Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the population of the suburb of Carrum Downs is estimated at around 23,638. This reflects an increase of 1,662 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,976. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 23,342 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 572 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,163 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's 7.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (4.1%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 4,388 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 17.3% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carrum Downs had approximately 103 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling about 517 homes. As of FY26, there have been 26 approvals recorded. On average, each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25 accommodated around 2.2 new residents per year, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value for new homes was $374,000.

This financial year has seen $79.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs had 48.0% higher construction levels per person over the five-year period, balancing buyer choice with property value support, though recent development activity has slowed somewhat. New building activity consisted of 38.0% standalone homes and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the current housing mix of 79.0% houses due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. The location had approximately 1156 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Carrum Downs' population to grow by 4,092 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite potential increased competition for buyers as the population expands.

Looking ahead, Carrum Downs is expected to grow by 4,092 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Carrum Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include the 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrum Downs shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate was 4.8% in December 2025, matching Greater Melbourne's rate. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.1%.

As of December 2025, 12,814 residents were employed and workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Home-based work accounted for 16.4% of jobs based on Census responses. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Construction employment is particularly high at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.4%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.6, indicating above-average local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.1% and labour force grew by 1.9%, leading to a slight unemployment rate decrease of 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth rates varying between industry sectors over five and ten-year periods. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2023, Carrum Downs had a median taxpayer income of $53,792 and an average income of $59,706. Both figures were below the national averages of $61,847 (median) and $75,164 (average). By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest median incomes could reach approximately $58,230 and average incomes around $64,632. The 2021 Census reported that household, family, and personal incomes in Carrum Downs ranked modestly, between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Income distribution data showed that 40.1% of residents (9,478 individuals) earned within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% fell into this bracket. Housing affordability was severe, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carrum Downs' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs was at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented ones at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Carrum Downs was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates at 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum Downs has 105 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that collectively facilitate 1,566 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents residing an average of 214 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 16.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 223 trips daily, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Carrum Downs faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. The area has approximately 11,932 people, with around 50% having private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, impacting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. About 65.6% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with higher chronic condition rates. The area has 3,569 people aged 65 and over, comprising 15.1% of the population. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligned with national rankings.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.9% of its population born overseas and 18.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrum Downs, making up 40.7% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English was the most common at 27.1%, Australian was second at 25.3%, and Other was notably lower at 9.5%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Russian was overrepresented at 0.6% compared to 0.4% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% versus 0.3%, and Sri Lankan at 0.7% against a regional average of 0.8%.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly below Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.8%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 14.6% to 15.9%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 has declined from 16.8% to 14.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carrum Downs's age profile. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 28%, adding 812 residents to reach a total of 3,744. Conversely, the 0-4 age group is expected to decrease by 11 residents.