Mordialloc

Population growth drivers in Mordialloc are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Mordialloc's population is estimated at around 9,466 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 580 people (6.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,886 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,418 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 145 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,146 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mordialloc's 6.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.7%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas across the nation, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,206 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 10.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mordialloc recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Mordialloc shows an average of approximately 55 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years. This totals around 279 homes from FY-18 to FY-22. As of FY-26, there have been 48 recorded approvals. The average new resident growth per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is approximately 0.6.

Mordialloc's commercial approvals for FY-26 amount to $45.9 million. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mordialloc has experienced around 13.0% higher construction activity per person over the past five years. The dwelling mix in Mordialloc consists of approximately 28.0% detached houses and 72.0% attached dwellings. Current population density is about 217 people per dwelling approval, indicating potential for growth.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mordialloc is projected to gain around 1,026 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth beyond current forecasts.

Mordialloc has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to affect this region. Notable projects are Mordi Aquatic Centre, Mordialloc Activity Centre - Pride of the Bay Structure Plan and Village Masterplan, Aspire Mordialloc, and Moorabbin Airport Master Plan Redevelopment. Relevant details follow.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Mordialloc has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Mordialloc has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 4.6% in June 2025, matching Greater Melbourne's rate.

Workforce participation was 68.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. However, transport, postal & warehousing had lower representation at 2.8% compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work, as indicated by the Census working population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Mordialloc's labour force increased by 1.4%, while employment decreased by 0.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5% and unemployment increase by only 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mordialloc's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode-level ATO data for financial year 2022. Mordialloc's median income among taxpayers was $63,006, with an average of $84,051. This was among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $70,668 (median) and $94,272 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Mordialloc clustered around the 72nd percentile nationally. The earnings profile showed that 28.5% of residents earned between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (2,697 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort represented 32.8%. Notably, 33.0% of Mordialloc residents exceeded $3,000 weekly earnings. High housing costs consumed 16.1% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Mordialloc displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Mordialloc, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 39.8% houses and 60.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mordialloc was at 28.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (41.3%) or rented (30.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Mordialloc's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, as reported in the 2017-18 financial year, with rents exceeding the national figure of $375 for that period.

Mordialloc features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.2% of all households, including 33.5% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.5% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Mordialloc shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Mordialloc show a gap compared to its SA4 regional benchmarks. 37.0% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, against the regional average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas account for 12.9%, while certificates make up 17.4%.

Educational participation is high in Mordialloc, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education. The three schools in Mordialloc have a combined enrollment of 1,954 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1088). Education provision is balanced with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 20.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.6, indicating Mordialloc serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mordialloc has 46 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 different routes, collectively handling 4,765 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 191 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 680 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mordialloc's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Mordialloc residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, although higher than national averages for older and at-risk groups.

Approximately 60% (5,676 people) have private health cover, a rate exceptionally high compared to other areas. Mental health issues affect 8.2% of residents, while asthma impacts 7.7%. A total of 70.9% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 70.4%. The area has 16.6% (1,571 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 19.3%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

Mordialloc was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mordialloc's population, as per the 2016 Census, showed higher linguistic diversity with 19.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Overseas-born residents accounted for 29.2%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 49.0%.

Judaism was overrepresented at 0.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.1%. The top three ancestry groups were English (26.2%), Australian (20.6%), and Irish (9.9%). Notably, Russian (0.8% vs regional 1.0%), French (0.8% vs 0.6%), and Greek (3.7% vs 3.3%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Mordialloc compared to the broader region.

Mordialloc's median age exceeds the national pattern

Mordialloc has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Mordialloc has an over-representation of the 45-54 age cohort (15.4%) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (10.9%). Between 2021 and now, the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 10.9% to 13.5%, while the proportion of those aged 5 to 14 has decreased from 13.1% to 12.0%. By 2041, Mordialloc's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 361 people (71%), from 511 to 873. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are projected to account for 62% of total population growth, reflecting Mordialloc's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the populations aged 0-4 and 5-14 are expected to decline.