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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Carrum Downs has an estimated 23,564 residents, up from 21,976 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,588 people, or 7.2%. Growth has averaged 0.9% a year over five years. 612 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. Overseas migration accounts for 52.0% of that increase. That puts 1,160 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
In the suburb of Carrum Downs, the population stands at approximately 23,564 as of Aug 2026, according to AreaSearch evaluations combining broader ABS demographic updates with post-Census address validations. This represents a gain of 1,588 people (7.2%) compared to the 21,976 people documented during the 2021 Census. Such growth is based on an estimated resident population of 23,464 derived from the June 2025 ABS ERP figures, alongside 612 newly confirmed addresses post-dating the Census. The local population density corresponds to 1,160 persons per square kilometer, a figure broadly consistent with typical benchmarks across locations evaluated by AreaSearch.
Outpacing both the wider SA4 region (3.3%) and the SA3 area, the 7.2% expansion recorded in the suburb of Carrum Downs positions it as a regional growth frontrunner. Incoming overseas migration served as the core growth engine, generating around 52.0% of recent population additions. SA2-level projections from ABS/Geoscience Australia released in 2024 (using 2022 as a base year) form the foundation of AreaSearch demographic modelling for the suburb of Carrum Downs. Where SA2 coverage is absent, 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections are utilised via weighted aggregation from LGA down to SA2 boundaries, with age-bracket growth trajectories from these models projected across all localities for 2032 through 2041. Looking forward, the suburb of Carrum Downs is set for above-median growth relative to nationwide statistical areas. SA2-level aggregate forecasts indicate an influx of 4,015 persons by 2041, representing a cumulative increase of 16.6% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
517 new dwellings have been approved in Carrum Downs over the past five years, an average of 103 a year. That is 4.5 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 100 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 37% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 33, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Statistical area allocations of ABS building approvals compiled by AreaSearch indicate that annual residential approvals have averaged roughly 103 dwellings, yielding an estimated 517 homes across the previous 5 financial years. In FY-25 to date, 33 approvals have been logged. Over the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, an average annual gain of 2.1 new residents was recorded per constructed dwelling, demonstrating steady underlying demand that underpins local property values. Construction costs for these newly approved residences average $369,000, sitting beneath the broader regional benchmark and providing relatively accessible housing options.
Concurrently, commercial building approvals have reached $79.1 million during this financial year, pointing to significant local business capital expenditure. Per-capita building activity in the local market exceeds the Greater Melbourne regional benchmark by 23.0% across the 5 year period, sustaining healthy options for buyers while bolstering local real estate values, despite a moderation in development volumes over recent intervals. Approved dwellings comprise 37.0% detached dwellings alongside 63.0% medium and high-density housing. This strategic pivot toward higher-density development offers more attainable price points catering to downsizers, property investors, and first-home buyers. Marking a clear transition from the established built environment (presently 79.0% houses), this shift underscores dwindling greenfield land availability, evolving living preferences, and rising requirements for varied and attainable housing types. With roughly 767 people per approval, the locality displays the hallmarks of a fully established urban district. Looking toward 2041, long-term forecasts indicate an expansion of 3,915 residents based on latest quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. While the current pipeline of residential development is tracking anticipated population growth reasonably well, prospective buyers could encounter heightened competition over time as the resident community enlarges.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Carrum Downs
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 9 current infrastructure and development projects inside Carrum Downs, worth an estimated $305 million. A further 74 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $10.9 billion. 20 are already under construction and 22 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Civic infrastructure enhancements, planning schemes, and capital works play a crucial role in shaping community outcomes, with AreaSearch cataloguing 15 local projects poised to influence the immediate region. Prominent developments include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements, with key initiatives summarised below.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
42-50 Hall Road Townhouses
Prime residential development site with permit approval for 59 townhouses, sold by Catholic Archdiocese of Melbourne in 2021. Located on 1.8 hectares with General Residential (R1Z) zoning, featuring efficient site configuration and extensive frontage onto Hall Road. Adjoining St Joachim's Catholic Primary School with proximity to Seaford Train Station, Eastlink (M3), Carrum Downs Shopping Centre and Sandhurst Golf Club.
Aspen Skye
Boutique residential land estate of around 180 residential lots located on the corner of Ballarto Road and McCormicks Road in Skye, featuring direct frontage to the planned Skye Activity Centre and wetlands precinct.
Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts
Two new multi-use courts at Lavender Hill Reserve, Carrum Downs and Pratt Reserve in Frankston South. Construction began in early 2024 to provide enhanced sporting facilities for local community including basketball, netball and tennis court options.
110 Cadles Road Townhouses
Boutique development of 13 townhouses (2, 3 and 4 bedroom designs) at 110 Cadles Road by Thomas Anderson Design. Features full turn-key inclusions package including stainless steel appliances, ducted heating, landscaping, fencing and driveways. Located within walking distance of schools and shopping centre.
Sandford Estate
162 modern townhomes at 26 Brunnings Road, Carrum Downs delivered by Metricon TownLiving with Modus Developments and Newland Developers. Two, three and four bedroom townhomes with turn-key inclusions in a secluded enclave, connected by green links and pocket parks. Works began after 2019 approvals and dwellings were progressively released; by 2025 the estate is occupied and operating, indicating practical completion.
21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses
A boutique development of 7 contemporary townhouses currently under construction in Carrum Downs. The two-storey townhouses offer modern family living in a convenient location close to Carrum Downs Shopping Centre, schools, and public transport. Construction commenced in 2024 with completion scheduled for early 2025.
Sandhurst Gardens Estate
A master planned residential community in Skye in Melbourne's south east, featuring around 450 residential lots, local parks, wetlands and a future neighbourhood retail precinct, delivered by Frasers Property and Caydon.
Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements
149 new formalised car parking spaces, new public toilets close to play space, improved pedestrian access, traffic flow and public lighting at Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve. Project aims to cater to needs of growing community and improve facilities for reserve users.
12,822 residents of Carrum Downs are employed, from a labour force of 13,461. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 70.4%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The employment landscape in Carrum Downs is characterized by a highly capable labor pool, with the construction industry standing out for its significant share of jobs and a steady employment record over the previous twelve months, according to AreaSearch’s compilation of statistical area figures. By March 2026, 12,822 residents were employed, and the local unemployment rate matched the 4.8% observed in Greater Melbourne, while workforce participation equaled the 70.1% seen in the same metropolitan region. Survey data from the Census indicates that a moderate 16.4% of residents were working from home, though the lingering effects of Covid-19 lockdowns should be taken into account when interpreting these figures.
The primary employment fields absorbing local workers are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. The local labor market demonstrates distinct concentration in construction, where worker representation reaches 1.5 times the broader metropolitan standard. Conversely, professional & technical roles are comparatively sparse, accounting for 4.4% of local employment relative to 10.1% across Greater Melbourne. A Census ratio of 0.6 workers per resident points to an above-average supply of employment opportunities within the immediate area. Employment and labour force data from SALM and ABS, aggregated across larger statistical regions, show that during the period to March 2026, job numbers rose by 0.4% while the labour force grew by 0.2%, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment increasing by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Mar-26 provide additional context for anticipating future job demand in Carrum Downs. These projections, which span five and ten-year intervals, have been overlaid with the local employment structure to estimate how jobs may grow. Although national employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, expansion varies considerably across different industries. When these sector-specific forecasts are applied to Carrum Downs's current employment composition, local job growth is estimated at 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years. This calculation uses a basic weighting method for demonstration only and does not incorporate local population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Carrum Downs is $1,658 a week (about $86,000 a year), with median personal income at $817 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $53,792 a year against an average of $59,706. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO postcode statistics released by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 show local earnings tracking beneath national benchmarks, recording a median income of $53,792 and an average income of $59,706. These figures stand below Greater Melbourne, where median and average earnings were $57,688 and $75,164. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% recorded since financial year 2023, modeled earnings reach roughly $58,967 (median) and $65,450 (average) as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census situates personal, family, and household earnings across the area within the 45th to 52nd percentiles.
Income distribution shows a primary concentration in the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly bracket, capturing 40.1% of residents (9,449 residents), similar to the wider regional share of 32.8%. Substantial mortgage and rental pressures leave households with 81.9% of income remaining, placing the area in the 43rd percentile for affordability.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Carrum Downs had 8,307 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 79% detached houses and 0% apartments. 49% are owned with a mortgage, 28% rented and 23% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $370 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 22.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 24.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The local housing stock at the most recent Census consisted of 79.1% houses alongside 20.8% other dwellings (incorporating apartments, semi-detached properties, and 'other' dwellings), differing from the Melbourne metro profile of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Outright home ownership levels trailed the metropolitan standard at 22.9%, while remaining properties were classified as mortgaged (49.0%) or rented (28.1%). Typical monthly mortgage commitments stood well below metropolitan levels at $1,733, with median weekly rental costs recorded at $370, compared to $2,000 and $390 across Melbourne metro. In a nationwide context, local mortgage servicing costs sit below the Australian benchmark of $1,863, and weekly rents remain lower than the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Carrum Downs counted 8,307 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 8,907 today, averaging 2.5 people each. 31% are couples with children, against 22% couples without children. 27% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.5 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the bulk of living arrangements at 70.1% of all local households, divided between couples with children (31.1%), couples without children (22.4%), and single parent families (15.5%). Non-family living situations make up 29.9% of households, consisting primarily of lone person households (26.7%) alongside group households (3.1%). The median household size of 2.5 people sits slightly beneath the Greater Melbourne figure of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
17.0% of adults in Carrum Downs hold a university qualification, including 12.1% with a bachelor degree and 3.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.4% hold a vocational qualification. 5 schools serve the area, with 2,546 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,005 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The local community experiences tertiary education attainment gaps, with university qualification rates at 17.0% compared to 37.0% across Greater Melbourne, highlighting potential for focused educational programs. Among degree holders, bachelor degrees represent 12.1%, postgraduate qualifications make up 3.1%, and graduate diplomas account for 1.8%. Vocational and technical training is widely held, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational credentials, including certificates (29.4%) and advanced diplomas (11.8%). Formal study engagement is substantial throughout the community, with 27.7% of residents attending educational institutions. This comprises 9.7% enrolled in primary education, 7.2% undertaking secondary schooling, and 3.5% engaged in tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Carrum Downs reaches 105 stops on 6 routes, timetabled for about 3,700 services a week. The typical home sits about 210 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transportation networks include 105 active transit stops distributed across the suburb, offering a variety of bus services. These stops are served by 6 routes that generate a collective 3,746 weekly passenger journeys. Access to services is strong, with typical walking distances to the closest boarding point averaging 214 meters. As an established residential community, outbound commuting is common, and private vehicles remain the dominant travel mode at 93%. Households maintain an average vehicle ownership rate of 1.4 per dwelling. Additionally, 16.4% of employed residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, a figure potentially influenced by COVID-19 settings.
Transit service schedules deliver an average of 535 daily trips across the entire network, translating to roughly 35 trips weekly per individual stop. The accompanying mapping highlights the 100 closest transit locations relative to the central point.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
65.6% of residents in Carrum Downs report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 83% of areas nationally. 6.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.5% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.1 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Public health metrics reviewed by AreaSearch regarding chronic illness and mortality indicate notable health considerations locally, with medical conditions evident across both younger and older demographics, while private health insurance uptake stands at approximately 50% of residents (~11,895 people). This level is lower than the Greater Melbourne rate of 56.7% and trails the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma represent the most frequently reported health concerns, diagnosed in 10.3 and 9.6% of residents, respectively, whereas 65.6% reported no long-term medical conditions compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne.
Chronic illness incidence is elevated within the working-age population. Furthermore, residents aged 65 and over comprise 14.2% of the local population (3,346 people), with older cohort health measures generally aligning with wider national trends despite some recorded challenges.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
25.9% of Carrum Downs residents were born overseas and 18.2% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (27.1%) and Australian (25.3%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in the locality is higher than in most surrounding residential markets, with 25.9% of residents born abroad and 18.2% using a language other than English in their households. Christianity forms the largest religious community at 40.7% of residents. The most pronounced specific overrepresentation is observed in Judaism, accounting for 0.3% of the local population in comparison to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne. Examining ancestral background based on parental birthplace, the leading lineages are English at 27.1% (exceeding the regional benchmark of 20.1%), Australian at 25.3% (above the 18.4% regional average), and Other at 9.5% (below the regional share of 14.6%).
Other distinctive demographic representations include Russian ancestry at 0.6% (compared to 0.4% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (versus 0.3%), and Sri Lankan at 0.7% (compared to 0.8%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Carrum Downs is 36. 26.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Age distributions closely track Greater Melbourne figures, with all major demographic brackets staying within 2.1 percentage points of broader metropolitan proportions. The median age remains at an estimated 36, identical to the 2021 Census and 1 year below the metropolitan median of 37 recorded during that Census. Looking ahead to 2041, the most substantial population growth is projected among residents aged 65 and over, which is forecast to climb by 1,826 residents (55%) to reach 5,172.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Carrum Downs
8 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 8 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 3 sections | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2025 about a year ago all 9 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2025. | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 612 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (21,976 at the 2021 Census → 23,564 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20508). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.