Churchill (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill's population is estimated at 5,358 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 434 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,924. The growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 5,349 in June 2025 and an additional 109 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 249 persons per square kilometer. Churchill's population growth of 8.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (2.8%) and the Rest of Vic., making it a regional growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 46.0% to overall population gains, with all migration factors also being positive.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise Vic State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected population growth shows the suburb of Churchill (Vic.) expected to grow by 899 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 16.6% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Churchill has had approximately 35 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, about 176 homes were approved, with another 17 in FY-26 so far. Over the past five years, an average of 1.9 new residents per year per dwelling was recorded, suggesting balanced supply and demand. However, this figure has increased to 5.9 people per dwelling over the last two financial years, indicating growing demand.

The average construction value for development projects in Churchill is $440,000, targeting the premium market segment. This year, $5.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Churchill has slightly more development activity, with 32.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving the low-density nature of the area and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 312 people per dwelling approval in Churchill, indicating potential for further growth. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Churchill is projected to grow by 890 residents by 2041. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Churchill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a single project likely to impact the area: Wooreen Energy Storage System, Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, and Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Churchill recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Churchill has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 6.4% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 8.7%. As of December 2025, 2,385 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was 57.5%, below the regional average of 61.0%. Home-based work accounted for a low 12.9% of jobs, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area had strong specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste services (2.9 times the regional level), but agriculture, forestry & fishing employed only 2.4% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%.

Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, with a lower ratio of working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 8.7%, while labour force grew by 7.4%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw employment decline by 0.6% and labour force decline by 0.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Churchill's industry mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Churchill had a median taxpayer income of $40,374 and an average income of $49,128. These figures are lower than national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) in Regional Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes for Churchill as of March 2026 would be approximately $44,258 and $53,854 respectively. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill fall between the 7th and 9th percentiles nationally. In income distribution, 30.4% of individuals earn between $800 - $1,499, differing from metropolitan patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 band dominates at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 87.2% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Churchill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 96.7% houses and 3.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.9% and rented dwellings at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $997, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent was recorded at $230, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.0% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (31.6%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.2% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Churchill has 29 operational public transport stops. These are served by 13 distinct routes that together facilitate 653 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is deemed good, with residents on average situated 225 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this predominantly residential area commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 97% of residents. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 12.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 93 trips per day, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across various health conditions that affect both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 46% (~2,483 people) of Churchill's total population has private health cover, compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.5% and 11.1% of residents respectively. However, 56.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. The working-age population experiences notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Churchill has 20.6% (1,103 people) of its residents aged 65 and over, lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally aligning with the broader population.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 87.6% being citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 39.8% of Churchill's population. Islam, however, was slightly overrepresented compared to Regional Vic., making up 0.8% versus 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians were the largest group at 32.4%, followed by English at 29.7% and Scottish at 8.1%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences in representation: Dutch were overrepresented at 3.3% compared to Regional Vic.'s 1.7%, Maltese at 1.3% versus 0.5%, and Polish at 0.8% against 0.5%.

Churchill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Churchill is 37 years, which is lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 years make up 16.6% of the population, while those aged 45-54 years comprise 9.1%, which is smaller than in Regional Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the median age has decreased by 1 year from 38 to 37, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. The 15-24 age group grew from 13.0% to 16.6%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 6.2% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 13.2% to 10.8%, and the 45-54 group decreased from 11.1% to 9.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Churchill. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 41% (297 people), reaching 1,015 from 717. In contrast, the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.