Warragul

Warragul lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warragul is around 22,282. This figure represents an increase of 2,426 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,856. The latest estimate of 22,186 residents was derived from AreaSearch's examination of the June 2025 ABS ERP data release and validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 402 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's growth rate of 12.2% since the 2021 census exceeds the Rest of Vic.'s 4.3%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70.0% to recent population gains, with all drivers being positive factors. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by this data.

By 2041, the suburb is forecast to have an additional 6,053 persons, reflecting a total gain of 26.7% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Warragul recorded around 258 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 1,292 homes. In FY-26, so far 203 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.5 people moved to the area per new home constructed, indicating healthy demand for property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $422,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year, $58.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warragul has slightly more development, at 20.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period, preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This is well above national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area.

New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Warragul's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 89 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Warragul will gain 5,957 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warragul has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 24 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, and Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warragul demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warragul has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.7% and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 6.1% in the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 11,120 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation stands at 63.0%, slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. A moderate 16.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Warragul has a particular specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 4.4% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 6.1% alongside labour force increasing by 5.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Warragul. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warragul's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Warragul had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Warragul was $50,449 and the average income stood at $63,426. These figures compared to Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimates for March 2026 would be approximately $55,302 (median) and $69,528 (average). The 2021 Census ranked Warragul's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 39th and 39th percentiles. Income analysis showed that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 32.5% of residents (7,241 people), aligning with the region where this cohort represented 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.0% of income remained for other expenses, and Warragul's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structure in the latest Census comprised 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. In Regional Vic., it was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul stood at 38.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.5% and rented ones at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430. The median weekly rent in Warragul was $321, against Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,625 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $321 compared to the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.0% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households at 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Warragul performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (26.8%). Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.4% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 85 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 22 different routes, collectively facilitating 1,644 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located 342 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Warragul's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 94%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.5 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, some 16.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 234 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warragul is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warragul faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~11,571 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues impact 10.1% of residents, while arthritis affects 9.8%. A total of 63.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.7% of residents aged 65 and over (4,612 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul had a cultural diversity below average, with 85.3% born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 46.4%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.1%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (31.4%), Australian (29.0%), and Scottish (8.9%). Notably, Dutch (2.5%) and Hungarian (0.4%) were overrepresented, while Irish was underrepresented at 8.8% compared to Regional Vic's 9.7%.

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but closely aligns with Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Regional Vic., Warragul has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 11.6% to 13.3%, while the 25-34 age group increased from 13.5% to 14.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 12.0% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Warragul's age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 45%, adding 1,474 people and reaching a total of 4,728 from the current 3,253. Meanwhile, the 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow modestly by 8%, adding 132 people.