Noble Park - West
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Noble Park - West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Noble Park - West's population was around 20,402 as of August 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 811 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,591. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 20,330 in June 2024 and 137 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,259 persons per square kilometer, placing Noble Park - West in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 4.1% growth since census is within 2.6 percentage points of its SA3 area (6.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 88.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the area, expecting a total increase of 2,564 persons by 2041 based on latest population numbers, recording a gain of 12.2% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Noble Park - West when compared nationally

Noble Park - West has recorded approximately 81 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25409 homes were approved, with a further 12 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of new residents per year arriving per new home over these five years is around 0.1.

This suggests that supply meets or exceeds demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. The average value of new dwellings developed is $402,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $12.9 million in commercial development approvals recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity comparable to Greater Melbourne. Noble Park - West shows similar construction activity per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. The new development consists of 30% detached houses and 70% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the existing housing pattern of 72% houses.

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 248 people per dwelling approval, Noble Park - West is characterized as a low-density area. Future projections indicate that Noble Park - West will add approximately 2,492 residents by the year 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Noble Park - West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones are Douglas Apartments, Noble Park Revitalisation, Noble Park Station Level Crossing Removal, and The Woodlands Keysborough. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Noble Park - West has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Noble Park - West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.1% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year.

There were 9,964 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 2.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 55.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a high specialization in manufacturing with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services had limited presence at 5.3% compared to the regional level of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% and labour force by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest a national expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Noble Park - West's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.5% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Noble Park - West's median income among taxpayers was $44,844 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $49,704 during the same period. For Greater Melbourne, these figures were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By March 2025, estimates based on a 10.11% increase from financial year 2022 suggest median income will be approximately $49,378 and average income around $54,729. According to census data, household income ranks at the 29th percentile ($1,399 weekly), with personal income at the 10th percentile. Distribution data shows that 33.2% of individuals in Noble Park - West earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (6,773 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Noble Park - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Noble Park - West, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 71.8% houses and 28.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noble Park - West was 32.0%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (30.7%) or rented (37.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent figure in Noble Park - West was $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, Noble Park - West's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Noble Park - West features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.2% of all households, including 33.6% couples with children, 20.7% couples without children, and 15.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 23.1% and group households comprising 4.8%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Noble Park - West faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 23.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational pathways make up 24.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 14.9%. Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 7.9% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 6.1% in tertiary education.

Noble Park - West has four schools with a combined enrollment of 2,033 students. The area's ICSEA score is 952, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. It includes three primary schools and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (10.0) are below the regional average (15.5), suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Noble Park - West has 53 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 15 different routes that collectively facilitate 3,262 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 192 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 466 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Noble Park - West's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows strong health metrics in Noble Park - West with low prevalence of common health conditions among the general population, but higher than national averages for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 46% (9,405 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.2% and 5.7% of residents respectively. 75.3% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 75.1%. The area has 16.8% (3,427 people) aged 65 and over, requiring additional attention.

Noble Park - West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Noble Park-West has a highly diverse population, with 69.7% speaking languages other than English at home and 64.4% born overseas as of the latest data. Christianity is the predominant religion in Noble Park-West, comprising 33.8% of its population. However, Buddhism is notably more prevalent here, accounting for 24.3%, compared to Melbourne's average of 15.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (34.3%), Vietnamese (13.9%), and English (10.0%). Some ethnicities show significant differences: Sri Lankan is at 1.5% versus Melbourne's 1.8%, Serbian is at 0.7% compared to 1.1%, while Indian stands at 5.6% against Melbourne's 6.2%.

Noble Park - West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Noble Park - West's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years. This is modestly under the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Noble Park - West has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (18.8%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (13.5%). Between the censuses of 2021 and 2026, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 11.3% to 10.8%. Demographic modeling indicates that Noble Park - West's age profile will significantly evolve by the year 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to have the strongest growth, increasing by 56% and adding 674 residents to reach a total of 1,876. Senior residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 58% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the cohorts aged 0-4 and 5-14 are projected to experience population declines.