Churchill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Churchill's population is approximately 12,335, reflecting a growth of 423 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was recorded as 11,912. This increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 12,325 by June 2025 and an additional 179 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 15.5 persons per square kilometer. Churchill's growth rate of 3.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.8%. Natural growth contributed approximately 59.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to have an above median population growth of regional areas nationally, with an expected increase of 1,875 persons from the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 15.1% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Churchill has averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 350 homes. As of FY26, 27 approvals have been recorded to date. Over these five years (FY21-FY25), an average of 1.5 new residents per year was associated with each dwelling constructed. This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions.

The average construction cost for new properties in this period was $229,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY26, $13.3 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Churchill maintains similar construction rates per person, consistent with broader area market balance.

However, recent periods have seen a moderation in development activity. All current building activity consists of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population density based on dwelling approvals is 378 people per dwelling, reflecting Churchill's quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Churchill is expected to grow by approximately 1,865 residents by 2041. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, suggesting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Churchill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

The performance of a region is significantly impacted by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 40 such projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Wooreen Energy Storage System, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, Bennetts Creek Battery, and Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Churchill remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Churchill has a skilled workforce with high representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.7% and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 6.0% over the past year. As of December 2025, there are 5,899 residents employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.0% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation is equal to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, 15.7% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training sectors. Churchill has a particular employment specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste services, with an employment share 4.7 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 5.4% of Churchill's workforce compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 6.0%, while labour force increased by 5.3%, resulting in a unemployment rate decrease of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%, with a slight drop of 0.1 percentage point in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate potential future demand within Churchill. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Churchill SA2 is lower than national average. Median income is $49,017 and average income stands at $59,251. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Churchill would be approximately $53,732 (median) and $64,951 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill rank modestly between the 22nd and 29th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 30.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999, mirroring surrounding regions at 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.9% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 35th percentile.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.4% houses and 1.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 43.7%, with mortgaged properties at 39.1% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Churchill was $230, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.1% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.9%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.3%). Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.7% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Churchill shows that there are currently 45 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops are serviced by 15 individual routes, collectively providing a total of 678 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically located an average distance of 796 meters from the nearest transport stop. As Churchill is primarily a residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The dominant mode of transportation remains the car, at a rate of 97%. On average, there are approximately 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Churchill, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 15.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect the conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The service frequency averages at around 96 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,970 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (9.6%). 62.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. There are 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,639 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population showed lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 89.8% being citizens, 88.3% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 40.8% of Churchill's population. Islam, however, was overrepresented at 0.5%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 1.0%.

Regarding ancestry, Australians made up 32.3%, English 30.6%, and Scottish 8.7%. Notably, Dutch (3.2%) were overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.7%, as were Maltese at 1.3% (regional: 0.5%) and Polish at 0.8% (regional: 0.5%).

Churchill's median age exceeds the national pattern

Churchill's median age in 2021 was 41 years, which is lower than Regional Victoria's average of 43 but higher than Australia's national average of 38. The age group of 15-24 years made up 12.3% of Churchill's population, a stronger representation compared to Regional Victoria. However, the 75-84 age group was less prevalent at 6.8%. Post-census data shows that between 2016 and 2021, the 75-84 age group grew from 5.5% to 6.8%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.5% to 12.6%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 16.0% to 13.4%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 12.4% to 10.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Churchill's age profile will significantly change. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 40%, adding 573 residents to reach a total of 2,013. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.