Trafalgar (Vic.)

Trafalgar lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Trafalgar (Vic.) is around 4,681 people. This represents an increase of 332 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,349 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,622 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, and an additional 49 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 68 persons per square kilometer. Trafalgar's growth rate of 7.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area (6.0%) and SA4 region, making it a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 46.0% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Trafalgar is expected to expand by 838 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 13.7% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Trafalgar recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Trafalgar averaging approximately 38 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 191 homes. As of FY-26, four approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed in the area between FY-21 and FY-25 is 1.4, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $460,000.

This financial year has seen $8.5 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Comparatively, Trafalgar has 18.0% less new development per person than the Rest of Vic., and it ranks among the 49th percentile nationally for areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties. New building activity consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. This shift from the current 94.0% houses indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 330 people per dwelling approval, suggesting room for growth. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Trafalgar is expected to grow by 643 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Trafalgar has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are Trafalgar Road Network Repairs, Trafalgar Structure Plan, Gippsland Odyssey Trail (Trafalgar Section), and Strategic Extractive Resource Areas (Trafalgar). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Trafalgar presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.4%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Trafalgar has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.4% as of June 2025, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

In June 2025, there were 2,103 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was at par with Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area had particular employment specialization in electricity, gas, water & waste, with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to 7.5% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.6%, alongside a 0.8% employment decline, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.2 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 could offer further insight into potential future demand within Trafalgar. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggested national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Trafalgar's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Trafalgar had a median income among taxpayers of $49,077 and an average income of $62,837. Nationally, the median was $51,336 and the average was $64,000. Compared to Rest of Vic., which had median and average incomes of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively, Trafalgar's incomes were slightly lower. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $55,045 (median) and $70,478 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Trafalgar between the 32nd and 34th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 32.2% of locals (1,507 people) with incomes between $1,500 - 2,999. Housing costs allow for retention of 87.0%, but disposable income ranks below average at the 36th percentile.

Trafalgar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Trafalgar, as per the latest Census evaluation, 93.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 6.3% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This is compared to Non-Metro Vic., where 91.6% of dwellings are houses and 8.4% are other dwelling types. Home ownership in Trafalgar stood at 40.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.4% and rented dwellings at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,432, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent figure in Trafalgar was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Trafalgar's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Trafalgar has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households making up 28.3% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.5.

Trafalgar shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is substantially lower than Victoria's average, at 18.2% compared to 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 12.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, held by 39.9% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (30.0%). Educational participation is high, with 29.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.5% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education. Trafalgar's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,161 students, serving the area with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 997). The area has two primary and one secondary school, with a capacity exceeding typical residential needs, indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows three active transport stops operating in Trafalgar. These include a mix of train and bus services. Fourteen individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 388 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 735 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 55 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 129 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Trafalgar is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Trafalgar faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is slightly lower than the average SA2 area, at approximately 52% of the total population (~2,420 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9 and 9.0% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 64.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 24.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,132 people), which is higher than the 20.8% in Rest of Vic..

Trafalgar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Trafalgar's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.6% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.7%), and speaking English only at home (95.3%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.1% of Trafalgar's population. Notably, Judaism was not represented in Trafalgar's population, compared to a regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (32.5%), Australian (32.2%), and Scottish (8.5%). Some ethnic groups had notable divergences: Dutch were overrepresented at 2.5% (vs regional 2.7%), Maltese at 0.8% (vs 0.4%), and Samoan at 0.2% (vs 0%).

Trafalgar hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Trafalgar's median age is 41 years, which is lower than Victoria's average of 43 but higher than Australia's national average of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 12.3% of Trafalgar's population, compared to the Rest of Vic., while the 55-64 cohort makes up 9.7%. According to data from the 2021 Census onwards, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.3% to 8.5% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 14.0% to 12.6%, and the 55-64 cohort has dropped from 10.9% to 9.7%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Trafalgar's age profile by 2041. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow strongly, adding 252 residents to reach 828, a 44% increase. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts.