Aspendale Gardens

Aspendale Gardens is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Aspendale Gardens is estimated at 6,602 as of Feb 2026. This figure represents an increase of 175 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,427. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and one additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,037 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Aspendale Gardens's population growth rate of 2.7% since the census is within 2.9 percentage points of its SA3 area (5.6%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 956 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 15.0%.

The level of residential development activity in Aspendale Gardens is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Aspendale Gardens has recorded approximately one residential property granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated eight homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26.

Population decline in recent years suggests new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aspendale Gardens has significantly less development activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This activity is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (84.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends.

Population forecasts indicate Aspendale Gardens will gain 993 residents by 2041, potentially leading to buyer competition and price increases if current development rates do not match population growth.

Aspendale Gardens has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects expected to influence this region. Notable initiatives include Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment in Aspendale, The Strand Aspendale, and the Aspendale Beachside Structure Plan. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Aspendale Gardens exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Aspendale Gardens has an educated workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominently represented. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate was 3.4%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to the regional level at 71.0%.

A significant portion, 30.0%, of residents work from home. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing employment is high, with a share 1.4 times the regional average. However, professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 7.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Aspendale Gardens' labour force increased by 0.6%, while employment declined by 0.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and a smaller unemployment increase of 0.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aspendale Gardens' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Aspendale Gardens has median income of $51,971 and average income of $69,329. Greater Melbourne's figures are median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. With Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $56,259 (median) and $75,049 (average). The 2021 Census reveals household income rank at the 78th percentile ($2,210 weekly), while personal income is at the 51st percentile. Income analysis indicates that 34.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,251 individuals). High earners comprise 32.5%, suggesting strong economic capacity in Aspendale Gardens. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Aspendale Gardens is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Aspendale Gardens' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aspendale Gardens stood at 41.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.2% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $496, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aspendale Gardens' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aspendale Gardens features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.1% of all households, consisting of 48.7% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.9%, with lone person households at 16.5% and group households comprising 0.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aspendale Gardens shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 28.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 32.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (20.0%). Educational participation is high at 29.8%, comprising primary education (9.3%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (5.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aspendale Gardens has 17 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 851 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 235 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 91% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

Notably, 30% of residents work from home (as per the 2021 Census; this figure may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions). The service frequency averages 121 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale Gardens's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Aspendale Gardens. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low among the general population, nearer the nation's average across older, at-risk cohorts.

The rate of private health cover was found to be high at approximately 54% of the total population (~3,580 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions were asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively, while 72.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.8%, with 1,373 people, compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Aspendale Gardens was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale Gardens had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 32.4% of its population born overseas and 27.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Aspendale Gardens, accounting for 53.3% of its population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, comprising 0.8% compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (21.9%), Australian (21.2%), and Other (11.4%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Sri Lankan at 1.3% in Aspendale Gardens versus 0.8% regionally, Polish at 1.2% versus 0.8%, and Greek at 4.2% versus 2.7%.

Aspendale Gardens hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Aspendale Gardens has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group comprises 16.4% of Aspendale Gardens' population, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.0%. This concentration of the 55-64 age group is notably higher than the national average of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the percentage of Aspendale Gardens' population in the 55-64 age bracket has increased from 14.6% to 16.4%, and the 75-84 cohort has risen from 6.0% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 16.3% to 13.7%, and the 5-14 age group has fallen from 13.2% to 11.2%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Aspendale Gardens' age profile by 2041. Notably, the 85+ population is expected to grow by 129% (an increase of 307 people), reaching a total of 545 from its current level of 237. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 80% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 15-24 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.