Mount Baw Baw Region

Mount Baw Baw Region has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Mount Baw Baw Region's population was around 6,755 as of May 2026. This reflected an increase of 170 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,585 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,750 from the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 54 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 2.5 persons per square kilometer. Mount Baw Baw Region's 2.6% growth since census positioned it within 1.7 percentage points of the Rest of Vic. (4.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 40.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipated lower quartile growth nationally, with the area expected to increase by 130 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 1.9% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mount Baw Baw Region recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mount Baw Baw Region has received approximately 28 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 141 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 attracted around 2.7 new residents annually, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value for new homes is $376,000, which is higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development.

This financial year, the region has seen $6.8 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Mount Baw Baw Region records significantly lower building activity, with 60.0% fewer approvals per person. This limited new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. All new constructions have been standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population count is around 392 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mount Baw Baw Region is forecasted to gain 125 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Mount Baw Baw Region has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 57 projects likely impacting the region. Notable projects include Warragul Sewer Main Upgrade - North East Growth Corridor, 147 Dollarburn Road Residential Development, Dollarburn Road Extension, and The Saleyards. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Mount Baw Baw Region performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

The Mount Baw Baw Region has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 2.1% as of December 2025, lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.5%.

There were 3,614 residents employed while workforce participation was 65.1%, slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. A moderate 22.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, construction, and health care & social assistance. The region has a particularly high concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 2.0 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 12.4% of the workforce compared to Regional Vic.'s 16.8%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison between working population and resident population. In the 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 5.5% while labour force grew by 5.1%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment fell by 0.6%, labour force contracted by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Baw Baw Region's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows that Mount Baw Baw Region SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,766 and an average level of $64,024. This is lower than national averages, which are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively for Regional Vic. Since financial year 2023, the Wage Price Index has grown by 9.62%, meaning current estimates would be approximately $53,457 (median) and $70,183 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Mount Baw Baw Region rank modestly between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 30.6% of the community (2,067 individuals). Housing costs are manageable with 89.0% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mount Baw Baw Region is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mount Baw Baw Region's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 97.9% houses and 2.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Baw Baw Region stood at 51.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.8% and rented ones at 9.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in the area was $250, lower than Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Mount Baw Baw Region's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mount Baw Baw Region has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.7% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for 26.3%, comprising 24.7% lone person households and 1.5% group households. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Mount Baw Baw Region shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (31.5%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

The level of general health in Mount Baw Baw Region is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

The Mount Baw Baw Region exhibits superior health outcomes according to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups display a low incidence of common health issues.

Private health cover is relatively uncommon, with approximately 50% of the total population (~3,411 people) having it, compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.5% of residents) and mental health issues (8.4%), while 65.0% report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age residents have a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The region has a larger proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 25.1%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 23.9% (1,692 people). Health outcomes among the elderly are notably strong, ranking even higher than those of the general population nationally.

Mount Baw Baw Region is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Baw Baw Region had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 89.7% of its population being Australian citizens, 89.5% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.9% of the region's population. Notably, Judaism had a similar representation to the regional average, with 0.1% of Mount Baw Baw Region's population identifying as Jewish.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (32.9%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.3%) were the top three represented groups in Mount Baw Baw Region. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences compared to regional averages: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.9% (regional average: 1.7%), Maltese at 0.6% (regional average: 0.5%), and Irish at 9.2% (regional average: 9.7%).

Mount Baw Baw Region hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Mount Baw Baw Region's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Regional Vic.'s median age of 43 years and higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The region's age profile shows that the 55-64 year-old group is particularly prominent, comprising 15.2% of the population, while the 25-34 year-old group makes up 9.7%. Post-2021 Census data reveals that the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 8.7% to 9.7%, and the 15 to 24 age cohort has increased from 10.4% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 year-old group has declined from 17.2% to 15.2%, and the 45 to 54 year-old group has dropped from 13.3% to 11.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Mount Baw Baw Region's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 25 to 34 age cohort projected to grow steadily, expanding by 178 people (27%) from 656 to 835. In contrast, population declines are projected for both the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 age cohorts.