Noble Park - West

Population growth drivers in Noble Park - West are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Noble Park - West's population is approximately 20,434 as of November 2025. Between the 2021 Census and June 2024, the population increased by 843 people (4.3%), reaching an estimated resident population of 20,330. This growth was driven primarily by overseas migration, contributing about 88.8% of overall population gains during this period. AreaSearch's analysis uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation for areas not covered by the former data. Based on these projections, Noble Park - West is expected to increase its population by approximately 12.0% to around 22,998 persons by 2041.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to increase by 2,564 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting recording a gain of 12.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Noble Park - West when compared nationally

Noble Park - West has recorded approximately 81 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 409 homes were approved, with an additional 15 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 0.1 new residents have arrived per year for each new home over these five years, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $402,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY26 to date, approximately $12.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating balanced commercial development activity in Noble Park - West relative to Greater Melbourne. The construction activity per person in Noble Park - West is comparable to that of surrounding areas, preserving market equilibrium. The new development in Noble Park - West consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the existing housing pattern of 72.0% houses. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, potentially responding to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences.

With around 248 people per dwelling approval, Noble Park - West shows characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Noble Park - West is projected to add approximately 2,460 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Noble Park - West has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones include Douglas Apartments, Noble Park Revitalisation, Noble Park Station and Level Crossing Removal, and Chapel Park Keysborough. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Noble Park - West are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Noble Park - West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 7.1% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%. In June 2025, there were 9,964 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 55.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Manufacturing has a significant presence with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. Employment levels increased by 3.7% and labour force increased by 4.4% during the year to June 2025, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data to Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Noble Park - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.5% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Noble Park - West SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $44,844. The average income stood at $49,704 during this period. These figures compare to those for Greater Melbourne, which were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,297 (median) and $55,748 (average). Census data reveals household income ranks at the 28th percentile ($1,399 weekly), while personal income sits at the 10th percentile. Distribution data shows that 33.2% of the community falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band (6,784 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Noble Park - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Noble Park-West's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.8% houses and 28.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Melbourne metro had 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noble Park-West was 32.0%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings were 30.7% and rented ones 37.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, below Melbourne metro's $1,800 average. Median weekly rent in Noble Park-West was $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, Noble Park-West's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,700 than the Australian average of $1,863. Rents were also less at $346 compared to the national figure of $375.

Noble Park - West features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.2 percent of all households, including 33.6 percent couples with children, 20.7 percent couples without children, and 15.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.8 percent, with lone person households at 23.1 percent and group households comprising 4.8 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Noble Park - West faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 23.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational pathways account for 24.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 14.9%. Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 7.9% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Noble Park - West has 53 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. They are served by 15 different routes which together facilitate 3262 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 192 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 466 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Noble Park - West is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Noble Park - West shows better-than-average health outcomes with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, older cohorts at risk have higher condition rates.

Private health cover is low, at approximately 46% (around 9,420 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.2% and 5.7% of residents respectively. A total of 75.3% claim to have no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 75.1%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.8%, with approximately 3,432 people in this age group. Older cohorts require more health attention than the broader population.

Noble Park - West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Noble Park-West has a culturally diverse population, with 69.7% speaking a language other than English at home and 64.4% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Noble Park-West, comprising 33.8% of its population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented at 24.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 15.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (34.3%), Vietnamese (13.9%), and English (10.0%). Sri Lankan, Serbian, and Indian ethnicities show notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages.

Noble Park - West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Noble Park - West's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37. It is modestly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Noble Park - West has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (18.8%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (13.5%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 11.3% to 10.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Noble Park - West's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 56%, adding 672 residents to reach a total of 1,876. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 58% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to experience population declines.