Mordialloc

Population growth drivers in Mordialloc are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Mordialloc is estimated at around 9,627 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 741 people (8.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,886 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,570, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 195 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,183 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mordialloc's 8.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.6%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,216 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 12.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Mordialloc when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Mordialloc has experienced around 64 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 322 homes. So far in the financial year 2025-26, 67 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed have been observed between FY-21 and FY-25.

New supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $622,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. This financial year has seen $38.4 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mordialloc records somewhat elevated construction activity, with 30.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period ending June 2025.

However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. New development consists of 29.0% detached houses and 71.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living that creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has approximately 177 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Looking ahead, Mordialloc is expected to grow by 1,159 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate ending June 2021. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Mordialloc has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Five projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Mordi Aquatic Centre, Mordialloc Activity Centre - Pride of the Bay Structure Plan and Village Masterplan, Moorabbin Airport Master Plan Redevelopment, Aspire Mordialloc.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Mordialloc has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Mordialloc has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate as of December 2025 was 4.4%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. There were 5,357 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 0.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 37.5% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing showed lower representation at 2.8% versus the regional average of 5.2%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on the count of Census working population to local population. During the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.3%, employment decreased by 0.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points in Mordialloc. In Greater Melbourne, employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Mordialloc. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mordialloc's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Mordialloc's median income among taxpayers is $63,006 and the average is $84,051. These figures are among the highest in Australia. Greater Melbourne's median income is $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Mordialloc would be approximately $68,204 (median) and $90,985 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Mordialloc cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.5% of residents (2,743 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 32.8%. Notably, 33.0% of Mordialloc residents exceed $3,000 weekly earnings, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mordialloc displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The latest Census evaluation of Mordialloc's dwelling structure showed 39.8% houses and 60.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mordialloc stood at 28.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.3% and rented ones at 30.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Mordialloc was $400, slightly above Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Mordialloc's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Mordialloc features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.2% of all households, including 33.5% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.5% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Mordialloc shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mordialloc's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks, with 37.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the SA4 region's 46.0%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 30.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (17.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (9.5%), secondary education (8.8%), and tertiary education (5.1%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mordialloc has 47 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 4,225 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 190 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most people commute outward using their cars, which remain the dominant mode of transport at 85%. Only 8% use the train for commuting. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents work from home, with 37.5% doing so. The service frequency averages 603 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 89 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Mordialloc is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Mordialloc shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 60% of Mordialloc's total population (5773 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 8.2% and 7.7% of residents respectively. About 70.9% of Mordialloc residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for those under 65 are better than average. The area has 17.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1694 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Mordialloc was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mordialloc's population, as per the 2016 Census, showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 19.3% speaking languages other than English at home and 29.2% born overseas. Christianity was the dominant religion in Mordialloc, comprising 49.0%. While Judaism made up only 0.7%, it was slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.2%), Australian (20.6%), and Irish (9.9%). Notably, Mordialloc had higher proportions of Russian (0.8% vs regional 0.4%), French (0.8% vs 0.5%), and Greek (3.7% vs 2.7%) ancestry compared to the region's averages.

Mordialloc's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Mordialloc has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Mordialloc at 14.9%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 10.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.9% to 13.9% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 4.7% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 13.1% to 11.7%, and the 45 to 54 group has decreased from 16.1% to 14.9%. Demographic projections suggest that by 2041, Mordialloc's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 320 people (55%), from 577 to 898. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 58% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.