overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which comprised 0.7% of the population compared to 0.6% across Rest of Vic..

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English at 31.6%, Australian at 29.7%, and Irish at 8.9%. Notably, Dutch was overrepresented at 2.6% (vs 2.7% regionally), Scottish at 8.8% (vs 8.5%), and Hungarian at 0.3% (vs 0.3%).

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 40 years, which is slightly below the average for the Rest of Victoria (43) but above the Australian median (38). Compared to the Rest of Victoria average, the 25-34 age cohort is notably higher at 14.2% locally, while the 65-74 age group is under-represented at 10.7%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.9%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 13.0% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 12.3% to 11.1%. Population forecasts for Warragul in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 1,798 people (49%), growing from 3,679 to 5,478 residents. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow modestly at 2%, adding only 43 residents.