Keysborough - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keysborough - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keysborough - North's population was around 15,067 as of May 2026, reflecting a decrease since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 15,096 people. This change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data in June 2025 and additional validated addresses since the Census date. The population density was approximately 2,279 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 86.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Future population trends project above median growth by 2041, with an expected increase of 2,240 persons and a total gain of 14.9% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keysborough - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keysborough - North has seen approximately 24 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25123 homes were approved, with 13 more in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, new supply likely met demand, offering buyers good choice.

Average dwelling value was $429,000, higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. Commercial approvals this year totalled $2.3 million, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - North had 57.0% less construction per person. This typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes but building activity has increased recently. This area is below the national average in development, suggesting established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the current 90.0% houses, indicating decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles.

With around 674 people per dwelling approval, Keysborough - North reflects a mature market. By 2041, population is forecast to grow by 2,240 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Keysborough - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects expected to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Keys Estate Keysborough, Keysborough Townhouses, The Key Industrial Estate, Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3. Below is a list of projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Keysborough - North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keysborough - North has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.9% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.3%.

As of that date, 7,293 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Keysborough - North was significantly lower at 60.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 14.8% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Manufacturing is particularly specialized with an employment share of 2.6 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services employ only 4.9% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.3%, while labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and a smaller increase in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keysborough - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.0% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Keysborough - North SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $53,243 and an average income of $62,660 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,365 (median) and $68,688 (average). Census data shows individual incomes at the 11th percentile ($599 weekly), while household income is at the 37th percentile. The income distribution in this area is dominated by the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, with 34.7% of residents (5,228 people). This aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Keysborough - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Keysborough - North, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - North was at 44.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (34.5%) or rented (21.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keysborough - North's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Keysborough - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 17.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.4% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keysborough - North has 75 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that together facilitate 2,284 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the primarily residential nature of the area. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 91% of residents. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 326 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keysborough - North's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keysborough - North. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover was found to be relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,593 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.6 and 6.6% of residents respectively. 72.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,438 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Keysborough - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-North is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 61.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home as of 2016 Census data. Additionally, 55.8% of Keysborough-North's residents were born overseas. Christianity was found to be the main religion in Keysborough-North, comprising 39.7% of people.

However, Buddhism had a substantial overrepresentation, making up 22.8% of the population compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Other at 27.3%, Chinese at 12.6%, and English at 11.2%. Notably, Vietnamese (11.2%), Sri Lankan (1.9%), and Serbian (0.9%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively.

Keysborough - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Keysborough - North has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Keysborough - North (9.0% locally), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (13.0%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.7% to 9.0% of the population. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort has declined from 13.9% to 13.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Keysborough - North's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 616 people (45%), from 1,360 to 1,977. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 63% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.