Churchill
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill's population was around 12,379 as of August 2025. This reflected an increase of 467 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,912. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,224 in June 2024 and an additional 144 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 15.5 persons per square kilometer. Churchill's growth rate of 3.9% since the census was within 0.9 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 46.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch used the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, regional areas are projected to have above median population growth. Churchill is expected to expand by 1,937 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, with an increase of 14.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Churchill averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Between FY21 and FY25350 dwellings were approved, with 3 approvals recorded so far in FY26. Over the past five financial years, an average of 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling was observed.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions. The average construction cost value for new properties during this period was $440,000. In FY26, $13.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting steady commercial investment activity.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Churchill has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. All recent development has consisted of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count of 378 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. By 2041, Churchill is projected to grow by 1,782 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Churchill has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 44 potential projects that could influence this region. Notable initiatives include Delburn Wind Farm, Wooreen Energy Storage System, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, and Bennetts Creek Battery. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market performance in Churchill lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Churchill has a skilled workforce with its essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% as of June 2025.

There were 5,666 residents employed at this time, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. The workforce participation rate in Churchill is similar to Rest of Vic.'s rate of 57.4%. Residents' employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training sectors. Churchill has a particular specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste services, with an employment share that is 4.7 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 5.4% of Churchill's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Over the year ending June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.7%, and employment declined by 1.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. saw employment contract by 0.9%, labour force fall by 0.4%, and unemployment increase by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data for Victoria as of Sep-25 shows employment growth of 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2%% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Churchill is lower than average nationally. The median income is $46,742 and the average income is $56,877. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s figures show a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Churchill would be approximately $51,468 (median) and $62,627 (average) as of March 2025. The 2021 Census reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Churchill rank modestly, between the 22nd and 30th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 30.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999, mirroring the surrounding region where 30.3% fall into this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 88.9% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 36th percentile.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 98.4% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 43.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.1% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,213. The median weekly rent figure in Churchill was $230, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $237. Nationally, Churchill's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.1% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.9%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.3%). Educational participation is high at 29.0%, comprising primary education (10.7%), secondary education (8.2%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

The area has 15 schools serving 984 students, with Churchill having typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 973). There are 9 primary, 4 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents is 8.0, below the regional average of 13.7, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note that where school enrolments show 'n/a', please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Churchill shows 44 active public transport stops operating within the city. These stops offer a mix of bus services. Seven individual routes serve these stops, collectively providing 1,028 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 796 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 146 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent in both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,979 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (9.6%). Conversely, 62.2% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's 60.1%. As of October 2021, 20.5% (~2,542 people) are aged 65 and over. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill exhibited below-average cultural diversity, with 89.8% citizens and 88.3% born in Australia. English was spoken by 95.9% at home. Christianity dominated with 40.8%, while Islam was overrepresented at 0.5%.

Ancestry showed Australian (32.3%), English (30.6%) and Scottish (8.7%) as top groups. Notably, Dutch (3.2%), Maltese (1.3%) and Polish (0.8%) were relatively overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Churchill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Churchill's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group comprises 12.8% of Churchill's population, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 75-84 cohort makes up 6.4%. Post-census data shows the 15-24 age group grew from 11.5% to 12.8%, the 55-64 cohort declined from 16.0% to 13.8%, and the 45-54 group decreased from 12.4% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Churchill's age profile. The 25-34 cohort is expected to grow by 46%, adding 669 residents to reach 2,110. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.