Longwarry

Longwarry lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of Nov 2025, Longwarry's estimated population is around 3112. This reflects an increase of 676 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2436. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 2836 residents in Jun 2024, based on latest ABS ERP data release, and 63 additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 63 persons per square kilometer. Longwarry's growth rate of 27.8% since the 2021 census exceeded non-metro areas (7.9%) and national averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Longwarry statistical area is forecasted to increase by 1120 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 23.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Longwarry among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Longwarry shows approximately 75 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 379 homes. As of FY26, there have been 15 approvals recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $405,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year has seen $7.7 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Building activity comprises 94% standalone homes and 6% attached dwellings, maintaining Longwarry's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With approximately 111 people per dwelling approval, Longwarry exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Longwarry is projected to add 726 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Longwarry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects are Gippsland Line Upgrade - Bunyip and Longwarry Stations, Warragul and Drouin Precinct Structure Plan, Additional VLocity Trains, and Marinus Link. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Longwarry shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Longwarry has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.5% and estimated employment growth of 5.2% in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 1,373 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is at 61.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance employs only 12.0% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 16.8%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 5.2%, while labour force grew by 4.9%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7% and unemployment rose slightly. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts suggest employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 12.3% over ten years in Longwarry, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Longwarry has lower incomes compared to national averages. The median income is $50,635 and the average is $59,820. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s figures are a median income of $50,954 and an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $54,812 (median) and $64,755 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Longwarry rank modestly, between the 33rd and 35th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the majority of residents, 37.9% or 1,179 people, fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, mirroring regional levels where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Longwarry, with only 83.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Longwarry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile

Longwarry's dwellings were 90.2% houses and 9.8% other types at the latest Census. Home ownership was 26.4%, with 52.5% of dwellings mortgaged and 21.1% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,473, and the median weekly rent was $330. Nationally, Longwarry's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were below the national figure of $375.

Longwarry has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 31.0% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

Longwarry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (36.0%). Educational participation is high at 30.3%, including primary education (12.0%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (3.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows three active transport stops operating in Longwarry. These include a mix of train and bus services. Four individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 274 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 441 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 91 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Longwarry is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Longwarry faces significant health challenges with a higher prevalence of common conditions compared to average. Among older age groups, this prevalence is even higher.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51% (~1,572 people), lower than the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 10.8 and 9.8% of residents respectively. In contrast, 64.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Rest of Vic. The area has 12.3% of residents aged 65 and over (382 people). Health outcomes among seniors require particular attention due to the challenges they present.

Longwarry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Longwarry showed low cultural diversity, with 87.9% citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated Longwarry's religion at 41.3%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to None% in the rest of Vic..

Top ancestry groups were Australian (37.1%), English (30.9%), and Irish (7.9%). Dutch, Hungarian, and Sri Lankan groups showed notable divergences: Dutch at 2.7% (vs None% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (vs None%), and Sri Lankan at 0.4% (vs None%).

Longwarry hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The median age in Longwarry is 33 years, which is significantly lower than Victoria's average of 43 years and also substantially below the national average of 38 years. Compared to Victoria's average, the age group of 25-34 years is notably over-represented in Longwarry at 17.7%, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 7.7%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 13.4% to 15.1%, while the age groups of 55-64 and 45-54 have decreased from 12.5% to 11.1% and 10.0% to 8.7%, respectively. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Longwarry, with the age group of 25-34 projected to grow by 45% (from 550 to 800 people), while both the age groups of 65-74 and 55-64 are expected to decrease.