Longwarry

Longwarry lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Longwarry is around 2,928 people. This reflects a growth of 492 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,436 people. The current resident population estimate of 2,925 by AreaSearch was derived from examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 85 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 59 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth rate of 20.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 4.3% and the state average, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors. AreaSearch's projections for Longwarry are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas nationally, with an expected expansion of 963 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 32.8% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Longwarry among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Longwarry had around 76 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 384 homes. So far in FY-26, 21 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this figure increased to 4.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity of the area and potential supply constraints. New properties are constructed at an average value of $405,000, targeting the premium market segment.

In FY-26, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited commercial development focus. Recent construction comprises 94.0% detached houses and 6.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Longwarry's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 109 people per approval, Longwarry reflects a developing area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Longwarry is expected to grow by 960 residents through to 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Longwarry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A single project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Gippsland Line Upgrade - Bunyip and Longwarry Stations, Warragul and Drouin Precinct Structure Plans, Additional VLocity Trains, and Marinus Link, with the following list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Longwarry shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Longwarry has a diverse workforce consisting of both white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector is notably prominent in the area's employment landscape, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% as of December 2025. This figure is lower than Regional Vic.'s unemployment rate of 3.7%.

Over the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 7.8% based on AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 1,475 residents in Longwarry are employed, with a workforce participation rate of 67.5%, which is higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 61.0%. According to Census responses, 14.7% of residents work from home. Employment opportunities are concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade sectors.

Longwarry has a particularly high specialization in the construction sector, with an employment share that is 1.6 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 12.0% compared to Regional Vic.'s average of 16.8%. Over the year ending December 2025, employment in Longwarry increased by 7.8%, while the labour force grew by 7.4%. This resulted in a decrease in the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. Looking ahead, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Longwarry's current employment mix indicates a potential local employment growth of 5.8% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, although these estimates are based on simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Longwarry had an income level below the national average in the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $50,635 and the average income stood at $59,820. These figures compared to those of Regional Vic., which were $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimates for March 2026 would be approximately $55,506 (median) and $65,575 (average). According to figures from the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Longwarry ranked modestly, between the 33rd and 35th percentiles. Income brackets indicated that the largest segment comprised 37.9% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,109 residents), aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represented 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Longwarry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Longwarry, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 90.2% houses and 9.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Regional Vic.'s dwelling structure of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. In Longwarry, home ownership stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.5% and rented dwellings at 21.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,473, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $330, compared to Regional Vic.'s averages of $1,430 and $285 respectively. Nationally, Longwarry's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Longwarry has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 71.7% of all households, including 31.0% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Longwarry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (36.0%). Educational participation is high at 30.3%, with 12.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates three active public transport stops in Longwarry. These comprise a mix of train services, with four individual routes operating collectively to facilitate 274 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility rating for transport is moderate, with residents typically residing 441 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 95%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.6 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 39 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 91 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Longwarry is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Longwarry. AreaSearch's assessment found notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 51% (~1,479 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues affect 10.8% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.8%. Around 64.5% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. The working-age population faces substantial health challenges with higher chronic condition rates. Longwarry has 13.2% (386 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligned with national rankings.

Longwarry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Longwarry showed low cultural diversity, with 87.9% citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 41.3%. Judaism's representation was slightly higher than regional average (0.1% vs 0.1%).

Ancestry-wise, Australian (37.1%) and English (30.9%) were prominent, exceeding regional averages of 29.6% and 25.8%, respectively. Irish ancestry was also notable at 7.9%. Some ethnic groups showed significant divergence: Dutch (2.7% vs regional 1.7%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.2%), and Sri Lankan (0.4% vs 0.1%).

Longwarry hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The median age in Longwarry is 33 years, which is lower than Regional Victoria's average of 43 and significantly below the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group is notably over-represented at 17.6% locally compared to Regional Vic.'s average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.9%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35-44 age group has grown from 13.4% to 15.5%, and the 55-64 cohort has declined from 12.5% to 11.0%, with the 45-54 group dropping from 10.0% to 8.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Longwarry, with the 25-34 age group projected to grow by 53% (275 people), reaching 791 from 516.