Warragul

Warragul lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Warragul is estimated at around 23,608, reflecting an increase of 3,752 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 19,856 in the suburb. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 21,358 following examination of ABS data released June 2024 and an additional 865 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 426 persons per square kilometer. Warragul's growth rate of 18.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both Rest of Vic. (8.1%) and national averages, indicating significant growth in the suburb. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by ABS data. Future population dynamics forecast significant growth in the top quartile of national regional areas, with Warragul expected to expand by 6,531 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 18.6% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Warragul was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warragul recorded approximately 258 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1,292 homes. As of FY-26124 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating healthy demand for properties. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $422,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This year, $58.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warragul has slightly more development, 20.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This is well above the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The location has approximately 89 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Warragul will gain 4,396 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warragul has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include Alfred Street Mixed-Use Redevelopment, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Emberwood Estate - Stage 11, and Princes Highway East Upgrade - Warragul Section. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warragul demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warragul has a skilled workforce with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, seeing an estimated 4.3% employment growth. As of September 2025, 10,826 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation was 64.1%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. A moderate 16.3% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with a notable specialization in the latter (1.3 times the regional level). Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 4.4% locally, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

Employment opportunities may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.3%, matching labour force growth and keeping unemployment stable at 1.0%. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7% and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warragul's industry mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.4% in five years and 13.5% in ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation and does not account for localized population changes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Warragul had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ending June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Warragul was $50,449, with an average income of $63,426. These figures compared to those for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since the financial year ending June 2023, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $54,611 and the average income $68,659 by September 2025. The 2021 Census indicated that household, family, and personal incomes in Warragul ranked modestly, between the 39th and 39th percentiles. Income analysis showed that the majority of residents (7,672 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, representing 32.5% of the population, similar to the regional trend where this cohort also represented 30.3%. After housing expenses, 86.0% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Warragul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Warragul's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic., in comparison, had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warragul was at 38.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.5% and rented ones at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Warragul was $321, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warragul's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,625 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warragul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.0% of all households, including 29.1% that are couples with children, 30.0% consisting of couples without children, and 11.2% composed of single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households making up 26.7% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Warragul performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (26.8%). Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.4% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warragul has 85 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 22 routes that facilitate 1,644 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living within 342 meters of the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode at 94%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 16.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 234 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warragul is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warragul faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~12,259 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, impacting 10.1 and 9.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 63.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,768 people), lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Warragul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warragul's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 85.3% born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 46.4%. Judaism was slightly overrepresented, at 0.1% compared to 0.1% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.4%), Australian (29.0%), and Scottish (8.9%). Notable differences existed for Dutch (2.5% vs regional 1.7%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.2%), and Irish (8.8% vs 9.7%).

Warragul's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warragul is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warragul has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (15.3%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 increased from 13.5% to 15.3%, while those aged 35-44 increased from 11.6% to 13.3%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 45-54 decreased from 12.0% to 10.5%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Warragul's age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 36%, adding 1,302 people and reaching a total of 4,915 from the current 3,612. Meanwhile, the 15-24 age cohort is expected to grow by a modest 0% (an increase of just 2 people).