Keysborough - South

Keysborough - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Keysborough - South's population is around 16,958 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,865 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,093 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,894 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 254 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 716 persons per square kilometer. Keysborough - South's growth of 12.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (6.9%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 58.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends, Keysborough - South is forecast to grow significantly, with an expected increase of 5,848 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 34.0% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keysborough - South when compared nationally

Keysborough - South has recorded around 130 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling 651 homes. As of FY26, four approvals have been recorded. On average, approximately 3.9 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand outpacing supply, which typically influences prices positively and intensifies competition among buyers. The average construction cost value for new homes in Keysborough - South is $287,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

This financial year has seen $1.2 million in commercial approvals registered, highlighting the area's residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keysborough - South records 136.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice despite recent moderation in development activity. New building activity comprises 27.0% standalone homes and 73.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting affordability and suitability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a significant shift from the current housing mix of 89.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1676 people in the area. By 2041, Keysborough - South is projected to grow by 5764 residents (AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, maintaining steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Looking ahead, Keysborough - South is expected to grow by 5,764 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Keysborough - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 18 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Perry Road Construction and Widening - Stage 3, Keysborough Gardens Primary School Upgrade and Modernisation, Keysborough South Residential Precinct, and Aspire Keysborough. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Keysborough - South places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Keysborough - South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.9%. As of September 2025, 10,061 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation is higher at 76.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census responses show that 26.1% of residents work from home. Key industries include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade, with notable concentration in manufacturing at 1.9 times the regional average. Education & training shows lower representation at 6.6% compared to the regional average of 9.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, labour force grew by 5.2%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keysborough - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Keysborough - South SA2 has an income level below the national average according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ending June 30, 2023. The median income among taxpayers in this area is $53,191, with an average income of $62,597. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 30, 2023, current estimates for Keysborough - South SA2 would be approximately $57,579 (median) and $67,761 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank at the 90th percentile ($2,493 weekly). Distribution data shows that 37.3% of residents (6,325 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Keysborough - South demonstrates affluence with 38.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 88th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Keysborough - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Keysborough - South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keysborough - South was at 20.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.5% and rented ones at 16.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,478, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $520, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keysborough - South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Keysborough - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 90.2% of all households, including 59.7% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keysborough - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Keysborough South significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 37.8% of residents aged 15+ held university qualifications, compared to 26.7% in the SA3 area and 29.8% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 25.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%).

Vocational pathways accounted for 22.4% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 11.3%. Educational participation was notably high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2016. This included 10.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keysborough - South has 44 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,430 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 254 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 92%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents work from home, at 26.1%, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 204 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 32 weekly trips per stop.

Keysborough - South's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keysborough - South. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts, with asthma and diabetes being the most common conditions at 6.0% and 4.2%, respectively. Approximately 8,546 people had private health cover, around 50% of the total population, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Around 82.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 9.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,655 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Keysborough - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keysborough-South is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 55.2% of its population born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keysborough-South, comprising 35.3% of the population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented, making up 18.2%, which is substantially higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (26.5%), Chinese (19.4%), and Australian (8.7%). The Other group is notably higher than the regional average of 14.6%, while Chinese is higher than the regional average of 6.5%. Conversely, Australians are underrepresented compared to the regional average of 18.4%. There are also notable differences in the representation of Sri Lankan (3.2% vs 0.8%), Vietnamese (8.4% vs 1.9%), and Serbian (0.9% vs 0.4%) ethnic groups.

Keysborough - South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Keysborough-South's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The age group 45-54 has strong representation at 15.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 13.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 55-64 age group grew from 9.3% to 10.7%, and the 65-74 cohort increased from 5.1% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 0-4 cohort declined from 7.3% to 5.4%, and the 35-44 group dropped from 18.3% to 16.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Keysborough-South. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase substantially, with an addition of 1,250 people (49%), reaching a total of 3,801 from the previous count of 2,550.