Aspendale

Aspendale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Aspendale is around 7,563. This reflects an increase of 278 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,285. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,535 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 86 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,496 persons per square kilometer, placing Aspendale in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Aspendale has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.0% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the suburb expected to expand by 866 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 12.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Aspendale when compared nationally

Aspendale has averaged approximately 47 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 239 homes. As of FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. Based on historical data from FY-21 to FY-25, each dwelling constructed accommodates around 0.9 new residents annually. The average construction cost value for new properties is approximately $598,000.

In the current financial year, $7.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aspendale has seen slightly more development activity, with a 19.0% increase per person over the five-year period. The dwelling mix shows 32.0% detached dwellings and 68.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 69.0% houses. With around 162 people per dwelling approval, Aspendale exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate an expected increase of 927 residents by 2041, with new housing supply likely meeting demand based on current development patterns.

Population forecasts indicate Aspendale will gain 927 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Aspendale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area performance is significantly influenced by local infrastructure changes, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include The Strand Aspendale, Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale, Aspendale Beachside Structure Plan, and Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment. Relevant projects are detailed below.

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The employment landscape in Aspendale shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Aspendale's workforce is well-educated with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 5.2%.

Over the past year, employment stability has been relatively high based on AreaSearch aggregations of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 4,231 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is standard at 68.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Education & training has a particularly high employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Retail trade has limited presence with 7.7% employment compared to 9.8% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.3% while employment declined by 0.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.5 percentage points. Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest Aspendale's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Aspendale's employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Aspendale's median income among taxpayers was $60,616 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $77,332 during the same period. For Greater Melbourne, these figures were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Aspendale would be approximately $67,987 (median) and $86,736 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that incomes in Aspendale rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes all between the 80th and 85th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 30.7% of locals (2,321 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income category. This is similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence in Aspendale, with 36.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income, and residents rank within the 86th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Aspendale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Aspendale's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.2% houses and 30.8% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aspendale stood at 39.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 17.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,167. The median weekly rent was $460, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Aspendale's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were above the national figure of $375.

Aspendale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.0% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.0%, with lone person households at 21.2% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Aspendale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Aspendale trail regional benchmarks, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 46.0% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (18.5%). Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.1% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Aspendale's four schools have a combined enrollment of 2,487 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1075) and functions as an education hub with 32.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.6. This attracts students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aspendale has 20 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by two routes in total, facilitating 1,540 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is deemed good, with residents usually situated approximately 270 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 220 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 77 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Aspendale's health outcomes data shows excellent results across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 57% (~4,337 people) of Aspendale's total population has private health cover, which is significantly higher than the national average. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.9% and 6.5% of residents respectively. A majority, 72.9%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. Aspendale has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.7% (1,338 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.3%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Aspendale are strong and largely align with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Aspendale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale's population, born in Australia, was 80.3%. Citizenship stood at 92.1%, with English spoken exclusively at home by 89.5%. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 49.7%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.1%. Top ancestry groups were English (27.6%), Australian (25.9%), and Irish (10.7%). Russian (0.8%) and Hungarian (0.4%) were notably overrepresented in Aspendale.

Aspendale's median age exceeds the national pattern

Aspendale has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aspendale has an over-representation of the 55-64 age cohort (13.1% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (7.6%). Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 13.3%, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 15.1% to 13.7%. The 25-34 age group has also dropped from 9.0% to 7.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Aspendale's age profile. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to grow by 258 people (36%), increasing from 710 to 969. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 55% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.