Waterways

An assessment of population growth drivers in Waterways reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Waterways is around 2,457 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 35 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,422 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 2,457 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,453 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and for areas not covered by this data, utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by 157 persons to reach approximately 2,614 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 6.2% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Waterways is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Waterways has experienced approximately one dwelling receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated eight homes.

As of July 2021, no approvals have been recorded for Financial Year 26. Waterways' population decline has been accompanied by adequate relative development activity, considered positive for buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Waterways has significantly less development activity, 88.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, though recent periods have seen increased development activity. The area's development activity is also under the national average, indicating its established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations.

Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, sustaining Waterways' suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With approximately 1222 people per dwelling approval, Waterways reflects a highly mature market. Future projections show Waterways adding 152 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate released in June 2021. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Waterways has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified no projects likely to affect this area. Key projects include Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Dingley Village (former Kingswood Golf Course), Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, and SRL East - Works Package C - Tunnels - Cheltenham To Glen Waverley.

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Waterways has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Waterways has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.3%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation in September 2025. There are 1,467 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A high 33.7% work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Dominant sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Wholesale trade shows notable concentration at 1.9 times the regional average, while construction has lower representation at 7.7%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Waterways' labour force increased by 0.2% while employment declined by 1.3%, raising unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's May-25 forecasts suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across sectors. Applying these projections to Waterways' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Waterways' median income among taxpayers is $61,595 and the average is $82,168. These figures are high compared to national averages and Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $66,677 (median) and $88,947 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, Waterways' household incomes rank at the 97th percentile ($3,013 weekly). Income analysis reveals that 32.9% of Waterways' population falls within the $4000+ income range, differing from metropolitan patterns where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 32.8%. The high proportion of earners above $3,000/week indicates strong economic capacity in Waterways. Housing accounts for 13.5% of income and residents rank within the 96th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Waterways is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Waterways, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Waterways was 30.5%, similar to Melbourne metro's level, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (57.7%) or rented (11.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Waterways was $2,500, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Waterways was $623, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Waterways' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Waterways features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 92.5% of all households, including 61.9% that are couples with children, 20.2% that are couples without children, and 10.0% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 7.5%, with lone person households at 6.5% and group households comprising 0.6%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Waterways demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and Victoria's rate of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 27.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational pathways account for 22.8% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 11.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.8% in secondary education, 10.4% in primary education, and 7.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Waterways has five operational public transport stops, all offering bus services. These stops are served by four unique routes, collectively facilitating 694 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 272 meters from their nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commutes are outward-bound, with cars remaining the primary mode of transport at 94%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 2.1, surpassing the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 33.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 99 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 138 weekly trips per individual stop.

Waterways's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Waterways based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 59% of the total population (1,455 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.3% and 4.3% of residents respectively. A total of 79.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Waterways has 15.3% of residents aged 65 and over (375 people). Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, with national rankings generally in line with the overall population.

Waterways is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Waterways has high cultural diversity, with 44.7% of its population born overseas and 45.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Waterways, comprising 44.4%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 11.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other at 16.0%, English at 15.7%, and Chinese at 14.3%, which is higher than the regional average of 6.5%. Notably, Sri Lankan (1.6% vs 0.8%), South African (1.4% vs 0.4%), and Vietnamese (4.5% vs 1.9%) groups are overrepresented in Waterways compared to regional averages.

Waterways's median age exceeds the national pattern

Waterways's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly above Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Waterways has a notably higher percentage of the 45-54 age group (18.5% locally vs. an average of 12.0%), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 55-64 age group has increased from 11.8% to 14.1%, and the 65-74 cohort has risen from 8.1% to 9.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 20.7% to 18.5%, and the 5-14 age group has fallen from 15.2% to 13.4%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Waterways's age profile by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 65-74 cohort (a projected increase of 37%, adding 90 residents to reach 331). Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 77% of the population growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 0-4 and 15-24 age groups.