Mount Baw Baw Region
Statistical Area - sa2

Mount Baw Baw Region has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Mount Baw Baw Region's population is approximately 6,842 as of Aug 2025. This figure shows an increase of 257 people from the 2021 Census total of 6,585, representing a 3.9% growth rate. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 6,742 in June 2024 and 38 additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2.5 persons per square kilometer. Mount Baw Baw Region's growth rate compares favourably with non-metro areas, being within 1.6 percentage points (3.9% vs 5.5%). The primary driver for population growth was interstate migration, contributing approximately 59.3%.

Other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also played positive roles. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas. For uncovers areas, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a lower quartile growth rate for regional areas nationally, with Mount Baw Baw Region expected to increase by 204 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 1.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mount Baw Baw Region recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mount Baw Baw Region has received approximately 28 dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that between FY-21 and FY-25, the region totalled 141 approvals, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26. On average, about 2.7 people have moved to the area annually for each new home constructed over the past five financial years. This indicates strong demand supporting property values.

The average construction cost of new homes is $684,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Commercial approvals this year amount to $6.8 million, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to other Victorian regions. Mount Baw Baw Region shows reduced construction activity (60.0% below regional average per person), supporting stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent development has been exclusively detached dwellings, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population count of 392 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate a gain of 103 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Mount Baw Baw Region has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 59 infrastructure projects that could impact the area's performance. Key projects include Warragul Sewer Main Upgrade - North East Growth Corridor, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Dollarburn Road Extension, and The Saleyards.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Mount Baw Baw Region exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Mount Baw Baw Region's workforce is skilled, with notable representation in construction. The unemployment rate here was 2.3% as of June 2025.

In this period, 3,473 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.4% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation matched Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, construction, and health care & social assistance. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs twice the regional average share here.

However, health care & social assistance employs just 12.4%, below Rest of Vic.'s 16.8%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as Census working population versus resident population indicates. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.8% while employment declined by 1.1%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.9%, labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. State-wide, VIC's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year to Sep-25, adding 39,880 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Baw Baw Region's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.8% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Mount Baw Baw Region had a median taxpayer income of $46,232 and an average of $60,358. These figures are below the national averages of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively for Rest of Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $50,906 and $66,460 respectively. Census data indicates Mount Baw Baw Region ranks modestly for household, family, and personal incomes, between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. Income distribution shows 30.6% (2,093 individuals) earn between $1,500 - $2,999, consistent with broader regional trends of 30.3%. Housing costs allow for retention of 89.0%, but disposable income is below average at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mount Baw Baw Region is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mount Baw Baw Region, as per the latest Census, 97.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 2.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic., where 91.6% were houses and 8.4% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Baw Baw Region stood at 51.6%, with mortgaged properties at 38.8% and rented ones at 9.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. Median weekly rent in the region was $250, compared to $320 in Non-Metro Vic. Nationally, Mount Baw Baw Region's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower at $1,863 and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mount Baw Baw Region has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 73.7% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 24.7% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, matching the average for the Rest of Vic.

Mount Baw Baw Region shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has lower university qualification rates at 19.6%, compared to the VIC average of 33.4%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (31.5%).

Educational participation is high at 28.0%, including primary education (10.1%), secondary education (8.9%), and tertiary education (2.8%). The Mount Baw Baw Region operates a network of 10 schools educating approximately 602 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 981) and balanced educational opportunities. There are 8 primary and 2 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. However, limited local school capacity (8.8 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 18.9) results in many families traveling to nearby areas for schooling. Note that where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mount Baw Baw Region has 13 active public transport stops in operation. One route services these stops, offering a total of 20 weekly passenger trips. The region's transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically residing 9504 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 2 trips per day, which equates to approximately 1 weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Mount Baw Baw Region is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

The Mount Baw Baw Region faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,421 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5 and 8.4% of residents respectively, while 65.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Rest of Vic.. As of 2021, 24.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,674 people), which is higher than the 20.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors in the region perform even better than the general population in health metrics.

Mount Baw Baw Region is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Baw Baw Region had a cultural diversity below average, with 89.7% of its population being citizens and 89.5% born in Australia. English was spoken by 96.7% at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.9%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Rest of Vic's 0.1%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.9%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.3%). Notably, Dutch (2.9%) and Maltese (0.6%) were overrepresented, while Irish (9.2%) was slightly above regional average (8.5%).

Mount Baw Baw Region hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Mount Baw Baw Region's median age is 47 years, significantly higher than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 55-64 make up a prominent group (15.4%), while those aged 25-34 are comparatively smaller (9.5%) than in Rest of Vic. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of individuals aged 25-34 has grown from 8.7% to 9.5%. Conversely, the proportions of individuals aged 55-64 have declined from 17.2% to 15.4%, and those aged 45-54 have dropped from 13.3% to 11.7%. By 2041, Mount Baw Baw Region is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 36%, increasing from 647 to 882 individuals. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.