Keysborough - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keysborough - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Keysborough - North's population is around 15,095 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 1 person (0.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,096 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,095 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 63 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,283 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 83.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above-median population growth of Australian statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,200 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 14.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keysborough - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keysborough - North has seen around 24 new homes approved each year, totalling 123 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $429,000—slightly above the regional average—suggesting a focus on quality developments. Additionally, $2.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - North has significantly less development activity (57.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though construction activity has intensified recently. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 57.0% standalone homes and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 90.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 674 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Population forecasts indicate Keysborough - North will gain 2,200 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Keysborough - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 8 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Keys Estate Keysborough, Keysborough Townhouses, Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, and Keysborough Community Hub, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Keysborough - North recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Keysborough - North possesses a skilled workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 5.9%, and 3.3% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,293 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (60.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 2.6 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.9% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of the Census working population relative to the local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.3% while the labour force increased by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Keysborough - North. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keysborough - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Keysborough - North SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,243 with the average level standing at $62,660. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,636 (median) and $67,829 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals individual incomes lag at the 11th percentile ($599 weekly), while household income performs better at the 37th percentile. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 34.7% of locals (5,237 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. After housing, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Keysborough - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Keysborough - North, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Keysborough - North was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 44.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.5%) or rented (21.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Keysborough - North's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 79.6% of all households, comprising 38.9% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Keysborough - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.2%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (17.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 75 active transport stops operating within Keysborough - North, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 15 individual routes, collectively providing 2,284 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 14.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 326 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keysborough - North's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keysborough - North, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts see low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,607 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.6% and 6.6% of residents, respectively, while 72.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,506 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Keysborough - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 61.4% of the population speaking a language other than English at home and 55.8% born overseas. The main religion in Keysborough - North is Christianity, making up 39.7% of the population. However, there is a significant overrepresentation of Buddhism, which comprises 22.8% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Keysborough - North are Other, comprising 27.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Chinese, comprising 12.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 6.5%, and English, comprising 11.2% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Vietnamese is notably overrepresented at 11.2% of Keysborough - North (vs 1.9% regionally), Sri Lankan at 1.9% (vs 0.8%) and Serbian at 0.9% (vs 0.4%).

Keysborough - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Keysborough - North is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (9.3% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (12.4%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.7% to 9.3% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.9% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Keysborough - North's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 630 people (45%) from 1,405 to 2,036. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 63% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.