Keysborough - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keysborough - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keysborough - North's population was around 15,272 as of Nov 2025. This reflected an increase of 176 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,096. The change was inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 15,101 in June 2024 and 63 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,310 persons per square kilometer, above national averages according to AreaSearch's assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.3% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project above median population growth with an expected increase of 2,200 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 13.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keysborough - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keysborough - North has seen approximately 24 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25123 homes were approved, with 9 more in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, new supply likely met demand, offering good buyer choice.

Average dwelling value was $429,000, higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. In FY-26, $2.3 million in commercial approvals were granted, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - North had 57.0% less construction per person. This typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, though recent years saw building activity acceleration. The area's established nature is reflected by being below the national average, potentially due to planning limitations. New development consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the current 90.0% houses.

This indicates decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles needing diverse housing options. With around 674 people per dwelling approval, Keysborough - North is a highly mature market. By 2041, population is forecast to increase by 2,023 residents. At current development rates, supply may struggle to match growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Keysborough - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of eight projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Keys Estate in Keysborough, Keysborough Townhouses, Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, and Keysborough Community Hub. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Keysborough - North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keysborough - North has a skilled labour force with prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4%.

As of September 2025, 7,244 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher at 5.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing employs 2.6 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services employ only 4.9%, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.4% while labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3%. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, outpacing the national average of 0.14%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keysborough - North's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 5.4% over five years and 12.0% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Keysborough - North SA2 was $50,877 and the average was $60,955 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $54,892 and average income being $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,064 (median) and $68,367 (average). Census data shows individual incomes at the 11th percentile ($599 weekly), while household income is at the 37th percentile. The income distribution in Keysborough - North SA2 is dominated by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket with 34.7% of residents (5,299 people). After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Keysborough - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keysborough - North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - North stood at 44.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.5% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Keysborough - North was $381, higher than Melbourne metro's figure of $350. Nationally, Keysborough - North's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Keysborough - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (17.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.4%, with 8.7% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keysborough - North has 75 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that together facilitate 3,842 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 199 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 548 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 51 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Keysborough - North is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Keysborough North shows better-than-average health outcomes for both young and elderly residents. Common health conditions have low prevalence: asthma affects 6.6%, diabetes impacts 6.6%, and 72.6% report no medical ailments. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where 75.1% are clear of medical issues.

Private health cover is held by approximately 50% (~7,636 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.6% (3,457 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring general population health profiles.

Keysborough - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-North is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 61.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 55.8% born overseas as of the latest available data from 2016. Christianity is the main religion in Keysborough-North, comprising 39.7% of the population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented, making up 22.8% of the population compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 15.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups in Keysborough-North are Other (27.3%), Chinese (12.6%), and English (11.2%). There are also notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Vietnamese is overrepresented at 11.2% compared to the regional average of 8.5%, Sri Lankan at 1.9% versus 1.8%, and Serbian at 0.9% compared to 1.1%.

Keysborough - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Keysborough - North has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years, and marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing it with the Greater Melbourne average, the 75-84 age group is notably over-represented at 8.9% locally, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.9%. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.7% to 8.9% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 13.9% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Keysborough - North's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 670 people (49%), growing from 1,365 to 2,036 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, both the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.