Keysborough - South

Keysborough - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Keysborough - South's population is approximately 16,918 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 1,825 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,093. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: 16,874 in June 2024 and an additional 253 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 714 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keysborough - South's growth rate of 12.1% since the Census exceeded both its SA3 area (6.8%) and national average, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 58.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, based on 2022 data. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, Keysborough - South is forecasted to experience significant population increase, with an expected growth of 5,848 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 34.3% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keysborough - South when compared nationally

Keysborough - South has recorded approximately 130 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling 651 homes. As of FY26, four approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.9 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. New homes are constructed at an average value of $287,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In FY26, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - South records 136.0% more new home approvals per person. Development activity has moderated recently, with new building comprising 27.0% standalone homes and 73.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift towards higher-density living caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a considerable change from the current housing mix of 89.0% houses. The estimated population density is 1676 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, Keysborough - South is projected to grow by 5,804 residents, with present construction rates balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Looking ahead, Keysborough - South is expected to grow by 5,804 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Keysborough - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that may affect the region. Notable initiatives include Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, Keysborough Gardens Primary School Upgrade and Modernisation, Keysborough South Residential Precinct, and Keysborough Community Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Keysborough - South places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Keysborough - South has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% in September 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%. As of September 2025, 10,061 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 71.7%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows notable concentration at 1.9 times the regional average, while education & training has lower representation at 6.6% versus the regional average of 9.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, labour force by 5.2%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% with a similar unemployment rise. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Keysborough - South's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Keysborough - South SA2 has an income level below the national average, according to AreaSearch data based on the latest ATO figures for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in this area is $50,828, with an average income of $60,884. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes are approximately $57,009 (median) and $68,287 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 90th percentile ($2,493 weekly). Income distribution shows that 37.3% of residents (6,310 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, which is similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Keysborough - South demonstrates affluence with 38.0% earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 88th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Keysborough - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Keysborough - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consists of 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - South stands at 20.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.5% and rented dwellings at 16.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $2,478, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent in Keysborough - South is $520, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, Keysborough - South's mortgage repayments are significantly higher at $2,478 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375 at $520.

Keysborough - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 90.2% of all households, including 59.7% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Keysborough - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Keysborough South has higher educational attainment than broader areas. Among residents aged 15+, 37.8% have university qualifications, compared to 26.7% in the SA3 area and 29.8% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational pathways account for 22.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 11.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.6% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 44 active transport stops operating within Keysborough - South. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 10 individual routes. They collectively provide 2,472 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 254 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 353 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keysborough - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Keysborough - South with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (around 8,459 people), compared to 47.5% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 6.0 and 4.2% of residents respectively, while 82.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the 75.1% in Greater Melbourne.

The area has 9.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,553 people), lower than the 17.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention despite being stronger than those of the broader population.

Keysborough - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-South, as of the latest data, has a population that is 55.2% born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keysborough-South, accounting for 35.3%. Buddhism, however, is more prevalent here compared to Greater Melbourne, with 18.2% of Keysborough-South's population identifying as Buddhist.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.5%), Chinese (19.4%, significantly higher than the regional average of 10.9%), and Australian (8.7%). Notable differences exist in the representation of Sri Lankan (3.2% vs 1.8%), Vietnamese (8.4% vs 8.5%), and Serbian (0.9% vs 1.1%) ethnic groups compared to regional averages.

Keysborough - South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Keysborough - South's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group makes up 14.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 13.7%. Between 2021 and the present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 5.1% to 6.0% of the population. Conversely, the 0-4 cohort has declined from 7.3% to 5.7%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate substantial changes for Keysborough - South. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to rise significantly, increasing by 1,303 people (52%) from 2,497 to 3,801. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort grows by a modest 7% (63 people).