Yarragon

Population growth drivers in Yarragon are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the population of the suburb of Yarragon is estimated to be around 2,059. This figure reflects an increase of 166 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,893. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,876 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 30 persons per square kilometer. Yarragon's growth rate of 8.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 8.1%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 46.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors. AreaSearch's projections for Yarragon are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made through a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 326 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 9.8% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Yarragon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Yarragon has experienced around 4 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 21 homes. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 5.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. This substantial lag between supply and demand indicates heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $460,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In this financial year, $700,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of Vic., Yarragon shows substantially reduced construction activity (80.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. However, construction activity has intensified recently. Nationally, this activity is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New building activity shows 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 98.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 349 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Yarragon is expected to grow by 201 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Yarragon has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch may influence the area's performance: The Range Estate, Trafalgar Road Network Repairs, Trafalgar Structure Plan, and Gippsland Odyssey Trail (Trafalgar Section). These are detailed below as they are likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Yarragon significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Yarragon has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of September 2025.

Employment grew by an estimated 4.6% over the previous year. This growth rate is higher than Rest of Vic.'s decrease of 0.7%. As of September 2025988 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 1.5%, lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was 65.2%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

About 18.8% of residents worked from home, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. Construction had a particularly high employment share at 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, accommodation & food employed only 5.2% of local workers, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 6.9%. Employment opportunities in Yarragon might be limited locally, as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, while labour force grew by 4.1%. This led to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.7% during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Yarragon's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years. However, these projections are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for local population changes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

In financial year 2023, Yarragon suburb had median taxpayer income of $47,998 and average income of $61,456. These figures are below the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) in Rest of Vic. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%, estimated median income is approximately $51,958 and average income is around $66,526. Census 2021 data indicates modest rankings for household, family, and personal incomes in Yarragon, between the 25th and 30th percentiles. Income distribution shows 29.6% (609 individuals) earning between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the regional average of 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains, ranking at the 28th percentile nationally. Yarragon's SEIFA income ranking is in the 4th decile.

Yarragon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Yarragon's housing structure, as assessed in the latest Census, consisted of 97.9% houses and 2.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarragon stood at 44.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.8% and rented ones at 15.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Yarragon was $320, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Yarragon's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $320 compared to the national figure of $375.

Yarragon has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 71.2% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.8%, made up of 27.9% lone person households and 1.1% group households. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the Rest of Vic. average.

Educational outcomes in Yarragon fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.7% and certificates at 30.4%. Educational participation is high, with 25.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates three active public transport stops in Yarragon, offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by thirteen different routes, collectively facilitating 323 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 701 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most residents commute outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 18.8% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 46 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 107 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarragon is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarragon faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population, which is around 1,053 people. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9 and 9.2% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 63.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling around 504 people. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Yarragon is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarragon has a cultural diversity level below average, with 87.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Yarragon, comprising 44.9% of the population. Notably, Judaism is not represented in Yarragon's population, compared to a 0.1% regional average.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (33.5%), English (33.3%), and Scottish (8.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Dutch representation is higher at 2.4% in Yarragon compared to the regional 1.7%, Hungarian is at 0.4% versus a regional 0.2%, and Maltese is at 0.7% compared to the region's 0.5%.

Yarragon hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Yarragon's median age is 43, matching Rest of Vic.'s figure and exceeding Australia's average by five years. Notably, individuals aged 25-34 comprise 14.3% of Yarragon's population, a higher proportion than the 9.2% seen in the 45-54 age group. Comparing Census data from 2021 to earlier figures, the 75-84 age bracket has grown from 6.7% to 8.3%, while the 25-34 cohort has increased from 12.9% to 14.3%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 15.3% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Yarragon's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 36%, reaching 399 individuals from its current count of 294. Conversely, population declines are anticipated for both the 5-14 and 55-64 age cohorts.