Moe - Newborough

Moe - Newborough has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Moe - Newborough's population is around 18,255 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 964 people (5.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,291 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,513 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 576 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 173 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Moe - Newborough's 5.6% growth since the census positions it within 1.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (7.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 54.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 3,559 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 15.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Moe - Newborough when compared nationally

Moe - Newborough has recorded around 100 residential properties granted approval per year, with 501 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 57 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.8 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $270,000. Additionally, $14.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Relative to the Rest of Vic., Moe - Newborough has similar development levels (per person), preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. Recent construction comprises 86.0% detached dwellings and 14.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. At around 178 people per approval, Moe - Newborough reflects a low density area.

Looking ahead, Moe - Newborough is expected to grow by 2,816 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Moe - Newborough has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include North Quarter, Turras Reach (Narracan Lakes), Narracan Drive Redevelopment, and Newborough Convenience Centre, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Moe - Newborough shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Moe - Newborough has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 7.2%, and 7.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,372 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 3.5% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (54.3% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 10.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste, with an employment share of 3.9 times the regional level. In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 2.4% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 7.0% alongside labour force increasing by 5.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Moe - Newborough. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Moe - Newborough's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Moe - Newborough SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $48,715 while the average income stands at $59,631. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,734 (median) and $64,551 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Moe - Newborough all fall between the 4th and 10th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 29.5% of locals (5,385 people) in the $400 - 799 category, diverging from the metropolitan region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. With 40.2% earning under $800 per week, the district faces considerable income constraints affecting local spending patterns. After housing, 86.1% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 6th percentile nationally.

Moe - Newborough is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Moe - Newborough, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.6% houses and 16.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Moe - Newborough slightly lagged that of Regional Vic., at 38.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.9%) or rented (30.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $1,083, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $210, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Moe - Newborough's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Moe - Newborough features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 58.8% of all households, comprising 20.2% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 41.2%, with lone person households at 38.4% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Moe - Newborough faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (11.1%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 7.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (33.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 113 active transport stops operating within Moe - Newborough, comprising a mix of train services. These stops are serviced by 34 individual routes, collectively providing 1,607 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 195 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 10.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 229 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Moe - Newborough is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Moe-Newborough, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~8,926 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.2% and 11.2% of residents, respectively, while 56.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.4% of residents aged 65 and over (4,275 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Moe - Newborough ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Moe - Newborough was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.9% of its population being citizens, 85.6% born in Australia, and 93.7% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Moe - Newborough is Christianity, which makes up 46.0% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Moe - Newborough are Australian, comprising 30.8% of the population, English, comprising 30.0% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 7.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 3.2% of Moe - Newborough (vs 1.7% regionally), Maltese at 2.6% (vs 0.5%) and Polish at 0.9% (vs 0.5%).

Moe - Newborough hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Moe - Newborough's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional Vic., Moe - Newborough has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (13.7%) but fewer 45 - 54 year-olds (10.3%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.5% to 12.3% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 12.4% to 13.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.3% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 13.9% to 12.6%. By 2041, Moe - Newborough is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 37% (935 people), reaching 3,436 from 2,500. On the other hand, the 65 to 74 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.