Longwarry

Longwarry lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Longwarry is around 3,103, reflecting a 27.4% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,436. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,836 in Jun 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 63 persons per square kilometer. Longwarry's growth exceeded the Rest of Vic. (8.1%) and the national average, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed about 77.0% to overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch projects that by 2041, based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb's population will increase by 1,125 persons, reflecting a total increase of 23.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas across the nation is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 1,125 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting with an increase of 23.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Longwarry among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Longwarry has seen approximately 75 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 379 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year arriving per new home in Longwarry is 1.1 over these five financial years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $405,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This year, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Longwarry's residential character.

Building activity comprises 94.0% standalone homes and 6.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character appealing to those seeking space. With around 111 people per dwelling approval, Longwarry exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Longwarry is projected to add 735 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Longwarry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Gippsland Line Upgrade - Bunyip and Longwarry Stations, Warragul and Drouin Precinct Structure Plan, Additional VLocity Trains, Marinus Link.

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The employment environment in Longwarry shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Longwarry has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.5% and estimated employment growth of 5.1% in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of September 2025, 1,371 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation is at 65.8%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census data shows that 14.7% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in construction (strongly specialized with a share 1.6 times the regional level), health care & social assistance (12.0%), and retail trade. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population.

In the past year, employment increased by 5.1% while labour force grew by 4.9%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7%, labour force fell by 0.6%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Longwarry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Longwarry, median income is $50,635 and average income is $59,820. This is lower than the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Rest of Vic. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $54,812 and average income $64,755, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that incomes in Longwarry rank modestly, between the 33rd and 35th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 37.9% of residents (1,176 people), similar to regional levels where 30.3% are in this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Longwarry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Longwarry's dwelling structures in its latest Census comprised 90.2% houses and 9.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Longwarry stood at 26.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (52.5%) or rented (21.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,473, exceeding Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Longwarry was $330, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Longwarry's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Longwarry has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 31.0% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Longwarry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (36.0%). Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 12.0% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates three active transport stops operating within Longwarry. These comprise a mix of train services and are served by four individual routes, collectively facilitating 274 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically situated 441 meters from the nearest transport stop. As predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 91 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Longwarry is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Longwarry faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 51% (~1,567 people) of Longwarry's total population has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 10.8 and 9.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic. The working-age population experiences notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Longwarry has 11.9% (369 people) of its residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning broadly with national rankings for the general population.

Longwarry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Longwarry, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity with 87.9% citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated with 41.3%. Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

Ancestry showed high Australian (37.1%) and English (30.9%) representation, both above regional averages of 29.6% and 25.4% respectively. Irish ancestry was also notable at 7.9%. Dutch (2.7%), Hungarian (0.4%), and Sri Lankan (0.4%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.7%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively.

Longwarry hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The median age in Longwarry was 33 years as of the 2021 Census, significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and substantially below the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age cohort was notably over-represented in Longwarry at 18.2%, compared to the Rest of Vic. average, while the 65-74 year-olds were under-represented at 7.5%. Post-Census data shows a decrease in median age from 34 years to 33 years between 2016 and 2021. During this period, the proportion of the population aged 35-44 increased from 13.4% to 15.7%, while those aged 25-34 grew from 16.9% to 18.2%. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 45-54 declined from 10.0% to 8.3%, and those aged 55-64 dropped from 12.5% to 10.8%. By 2041, Longwarry's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 41%, reaching 795 people from 564, while the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 3 people.