Keysborough - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Keysborough - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Keysborough - South's population is around 16,837 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,744 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,093 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,874 from the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 229 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 711 persons per square kilometer. Keysborough - South's growth of 11.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 6.7%, along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 58.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends, Keysborough - South is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas. The area is expected to grow by 5,848 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, with an increase of 35.0% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keysborough - South when compared nationally

Keysborough - South has recorded approximately 130 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling 651 homes. So far in FY26, three approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.9 people move to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that demand significantly outstrips supply. This typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers.

The average construction value of new homes is $911,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In this financial year, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - South records 136.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice despite recent moderation in development activity. New building activity comprises 27.0% standalone homes and 73.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living that creates affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the current housing mix of 89.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1676 people in the area, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment.

By 2041, Keysborough - South is projected to grow by 5885 residents. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, maintaining steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Keysborough - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that may impact the region. Notable initiatives include the Keysborough Golf Club Relocation Project, Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, Keysborough Community Hub, and Aspire Keysborough. Details on projects of greatest relevance are provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market strength in Keysborough - South positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Keysborough - South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%. As of June 2025, 9,844 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, and workforce participation at 71.7%. Key industries are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade, with manufacturing employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. However, education & training shows lower representation at 6.6% compared to the regional average of 9.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7%, labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points during this period. By Sep-25, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keysborough - South's employment mix indicates local growth could be approximately 6.1%% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Keysborough - South has an income level below the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in Keysborough - South is $50,828, with an average income of $60,884. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's figures are $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on a 10.11% growth in wages since financial year 2022, current estimates project the median income to be approximately $55,967 and the average income to be around $67,039 as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, Keysborough - South's household incomes rank at the 91st percentile with a weekly income of $2,493. The distribution data shows that 37.3% of residents (6,280 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Keysborough - South demonstrates significant affluence with 38.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 88th percentile. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Keysborough - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Keysborough - South, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - South was at 20.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.5% and rented ones at 16.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,478, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Keysborough - South was $520, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially lower at $375.

Keysborough - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 90.2% of all households, including 59.7% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households making up 2.0%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Keysborough - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Keysborough - South is notably higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2016 Census data, 37.8% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university qualifications, compared to the SA3 area's 26.7% and the SA4 region's 29.8%. This significant educational advantage positions the area well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%).

Vocational pathways account for 22.4% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over – advanced diplomas comprise 11.1% and certificates make up 11.3%. Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2016 Census. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education. As of 2017 data, a robust network of 9 schools operates within Keysborough - South, educating approximately 7,580 students while the area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1084). The educational mix includes 1 primary school and 8 K-12 schools. As of 2016 data, the area functions as an education hub with 45.0 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 15.5 – attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keysborough-South has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 2,472 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average being located 254 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 353 trips per day, which equates to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keysborough - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Keysborough - South with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~8418 people), compared to 47.5% across Greater Melbourne, and the national average of 55.3%. Asthma and diabetes are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 6.0 and 4.2% of residents respectively.

A total of 82.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.1% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 9.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1545 people), lower than the 17.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population despite being strong.

Keysborough - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-South is one of the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 55.2 percent of its population born overseas and 65.2 percent speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keysborough-South, comprising 35.3 percent of the population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented, making up 18.2 percent compared to 15.2 percent across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups in Keysborough-South are 'Other' at 26.5 percent, Chinese at 19.4 percent (substantially higher than the regional average of 10.9 percent), and Australian at 8.7 percent. There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 3.2 percent compared to the regional average of 1.8 percent, Vietnamese is slightly overrepresented at 8.4 percent versus 8.5 percent regionally, and Indian is also overrepresented at 8.2 percent compared to the regional average of 6.2 percent.

Keysborough - South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Keysborough - South has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 5-14 years makes up 14.8%, higher than in Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort constitutes 13.7%. From 2021 to present, the 65-74 age group has increased from 5.1% to 6.0% of the population. Conversely, the 0-4 age group has decreased from 7.3% to 5.7%. By 2041, projections indicate significant demographic shifts in Keysborough - South. The 45-54 cohort is expected to rise substantially by 1,315 people (53%), from 2,485 to 3,801. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group is projected to grow modestly by 7% (67 people).