Cranbourne West
Statistical Area - sa2

Cranbourne West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne West's population was approximately 25,218 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 3,683 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,535. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 24,908 in June 2024 and an additional 486 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,954 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne West's growth rate of 17.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.6%) and state averages, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 38.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate exceptional growth, placing Cranbourne West in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally, with an expected increase of 13,856 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, indicating a total increase of 53.7% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne West has recorded approximately 442 residential properties granted approval each year. Development approval data, produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, shows 2,214 homes over the past five financial years from FY-20 to FY-25, with an additional 28 approved in FY-26. On average, 3.7 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed annually between FY-20 and FY-25, indicating demand outpaces supply, which typically influences prices upward and intensifies competition among buyers. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $437,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

This financial year has seen $114.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne West exhibits 19.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks at the 59th percentile nationally, indicating strong developer confidence. New developments consist of 55.0% detached houses and 45.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the area's existing housing composition of 83.0% houses, suggesting decreasing developable sites and evolving lifestyles requiring diverse, affordable housing options. With around 254 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne West presents a developing market. Population forecasts predict an addition of 13,540 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially exceeding current growth forecasts.

Population forecasts indicate Cranbourne West will gain 13,540 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Cranbourne West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 35 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Cranbourne West Distribution Centre, ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, RISE, Hall Road, Cranbourne West, and Harli. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Cranbourne West remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cranbourne West has a skilled workforce with prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in June 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%.

As of June 2025, there are 13,077 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.0%, which is 0.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne West is 69.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing employs 25.3% of local workers, which is 1.8 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services employ only 4.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment levels increased by 3.7% in Cranbourne West during the year to June 2025, with labour force increasing by 4.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an unemployment rate increase of 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows that Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year (adding 39,880 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May 2025, suggest that Cranbourne West's employment could grow by approximately 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Cranbourne West had a median taxpayer income of $54,632 and an average income of $61,935 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be approximately $60,155 (median) and $68,197 (average). Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne West cluster around the 58th percentile nationally. In terms of income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 45.2% of residents (11,398 people), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represented 32.8%. High housing costs consumed 19.0% of income, however strong earnings placed disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally, and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Cranbourne West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Cranbourne West, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne West was 12.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.3% and rented ones at 22.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne West was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne West's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne West features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.0% of all households, including 48.0% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.0%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Cranbourne West performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Cranbourne West faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 23.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (13.9%) and certificates (23.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.0% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education. As of 2021, Cranbourne West's four schools have a combined enrollment of 4,662 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1012) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between two primary and two secondary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne West has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 2,289 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is rated as good, with residents on average being located 302 meters from their nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 327 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne West's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cranbourne West's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger age groups having a notably low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 51% (~12,760 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.6 and 6.9% of residents respectively. Notably, 76.4% declared no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's figure. The area has a lower proportion (8.5%) of seniors aged 65 and over (2,138 people) compared to Greater Melbourne at 9.6%. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, they still present fewer challenges overall.

Cranbourne West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne West has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.0% of its population born overseas and 44.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne West, comprising 36.4% of the population. The category 'Other' is notably overrepresented in Cranbourne West compared to Greater Melbourne, with 9.0% versus 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (24.3%), Australian (19.0%), and English (18.4%). Certain ethnic groups show notable differences: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 1.6%, Indian at 9.5%, and Samoan at 1.6%.

Cranbourne West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of Cranbourne West is 32 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.8%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35 to 44 has increased from 18.5% to 19.8%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 19.0% to 16.3%. The 0 to 4 age group has also dropped from 10.1% to 8.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Cranbourne West's age profile. Notably, the 45 to 54 cohort is projected to grow by 100%, adding 2,804 residents to reach a total of 5,604.