Chelsea Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chelsea Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Chelsea Heights' population is approximately 5,456 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 63 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,393. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 5,456 in June 2024 and five additional validated addresses post-Census. This results in a population density ratio of 1,705 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.2% to recent population growth.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on current demographic trends, Chelsea Heights is expected to grow by approximately 638 persons by 2041, indicating a total increase of about 11.7% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Chelsea Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Chelsea Heights has seen approximately seven new homes approved annually. Between FY21 and FY25, 38 homes were approved, with two more approved in FY26 so far. The population decline in recent years suggests that the new supply has likely been meeting demand, providing good options for buyers.

New properties are constructed at an average cost of $412,000. In FY26, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating Chelsea Heights' primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chelsea Heights has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New building activity consists of 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suitable for buyers seeking space. With around 1130 people per dwelling approval, Chelsea Heights reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that Chelsea Heights will gain 638 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Chelsea Heights has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects likely to affect this area. Notable projects include The Dell by Stockland, Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, and Frankston Line Level Crossing Removal Program, with the following list providing details on those most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Chelsea Heights lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Chelsea Heights has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 7.3%.

As of June 2025, 2848 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 7.3%, which is 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's rate of 64.1%. The leading employment industries among Chelsea Heights' residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Manufacturing particularly shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the census working population versus resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Chelsea Heights' labour force increased by 1.4%, but employment declined by 1.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% and labour force grow by 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that Chelsea Heights' employment could increase by approximately 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolations of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Chelsea Heights is $53,213 and average income is $64,351. This compares to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,684 (median) and $72,176 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Chelsea Heights' household, family, and personal incomes fall around the 53rd percentile nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band includes 33.5% of individuals in Chelsea Heights (1,827 people), similar to metropolitan Melbourne at 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. Chelsea Heights' SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Chelsea Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chelsea Heights' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro had 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chelsea Heights was 40.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.3% and rented ones at 13.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,001, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent was $412, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Chelsea Heights' mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Chelsea Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.8% of all households, including 39.5% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Chelsea Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 24.7%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.2% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 24.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.3% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education. Chelsea Heights Primary School serves the area, enrolling 406 students as of the latest data. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with socio-educational conditions above average (ICSEA: 1050). Secondary options are available in surrounding areas due to limited local school capacity (7.4 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 15.7).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis found 41 active public transport stops in Chelsea Heights. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling seven different ones. Each week, these routes facilitate 1,486 passenger trips combined.

The accessibility to public transport is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 154 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 212 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chelsea Heights's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Chelsea Heights' health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population, which is around 2,831 people, compared to 58.2% in Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.6% and 7.8% of residents respectively. Approximately 68.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 1,084 people. This aligns broadly with the general population's health profile.

Chelsea Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chelsea Heights, surveyed in June 2021, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 26.1% of residents born overseas and 17.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 48.5%. Judaism, though small at 0.3%, was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (25.5%), Australian (25.2%), and Other (8.4%). Notable differences existed in Russian (0.9% vs regional 1.0%), Sri Lankan (1.2% vs 0.6%), and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.4%) representation.

Chelsea Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Chelsea Heights has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chelsea Heights has an over-representation of the 75-84 age group (8.2% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 year-olds (7.9%). Between 2021 and the present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.3% to 8.2%, while the 15-24 cohort has risen from 10.9% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 9.9% to 7.9%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Chelsea Heights' age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 182 people (41%), increasing from 444 to 627 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.