Warragul

Warragul lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Warragul's population, as estimated by AreaSearch using ABS updates and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, was around 22,235 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 2,379 people (12.0%) from the 2021 Census population of 19,856. The estimated resident population of 21,365, based on AreaSearch's examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, and an additional 861 validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates a population density ratio of 401 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's growth rate exceeded that of the non-metro area (6.0%) and its SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of national regional areas, with Warragul expected to expand by 6,437 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall gain of 25.6% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warragul recorded approximately 253 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 1,266 homes. By FY-26, 88 approvals have been recorded so far. On average, 2.5 people moved to the area annually for each new home constructed during this period, indicating strong demand which supports property values.

The average construction cost of these new homes was $422,000, aligning with regional trends. In FY-26, Warragul has registered $69.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warragul has seen slightly more development, at 18.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area.

New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Warragul's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 93 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Warragul will gain 5,680 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warragul has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, and Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Warragul has been broadly consistent with national averages

Warragul has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.9%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, there are 10,381 employed residents in Warragul, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% below Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area specializes in education & training, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 4.4% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. From Jun-24 to Jul-25, Warragul's labour force decreased by 0.7%, while employment fell by 1.2%, increasing unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. Comparatively, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.9% and labour force decrease by 0.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's Sep-22 national employment forecasts project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warragul's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.4% in five years and 13.5% in ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2022 shows median income in Warragul was $50,449 and average income was $63,426. This is lower than the national averages of $51,877 (median) and $70,555 (average). In Rest of Vic., median income was $48,741 and average income was $60,693. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,584 (median) and $71,139 (average), accounting for a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since June 2022. According to Census 2021 data, income ranks modestly in Warragul, with household, family and personal incomes all between the 39th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets show that 32.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999 annually, mirroring the regional average of 30.3%. After housing expenses, 86.0% of income remains for other expenses. Warragul's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul stood at 38.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.5% and rented ones at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, above Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent in Warragul was $321, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,625 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 71.0% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Warragul performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Warragul faces educational challenges with university qualification rates at 23.2%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 26.8%. Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.4% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education. Warragul operates a network of 10 schools educating approximately 5,126 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1014) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 4 primary, 3 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 23.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.8, indicating Warragul serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 91 active public transport stops operating, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 31 individual routes, collectively providing 1,657 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 340 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 236 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warragul is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warragul faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 52%, which is higher than the average SA2 area (~11,546 people). Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 10.1% and 9.8% of residents respectively. About 63.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.7% in Rest of Vic. As of 2016, 20.5% of Warragul's population is aged 65 and over (4,558 people). The health outcomes among seniors are broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 85.3% born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 92.8% speaking English only at home as of the 2016 Census. Christianity was the primary religion, making up 46.4%. Judaism, however, was similarly represented at 0.1%, matching the regional average.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.4%), Australian (29.0%), and Scottish (8.9%). Notably, Dutch representation was slightly higher in Warragul at 2.5% compared to 2.7% regionally, Hungarian was at 0.4% versus 0.3%, and Irish was at 8.8% compared to 8.5%.

Warragul's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but closely aligns with Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warragul has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the percentage of Warragul's population in the 25-34 age group increased from 13.5% to 14.8%, while the 35-44 age group rose from 11.6% to 12.9%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group decreased from 12.0% to 10.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Warragul's age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 49%, adding 1,615 people and reaching a total of 4,906 from the current figure of 3,290. Meanwhile, the 75-84 age group is expected to grow modestly by 3% (47 people).