Churchill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill's population was around 12,401 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 489 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,912 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,224 in June 2024 and an additional 153 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population resulted in a density ratio of 15.6 persons per square kilometer. Churchill's growth rate of 4.1% since the census positioned it within 1.4 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.5%. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 46.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch used the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, regional areas across the nation are projected to have above median population growth. The area is expected to expand by 1,937 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 14.2% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Churchill has averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 350 homes. As of FY26, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were noted between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction value for new properties was $229,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In FY26, $13.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, showing moderate levels of commercial development. Churchill maintains similar construction rates per person compared to Rest of Vic., consistent with broader area market balance, although recent activity has moderated. Current building activity comprises entirely detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated 378 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. By 2041, Churchill is projected to grow by 1,760 residents, with current construction levels expected to meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Churchill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 40 projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Wooreen Energy Storage System, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, Bennetts Creek Battery, and Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Churchill remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Churchill's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate in Churchill was 4.7% as of September 2025.

There was an estimated employment growth of 4.4% over the past year. As of September 2025, 5,854 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.0% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Churchill was broadly similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training sectors.

The area has a particular employment specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste services with an employment share 4.7 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 5.4% of Churchill's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic.. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.4% while labour force increased by 4.0%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that Churchill SA2 had a median income of $46,742 and an average income of $56,877. This is lower than the national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average) for Rest of Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Churchill SA2 would be approximately $52,426 and average income would be around $63,793 by that date. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Churchill rank modestly, between the 22nd and 29th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 30.1% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to the surrounding region where 30.3% fall into this bracket. Housing costs consume 88.9% of income on average, with disposable income ranking at the 35th percentile.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 98.4% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 43.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.1% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,213. Median weekly rent in Churchill was $230, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s figure of $237. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national average of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.1% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.9%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.3%). Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.7% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 44 active stops operating within Churchill, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 1028 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated limited, with residents typically located 796 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 146 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Churchill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Only approximately 48% of Churchill's total population (~5,989 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Churchill are arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (9.6%). Conversely, 62.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's rate of 60.1%. Approximately 20.5% of Churchill's population is aged 65 or over (2,547 people). Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Churchill are promising and perform better than those of the general population.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.8% of its population being citizens, 88.3% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 40.8% of people in Churchill. Islam was overrepresented compared to Rest of Vic., making up 0.5% of Churchill's population versus 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.3%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Dutch (3.2%) and Maltese (1.3%) were overrepresented compared to regional figures of 2.9% and 1.6%, respectively, while Polish was slightly overrepresented at 0.8%.

Churchill's median age exceeds the national pattern

Churchill's median age in 2021 was 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group made up 12.8% of Churchill's population, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 75-84 cohort was less prevalent at 6.4%. Post-2021 Census data showed an increase in the 15-24 age group from 11.5% to 12.8%, a decline in the 55-64 cohort from 16.0% to 13.8%, and a decrease in the 45-54 group from 12.4% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Churchill's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow the most at 46%, adding 666 residents to reach 2,110. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.