Moe

Population growth drivers in Moe are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since Feb 2026, the estimated population of Moe is around 9,925. This reflects an increase of 550 people (5.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,375 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,485 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 420 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 546 persons per square kilometer. Moe's growth since census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (7.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 55.00000000000001% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward, an above median population growth is projected for national non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb expected to grow by 1,849 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 14.2% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Moe when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Moe has seen approximately 60 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 301 homes. In the current financial year FY-26, 38 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years is 0.9.

New construction in Moe appears to be matching or outpacing demand, providing buyers with more options and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current expectations. The average value of new homes being built is $368,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, there have been $9.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Moe shows moderately higher development activity, with a 19.0% increase per person over the five-year period. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Recent construction comprises 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 154 people per dwelling approval, Moe exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Moe's population to grow by 1,409 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Moe has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These key projects are North Quarter, Narracan Drive Redevelopment, M1 Business Park, and Turras Reach (Narracan Lakes).

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Moe faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Moe's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.1% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 7.0%. As of December 2025, 3,721 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate stood at 5.4%, exceeding Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Moe was 51.1%, significantly lower than Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, only 10.6% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, electricity, gas, water & waste services had employment levels at 3.0 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 2.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census population data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 7.0%, while the labour force grew by 4.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.9 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw employment decline by 0.6% and labour force decline by 0.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Moe's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Moe, median income is $42,971 and average income is $52,337. This is below Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Moe would be approximately $46,516 (median) and $56,655 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Moe all fall between the 1st and 6th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 33.0% of residents earn between $400 - $799 weekly (3,275 individuals), contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. Lower income households are prevalent in Moe, with 45.1% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. After housing costs, 85.3% of income remains, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Moe is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Moe, as per the latest Census, 80.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 20.0% being other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is compared to Regional Vic., where 90.1% of dwellings are houses and 9.9% are other types. Home ownership in Moe stood at 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.9% and rented ones at 35.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,000, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Moe was $200, significantly lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, Moe's mortgage repayments were substantially below the Australian average of $1,863.

Moe features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 53.7% of all households, including 16.5% couples with children, 21.9% couples without children, and 14.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 46.3%, comprising 43.2% lone person households and 3.2% group households. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Moe faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives in the region. Bachelor degrees are the most common type of university qualification, with 7.5% of residents holding one. Postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas follow, at 1.6% and 1.5% respectively.

Vocational credentials are prominent among residents aged 15 and above, with 42.3% holding such qualifications. Advanced diplomas account for 9.4%, while certificates make up 32.9%. Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Moe has 60 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 33 routes, collectively facilitating 1,606 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 168 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Moe's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, lower than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 10.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 229 trips per day, equating to about 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Moe is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Moe faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at 48% (~4,725 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are most common, impacting 11.8% and 11.5% respectively, while 53.9% report no medical ailments, lower than Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age residents have high chronic condition rates. Seniors comprise 24.9% (2,471 people), with health outcomes broadly aligning with national rankings.

Moe ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Moe had a lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 87.2% of its population being citizens and 84.2% born in Australia. Most residents spoke English only at home, at 93.0%. Christianity was the dominant religion, making up 46.5% of Moe's population.

While Judaism comprised just 0.1%, this was an overrepresentation compared to Regional Vic's 0.1%. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (30.7%), English (29.7%), and Scottish (7.8%). Notably, Dutch (2.9%) Maltese (2.1%), and Polish (0.9%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Moe compared to regional averages of 1.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively.

Moe hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Moe's median age of 45 years is modestly higher than Regional Vic.'s 43 years, which is considerably older than the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, Moe has a notably over-represented cohort of 25-34 year-olds (13.7% locally) and an under-represented cohort of 45-54 year-olds (10.2%). Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.3% to 12.1%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 12.3% to 13.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 11.8% to 10.2% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Moe's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to expand notably, increasing by 508 people (37%) from 1,359 to 1,868. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65 to 74 and 55 to 64 cohorts.