Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Carrum Downs is estimated at around 23,638. This reflects an increase of 1,662 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,976. The change is inferred from the resident population of 23,342, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 572 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,163 persons per square kilometer. Carrum Downs's growth of 7.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.1%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 4,395 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 17.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Carrum Downs recorded around 103 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 517 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 24 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.2 new residents was gained for each dwelling built, indicating healthy demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $374,000.

This year, $79.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs records elevated construction rates, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values, though development activity has moderated recently. New building activity shows 38% standalone homes and 62% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This reflects a shift from the current housing mix of 79% houses due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. The location has approximately 1156 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market.

Looking ahead, Carrum Downs is expected to grow by 4099 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Carrum Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified fifteen projects that could affect the region. Notable ones are: 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 McCormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrum Downs shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year. The area had 12,766 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 71.0%. According to Census responses, 16.4% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Construction had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 4.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of workers per resident was 0.6 as at the Census, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5%, labour force increased by 2.8%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Carrum Downs had a median income among taxpayers of $53,792 and an average level of $59,706. These figures are below the national average, compared to Greater Melbourne levels of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Carrum Downs would be approximately $58,230 (median) and $64,632 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Carrum Downs rank modestly between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Distribution data shows 40.1% of the population (9,478 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrum Downs, with only 81.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Carrum Downs, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 29 August 2016, comprised 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's dwelling structure of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs was at 22.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (49.0%) or rented (28.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the time of the Census, was $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370. Nationally, Carrum Downs's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This difference presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 29.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum Downs has 105 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 1,566 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living within 214 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most residents commute outward, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 16.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 223 trips per day, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this data, illustrating the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Carrum Downs faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% (~11,932 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, impacting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 65.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 14.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,522 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs, found in a study to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, had 25.9% of its population born overseas and 18.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrum Downs, with 40.7% of people adhering to it. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, comprising 0.3% of the population compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English at 27.1%, Australian at 25.3%, and Other at 9.5%. These figures were substantially higher than regional averages for English (20.1%) and Australian (18.4%), but notably lower for Other (14.6%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Russian was overrepresented at 0.6% compared to 0.4% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% vs 0.3%, and Sri Lankan at 0.7% vs 0.8%.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.8%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 14.6% to 15.9%, while the population aged 25-34 has decreased from 16.8% to 14.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carrum Downs's age profile. The 65-74 cohort is projected to grow by 41%, adding 819 residents for a total of 2,829. Conversely, the 0-4 age group is expected to decrease by 10 residents.