Warragul
Statistical Area - sa2

Warragul lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Warragul's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 25,872 people. This figure represents a 12.2% increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 23,051. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 24,957, with an additional 863 validated new addresses contributing to this growth. This results in a population density of 73 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's growth exceeded the non-metro area (5.5%) and its SA4 region. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 70% of recent population gains, although all drivers were positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is forecasted to increase by 7,414 persons, recording a total gain of 24.9%.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warragul granted around 337 residential approvals annually. ABS data shows 1,686 homes approved between financial years 2020 to 2025, with 41 approvals in FY-26 so far. An average of 2.6 people moved per new home constructed over the past five financial years. New homes have an average construction cost value of $422,000.

There were $70.6 million in commercial approvals this year. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warragul had 17.0% higher development activity per person over the past five years. It maintains a low-density nature with 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% medium-high density housing. There are approximately 107 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts predict Warragul will gain 6,451 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potential growth exceeding current forecasts.

Warragul has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 33 projects likely affecting the region. Major initiatives include Mason Street Social Housing Development, Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Emberwood Estate Stage 11, and Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Warragul demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Warragul's workforce is skilled with a low unemployment rate of 2.8% as of June 2025. It has 12,253 residents in work, which is 1.0% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is at 60.0%, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. Conversely, accommodation & food services are under-represented at 5.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.9%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the past year, labour force decreased by 0.7% and employment by 1.2%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Sep-25 shows VIC's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections for Warragul suggest local growth may be around 6.3%% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

In Warragul, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, the median income among taxpayers was $50,583. The average income stood at $63,595 during this period. This figure is slightly below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic had median and average incomes of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively in the same financial year. Considering Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $55,697 (median) and $70,024 (average) in Warragul. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Warragul rank modestly, falling between the 40th and 41st percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 32.9% of Warragul's population (8,511 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, which is similar to regional levels where 30.3% fall into this bracket. After accounting for housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses in Warragul. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile based on these figures.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.0% houses and 10.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul was at 39.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.8% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,647, while median weekly rent was $320. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.1 percent of all households, including 30.1 percent couples with children, 30.4 percent couples without children, and 10.8 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.9 percent, with lone person households at 25.7 percent and group households making up 2.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Rest of Vic. average.

Educational attainment in Warragul aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (27.2%). Current educational participation is high at 28.1%, comprising primary education (9.8%), secondary education (8.4%), and tertiary education (3.7%).

Sixteen schools serve a total of 5,498 students. Warragul's school conditions are typical of Australia (ICSEA: 1011) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes nine primary, four secondary, and three K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 95 active public transport stops, served by a mix of train and bus routes. These are made up of 31 individual routes that provide a total of 1657 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living within 345 meters of the nearest stop.

The average service frequency across all routes is 236 trips per day, which equates to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warragul is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warragul faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is held by approximately 51% of the total population (~13,246 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area rate. Mental health issues affect 9.8% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.6%. A total of 63.9% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Rest of Vic. The area has 20.2% of residents aged 65 and over (5,226 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul, surveyed in 2016, had 86.0% of its population born in Australia, with 89.9% being citizens and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 46.5%. The 'Other' category was slightly overrepresented at 0.7%, compared to 0.6% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Notably, Dutch (2.6%) and Scottish (8.8%) were proportionately higher than regional averages of 2.7% and 8.5%, respectively, while Hungarian representation was similar at 0.3%.

Warragul's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 40 years, which is slightly below the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but somewhat above Australia's median of 38. Comparing with the Rest of Vic., the 25-34 cohort is significantly higher at 14.2% locally while the 65-74 age group is lower at 10.7%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35 to 44 age group has risen from 11.5% to 12.9%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has increased from 13.0% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 12.3% to 11.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial changes for Warragul's demographics. The 25-34 age group is projected to expand significantly by 1,809 people (49%), growing from 3,668 to 5,478 residents. Meanwhile, the 75-84 age group shows more modest growth of 3%, adding only 48 residents.