Churchill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Churchill's population is around 12,639 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 727 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,912 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,224 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 166 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 15.9 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Churchill's 6.1% growth since the census positions it within 1.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (7.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 46.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth for regional areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,937 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 12.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Churchill has averaged around 70 new dwelling approvals each year, totalling 350 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), the market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $229,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $13.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Churchill maintains similar construction rates (per person), maintaining a market balance consistent with the broader area, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. Meanwhile, recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 378 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Churchill is expected to grow by 1,522 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Churchill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 40 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Wooreen Energy Storage System, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, Bennetts Creek Battery, and Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Churchill remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Churchill features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 4.7%, and 6.0% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,899 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.0% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is on par with Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 15.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste, with an employment share 4.7 times the regional level. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 5.4% of Churchill's workforce compared to 7.5% in Regional Vic.. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 6.0% while the labour force increased by 5.3%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Churchill. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Churchill SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $49,017 while the average income stands at $59,251. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,061 (median) and $64,139 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Churchill, between the 22nd and 29th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 30.1% of the community (3,804 individuals), mirroring the surrounding region where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 88.9% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 35th percentile.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Churchill, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.4% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Churchill was higher than that of Regional Vic., at 43.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (39.1%) or rented (17.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional Vic. average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $230, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.1% of all households, comprising 28.5% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.9%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (17.8%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 45 active transport stops operating within Churchill. These stops are serviced by 15 individual routes, collectively providing 678 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 796 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 15.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 96 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Churchill, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~6,117 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.6% and 9.6% of residents, respectively, while 62.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 20.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,585 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill has below-average cultural diversity, with 89.8% of its population being citizens, 88.3% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Churchill is Christianity, which makes up 40.8% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Islam, which comprises 0.5% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Churchill are Australian, comprising 32.3% of the population, English, comprising 30.6% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 8.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 3.2% of Churchill (vs 1.7% regionally), Maltese at 1.3% (vs 0.5%) and Polish at 0.8% (vs 0.5%).

Churchill's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 41 years, Churchill's median age is somewhat lower than the Regional Vic. average of 43 yet modestly exceeds the 38-year national average. The 15 - 24 age group shows strong representation at 12.7% compared to Regional Vic., whereas the 75 - 84 cohort is less prevalent at 6.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows younger residents have shifted the median age down by 1.0 years to 41. Notable shifts include the 35 to 44 age group, which has grown from 11.5% to 13.0% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.5% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 16.0% to 13.2% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 12.4% to 10.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Churchill. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 36%, adding 561 residents to reach 2,110. On the other hand, both the 65 to 74 and 55 to 64 age groups will see reduced numbers.