Churchill (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Churchill's population is estimated at around 5410 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 486 people (9.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4924 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5193 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 252 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Churchill's 9.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (7.2%), along with the Rest of Vic., marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 46.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of national regional areas is projected, with the suburb expected to grow by 922 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 13.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Churchill has had around 35 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 176 homes were approved, with another 13 so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 1.5 new residents per year per new home over the past five financial years.

The average construction value for these dwellings is around $440,000, indicating a focus on premium market properties. In FY-26, Churchill has seen $5.2 million in commercial approvals, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Churchill has had slightly more development activity, with 33.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This maintains good buyer choice and supports existing property values. However, construction activity has eased recently, with all recent building activity consisting of detached houses. This preserves the area's low-density nature and caters to space-seeking buyers. Currently, there are approximately 305 people per dwelling approval in Churchill. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates indicate Churchill is expected to grow by 705 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Churchill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. One significant project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Key projects include the Wooreen Energy Storage System, Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, and Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Churchill faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Churchill's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. It has a notable specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste services, with an employment share 2.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 2.4% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.7%. As of December 2025, 2107 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.7%, and estimated employment growth of 5.8% over the past year. The unemployment rate is 4.0% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Churchill lags at 53.4%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%.

Only 12.9% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 5.8% while labour force increased by 4.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced employment and labour force decline of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, with a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Churchill had a median income among taxpayers of $40,374. The average income stood at $49,128. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 30, 2023, current estimates would be approximately $43,705 (median) and $53,181 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household incomes in Churchill fall between the 7th and 9th percentiles nationally. Family incomes also fall within this range. Personal incomes in Churchill similarly rank at the 7th to 9th percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, earnings of $800 - $1,499 capture 30.4% of Churchill's community (1,644 individuals). This differs from metropolitan regions where earnings of $1,500 - $2,999 dominate with 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.2% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Churchill's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.7% houses and 3.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill was at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.9% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $997, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $230, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.0% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 10.0% while certificates make up 31.6%. Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.2% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 29 active transport stops operating within Churchill. These stops are serviced by 13 individual routes, collectively providing 653 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 225 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 12.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 93 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 2,508 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 11.5% and 11.1% of residents respectively. Around 56.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with higher chronic condition rates. The area has 19.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,054 people), lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 87.6% being Australian citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.7% speaking only English at home. Christianity was the most prevalent religion in Churchill, comprising 39.8% of its population, which is lower than the Regional Vic average of 41.2%. Islam's representation in Churchill was slightly higher than the regional average, with 0.8% compared to 1.0%.

Regarding ancestry, Australians made up the largest group at 32.4%, followed by English (29.7%) and Scottish (8.1%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented in Churchill at 3.3% compared to the regional average of 1.7%, Maltese at 1.3% versus 0.5%, and Polish at 0.8% versus 0.5%.

Churchill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Churchill is 37 years, significantly lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent percentage (16.6%) of individuals aged 15-24, while those aged 55-64 are comparatively smaller at 10.3%. Between 2021 and now, the median age has decreased by 1.3 years to 37, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Key changes include an increase in the 15-24 age group from 13.0% to 16.6%, and the 35-44 cohort from 11.4% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 group decreased from 13.2% to 10.3%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 11.1% to 9.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Churchill. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 37% (284 people), reaching 1,053 from 768. In contrast, the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.