Yarragon

Population growth drivers in Yarragon are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Yarragon is around 2,059. This figure reflects an increase of 166 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,893. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,876 in June 2024 and the validation of 18 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 30 persons per square kilometer. Yarragon's growth rate of 8.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 8.1%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 46.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, an above median population growth is expected in national regional areas, with the suburb of Yarragon projected to expand by 309 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 6.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Yarragon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Yarragon has averaged approximately 4 dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 21 homes. In FY-26 so far, there has been 1 recorded approval. This results in around 5.3 people moving to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. The supply of new dwellings is substantially lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $460,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $700,000 in commercial approvals registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Yarragon shows substantially reduced construction activity, being 80.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings, despite recent intensification of construction activity which remains lower than nationally. The area's low density nature is preserved with 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments being built, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 98.0% houses.

The estimated count of 349 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Yarragon is expected to grow by 126 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Yarragon has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the local area's performance: The Range Estate, Trafalgar Road Network Repairs, Trafalgar Structure Plan, and Gippsland Odyssey Trail (Trafalgar Section). These projects are considered most relevant to the area.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Yarragon significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Yarragon's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.2% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 6.2% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of that date, 995 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was 65.6%, slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Approximately 18.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. Yarragon had a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but accommodation & food services employed only 5.2% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 6.9%.

Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by the working population compared to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 6.2%, and labour force grew by 5.5%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw a 0.6% decrease in employment, a 0.7% contraction in labour force, and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Yarragon. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Yarragon's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Yarragon had a median income among taxpayers of $47,998 and an average income of $61,456. These figures are below the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Regional Vic. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,958 (median) and $66,526 (average). Census 2021 data indicates Yarragon's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 25th and 30th percentiles. Income distribution shows 29.6% of the population (609 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the regional percentage of 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains, ranking at the 28th percentile nationally. Yarragon's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Yarragon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated dwelling structures in Yarragon as 97.9% houses and 2.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarragon stood at 44.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.8% and rented ones at 15.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Yarragon was $320, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Yarragon's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Yarragon has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 71.2% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households making up 1.1%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional Vic average.

Educational outcomes in Yarragon fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (30.4%). Educational participation is high, with 25.3% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Yarragon has three operational public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by thirteen different routes, collectively facilitating 323 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered limited, with residents typically residing 701 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Yarragon residents commute outward, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 95%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 18.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 46 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 107 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarragon is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarragon faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 51% of Yarragon's total population (~1,053 people) has private health cover. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.9 and 9.2% of residents respectively. 63.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. 24.6% of Yarragon's residents are aged 65 and over (506 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Yarragon is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarragon's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Yarragon, comprising 44.9% of the population. Notably, Judaism was not present in Yarragon's population, compared to Regional Vic's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.5%), English (33.3%), and Scottish (8.6%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Dutch at 2.4% in Yarragon versus 1.7% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% versus 0.2%, and Maltese at 0.7% versus 0.5%.

Yarragon hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Yarragon's median age is 43, matching Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 14.2%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 9.2% compared to Regional Vic.. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.7% to 8.3%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 12.9% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 15.3% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Yarragon's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 group is expected to grow by 33%, reaching 389 people from 292 currently. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 cohorts.