Moe - Newborough

Moe - Newborough has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Moe - Newborough's population is approximately 18,563 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,272 people, a 7.4% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 17,291. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,538 as of June 2024 and an additional 577 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 176 persons per square kilometer. Moe - Newborough's growth exceeded the SA3 area (5.5%) and non-metro areas, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 54.7% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered SA2 areas, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth in non-metropolitan areas nationally, with the area expected to expand by 3,559 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 13.5% over 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Moe - Newborough when compared nationally

Moe - Newborough has seen approximately 100 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 501 homes were approved, with an additional 39 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 0.8 new residents have arrived per year for each new home over these five financial years.

This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with demand or even exceeding it, providing more options for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $368,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY26, there have been $14.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Moe - Newborough shows comparable construction activity per person, maintaining a market balance consistent with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 86% detached houses and 14% medium and high-density housing, reflecting the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With around 178 people per approval, Moe - Newborough is indicative of a developing area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Moe - Newborough is projected to add 2,508 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Moe - Newborough has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include North Quarter, Narracan Drive Redevelopment, Turras Reach (Narracan Lakes), and Newborough Convenience Centre. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Moe - Newborough face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Moe - Newborough has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 8.0%.

There were 7,084 residents employed at this time, which is 4.2% higher than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was lower at 48.9%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a high specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste services, with an employment share 3.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 2.4%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.7% and employment declined by 1.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Moe - Newborough's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Moe - Newborough SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $46,308. The average income stood at $56,401 during the same period. These figures are lower than Rest of Vic.'s median and average incomes of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated current median income is approximately $51,939, while the average stands at around $63,259. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Moe - Newborough fall between the 4th and 10th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that the largest segment comprises 29.5% earning $400-$799 weekly, with 5,476 residents falling into this category. This differs from broader area patterns where $1,500-$2,999 is the dominant income bracket at 30.3%. In Moe - Newborough, 40.2% earn under $800 per week, indicating significant income constraints that impact local spending patterns. After accounting for housing costs, 86.1% of income remains, ranking at only the 6th percentile nationally.

Moe - Newborough is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Moe - Newborough's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.6% houses and 16.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Moe - Newborough stood at 38.6%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with the rest being mortgaged (30.9%) or rented (30.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,213 and Australia's national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Moe - Newborough was $210, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s $237 and the national average of $375.

Moe - Newborough features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.8% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.2%, with lone person households at 38.4% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Moe - Newborough faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with a rate of 7.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.6% and graduate diplomas also at 1.6%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (33.8%). Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.1%), secondary education (7.4%), and tertiary education (2.4%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Moe - Newborough has 115 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 25 routes that collectively facilitate 1,853 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 195 meters to the nearest stop.

The service operates at a frequency of 264 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Moe - Newborough is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Moe - Newborough faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 48% (~8,910 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 50.2%, and the national average of 55.3%. Common conditions include arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (11.2%), with 56.4% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 60.1%.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.7% (4,401 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 21.2%. Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges to the general population's health profile.

Moe - Newborough ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Moe-Newborough was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 88.9% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (85.6%), and speaking English only at home (93.7%). Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 46.0% of Moe-Newborough's population. While Judaism comprises 0.1% of both Moe-Newborough and Rest of Vic., Dutch ethnicity is notably overrepresented in Moe-Newborough at 3.2%, compared to 2.9% regionally.

Similarly, Maltese (2.6% vs 1.6%) and Polish (0.9% vs 0.7%) ethnicities are also more prevalent in Moe-Newborough than the regional average. The top three ancestry groups in Moe-Newborough are Australian (30.8%), English (30.0%), and Scottish (7.9%).

Moe - Newborough hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Moe - Newborough's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Moe - Newborough has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (13.2%) but fewer residents aged 45-54 (10.6%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 10.5% to 12.0%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.0% to 10.6%, and those aged 55-64 have dropped from 13.9% to 12.9%. By 2041, Moe - Newborough's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 3,436 people from 2,459. Meanwhile, the populations aged 65-74 and 55-64 are expected to decline.