Aspendale Gardens

Aspendale Gardens is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Aspendale Gardens is around 6,602, reflecting an increase of 175 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.7% change from the previous population figure of 6,427. The latest ABS data release (June 2024) and validation by AreaSearch indicates this rise is due to new addresses identified following the census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,037 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Aspendale Gardens' growth rate since the Census (2.7%) is within 2.9 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate (5.6%), suggesting competitive growth fundamentals. The primary driver for this population growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these projections, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Aspendale Gardens is expected to grow by 945 persons by the year 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Aspendale Gardens is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Aspendale Gardens recorded around 1 residential property granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years up to FY26. This totals an estimated 8 homes.

So far in FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded. Population decline in recent years suggests new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering good choice to buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aspendale Gardens has significantly less development activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This is also below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (84.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes despite densification trends. Population forecasts indicate Aspendale Gardens will gain 945 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Aspendale Gardens has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects expected to impact this region. Notable projects are Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment in Aspendale, The Strand Aspendale, and the Aspendale Beachside Structure Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Aspendale Gardens exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Aspendale Gardens has an educated workforce with strong manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 3750 residents were employed at a rate of 1.4% below Greater Melbourne's 4.8%, with participation at 69%.

Census responses showed 30% worked from home, considering Covid-19 impacts. Top industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with manufacturing being particularly specialized (1.4 times regional level). Professional & technical services were under-represented at 7.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population.

Between December 2024 and 2025, Aspendale Gardens' labour force decreased by 0.3%, employment declined by 0.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industries. Applying these projections to Aspendale Gardens' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch data for financial year 2023 shows Aspendale Gardens' median income is $51,971 and average income is $69,329. Greater Melbourne's figures are median $57,688 and average $75,164. Projecting with an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,259 (median) and $75,049 (average). The 2021 Census ranks Aspendale Gardens' household income at the 78th percentile ($2,210 weekly), personal income at the 51st percentile. Income analysis reveals 34.1% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (2,251 individuals). High earners comprise 32.5%, indicating strong economic capacity. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of income. Aspendale Gardens' SEIFA income ranking is in the 8th decile.

Aspendale Gardens is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Aspendale Gardens' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consists of 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aspendale Gardens stands at 41.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.2% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent is $496, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aspendale Gardens' mortgage repayments exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aspendale Gardens features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.1% of all households, including 48.7% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 16.9%, with lone person households at 16.5% and group households at 0.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aspendale Gardens shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 28.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (20.0%), are held by 32.1% of residents aged 15+. Educational participation is high, with 29.8% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (9.3%), secondary (9.3%), and tertiary (5.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aspendale Gardens has 17 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 851 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents on average being located 235 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward and primarily use cars for this purpose at a rate of 91%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Aspendale Gardens, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 30% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 121 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale Gardens's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Aspendale Gardens. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low among the general population, nearing the nation's average even among older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover was found to be high, with approximately 54% of the total population (~3,580 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions were asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively, while 72.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% figure for Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 21.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,406 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Aspendale Gardens was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale Gardens had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 32.4% of its population born overseas and 27.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Aspendale Gardens, making up 53.3%. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (21.9%), Australian (21.2%), and Other (11.4%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Sri Lankan was overrepresented at 1.3% (vs regional 0.8%), Polish at 1.2% (vs 0.8%), and Greek at 4.2% (vs 2.7%).

Aspendale Gardens hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Aspendale Gardens is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 years are particularly prominent, making up 16.2% of the population, compared to the national figure of 11.2%. This is higher than the proportion in Greater Melbourne. Meanwhile, the 25-34 year-olds make up 8.1%, which is smaller than the proportion in Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 55-64 age group has grown from 14.6% to 16.2%, while the 75-84 cohort has increased from 6.0% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 year-olds have declined from 16.3% to 13.8%, and the 5-14 year-olds have dropped from 13.2% to 11.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Aspendale Gardens' age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow exceptionally, increasing by 315 people (129%) from 244 to 560. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 82% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 0-4 and 15-24 year-olds are expected to experience population declines.