Churchill (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Churchill (Vic.) is around 5,410, reflecting a growth of 486 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 9.9% rise from the previous population count of 4,924. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 5,193 in June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 252 persons per square kilometer. Churchill's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (7.2%) and the Rest of Vic., positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 46.0% to overall population gains, with all migration factors also being positive.

AreaSearch projections for Churchill are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the suburb is projected to experience above median population growth, gaining an additional 862 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 9.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Churchill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Churchill has experienced around 36 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Approximately 180 homes were approved over the past five financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 11 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive per year for each new home built over these five years, indicating a balance between supply and demand that supports stable market dynamics.

The average construction value of new dwellings is $440,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $5.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Churchill's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Churchill has seen slightly more development activity, with 37.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. However, construction activity has recently eased. All recent building activity consists of detached houses, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 288 people per dwelling approval in Churchill, indicating room for growth. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Churchill is expected to grow by 522 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Churchill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to impact this region: Wooreen Energy Storage System, Marinus Link - Victorian Converter Station, Hazelwood Mine Rehabilitation Project, and Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System are key projects, with the following providing more detail on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Churchill faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Churchill has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area specializes in electricity, gas, water & waste services, employing 2.9 times the regional average.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 2.4% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. As of September 2025, 2,094 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Churchill lags behind at 54.1% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. A low 12.9% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%, while labour force increased by 3.7%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment and labour force declines of 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years for Churchill, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Churchill had a median taxpayer income of $40,374 and an average of $49,128. This is lower than national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 in Rest of Vic respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Churchill are approximately $43,705 (median) and $53,181 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Churchill fall between the 7th and 9th percentiles nationally. The $800 - 1,499 earnings band captures 30.4% of Churchill's community, differing from metropolitan regions where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3%. Housing costs are modest, with 87.2% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Churchill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.7% houses and 3.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill was at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.9% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Churchill was $997, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Churchill was recorded at $230, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.0% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Churchill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (31.6%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.2% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis conducted in Churchill revealed that there are 29 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops are serviced by a total of 13 individual routes, collectively providing 653 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 225 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census data, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions, a relatively low 12.9% of residents work from home. Service frequency averages 93 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% of Churchill's total population (~2,508 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 11.5% and 11.1% of residents respectively. 56.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age population chronic condition rates are notably high. Churchill has 20.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,087 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 23.9%. Senior health outcomes present challenges, ranking broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Churchill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.6% of its population being citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Churchill, comprising 39.8% of its population, compared to 1.0% for Islam across Rest of Vic., which was notably overrepresented in Churchill at 0.8%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.4%), English (29.7%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Dutch (3.3%) and Maltese (1.3%) were notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.7% and 0.5%, respectively, while Polish was also slightly overrepresented at 0.8% versus the regional average of 0.5%.

Churchill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Churchill is 37 years, which is lower than the average for Rest of Vic., at 43 years, and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are prominent, making up 14.2% of the population, while those aged 55-64 make up a smaller proportion at 10.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 11.4% to 13.0%, and the 15-24 cohort has increased from 13.0% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.2% to 10.4%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.1% to 9.2%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Churchill's age structure. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to increase by 248 people, from 757 to 1,006, a rise of 33%. Conversely, both the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in number.