Longwarry

Longwarry lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Longwarry is around 2,964 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,436 people, marking a growth of 528 individuals (21.7%). AreaSearch validated this estimate using the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and additional 63 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 60 persons per square kilometer. Longwarry's growth rate exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, driven primarily by interstate migration contributing approximately 77.0% of overall population gains. Other factors such as natural growth and overseas migration also played positive roles.

AreaSearch projections for the suburb are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, while VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections adjusted by weighted aggregation method are used for areas not covered by ABS data. For years 2032 to 2041, growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas. By 2041, the suburb is forecasted to increase its population by 1,156 persons, reflecting a total increase of 30.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Longwarry among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Longwarry has seen approximately 78 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 390 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. The average new resident arrival per year per new home is around 1.1 between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $405,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. In the current financial year, $23.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity.

Building activity comprises 92% standalone homes and 8% attached dwellings, maintaining Longwarry's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With approximately 85 people per dwelling approval, the area exhibits growth characteristics. Future projections estimate Longwarry to add 910 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to adequately meet demand and create favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Longwarry has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. One major project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Key projects include Gippsland Line Upgrade - Bunyip and Longwarry Stations, Warragul and Drouin Precinct Structure Plan, Additional VLocity Trains, and Marinus Link, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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While Longwarry retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.7%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Longwarry has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.7% as of June 2025.

This rate is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Longwarry is 61.8%, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs are less prevalent at 3.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12 months prior to June 2025, Longwarry's labour force increased by 0.1%, while employment decreased by 0.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5% and the labour force grew by 4.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that Longwarry's employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Longwarry's median income among taxpayers is $50,630. The average income in Longwarry was $59,843 during this period. Both figures are lower than the national averages. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 and the average was $73,761 in the same year. Based on a 12.16% increase from the Wage Price Index since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $56,787 (median) and $67,120 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Longwarry rank modestly, between the 33rd and 35th percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant in Longwarry, with 37.9% of residents (1,123 people) falling into this range. This pattern is also seen regionally, where 32.8% occupy the same income bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Longwarry, with only 83.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Longwarry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Longwarry, as per the latest Census, 90.2% of dwellings were houses while 9.9% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. Melbourne metro had 0% houses and 0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Longwarry stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged properties at 52.5% and rented ones at 21.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,473, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. Median weekly rent was $330, unlike Melbourne metro which had no recorded figures. Nationally, Longwarry's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Longwarry has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households account for 71.7% of all households, including 31.0% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

Longwarry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.6%, significantly below Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 8.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 46.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (36.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.0% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education. Longwarry Primary School serves the local community, with an enrollment of 148 students as of 2021. The school provides balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 950) and focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. As of 2020, there is a low ratio of 5.0 school places per 100 residents, indicating many local students attend schools outside the immediate area.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Longwarry has three operational public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by eleven different routes, together facilitating 371 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is assessed as moderate, with residents on average situated 441 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 53 trips per day, equating to around 123 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Longwarry is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health challenges in Longwarry, with a notably higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to average, particularly among older age groups.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~1,498 people). Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 10.8 and 9.8% of residents respectively. In contrast, 64.5% of Longwarry's residents reported having no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 12.3% of residents aged 65 and over (364 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population due to the specific challenges they face.

Longwarry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Longwarry was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 87.9% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia on 88.5%, and speaking English only at home on 95.2%. The primary religion in Longwarry is Christianity, comprising 41.3% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to None% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), Australians make up 37.1%, English 30.9%, and Irish 7.9%. Dutch ethnicity is notably overrepresented at 2.7% in Longwarry, with Hungarian at 0.4%, and Sri Lankan also at 0.4%, compared to None% regionally for all three groups.

Longwarry hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Longwarry has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Longwarry has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 years (14.7%) but fewer residents aged 45-54 years (8.7%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 years has increased from 13.4% to 15.1%, while the 15-24 age group has risen from 10.2% to 11.3%. Conversely, the 55-64 age cohort has decreased from 12.5% to 11.1%, and the 45-54 age group has fallen from 10.0% to 8.7%. Population forecasts for Longwarry in 2041 suggest significant demographic shifts, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to grow by 53%, adding 279 residents to reach a total of 807. Meanwhile, the 65-74 age cohort is expected to grow by a modest 5% (an increase of 10 people).