Trafalgar (Vic.)
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Trafalgar are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Trafalgar's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 8,677. This figure reflects a growth of 309 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,368. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates; in June 2024, the estimated resident population was 8,596, with an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 17.3 persons per square kilometer. Trafalgar's growth rate of 3.7% since the census is within 1.8 percentage points of the non-metro area's 5.5%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 46.2% to recent population gains, with all factors including natural growth and overseas migration being positive.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Demographic trends project an above median population growth for locations outside capital cities. By 2041, Trafalgar's population is expected to increase by 1,470 persons, reflecting a total increase of 15.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Trafalgar recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Trafalgar has seen approximately 67 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 339 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, with 4 approvals so far in FY26. On average, 2.0 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years. This suggests a balanced supply and demand dynamic, with new properties constructed at an average value of $460,000.

In this financial year, $8.5 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Trafalgar has significantly less development activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 69.0% detached dwellings and 31.0% attached dwellings, offering a mix of medium-density options and price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 96.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Trafalgar is 438 people, indicating its quiet development environment. Looking ahead, Trafalgar is projected to grow by 1,382 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Trafalgar has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Strategic Extractive Resource Areas (Trafalgar), The Range Estate, Trafalgar Road Network Repairs, and Trafalgar Structure Plan. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Trafalgar demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Trafalgar Vic. has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, unemployment rate of 2.8% as of June 2025.

There are 4,235 residents employed, with unemployment rate at 1.0% below Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, construction. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times regional average.

Health care & social assistance has limited presence at 14.7% compared to regional 16.8%. Limited local employment opportunities indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Labour force decreased by 0.7%, employment decreased by 0.9% in year to June 2025, unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, labour force fell by 0.4%, unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National rate is 4.5%, with state's employment growth outpacing national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Trafalgar's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Trafalgar has a median taxpayer income of $48,673 and an average income of $62,320 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $48,741 and average income being $60,693. As of March 2025, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $53,594 and the average income would be around $68,621, factoring in a Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Trafalgar rank modestly, with household, family, and personal incomes all falling between the 33rd and 33rd percentiles. Income distribution data shows that the predominant cohort consists of 31.4% of locals (2,724 people) earning between $1,500 - 2,999 per week, which is similar to the surrounding region where 30.3% fall into this bracket. Housing costs in Trafalgar are manageable, with 87.3% retained after deductions. However, disposable income sits below average at the 37th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Trafalgar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluation of dwelling structures in Trafalgar showed 96.0% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Trafalgar was at 44.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.9% and rented ones at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent figure in Trafalgar was $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Trafalgar's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $300.

Trafalgar has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 26.4% and group households making up 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.5.

Trafalgar shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This gap presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.2% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 30.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education. Seven schools operate within Trafalgar, educating approximately 1,434 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 992) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with five primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Trafalgar has eight operational public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by twenty different routes that collectively facilitate 420 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to these transports is rated as limited, with an average distance of 1171 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages sixty trips per day, which translates to approximately fifty-two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Trafalgar is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Trafalgar faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population, which totals around 4,433 people, slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9% and 8.7% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 64.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 24.2% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling around 2,096 people, which is higher than the 20.8% in Rest of Vic..

Trafalgar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Trafalgar had a cultural diversity index of 59.1, with 90.8% citizens, 88.8% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home as of the 2016 Census. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 43.5% of Trafalgar's population identifying with it, compared to 45.3% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.7%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.6%).

Notably, Dutch (2.4%) and Maltese (0.8%) were overrepresented in Trafalgar compared to regional averages of 2.7% and 0.4%, respectively, while Italian was slightly higher at 3.7% versus the regional average of 2.7%.

Trafalgar hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Trafalgar is 43, matching the figure for the Rest of Vic. and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that individuals aged 65-74 are notably prominent at 13.8%, while those aged 55-64 comprise a smaller proportion at 12.2% compared to the Rest of Vic.. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.5% to 7.9%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has grown from 10.8% to 11.9%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.2%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 13.2% to 11.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Trafalgar's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 48%, reaching 1,533 people from its current total of 1,034. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age cohorts.