Mount Baw Baw Region

Mount Baw Baw Region has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mount Baw Baw Region's population is around 7,003 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 418 people (6.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,585 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,741 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 46 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2.5 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Mount Baw Baw Region's 6.3% growth since the census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the Rest of Vic. (8.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 59.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of Australia's regional areas is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 204 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a decline of 0.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mount Baw Baw Region recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mount Baw Baw Region has experienced around 28 dwellings receiving development approval annually, with 141 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 12 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.7 new residents per year for each dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $376,000—somewhat higher than regional norms—reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, $6.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Mount Baw Baw Region shows substantially reduced construction (60.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Further, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 392 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Mount Baw Baw Region should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Mount Baw Baw Region has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 58 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Warragul Sewer Main Upgrade - North East Growth Corridor, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Dollarburn Road Extension, and The Saleyards, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Mount Baw Baw Region positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Mount Baw Baw Region features a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.1%, and 5.5% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,614 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.6% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (65.7% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 22.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, construction, and health care & social assistance. The area shows particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 12.4% versus the regional average of 16.8%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.5% and labour force increased by 5.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Mount Baw Baw Region. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mount Baw Baw Region's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Mount Baw Baw Region SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,766 with the average level standing at $64,024. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,789 (median) and $69,306 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Mount Baw Baw Region, between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. The data shows the largest segment comprises 30.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,142 residents), reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 89.0% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 39th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mount Baw Baw Region is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Mount Baw Baw Region, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 97.9% houses and 2.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Mount Baw Baw Region was well beyond that of Regional Vic., at 51.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (38.8%) or rented (9.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional Vic. average at $1,517, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $250, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Mount Baw Baw Region's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mount Baw Baw Region has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 73.7% of all households, comprising 29.9% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 24.7% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Mount Baw Baw Region shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (19.6%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (31.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

The level of general health in Mount Baw Baw Region is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

The Mount Baw Baw Region demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show a low prevalence of common health conditions, while the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,536 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5% and 8.4% of residents, respectively, while 65.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 24.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,710 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

Mount Baw Baw Region is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

The Mount Baw Baw Region was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 89.7% of its population being citizens, 89.5% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. The main religion in the Mount Baw Baw Region is Christianity, which makes up 43.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in the Mount Baw Baw Region are Australian, comprising 32.9% of the population, English, comprising 31.5% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 9.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.9% of the Mount Baw Baw Region (vs 1.7% regionally), Maltese at 0.6% (vs 0.5%) and Irish at 9.2% (vs 9.7%).

Mount Baw Baw Region hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 47 years, Mount Baw Baw Region's median age is significantly above the Regional Vic. average of 43 as well as substantially exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 55 - 64 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.0%), while the 35 - 44 group is comparatively smaller (11.2%) than in Regional Vic.. In the period since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.2% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 17.2% to 15.0% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.3% to 11.4%. By 2041, Mount Baw Baw Region is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 23% (167 people), reaching 882 from 714. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.