Keysborough - North
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keysborough - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keysborough - North's population is 15,274 as of Aug 2025. This shows an increase of 178 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,096. The change is inferred from ABS estimates of 15,100 in Jun 2024 and 64 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,310 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.3% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median growth, with the area expected to reach 17,474 persons by 2041, a gain of 13.2% over 17 years based on latest population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keysborough - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keysborough - North has experienced approximately 24 dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25123 homes have been approved, with a further 6 approved in FY-26. Despite a decline in population during this period, new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering good choice for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $544,000. In the current financial year, there have been $2.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - North has significantly less development activity, 57.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although building activity has increased recently. However, this activity remains below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 90.0% houses.

This change may indicate decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. With approximately 674 people per dwelling approval, Keysborough - North reflects a highly mature market. Future projections suggest that by 2041, the area will add around 2,021 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Keysborough - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may impact this region. Notable ones are Keys Estate Keysborough, Keysborough Townhouses, Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, and Keysborough Community Hub. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Keysborough - North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keysborough - North has a skilled workforce with strong manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8%.

As of June 2025, 7,392 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.9% versus Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing employs 2.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 4.9%, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keysborough - North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.4% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keysborough North has a median taxpayer income of $50,877 and an average of $60,955, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $57,064 (median) and $68,367 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows individual incomes at the 12th percentile ($599 weekly), while household income is at the 37th percentile. Income distribution reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 34.7% of residents (5,300 people), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Keysborough - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keysborough - North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - North was 44.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.5% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Keysborough - North was $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Keysborough - North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 79.6% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Keysborough - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (17.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.4%, with 8.7% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Keysborough - North's four schools have a combined enrollment of 862 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1024) with balanced educational opportunities. The area has two primary and two secondary institutions, but limited local school capacity (5.6 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 15.5) means many families travel elsewhere for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keysborough - North has 75 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that collectively facilitate 3,842 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 199 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 548 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Keysborough - North is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Keysborough North shows better-than-average health outcomes for both younger and older residents. Common health conditions have low prevalence: asthma affects 6.6%, diabetes impacts 6.6%, and 72.6% report no medical ailments. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where 75.1% are clear of ailments.

Private health cover is held by approximately 50% (~7,637 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors (22.6%, or 3,458 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.4%. Seniors' health outcomes are above average, similar to the general population's profile.

Keysborough - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough - North has a high level of cultural diversity, with 61.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 55.8% born overseas by the year 2021. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keysborough - North, accounting for 39.7% of people. However, Buddhism is significantly higher at 22.8%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 15.2%.

The top three ancestry groups based on parental country of birth are Other (27.3%), Chinese (12.6%), and English (11.2%). Notably, Vietnamese (11.2%) and Sri Lankan (1.9%) populations are overrepresented in Keysborough - North compared to regional averages of 8.5% and 1.8%, respectively, while Serbian is slightly underrepresented at 0.9%.

Keysborough - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Keysborough - North has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Keysborough - North at 8.9%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.7% to 8.9% of the population, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 13.9% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Keysborough - North's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 670 people (49%), from 1,365 to 2,036. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 66% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.