Churchill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill's population as of February 2026 is approximately 12,639, showing a 6.1% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 11,912 people. This growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 12,224 in June 2024 and 166 new addresses validated since the Census date. The population density is around 15.9 persons per square kilometer. Churchill's growth rate of 6.1% is close to the SA3 area's rate of 7.2%. Natural growth contributed about 46.4% of recent population gains, with other factors like overseas and interstate migration also positive. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to have an above median population growth of regional areas nationwide, with an expected increase of 1,937 persons, reflecting a total increase of 12.0% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Churchill has averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 350 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 17 approvals have been recorded. This averages out to around 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction value for these dwellings is $229,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In terms of commercial development, Churchill has seen $13.3 million in approvals this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Churchill maintains similar construction rates per capita, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area. However, recent periods have shown a moderation in development activity.

The current building activity consists entirely of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. This is reflected in an estimated 378 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Churchill is expected to grow by 1,522 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Churchill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 40 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Wooreen Energy Storage System, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, Bennetts Creek Battery, and Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Churchill remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Churchill has a skilled workforce with 4.7% unemployment rate as of September 2025. There are 5,854 residents employed, which is 1.0% higher than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is at 61.4%, equal to Rest of Vic.'s rate.

15.7% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Churchill specializes in electricity, gas, water & waste services with an employment share 4.7 times the regional level but has lower agriculture, forestry & fishing employment at 5.4% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on resident population vs working population count.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, labour force by 4.0%, reducing unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7% and labour force by 0.6%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment growth of 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Churchill SA2 is lower than the national average. The median income is $49,017 and the average income stands at $59,251. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Churchill SA2 would be approximately $53,061 (median) and $64,139 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill rank modestly, between the 22nd and 29th percentiles. In terms of income distribution, 30.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, which is similar to the surrounding region where 30.3% fall into this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 88.9% retained, but disposable income ranks below average at the 35th percentile.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.4% houses and 1.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 43.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.1% and rented dwellings at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Weekly rent in Churchill was recorded at $230, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.1% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.9%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 32.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.7% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 45 active transport stops operating within Churchill. These stops are serviced by 15 individual routes, collectively providing 678 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 796 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 15.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 96 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment, with notable mortality rates and high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of Churchill's total population (~6,117 people), compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria (Rest of Vic.) and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.6% and 9.6% of residents respectively, while 62.2% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic..

Working-age residents face significant health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, Churchill has 20.5% of its population aged 65 and over (2,585 people), lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population was found to be predominantly homogeneous, with 89.8% being Australian citizens and 88.3% born in Australia. The majority, 95.9%, spoke English exclusively at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 40.8% of Churchill's population.

Notably, Islam was overrepresented compared to regional averages, comprising 0.5% of Churchill's population compared to 1.0% in the rest of Victoria. In terms of ancestry, Australian (32.3%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (8.7%) were the top three groups represented. However, there were notable deviations in the representation of certain ethnicities: Dutch was overrepresented at 3.2%, Maltese at 1.3%, and Polish at 0.8%.

Churchill's median age exceeds the national pattern

Churchill's median age is 41 years, which is lower than Victoria's average of 43 but higher than Australia's national average of 38. The age group of 15-24 years is strongly represented at 12.7%, compared to the rest of Victoria. However, the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent at 6.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that younger residents have shifted the median age down by one year to 41. The notable shifts include the 35 to 44 age group growing from 11.5% to 13.0%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increasing from 11.5% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 16.0% to 13.2%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 12.4% to 10.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Churchill, with the 25 to 34 cohort showing the strongest projected growth of 36%, adding 561 residents to reach 2,110. Meanwhile, both the 65 to 74 and 55 to 64 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.