Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Carrum Downs is around 23,549. This figure represents an increase of 1,573 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,976. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 23,464 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, along with an additional 605 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,159 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 7.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (3.2%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 4,059 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 16.9% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrum Downs recorded approximately 103 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 517 homes from FY21 to FY25. As of FY26, 26 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built has attracted an average of 2.2 new residents per year during this period.

The average construction value for new homes is $374,000. This financial year, Carrum Downs has registered $79.1 million in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs shows elevated construction activity, with a 47.0% increase per person over the past five years. However, development activity has moderated recently. Building activity is dominated by townhouses or apartments (62.0%), indicating a shift towards higher-density living to cater to affordability requirements and lifestyle demands.

The current housing mix stands at 79.0% houses. Carrum Downs has an established market with approximately 1156 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates the location will grow by 3,974 residents. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but increased competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Carrum Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 McCormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrum Downs shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.8% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year. This is according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of that date, 12,814 residents were employed. The unemployment rate in Carrum Downs was in line with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation was at 69.9%. Based on Census responses, 16.4% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

The area has a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 4.4%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of 0.6 workers for each resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.1% and labour force increased by 1.9%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Carrum Downs. These projections suggest that national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carrum Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and not taking into account localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on financial year ended June 2023, Carrum Downs had a median income among taxpayers of $53,792 with an average level of $59,706. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year ended June 2023 to March 2026, current estimates would be approximately $58,967 for median income and $65,450 for average income as of March 2026. According to the Australian Census data released on 2021, household incomes in Carrum Downs rank at the 45th percentile, family incomes at the 49th percentile, and personal incomes at the 52nd percentile. Distribution data shows that 40.1% of the population (9,443 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen regionally where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrum Downs, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

As per the latest Census evaluation in Carrum Downs, 79.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 20.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs stood at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented ones at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Carrum Downs was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carrum Downs' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (9.7%), secondary education (7.2%), and tertiary education (3.5%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum Downs has 105 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 1,566 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing just 214 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most inhabitants commute outward using private vehicles, which remain the dominant mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census, 16.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 223 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this data, depicting the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Carrum Downs faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 50% of the total population (~11,887 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, impacting 10.3 and 9.6% of residents respectively. However, 65.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 14.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,414 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs, surveyed in 2016, had a higher overseas-born population of 25.9%, compared to most local markets. In this area, 18.2% spoke languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 40.7%.

Judaism showed overrepresentation at 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. The top three ancestral groups were English (27.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Other (9.5%). Notably, Russian (0.6%) was higher than the regional average of 0.4%. Hungarian (0.4%) also showed overrepresentation compared to the region's 0.3%. Sri Lankan, however, was lower at 0.7% against the regional average of 0.8%.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.1%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.5%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 14.6% to 16.0%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 has declined from 16.8% to 15.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carrum Downs' age profile. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 28%, adding 810 residents to reach a total of 3,707. Conversely, the 0-4 age group is expected to decrease by 19 residents.