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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Carrum Downs has an estimated 23,549 residents, up from 21,976 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,573 people, or 7.2%. Growth has averaged 0.9% a year over five years. 605 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. Overseas migration accounts for 52.0% of that increase. That puts 1,160 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to the latest calculations from AreaSearch based on ABS regional figures and newly confirmed addresses, the suburb of Carrum Downs has an approximate population of 23,549 as of May 2026. Comparing this to the 2021 Census count of 21,976 people, the area has expanded by 1,573 people (7.2%). This shift is determined from a resident population base of 23,464 calculated by AreaSearch using the June 2025 ABS ERP publication, alongside 605 validated new addresses since the Census date. With these numbers, the population density stands at 1,159 persons per square kilometer, aligning closely with typical levels across similar locations.
The 7.2% growth rate of the suburb of Carrum Downs since the 2021 census outpaced both the broader SA4 region (3.2%) and the SA3 area, establishing it as a primary growth driver. Overseas arrivals were the primary driver, accounting for roughly 52.0% of the overall population expansion in recent times. Projections for each SA2 region released in 2024 (using 2022 as a baseline) from the ABS and Geoscience Australia are utilized. For any SA2 sectors lacking this dataset, figures are drawn from the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections, which have been adjusted by aggregating LGA population increases to SA2 levels. Growth rates across specific age cohorts derived from these models are also projected forward for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these combined SA2 projections, the suburb of Carrum Downs is set to experience population growth that exceeds the median of areas evaluated, with an estimated rise of 4,059 residents by 2041, representing a total expansion of 16.9% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
517 new dwellings have been approved in Carrum Downs over the past five years, an average of 103 a year. That is 4.6 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 117 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 38% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 34, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
AreaSearch's evaluation of building approvals from the ABS indicates that local development averaged approximately 103 new residential approvals annually. This includes an estimated 517 dwellings authorized over the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), with an additional 32 approved during the current FY-26. Each constructed home coincided with a gain of 2.1 new residents per year over the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating strong demand that is likely to bolster housing values. The average estimated cost of these new builds is $374,000. Additionally, non-residential commercial approvals reached $79.1 million during this financial year, reflecting substantial investment from the business sector.
Relative to Greater Melbourne, construction activity in the area is somewhat elevated, running 47.0% above the regional per capita average over the 5 year period, offering options for buyers while helping maintain existing property values, despite a recent slowdown in building pace. Of the new housing starts, standalone houses constitute 38.0%, whereas townhouses or multi-unit dwellings make up 62.0%. This orientation towards higher density offers budget-friendly pathways and appeals to downsizers, property investors, and first-time buyers. This trend represents a major departure from the current neighborhood mix, where houses make up 79.0% of properties, indicating fewer available parcels of land and responding to changing preferences and budget limits. The area records about 1170 people per dwelling approval, showing a mature property market. Over the coming years, population modeling suggests the local resident base will expand by 3,974 people up to 2041, starting from the most recent quarterly calculation. While building starts are moving in tandem with these projections, home buyers may face increased competition as the local population expands.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Carrum Downs
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 9 current infrastructure and development projects inside Carrum Downs, worth an estimated $305 million. A further 74 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $12.9 billion. 21 are already under construction and 22 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure updates, major construction projects, and zoning plans are key drivers of regional growth. AreaSearch has tracked 15 major projects that are expected to influence the local area. Notable developments include townhouses at 42-50 Hall Road, multi-use courts at Lavender Hill Reserve, townhouses at 21 Mccormicks Road, and improvements to the Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve, with specific details on the most significant projects listed below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
42-50 Hall Road Townhouses
Prime residential development site with permit approval for 59 townhouses, sold by Catholic Archdiocese of Melbourne in 2021. Located on 1.8 hectares with General Residential (R1Z) zoning, featuring efficient site configuration and extensive frontage onto Hall Road. Adjoining St Joachim's Catholic Primary School with proximity to Seaford Train Station, Eastlink (M3), Carrum Downs Shopping Centre and Sandhurst Golf Club.
Aspen Skye
Boutique residential land estate of around 180 residential lots located on the corner of Ballarto Road and McCormicks Road in Skye, featuring direct frontage to the planned Skye Activity Centre and wetlands precinct.
Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts
Two new multi-use courts at Lavender Hill Reserve, Carrum Downs and Pratt Reserve in Frankston South. Construction began in early 2024 to provide enhanced sporting facilities for local community including basketball, netball and tennis court options.
110 Cadles Road Townhouses
Boutique development of 13 townhouses (2, 3 and 4 bedroom designs) at 110 Cadles Road by Thomas Anderson Design. Features full turn-key inclusions package including stainless steel appliances, ducted heating, landscaping, fencing and driveways. Located within walking distance of schools and shopping centre.
Sandford Estate
162 modern townhomes at 26 Brunnings Road, Carrum Downs delivered by Metricon TownLiving with Modus Developments and Newland Developers. Two, three and four bedroom townhomes with turn-key inclusions in a secluded enclave, connected by green links and pocket parks. Works began after 2019 approvals and dwellings were progressively released; by 2025 the estate is occupied and operating, indicating practical completion.
21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses
A boutique development of 7 contemporary townhouses currently under construction in Carrum Downs. The two-storey townhouses offer modern family living in a convenient location close to Carrum Downs Shopping Centre, schools, and public transport. Construction commenced in 2024 with completion scheduled for early 2025.
Sandhurst Gardens Estate
A master planned residential community in Skye in Melbourne's south east, featuring around 450 residential lots, local parks, wetlands and a future neighbourhood retail precinct, delivered by Frasers Property and Caydon.
Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements
149 new formalised car parking spaces, new public toilets close to play space, improved pedestrian access, traffic flow and public lighting at Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve. Project aims to cater to needs of growing community and improve facilities for reserve users.
12,822 residents of Carrum Downs are employed, from a labour force of 13,461. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 70.0%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local community holds a diverse range of skills, with the building sector showing exceptionally strong representation. The unemployment rate is 4.7%, showing steady employment patterns over the past year based on aggregated regional data. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 12,822, with the jobless rate matching the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8%, and the participation rate aligning with the metropolitan average of 70.2%. Census data indicates that a moderate 16.4% of the working population performed their jobs from home, although this figure was likely influenced by pandemic restrictions. The major employment sectors for local workers are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.
Construction is highly concentrated locally, employing people at 1.5 times the regional average rate. In contrast, professional & technical services are underrepresented, accounting for 4.4% of workers compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 10.1%. At the time of the Census, there were 0.6 jobs available for every working resident, reflecting a higher volume of local career opportunities than typically seen. Based on ABS and SALM figures aggregated from regional datasets, the year ending March 2026 saw employment expand by 0.4% and the labor force rise by 0.2%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Greater Melbourne experienced a 2.1% increase in employment, a 2.3% rise in the labor force, and a 0.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment projections from May-25 offer additional perspective on potential future demand in the area. These five and ten-year projections have been correlated with local employment structures to anticipate growth patterns. Although overall national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the rates of change differ widely by sector. Weighting these sectoral projections against the local job profile suggests employment in the area could rise by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a basic weighted projection that does not factor in localized population changes.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Carrum Downs is $1,658 a week (about $86,000 a year), with median personal income at $817 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $53,792 a year against an average of $59,706. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Aggregated tax data from the ATO for the financial year 2023 indicates that taxpayers in the suburb of Carrum Downs recorded a median income of $53,792 and an average income of $59,706. These figures sit below national benchmarks and compare to medians of $57,688 and averages of $75,164 across Greater Melbourne. Adjusting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be around $58,967 for the median and $65,450 for the average. Census results from 2021 show that household, family, and individual incomes are modest, falling between the 45th and 52nd percentiles.
Looking at the income brackets, 40.1% of the local population (9,443 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, which is comparable to the 32.8% of residents across the wider region in this bracket. Affordability pressures are high, with residents retaining only 81.9% of their income, which puts the area in the 43rd percentile for disposable income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Carrum Downs had 8,307 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 79% detached houses and 0% apartments. 49% are owned with a mortgage, 28% rented and 23% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $370 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 22.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 24.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, residential properties in the suburb of Carrum Downs consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% semi-detached dwellings, townhouses, and apartments, compared to Greater Melbourne where houses make up 67.9% and alternative options account for 32.1%. Outright home ownership stood at 22.9%, which is lower than the metropolitan rate, with the remaining properties occupied by mortgage holders (49.0%) or renters (28.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,733 was lower than the metropolitan median of $2,000, while the weekly rent median was $370, compared to the Melbourne metro average of $390.
Across Australia, local mortgage payments are below the national average of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Carrum Downs counted 8,307 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 8,902 today, averaging 2.5 people each. 31% are couples with children, against 22% couples without children. 27% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.5 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 70.1%, which includes couples with children (31.1%), couples without children (22.4%), and single parents (15.5%). The remaining 29.9% are non-family households, with single-person households representing 26.7% and group houses accounting for 3.1%. The average household size is 2.5 people, slightly below the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
17.0% of adults in Carrum Downs hold a university qualification, including 12.1% with a bachelor degree and 3.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.4% hold a vocational qualification. 5 schools serve the area, with 2,546 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,005 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Low levels of university completion present a challenge for the area, with only 17.0% of residents holding a degree compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This highlights a clear need and opportunity for focused educational programs. Among degree holders, bachelor qualifications are the most common at 12.1%, with postgraduate degrees at 3.1% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational education is highly prevalent, as 41.2% of residents aged 15+ hold technical qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificate-level training (29.4%). A substantial portion of the community is currently engaged in study, with 27.7% of residents enrolled in formal education.
Primary school students make up 9.7% of this group, secondary students account for 7.2%, and tertiary students represent 3.5%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Carrum Downs reaches 105 stops on 6 routes, timetabled for about 1,600 services a week. The typical home sits about 210 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit analysis indicates there are 105 active transit stops in the area, consisting of bus services. These stops are connected to 6 distinct routes, which provide a total of 1,566 passenger trips per week. Accessibility is good, with residents living an average of 214 meters from their nearest transit point. The neighborhood is primarily residential, and most workers commute out of the area, with private vehicles being the primary mode of travel at 93%. Car ownership is 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. Work-from-home arrangements were utilized by 16.4% of residents at the time of the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.
Transit service frequency averages 223 trips daily across all active routes, which translates to roughly 14 weekly services per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest transit stops relative to the center of the area.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
65.6% of residents in Carrum Downs report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 83% of areas nationally. 6.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.5% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.1 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Data on mortality and the prevalence of long-term illnesses point to significant health struggles in the area, affecting both youth and elderly demographics. Additionally, the rate of private health insurance is low, covering approximately 50% of the local population (~11,887 people). This is below the Greater Melbourne rate of 56.7% and the national rate of 55.7%. The primary medical concerns identified in the area are mental health conditions and asthma, which affect 10.3 and 9.6% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 65.6% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne.
Long-term illness rates are elevated among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over make up 14.5% of the population (3,414 people), and health outcomes for this older cohort are generally in line with national averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
25.9% of Carrum Downs residents were born overseas and 18.2% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (27.1%) and Australian (25.3%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
The area displays higher levels of cultural diversity than most property markets, with 25.9% of the population born outside Australia and 18.2% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the main religious affiliation, representing 40.7% of residents. The most pronounced deviation from regional norms is in Judaism, which is practiced by 0.3% of the local population compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne. Looking at ancestral backgrounds, the three most common heritages are English at 27.1% (higher than the regional average of 20.1%), Australian at 25.3% (higher than the regional average of 18.4%), and Other at 9.5% (lower than the regional average of 14.6%).
Other ethnic groups show minor variations from regional averages, with Russian heritage at 0.6% (compared to 0.4% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (compared to 0.3%), and Sri Lankan at 0.7% (compared to 0.8%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Carrum Downs is 36. 27.0% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 36 years is close to the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and slightly below the Australian median of 38. The age distribution shows a larger share of residents in the 55 - 64 age bracket (12.1%) compared to Greater Melbourne, but a smaller share of young adults aged 15 - 24 (11.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 14.6% to 16.0%, while the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 16.8% to 15.5%. Future age-profile modeling suggests significant shifts by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 28%, adding 810 residents to reach 3,707, while the 0 to 4 group is expected to contract by 19 residents.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Carrum Downs
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2025 about a year ago all 9 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2025. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 605 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (21,976 at the 2021 Census → 23,549 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20508). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.