Keysborough - North
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keysborough - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

AreaSearch's analysis indicates Keysborough - North's population was around 15,274 as of Aug 2025. This shows an increase of 178 people (1.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,096. The change is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 15,100 in June 2024 and an additional 64 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,310 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future trends, an above median population growth is projected with the area expected to grow by 2,200 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, recording a gain of 13.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keysborough - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keysborough - North has received approximately 8 dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data from the ABS shows 43 homes approved over five financial years, from FY20 to FY25, with 3 approvals recorded in FY26 so far. The population has been declining recently, suggesting that new supply is meeting demand and providing good options for buyers. The average construction cost of new homes is $544,000.

In the current financial year, $2.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - North has significantly lower building activity, at 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, although there has been a recent increase in construction activity. This is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, offering choices across price ranges. This shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 90.0% houses, indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 674 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Looking ahead to 2041, Keysborough - North is expected to grow by 2,021 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Keysborough - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could impact the region. Notable projects include Keys Estate Keysborough, Keysborough Townhouses, Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, and Keysborough Community Hub. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Keysborough - North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keysborough - North has an experienced labour force with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.6% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth at 2.8%.

As of June 2025, 7,392 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation lags behind Greater Melbourne at 54.9%. Major industries employing local residents include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows particularly high specialization with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level, while professional & technical services employ only 4.9% of workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute outside the area for work based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keysborough - North's employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 5.4% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keysborough - North's median income among taxpayers was $50,877 in financial year 2022, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $60,955 during this period. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761 in the same year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be approximately $56,021 (median) and $67,118 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, individual incomes in Keysborough - North lag at the 12th percentile ($599 weekly), while household income performs better at the 37th percentile. The largest segment comprises 34.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (5,300 residents). After housing expenses, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Keysborough - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Keysborough - North, as per the latest Census data, 89.7% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 10.3% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Melbourne's metropolitan area where 72.1% of dwellings are houses and 28.0% are other types. Home ownership in Keysborough - North stood at 44.0%, with mortgaged properties at 34.5% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne's average of $1,800. Weekly rent was recorded at $381 compared to Melbourne's $350. Nationally, Keysborough - North's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Keysborough - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is substantially lower than the Greater Melbourne average, with 20.2% compared to 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, primarily certificates (17.1%) and advanced diplomas (9.4%). Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary (8.7%), secondary (7.7%), and tertiary (4.8%) education. Keysborough - North has four schools with a combined enrollment of 862 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1024). Educational provision is split between two primary and two secondary institutions. However, local school capacity is limited, with only 5.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.5, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows that as of July 2023 there are 75 active transport stops operating within Keysborough - North. These stops offer a mix of bus services. There are 15 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 3842 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 548 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Keysborough - North is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Keysborough North shows better-than-average health outcomes for both young and elderly residents, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Around half (50%) of its total population (~7637 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 47.5% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 6.6% and 6.6% of residents respectively.

About three-quarters (72.6%) report being free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 75.1%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.6% (~3458 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are in line with the general population's health profile, both being above average.

Keysborough - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-North, surveyed in 20XX, has high cultural diversity with 61.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 55.8% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 39.7%. Buddhism is notably higher at 22.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.2%.

Top ancestry groups are Other (27.3%), Chinese (12.6%), and English (11.2%). Vietnamese (11.2%) and Sri Lankan (1.9%) are overrepresented, while Serbian is slightly underrepresented at 0.9%.

Keysborough - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Keysborough - North has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne's average, the 75-84 age group is notably over-represented in Keysborough - North at 8.9%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 12.9%. Between 2021 and present day, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has increased from 6.7% to 8.9%, while the percentage of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 13.9% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Keysborough - North's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 670 people (49%), growing from 1,365 to 2,036 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.