Churchill (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Churchill's population is estimated at around 5,159. This reflects an increase from 4,924 people recorded in the 2021 Census, indicating a growth rate of 4.8%. The current estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and ABS ERP data released June 2024, showing a resident population of 5,071. This results in a density ratio of approximately 240 persons per square kilometer. Since the Census, Churchill's growth rate has been competitive with its SA3 area (5.5%), demonstrating strong fundamentals. Natural growth contributed about 46% to overall gains, while overseas and interstate migration also played positive roles.

AreaSearch projections for Churchill are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Considering these projections, Churchill is expected to experience above median population growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, increasing by 883 persons to reach approximately 6,041 by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 15.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Churchill experienced around 33 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 166 homes were approved, with another 7 approved in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of 1.5 new residents per year per new home over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $440,000. In FY-26, $7.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Rest of Vic., Churchill has seen slightly more development, with 26.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This maintains good buyer choice and supports existing property values. Recent development has been entirely standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature with approximately 288 people per dwelling approval. Future projections estimate Churchill to add 785 residents by 2041, indicating that current development rates should comfortably meet demand.

Churchill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a single project that may impact this area: Wooreen Energy Storage System, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station, and Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System are key projects. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Churchill face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Churchill's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate stands at 8.1%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 2,029 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Rest of Vic.'s by 4.3%. Workforce participation lags behind Rest of Vic., at 49.7% compared to 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, electricity, gas, water & waste services have a high concentration with employment levels at 2.9 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, with only 2.4% of jobs compared to the regional 7.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Churchill's labour force decreased by 1.1%, accompanied by a 2.6% decrease in employment, leading to a 1.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9%, labour force decline of 0.4%, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Churchill's median taxpayer income was $40,374 and average income was $49,128 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average of $51,684 (median) and $64,095 (average). In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s median income was $48,741 and average income was $60,693 in 2022. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Churchill would be approximately $45,283 (median) and $55,102 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill fall between the 7th and 9th percentiles nationally. In Churchill, 30.4% of individuals earn between $800 - $1,499, differing from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.2% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Churchill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 96.7% of dwellings were houses with 3.3% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 38.5%, aligning with Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 30.9% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $997, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,213. The median weekly rent figure in Churchill was $230, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $237. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 68.0% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.7%, significantly lower than the VIC average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 31.6%. Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.2% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education. Six schools operate within Churchill, educating approximately 427 students, with varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 946). Educational provision is split between three primary and three secondary institutions. School places per 100 residents are at 8.3, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Churchill shows 28 active public transport stops operating within the area. These stops are served by a mix of buses operating along six individual routes. The combined weekly passenger trips across all routes total 1,003.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 225 meters from their nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 143 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 46% (~2,391 people) have private health cover, compared to 50.2% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 11.5% and 11.1% of residents respectively.

56.8% report having no medical ailments, compared to 60.1% in the rest of Victoria. As of 2021, 20.3% (1,047 people) are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors align with those of the general population.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 87.6% being citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the most prevalent religion, comprising 39.8% of Churchill's population. While Islam was overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, it still constituted a small proportion of the population at 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (32.4%), English (29.7%), and Scottish (8.1%) were the top three represented groups in Churchill. Notably, Dutch (3.3% vs regional 2.9%), Maltese (1.3% vs 1.6%), and Polish (0.8% vs 0.7%) ethnicities showed higher representation than their regional counterparts.

Churchill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Churchill is 37 years, significantly lower than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are prominent at 14.3%, while those aged 45-54 are comparatively smaller at 9.5% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 13.0% to 14.3%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.2% to 11.1%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.1% to 9.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Churchill's age structure. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to increase by 315 people (46%) from 691 to 1,007. Conversely, both the 65-74 and 55-64 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.