Trafalgar (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Trafalgar are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Trafalgar's population was 8,368 people according to the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it had increased to around 8,690, reflecting a growth of 322 people (3.8%) since the census. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,594 in June 2024 and an additional 81 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was 17.3 persons per square kilometer. Trafalgar's growth rate of 3.8% since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of the non-metro area's growth rate of 6.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 46.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods to reach SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Trafalgar is projected to expand by 1,470 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 15.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Trafalgar recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Trafalgar has seen approximately 47 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 239 homes were approved, with an additional seven approved so far in FY26. On average, about two people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years.

This has resulted in a balanced supply and demand dynamic, creating stable market conditions. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $199,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In terms of commercial development, $8.5 million worth of approvals have been registered this financial year, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Trafalgar has about half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person compared to the Rest of Vic., and it ranks in the 39th percentile nationally for areas assessed, suggesting more limited housing choices for buyers.

The current development mix consists of 69% detached dwellings and 31% attached dwellings, showing an increase in medium-density options compared to the previous mix of 96% houses. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population density per dwelling approval is 438 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Trafalgar is expected to grow by approximately 1,369 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-suited to meet future needs, supporting steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Trafalgar has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area's performance is significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 20 such projects expected to impact the area. Notable projects include The Range Estate, Trafalgar Road Network Repairs, Trafalgar Structure Plan, and Gippsland Odyssey Trail (Trafalgar Section). Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Trafalgar shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Trafalgar has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 2.6% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.6%. As of that date, 4,370 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Trafalgar was broadly similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and construction.

Notably, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a high concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence with 14.7% employment compared to 16.8% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, labour force increased by 4.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment fall by 0.7%, labour force contract by 0.6%, and unemployment rise marginally. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Trafalgar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Trafalgar SA2 was $48,673 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. The average income was $62,320. These figures are lower than national averages, with Rest of Vic.'s median being $48,741 and average at $60,693. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $54,592 and average $69,898, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census ranked incomes in Trafalgar modestly, with household, family, and personal incomes all between the 32nd and 32nd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 31.4% of locals (2,728 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the surrounding region at 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 87.3% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 36th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Trafalgar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Trafalgar, as per the latest Census evaluation, 96.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 4.1% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Trafalgar stood at 44.3%, with mortgaged properties making up 38.9% and rented dwellings accounting for 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent figure in Trafalgar was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Trafalgar's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Trafalgar has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 26.4% and group households making up 1.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.5.

Trafalgar shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 30.1%. Educational participation is high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.7% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Trafalgar has eight active public transport stops, serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are served by 20 individual routes, offering a total of 420 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents living an average of 1171 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 60 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Trafalgar is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Trafalgar faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population (~4,440 people), slightly lagging that of the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9% and 8.7% of residents respectively. A total of 64.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 24.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,099 people), which is higher than the 20.8% in Rest of Vic..

Trafalgar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Trafalgar's population showed low cultural diversity with 90.8% citizens, 88.8% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 43.5%, compared to 45.3% regionally. Ancestral groups showed Australian (32.7%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.6%) as top representations.

Dutch (2.4% vs regional 2.7%), Maltese (0.8% vs 0.4%), and Italian (3.7% vs 2.7%) showed notable differences in representation compared to the region.

Trafalgar's median age exceeds the national pattern

Trafalgar's median age is 43, matching the figure for the Rest of Vic. and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 65-74 are notably prominent at 13.8%, while the 55-64 group is comparatively smaller at 12.2% than in the Rest of Vic.. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.5% to 7.9% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 10.8% to 11.9%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.2%, and the 5 to 14 group has fallen from 13.2% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Trafalgar's age structure. The 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 48% (497 people), reaching 1,533 from its current figure of 1,035. Conversely, population declines are anticipated for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts.