Cranbourne West

Cranbourne West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne West's population was around 25,275 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 3,740 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,535. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,907 in June 2024 and an additional 505 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 1,959 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne West's growth of 17.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 38.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth was predicted over the period, placing Cranbourne West in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation. The area was expected to increase by 13,856 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 53.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne West has recorded approximately 276 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,381 homes were approved, with an additional 54 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 3.7 people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years.

This indicates substantial demand outpacing supply, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $185,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, there have been $114.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne West has 14.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 58th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This activity is substantially higher than the national average, indicating strong developer confidence in the location.

New developments consist of 55.0% detached houses and 45.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 83.0% houses). This change reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 254 people moving to Cranbourne West for each dwelling approval, it shows a developing market. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by approximately 13,483 residents. While construction is maintaining pace with population growth, increasing competition among buyers can be expected as the population continues to rise.

Cranbourne West has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects that may impact the area. Notable ones include ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, RISE, Hall Road, Cranbourne West, Cranbourne West Distribution Centre, and Harli. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Cranbourne West has been broadly consistent with national averages

Cranbourne West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.8% over the past year.

As of that date, 13,468 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne West was 69.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing particularly stands out with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

In contrast, professional & technical services employed only 4.4% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, while labour force grew by 5.3%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne West's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Cranbourne West SA2 was $54,632 and the average was $61,935 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. These figures were lower than national averages. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. As of September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, estimated incomes would be approximately $61,275 (median) and $69,466 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne West cluster around the 58th percentile nationally. The income distribution reveals that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 45.2% of residents, which is similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 19.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Cranbourne West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cranbourne West's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metropolitan area's dwelling composition of 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne West stood at 12.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.3% and rented ones at 22.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,950. The median weekly rent was $380, slightly higher than the national average of $375 but lower than Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne West's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863.

Cranbourne West features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.0% of all households, including 48.0% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.0%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Cranbourne West performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 37.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 13.9% and certificates for 23.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.0% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne West has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 2,289 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 302 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 327 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne West's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cranbourne West shows excellent health outcomes, particularly for younger age groups with low prevalence of common conditions.

Approximately 51% (~12,789 people) have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.6%) and mental health issues (6.9%), while 76.4% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. In Cranbourne West, 8.5% (~2,143 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

Cranbourne West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne West has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.0% of its population born overseas and 44.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne West, making up 36.4% of the population. However, there is an overrepresentation of 'Other' religions, comprising 9.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (24.3%), Australian (19.0%), and English (18.4%). Notably, Sri Lankan, Samoan, and Indian ethnicities have higher representation in Cranbourne West than the regional average: Sri Lankan at 1.6% vs 2.2%, Samoan at 1.6% vs 1.3%, and Indian at 9.5% vs 9.2%.

Cranbourne West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne West has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.8%). Post-2021 Census data indicates that the age group of 35 to 44 has increased from 18.5% to 19.8%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 19.0% to 16.3%. The 0 to 4 age group has also declined, from 10.1% to 8.9%. Demographic projections suggest that Cranbourne West's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 45 to 54 cohort, which is projected to increase by 100%, adding 2,798 residents to reach a total of 5,604.