Churchill (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Churchill (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is around 5,398 people. This figure represents an increase of 474 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 4,924. The growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 5,193 residents in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, along with an additional 93 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 251 persons per square kilometer. The Churchill (Vic.) (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 9.6% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, surpassing both the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.9% and the non-metro area's growth during this period. Natural growth contributed approximately 46.0% to overall population gains in recent periods, with other drivers such as overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch projections for the Churchill (Vic.) (SA2) are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made through a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the Churchill (Vic.) (SA2) is expected to increase its population by 880 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 10.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Churchill has experienced around 36 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Approximately 180 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 11 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive per year for each new home built over these five years, suggesting a well-matched supply and demand dynamic.

The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $440,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $5.2 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting Churchill's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Churchill has slightly more development activity, at 37.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although construction activity has recently eased. All building activity in recent times consists solely of detached houses, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 288 people per dwelling approval in Churchill, indicating potential room for growth. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Churchill is expected to grow by 543 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Churchill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly impacted by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified one project that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Wooreen Energy Storage System, Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, and Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Churchill faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Churchill's workforce comprises white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 7.8% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 4.1%.

As of September 2025, 2,096 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, higher than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 49.7% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste (2.9 times the regional level), but agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 2.4% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, while labour force rose by 3.7%, reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years for Churchill, based on its industry mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, the suburb of Churchill had a median income among taxpayers of $40,374. The average income stood at $49,128. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Rest of Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $43,705 (median) and $53,181 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Churchill all fall between the 7th and 9th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $800 - 1,499 earnings band captures 30.4% of the community (1,640 individuals), differing from patterns across the metropolitan region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3%. While housing costs are modest with 87.2% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Churchill's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.7% houses and 3.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill was at 38.5%, with the rest either mortgaged (30.9%) or rented (30.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $997, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,213 and Australia's national figure of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Churchill was $230, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s $237 and the national average of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 68.0% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households making up 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (31.6%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.2%), secondary education (7.9%), and tertiary education (4.6%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 29 active public transport stops in Churchill. These comprise a mix of bus services, operated by 13 distinct routes. Weekly, these routes facilitate 653 passenger trips.

Accessibility is rated as good, with residents situated an average of 225 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 93 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 46% (~2,502 people) of Churchill's population has private health cover, compared to Victoria's rest-of-state average of 50.9%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions in Churchill, affecting 11.5% and 11.1% of residents respectively. Around 56.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 60.1% across Victoria's rest-of-state areas. Approximately 20.2% (~1,090 people) of Churchill's population is aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with the general population's health profile.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population showed limited cultural diversity, with 87.6% being citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 39.8%. Islam, however, had a slightly higher representation than average, comprising 0.8% compared to 0.8% across Victoria.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (32.4%), English (29.7%), and Scottish (8.1%) were the most prevalent groups. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Dutch at 3.3%, Maltese at 1.3%, and Polish at 0.8%.

Churchill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Churchill is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are prominent at 14.4%, while those aged 45-54 make up a smaller proportion at 9.5% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.0% to 14.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.2% to 11.0%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.1% to 9.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Churchill's age structure. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to increase by 283 people (39%), from 723 to 1,007. Conversely, both the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.