Churchill
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill's population is 12,401 as of November 2025. This figure shows an increase of 489 people from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,912. The change is inferred from the ABS estimated resident population of 12,224 in June 2024 and an additional 153 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 15.6 persons per square kilometer. Churchill's growth rate of 4.1% since the census is within 1.4 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.5%. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 46.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, the area is expected to expand by 1,937 persons to 2041, with an increase of 14.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Churchill has averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 350 homes. As of FY26, 12 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling were constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction value of these dwellings was $229,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In FY26, $13.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Churchill maintains similar construction rates per person compared to the Rest of Vic., preserving market balance consistent with the broader area. However, recent building activity has moderated.

All current activity consists of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Churchill is 378 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. By 2041, Churchill is projected to grow by 1,760 residents. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Churchill has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 40 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones are Wooreen Energy Storage System, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, Bennetts Creek Battery, and Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Churchill lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Churchill's workforce comprises skilled individuals with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate stood at 5.1% as of June 2025.

During this period, 5,666 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Churchill was broadly similar to Rest of Vic.'s figure of 57.4%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training sectors. The area has a significant employment specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste services, with an employment share 4.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 5.4% of Churchill's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.7%, and employment declined by 1.6% in Churchill, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced a 0.9% employment contraction, a 0.4% labour force fall, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Churchill was $46,742 with average income at $56,877. This is lower than national averages of $51,395 (median) and $65,627 (average). In Rest of Vic., median income was $48,741 and average income was $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since June 2022, estimated current incomes in Churchill are approximately $52,426 (median) and $63,793 (average), as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill between the 22nd and 30th percentiles. Income distribution shows 30.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999, similar to surrounding regions at 30.3%. Housing costs allow for retention of 88.9%, but disposable income is below average at the 36th percentile.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.4% houses and 1.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 43.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.1% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,213. Median weekly rent in Churchill was $230, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s figure of $237. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national average of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.1% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.9%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.3%). Educational participation is high at 29.0%, comprising primary education (10.7%), secondary education (8.2%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Fifteen schools serve 984 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 973) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes nine primary, four secondary, and two K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents are 8.0, below the regional average of 13.7, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Churchill has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 1028 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents typically located 796 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 146 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,989 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (9.6%). A majority (62.2%) report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's 60.1%. As of 2021, approximately 20.5% (~2,547 people) are aged 65 and over. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors perform better than the general population in various metrics.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 89.8% being citizens, 88.3% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the most prevalent religion in Churchill, comprising 40.8% of its population. However, Islam had a notable overrepresentation compared to regional figures, with 0.5% of Churchill's population identifying as Muslim versus 0.8% across Rest of Vic..

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (32.3%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (8.7%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences in representation: Dutch at 3.2% in Churchill compared to 2.9% regionally, Maltese at 1.3% versus 1.6%, and Polish at 0.8% against 0.7%.

Churchill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 41 years, Churchill's median age is somewhat lower than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 yet modestly exceeds the national average of 38. The percentage of the population in the 15-24 age group is strong at 12.8%, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent at 6.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 12.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 16.0% to 13.8%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 12.4% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Churchill's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25-34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 46%, adding 666 residents to reach 2,110. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.