Keysborough - South

Keysborough - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Keysborough - South's population is approximately 16,955 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 1,862 people, an increase of 12.3% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,093. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,894 in June 2024 and an additional 253 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 716 persons per square kilometer, which is roughly in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keysborough - South's growth rate exceeded that of both its SA3 area (6.8%) and the national average during this period. The population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 58.1% of overall population gains, although natural growth and interstate migration also played positive roles.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and the latest annual ERP population numbers, Keysborough - South is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas, with an expected growth of 5,848 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 34.0% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keysborough - South when compared nationally

Keysborough - South has granted around 130 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 651 homes. In FY26 so far, four approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25 attracted an average of 3.9 people to the area annually, indicating demand significantly outstripping supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers. The average construction cost for new homes in the area is $287,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

This financial year has seen $1.2 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - South records 136.0% more new home approvals per person. The development activity consists of 27.0% standalone homes and 73.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living that caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift marks a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (89.0%). The area's estimated population per dwelling approval is 1676 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, Keysborough - South is projected to grow by 5,767 residents.

Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, maintaining steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Keysborough - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, Keysborough Gardens Primary School Upgrade and Modernisation, Keysborough South Residential Precinct, and Aspire Keysborough. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Keysborough - South places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Keysborough - South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in September 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%.

As of September 2025, 10,061 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 76.7%, above Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Home-based work was high at 26.1% due to Covid-19 impacts. Key industries include manufacturing (1.9 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Education & training had lower representation at 6.6%, compared to the regional average of 9.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9% while unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% with a similar unemployment rise. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest Keysborough - South's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Keysborough - South SA2 has an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in this area is $53,191 and the average income stands at $62,597. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's figures are $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Keysborough - South SA2 would be approximately $57,579 (median) and $67,761 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in this area rank at the 90th percentile with a weekly income of $2,493. The income distribution shows that 37.3% of residents (6,324 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Keysborough - South demonstrates affluence with 38.0% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 88th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Keysborough - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Keysborough - South, as per the latest Census, 89.2% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 10.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is higher than Melbourne's metro area which had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - South was at 20.8%, with mortgaged properties at 62.5% and rented ones at 16.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,478, higher than Melbourne's metro average of $2,000. Weekly rent median was $520 compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Keysborough - South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 90.2% of all households, including 59.7% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keysborough - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Keysborough South significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of the latest data, 37.8% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university qualifications, compared to 26.7% in the SA3 area and 29.8% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%).

Vocational pathways account for 22.4% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over – advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (11.3%). Educational participation is notably high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keysborough - South has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 1,430 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 254 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 26.1% of residents work from home, possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 204 trips per day, translating to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keysborough - South's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keysborough - South. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover was found to be relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~8,545 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma (6.0%) and diabetes (4.2%), while 82.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 9.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,556 people), lower than the 14.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Keysborough - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 55.2% of its population born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keysborough-South, comprising 35.3% of the population. Buddhism is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, making up 18.2% of Keysborough-South's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.5%), Chinese (19.4%), and Australian (8.7%). Notably, Sri Lankan, Vietnamese, and Serbian ethnicities are overrepresented in Keysborough-South compared to regional averages: Sri Lankan at 3.2% vs 0.8%, Vietnamese at 8.4% vs 1.9%, and Serbian at 0.9% vs 0.4%.

Keysborough - South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Keysborough - South's median age is 35 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 14.8%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 13.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has increased from 5.1% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 0-4 cohort has decreased from 7.3% to 5.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Keysborough - South. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to rise by 1,298 people (52%), from 2,502 to 3,801. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort grows modestly by 6% (60 people).