Warragul

Warragul lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census Warragul's population is estimated at around 23,605 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 3,749 people (18.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,856 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 21,358 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 861 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 426 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. The Warragul statistical area (Lv2)'s 18.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area's 7.9%, along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national regional areas is forecast, with the Warragul (SA2) expected to expand by 6,503 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an anticipated gain of 18.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Warragul recorded approximately 258 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 1,292 homes. As of FY-26124 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating healthy demand for property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $422,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $58.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warragul has slightly more development, 20.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, offering reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This is well above national averages, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area.

New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 89 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Warragul will gain 4,376 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warragul has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can be significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 25 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, and Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warragul demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warragul has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.8%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.4% over the past year.

There are 10,838 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with a particular specialization in education & training at 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 4.4% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data analysis. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, while the labour force grew by 4.3%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment contract by 0.7% and unemployment rise marginally. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warragul's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Warragul's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Warragul is $50,449 and the average income stands at $63,426. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $54,611 (median) and $68,659 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in 2021, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Warragul, between the 39th and 39th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 32.5% of residents (7,671 people), aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represents 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.0% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul stood at 38.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.5% and rented ones at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, exceeding Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent in Warragul was $321, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,625 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 71.0% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.0%, consisting of 26.7% lone person households and 2.3% group households. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Warragul performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (26.8%). Educational participation is high at 27.6%, comprising primary education (9.4%), secondary education (8.0%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 85 active public transport stops, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 22 individual routes that collectively facilitate 1,644 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Warragul is rated as good, with residents typically located 342 meters from their nearest transport stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 234 trips per day, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warragul is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warragul faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions. The proportion of residents with private health cover is approximately 52%, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues affect 10.1% of Warragul's population, while arthritis impacts 9.8%. Conversely, 63.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.7% in the rest of Victoria. As of 2016, 20.5% of Warragul's population is aged 65 and over, comprising 4,839 people. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul's population showed low cultural diversity, with 85.3% born in Australia and 90.0% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 92.8%. Christianity was the predominant religion at 46.4%.

Judaism, at 0.1%, was slightly overrepresented compared to the Rest of Vic's 0.1%. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.4%), Australian (29.0%), and Scottish (8.9%). Dutch (2.5%) and Hungarian (0.4%) showed notable overrepresentation, while Irish (8.8%) was slightly higher than the regional average of 8.5%.

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 39 years, which is notably lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but closely matches Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warragul has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (14.8%) but fewer individuals aged 65-74 (10.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 11.6% to 13.0%, while the 25-34 age group increased from 13.5% to 14.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group decreased from 12.0% to 10.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Warragul's age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 41%, reaching 4,918 people from the current 3,493. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 75-84 age groups are expected to experience population declines.