Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the Carrum Downs statistical area (Lv2) is around 23,631. This figure reflects an increase of 1,655 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,976. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 23,342 in Jun 2024 and an additional 553 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,163 persons per square kilometer. Since the 2021 census, Carrum Downs (SA2) has seen a growth rate of 7.5%, exceeding the SA4 region's 4.0% and marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Carrum Downs (SA2) is expected to grow by 4,395 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 17.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carrum Downs recorded approximately 103 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 517 homes. As of FY-26, 24 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 gained 2.2 new residents per year, indicating healthy demand supporting property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $374,000.

This financial year has seen $79.1 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs exhibits somewhat elevated construction levels, with 48.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. However, development activity has moderated recently. The current building activity shows 38.0% standalone homes and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This is a considerable change from the current housing mix of 79.0% houses.

Carrum Downs has approximately 1156 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 4,106 residents through to 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Carrum Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrum Downs shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 4.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year.

As of this date, 12,766 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was at 66.8%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Construction shows particularly high concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of workers per resident was 0.6 as at the Census, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5%, labour force increased by 2.8%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a national employment increase of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Carrum Downs had a median income among taxpayers of $53,792 and an average income of $59,706. These figures are below the national average, which stood at $61,483 in FY2023. In Greater Melbourne, the median and average incomes were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY2023, current estimates for Carrum Downs would be approximately $58,230 (median) and $64,632 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Carrum Downs ranked modestly, between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 40.1% of the population (9,476 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which is similar to the regional level where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrum Downs, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carrum Downs' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs was at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented ones at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Carrum Downs' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high at 27.7%, with 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Carrum Downs shows that there are 105 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of bus services. There are six individual routes serving these stops, which collectively facilitate 1,566 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 214 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 223 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrum Downs experiences significant health challenges with common health conditions being relatively prevalent across all age groups but notably higher among older cohorts. Approximately half of its total population (~11,928 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 65.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 65.0%. As of 2021, 14.2% of Carrum Downs' population is aged 65 and over (3,355 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs had a higher level of cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.9% of its population born overseas and 18.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Carrum Downs, with 40.7% of people identifying as such. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, comprising 0.3% of the population compared to the same proportion across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Other (9.5%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Russian was slightly overrepresented at 0.6%, Hungarian remained similar at 0.4%, and Sri Lankan was notably higher at 0.7%.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years. This is slightly below the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.3%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 14.6% to 15.7%, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 16.8% to 15.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carrum Downs's age profile. The 65-74 cohort is projected to grow by 46%, adding 891 residents to reach 2,829. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 51% of population growth. Conversely, the 5-14 and 25-34 age groups are expected to experience population declines.