Warragul

Warragul lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Warragul is around 23,608, showing an increase of 3,752 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents an 18.9% rise from the previous population figure of 19,856. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 21,358 in June 2024 and 865 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 426 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's growth rate exceeded both the Rest of Vic (8.1%) and the national average during this period, making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70% to overall population gains, with all drivers being positive factors. Based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, AreaSearch forecasts significant population increase for Warragul by 2041.

The suburb is expected to gain an additional 6,472 persons by then, reflecting a total growth of 17.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Warragul recorded around 258 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1,292 homes. As of FY-26142 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed, indicating healthy demand for property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $422,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $58.4 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warragul has slightly more development, 21.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The location has approximately 89 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Warragul will gain 4,222 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warragul has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones include Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, and Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warragul demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warragul has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.6%. As of December 2025, 10,903 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and a workforce participation rate of 64.2%.

A moderate 16.3% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with the latter having an employment share 1.3 times Regional Vic.'s level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed only 4.4% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data.

Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 5.6% while the labour force grew by 5.4%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasted with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment decreased by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand in Warragul. Applying these projections to Warragul's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Warragul had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $50,449 and the average income stood at $63,426, compared to Regional Vic.'s figures of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. By September 2025, current estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% would be approximately $54,611 (median) and $68,659 (average). From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Warragul ranked modestly, between the 39th and 39th percentiles. Income analysis showed that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 32.5% of residents (7,672 people), aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represented 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.0% of income remained for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. Comparatively, Regional Vic. had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul was 38.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.5% and rented ones at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Warragul was $321, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,625 vs. Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $321 vs. the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.0% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Warragul performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (26.8%). Educational participation is high at 27.6%, with 9.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 85 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 22 routes, collectively facilitating 1,644 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 342 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 94%, with an average of 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 16.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 234 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warragul is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warragul faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~12,259 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 10.1 and 9.8% of residents respectively. However, 63.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.3% of residents aged 65 and over (4,792 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul, surveyed in 2016, had a low cultural diversity with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.4%. Judaism, however, showed an overrepresentation at 0.1%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.1%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (31.4%), Australian (29.0%), and Scottish (8.9%). Notably, Dutch (2.5% vs regional 1.7%), Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.2%), and Irish (8.8% vs regional 9.7%) had divergent representations compared to Regional Vic.

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 39 years, which is significantly below Regional Victoria's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Regional Victoria, Warragul has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (15.3%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the population of Warragul in the age group 25 to 34 grew from 13.5% to 15.3%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.6% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.0% to 10.5%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 12.0% to 10.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Warragul's age structure. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 36%, adding 1,285 people and reaching a total of 4,898 from the current figure of 3,612. Meanwhile, the 75 to 84 cohort is expected to remain unchanged with no growth in population (0%).