Keysborough - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keysborough - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keysborough - North's population was approximately 15,095 as of February 2026. This reflected a decrease of 1 person since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,096 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,095 in June 2024 and an additional 63 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 2,283 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilized the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Keysborough - North is expected to experience above median population growth, increasing by approximately 2,200 persons to 2041. This would represent a gain of 14.6% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keysborough - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keysborough - North has seen approximately 24 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 123 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 10 approvals have been recorded. Despite a decline in population during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which is positive for buyers. The average value of new homes being built is $429,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

In terms of commercial development, $2.3 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting minimal activity compared to Greater Melbourne. Keysborough - North has significantly less development activity overall, with 57.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although construction activity has recently intensified. However, this activity remains below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 57.0% standalone homes and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across different price brackets. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (90.0%).

The location has approximately 674 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Population forecasts suggest Keysborough - North will gain around 2,200 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Keysborough - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Keys Estate Keysborough, Keysborough Townhouses, Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, and Keysborough Community Hub. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Keysborough - North recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Keysborough - North has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.6% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.4%.

There were 7,244 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was lower at 60.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 14.8% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment were manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Manufacturing had a particularly high share of employment at 2.6 times the regional level, while professional & technical services employed only 4.9% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents appeared to commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.4% and labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keysborough - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Keysborough - North SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,243 and an average income of $62,660. These figures are below the national averages of $75,164 across Greater Melbourne and $81,927 nationally. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $57,636 and average income $67,829. Census data shows individual incomes lag at the 11th percentile ($599 weekly), while household incomes perform better at the 37th percentile. Income distribution data indicates that 34.7% of locals (5,237 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing expenses, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Keysborough - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keysborough - North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - North stood at 44.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.5% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Keysborough - North was $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keysborough - North's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households at 2.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Keysborough - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 26.5% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 17.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keysborough - North has 75 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 15 different routes that collectively provide 2,284 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 199 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility in the area. As a predominantly residential region, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 91% of residents. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 326 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keysborough - North's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keysborough - North. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low for both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover was relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,607 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.6 and 6.6% of residents respectively. 72.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,506 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Keysborough - North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-North is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 61.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home as of the latest census on 27 August 2016. Additionally, 55.8% of Keysborough-North's residents were born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keysborough-North, comprising 39.7% of the population.

However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented at 22.8%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Keysborough-North are 'Other', at 27.3%, Chinese at 12.6%, and English at 11.2%. These figures differ significantly from regional averages: 'Other' is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, while Chinese and English are notably lower at 6.5% and 20.1% respectively. Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Vietnamese at 11.2%, Sri Lankan at 1.9%, and Serbian at 0.9%.

Keysborough - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Keysborough - North has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Keysborough - North at 9.3%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.7% to 9.3% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.9% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Keysborough - North's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 630 people (45%), growing from 1,405 to 2,036. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 63% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.