Keysborough - South

Keysborough - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Keysborough - South's population is around 16,958 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,865 people (12.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,093 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,894 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 254 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 716 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keysborough - South's 12.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (6.9%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 58.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 5,848 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 34.0% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keysborough - South when compared nationally

Keysborough - South has recorded around 130 residential properties granted approval per year, totalling 651 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 7 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 3.9 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $287,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - South records 136.0% more new home approvals (per person), offering buyers greater choice, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. New building activity shows 27.0% standalone homes and 73.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 89.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 1676 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Keysborough - South is expected to grow by 5,764 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Keysborough - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 18 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, Keysborough Gardens Primary School Upgrade and Modernisation, Keysborough South Residential Precinct, and Aspire Keysborough, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Keysborough - South places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Keysborough - South possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.3%, and 4.7% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 10,162 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (76.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 26.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in manufacturing, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Conversely, education & training shows lower representation at 6.6% versus the regional average of 9.2%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.7% and the labour force increased by 4.9%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Keysborough - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keysborough - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Keysborough - South SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Keysborough - South SA2's median income among taxpayers is $53,191 and the average income stands at $62,597, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,579 (median) and $67,761 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 90th percentile ($2,493 weekly). Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 37.3% of residents (6,325 people), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Keysborough - South demonstrates considerable affluence with 38.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 88th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Keysborough - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Keysborough - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Keysborough - South was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 20.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (62.5%) or rented (16.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,478, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $520, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Keysborough - South's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 90.2% of all households, comprising 59.7% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size of 3.4 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keysborough - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Keysborough - South significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 37.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 26.7% in the SA3 area and 29.8% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational pathways account for 22.4% of qualifications among those aged 15+ - advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (11.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 44 active transport stops operating within Keysborough - South, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 10 individual routes, collectively providing 1,430 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 254 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 26.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 204 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keysborough - South's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keysborough - South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts see a low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~8,546 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.0% and 4.2% of residents, respectively, while 82.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 9.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,655 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

Keysborough - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 55.2% of its population born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Keysborough - South is Christianity, which makes up 35.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 18.2% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Keysborough - South are Other, comprising 26.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Chinese, comprising 19.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 6.5%, and Australian, comprising 8.7% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 3.2% of Keysborough - South (vs 0.8% regionally), Vietnamese at 8.4% (vs 1.9%) and Serbian at 0.9% (vs 0.4%).

Keysborough - South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Keysborough - South's median age of 35 years stands slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 as well as somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 45 - 54 age group shows strong representation at 15.0% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 13.5%. In the period since 2021, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 9.3% to 10.7% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 5.1% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort has declined from 7.3% to 5.4% and the 35 to 44 group dropped from 18.3% to 16.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Keysborough - South. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 1,250 people (49%) from 2,550 to 3,801.