Waterways

An assessment of population growth drivers in Waterways reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The estimated population of the suburb of Waterways is 2,457 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 35 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,422 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,453 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Waterways is expected to increase by 168 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 6.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Waterways is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Waterways has experienced approximately one dwelling receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated eight homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26.

The area's population decline has been accompanied by adequate development activity relative to its population change, which is positive for buyers compared to Greater Melbourne where development activity is significantly higher, at 88.0% above the regional average per person. Waterways' limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, although recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. This is also below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 1223 people per dwelling approval, Waterways reflects a highly mature market.

Future projections show Waterways adding approximately 168 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Waterways has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to affect this region. Notable initiatives include Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Dingley Village (former Kingswood Golf Course), Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, and SRL East - Works Package C - Tunnels - Cheltenham To Glen Waverley. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Waterways has been broadly consistent with national averages

Waterways has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 1,467 residents employed, with the unemployment rate at 0.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 73.9%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Census responses reveal that 33.7% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Wholesale trade shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average, while construction has lower representation at 7.7% compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.5%, while employment declined by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Waterways' employment mix indicates local employment could increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, the suburb of Waterways had a median income among taxpayers of $61,595 and an average income of $82,168. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 30, 2023, current estimates for Waterways would be approximately $66,677 (median) and $88,947 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, Waterways' household incomes rank at the 97th percentile ($3,013 weekly). Income analysis shows that 32.9% of the population (808 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from metropolitan patterns where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 32.8%. This indicates a substantial proportion of high earners in Waterways, with 50.7% earning above $3,000/week, suggesting strong economic capacity throughout the suburb. Housing accounts for 13.5% of income, and residents rank within the 96th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Waterways is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Waterways, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Waterways was 30.5%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (57.7%) or rented (11.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Waterways was $2,500, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Waterways was $623, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Waterways' median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863. Similarly, rents in Waterways were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Waterways features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 92.5% of all households, including 61.9% couples with children, 20.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 7.5%, composed of 6.5% lone person households and 0.6% group households. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Waterways demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 40.3% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and Victoria's rate of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 27.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational pathways account for 22.8% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 11.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.8% in secondary education, 10.4% in primary education, and 7.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Waterways has five active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by four different routes, collectively offering 694 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically living 272 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 2.1 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 33.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 99 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 138 weekly trips per individual stop.

Waterways's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Waterways based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups.

Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (1,455 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions were asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.3 and 4.3% of residents respectively. 79.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. As of the assessment date, 14.9% of residents were aged 65 and over (366 people). Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Waterways is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Waterways has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.7% of its population born overseas and 45.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Waterways, comprising 44.4% of people. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 11.9% of Waterways' population versus the regional average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (16.0%), English (15.7%), and Chinese (14.3%), with Chinese being significantly higher than the regional average of 6.5%. Notably, Sri Lankan (1.6% vs 0.8%), South Australian (1.4% vs 0.4%), and Vietnamese (4.5% vs 1.9%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Waterways compared to the region.

Waterways's median age exceeds the national pattern

Waterways's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Waterways has an over-representation of the 45-54 cohort at 18.4%, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 8.2%. This concentration in the 45-54 age group is well above the national average of 12.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 11.8% to 13.5%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 2.7% to 4.3%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 20.7% to 18.4%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 15.2% to 13.1%. Demographic modeling indicates that Waterways's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 65 to 74 cohort is projected to grow by 39%, adding 90 residents to reach 324. Residents aged 65 and older represent 79% of anticipated population growth, while declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 cohorts.