Mount Baw Baw Region
Statistical Area - sa2

Mount Baw Baw Region has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Mount Baw Baw Region's population is around 6,851 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 266 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,585 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,741 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 42 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2.5 persons per square kilometer. Mount Baw Baw Region's growth rate of 4.0% since census positions it within 2.0 percentage points of the non-metro area (6.0%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 59.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth nationally, with the area expected to increase by 204 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 1.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mount Baw Baw Region recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mount Baw Baw Region has received approximately 28 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 141 homes. In FY-26 so far, 9 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 attracted an average of 2.7 new residents annually. The average construction cost for these dwellings was $376,000.

This financial year has seen $6.8 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting the region's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Mount Baw Baw Region records significantly lower building activity, 60.0% below the regional average per person. All new construction since FY-21 has been standalone homes, preserving the area's low density character and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count is 392 people per dwelling approval.

Population forecasts indicate a gain of 94 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Mount Baw Baw Region has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 58 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Warragul Sewer Main Upgrade - North East Growth Corridor, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Dollarburn Road Extension, and The Saleyards. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Mount Baw Baw Region exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Mount Baw Baw Region has a skilled workforce with a notable construction sector. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.3%.

The region's unemployment rate is 1.4% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and its workforce participation is similar at 57.4%. Key employment industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, construction, and health care & social assistance. Agriculture, forestry & fishing shows strong specialization with an employment share twice the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 12.4% compared to the regional average of 16.8%.

The area may have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by a decrease in labour force and employment over the past year, leading to a rise in unemployment rate. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.8% while employment declined by 1.1%, increasing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May 2025, project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Baw Baw Region's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.8% over five years and 12.4% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Mount Baw Baw Region had a median income among taxpayers of $46,232 and an average level of $60,358 in the financial year 2022. These figures are below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic had median and average incomes of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Mount Baw Baw Region would be approximately $51,854 (median) and $67,698 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Mount Baw Baw Region rank modestly between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.6% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,096 residents), which is similar to patterns seen in the broader area where 30.3% occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 89.0% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mount Baw Baw Region is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mount Baw Baw Region's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.9% houses and 2.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Baw Baw Region stood at 51.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.8% and rented ones at 9.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent figure was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Mount Baw Baw Region's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,517 versus the Australian average of $1,863. Rents in the region were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mount Baw Baw Region has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 73.7% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 24.7% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Mount Baw Baw Region shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (31.5%). Educational participation is high at 28.0%, including 10.1% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

The Mount Baw Baw Region operates a network of 10 schools educating approximately 602 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 981) and balanced educational opportunities. Eight primary and two secondary schools serve distinct age groups, but local capacity is limited at 8.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.9, leading many families to travel for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates that there are 13 active public transport stops operating within the Mount Baw Baw Region. These stops are serviced by one individual route, collectively providing 20 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 9504 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages two trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Mount Baw Baw Region is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Mount Baw Baw Region faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,425 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5 and 8.4% of residents respectively, while 65.0% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Rest of Vic.. The region has 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,677 people), which is higher than the 20.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Mount Baw Baw Region is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Baw Baw Region's cultural diversity was below average, with 89.7% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 43.9%. Judaism, at 0.1%, was slightly overrepresented compared to Rest of Vic.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.9%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.3%). Dutch (2.9%) was notably overrepresented, as were Maltese (0.6%) and Irish (9.2%).

Mount Baw Baw Region hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Mount Baw Baw Region's median age is 47 years, significantly higher than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 are particularly prominent at 15.4%, while the 25-34 group is comparatively smaller at 9.5% compared to the Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 8.7% to 9.5% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 17.2% to 15.4%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 13.3% to 11.7%. By 2041, Mount Baw Baw Region is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 25-34 group will grow by 36%, adding 233 people and reaching a total of 882 from 648. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.