Trafalgar (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Trafalgar are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of November 2025, Trafalgar (Vic.) SA2's estimated population is around 4,869. This reflects an increase of 520 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,349. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 4,433 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 71 persons per square kilometer. Trafalgar (Vic.) SA2's 12.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area average of 7.9%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 46.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas, with the Trafalgar (Vic.) SA2 expected to increase by 832 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 9.2% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Trafalgar according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Trafalgar has averaged around 37 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 186 homes. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. Over this period, an average of 1.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. This indicates a balanced supply and demand market supporting stable conditions.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $460,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $5.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Trafalgar's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Trafalgar has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, indicating somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. New building activity shows a mix of detached dwellings (70.0%) and attached dwellings (30.0%), including townhouses and apartments, offering options across different price points.

This differs significantly from existing housing patterns, which are currently 94.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Trafalgar is 405 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Trafalgar is expected to grow by 449 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Trafalgar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Trafalgar Road Network Repairs, Trafalgar Structure Plan, Gippsland Odyssey Trail (Trafalgar Section), and Strategic Extractive Resource Areas (Trafalgar).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Trafalgar shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Trafalgar's workforce is skilled with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.3% as of September 2025, which is 0.5% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.7%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 2,166 residents were in work and workforce participation was on par with Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area had a particularly notable concentration in electricity, gas, water & waste, with employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 5.3% of Trafalgar's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic.. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.7% while labour force increased by 3.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%, with unemployment rising marginally. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.2% over ten years. Applying these projections to Trafalgar's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Trafalgar had a median taxpayer income of $49,077 and an average income of $62,837 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average for Rest of Vic., which had a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728 in the same period. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest Trafalgar's median income will be approximately $53,126 and its average income around $68,021. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Trafalgar rank modestly, with household, family, and personal incomes all falling between the 32nd and 34th percentiles. The largest segment of residents, comprising 32.2% or 1,567 individuals, earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which is similar to patterns seen at regional levels where 30.3% fall into this income range. Housing costs are manageable in Trafalgar, with 87.0% of income retained, although disposable income ranks below average at the 36th percentile.

Trafalgar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Trafalgar, as per the latest Census evaluation, 93.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 6.3% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic., where 91.6% of dwellings are houses and 8.4% are other dwellings. Home ownership in Trafalgar stood at 40.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.4% and rented ones at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,432, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent in Trafalgar was $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Trafalgar's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,432 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Trafalgar has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 28.3% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.5.

Trafalgar shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 18.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (30.0%). Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.5% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Trafalgar has three operational public transport stops. These offer a combination of train and bus services. Thirteen different routes serve these stops, together facilitating 323 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Trafalgar is deemed limited, with residents generally situated 735 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 46 daily trips across all routes, which amounts to about 107 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Trafalgar is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Trafalgar faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 52% of the total population (around 2,517 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.9% and 9.0% of residents respectively. A total of 64.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across the rest of Victoria. The area has 24.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,178 people), which is higher than the state average of 20.8%.

Trafalgar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Trafalgar's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 90.6% being citizens, 89.7% born in Australia, and 95.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 43.1%. Notably, Judaism had no representation (0.0%) compared to Victoria's regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.5%), Australian (32.2%), and Scottish (8.5%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Dutch were overrepresented at 2.5% (regional average 2.7%), Maltese at 0.8% (regional average 0.4%), and Samoan at 0.2% (regional average 0.0%).

Trafalgar's median age exceeds the national pattern

Trafalgar's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 12.3% of Trafalgar's population, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 55-64 cohort makes up 9.7%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.3% to 8.5% of Trafalgar's population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 14.0% to 12.6%, and the 55-64 cohort has dropped from 10.9% to 9.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that by 2041, Trafalgar's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 38%, adding 230 residents to reach a total of 829. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts.