Longwarry

Longwarry lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the suburb of Longwarry's estimated population as of Feb 2026 is around 3,103. This reflects a growth of 667 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,436. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,836 in Jun 2024, following examination of ABS ERP data release and validation of 78 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 63 persons per square kilometer. Longwarry's growth rate of 27.4% since 2021 exceeds Rest of Vic's (8.1%) and national average, making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.0% to recent population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with base year 2022.

For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is forecasted to increase by 1,168 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 29.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Longwarry among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Longwarry has seen approximately 76 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 384 homes. As of FY-26 to date, 15 approvals have been recorded. The market shows a balance between supply and demand with an average of 1.1 new residents arriving per new home over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25). New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $405,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This year, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Building activity shows 94.0% standalone homes and 6.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 105 people per dwelling approval, Longwarry exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate Longwarry adding 901 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Longwarry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to affect this region: Gippsland Line Upgrade - Bunyip and Longwarry Stations, Warragul and Drouin Precinct Structure Plan, Additional VLocity Trains, Marinus Link. Projects of particular relevance are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Longwarry shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Longwarry has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment. The construction sector is particularly prominent with an unemployment rate of 3.5% and estimated employment growth of 6.3% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,380 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, 0.2% below Regional Vic.'s rate.

Workforce participation is 65.1%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. A moderate 14.7% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in construction (strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level), health care & social assistance (12.0%), and retail trade. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population vs resident population count.

Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 6.3% while labour force rose by 5.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw employment contract by 0.6%, labour force fall by 0.7%, and a smaller reduction in unemployment of 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these projections to Longwarry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Longwarry, median income is $50,635 and average income is $59,820. This is lower than national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Regional Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $54,812 (median) and $64,755 (average). Census data indicates that incomes in Longwarry rank modestly, between the 33rd and 35th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 37.9% of residents (1,176 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Longwarry, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Longwarry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Longwarry, as per the latest Census evaluation, 90.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 9.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is similar to Regional Vic., which had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Longwarry stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.5% and rented ones at 21.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,473, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Longwarry was $330, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Longwarry's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,473 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $330 compared to the national figure of $375.

Longwarry has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 31.0% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Longwarry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (36.0%). Educational participation is high at 30.3%, comprising primary education (12.0%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (3.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Longwarry has three active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by four distinct routes, collectively facilitating 274 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically situated 441 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Longwarry residents commute outward, with cars remaining the primary mode of transportation at 95%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 39 trips per day, equating to approximately 91 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Longwarry is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Longwarry faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment, conducted in 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be substantial across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover was relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~1,567 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma were the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 10.8 and 9.8% of residents respectively. However, 64.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the Regional Vic. average of 63.4%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, 12.2% of Longwarry's residents were aged 65 and over (378 people), which is lower than the Regional Vic. average of 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Longwarry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Longwarry, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 87.9% citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion (41.3%). While Judaism's representation was similar to regional averages (0.1%), notable ancestry differences included Australian (37.1%, vs regional average of 29.6%), English (30.9%) and Irish (7.9%).

Overrepresentation of Dutch (2.7% vs regional 1.7%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.2%) and Sri Lankan (0.4% vs 0.1%) ethnic groups was observed.

Longwarry hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The median age in Longwarry is 33 years, which is considerably lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and substantially under the national average of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 18.4% locally, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.6%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the area has become younger, with median age dropping to 33 years from 34 between 2016 and 2021. Notable shifts include the 35 to 44 age group growing from 13.4% to 15.8%, and the 25 to 34 cohort increasing from 16.9% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.0% to 8.5%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 12.5% to 11.1%. By 2041, Longwarry is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25 to 34 group growing by 46% (261 people), reaching 832 from 570.