Aspendale

Aspendale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The estimated population of Aspendale is 7,549 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 264 people from the 2021 Census count of 7,285 residents. AreaSearch's analysis of ERP data released by ABS in June 2025 and validated new addresses since the Census date indicates a resident population of 7,520. This results in a population density ratio of 2,491 persons per square kilometer, placing Aspendale in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are utilized with adjustments made via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Aspendale is expected to experience a population increase just below the national median by 2041, with an anticipated growth of 800 persons reflecting a total increase of 10.2% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Aspendale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Aspendale averaged approximately 48 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 241 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting new supply is keeping pace with demand and providing good choice for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $598,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

Additionally, $2.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aspendale has slightly more development, with 21.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, supporting good buyer choice and existing property values. New building activity consists of 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Aspendale has around 142 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area.

Population forecasts suggest the area will gain approximately 771 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Aspendale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. Eight projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Notable ones include The Strand Aspendale, Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale, Aspendale Beachside Structure Plan, and Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment. Relevant details are provided below.

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The employment landscape in Aspendale shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Aspendale has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 4.7% based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data as of December 2025. There were 4,071 residents in work, and the unemployment rate aligned with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was also on par with Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A high proportion of residents, 39.6%, worked from home according to Census responses, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment in Aspendale is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a particular specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Retail trade has limited presence with 7.7% employment compared to 9.8% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.0% and employment declined by 0.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points in Aspendale. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Aspendale. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Aspendale's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Aspendale suburb has a high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $60,616 and average income stands at $77,332. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $66,447 (median) and $84,771 (average). Census data shows household, family and personal incomes rank highly in Aspendale, between the 80th and 85th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 30.7% of locals (2,317 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income category. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 36.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income. Strong earnings rank residents within the 86th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Aspendale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Aspendale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.2% houses and 30.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aspendale was at 39.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 17.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $460, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aspendale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aspendale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.0% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.0%, with lone person households at 21.2% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aspendale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Aspendale Gardens trail regional benchmarks, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 46.0% in the SA4 region as of 2021 data. Bachelor degrees lead at 24.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (18.5%). Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest statistics.

This includes 11.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aspendale has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 1,659 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 271 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 86% of residents, while trains are employed by 8%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, surpassing the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 39.6% of residents work from home, which may be partly attributed to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 237 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Aspendale's health outcomes show excellent results according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover is very high, at approximately 57% of the total population (around 4,329 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.9 and 6.5% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 72.9%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 17.9% (around 1,351 people), than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Aspendale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, as 80.3% were born in Australia, 92.1% are citizens, and 89.5% speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 49.7%. However, Judaism is overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 1.0% regionally.

Top ancestry groups include English (27.6%), Australian (25.9%), and Irish (10.7%). Notably, Russian (0.8%) Hungarian (0.4%), and French (0.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Aspendale compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.5% respectively.

Aspendale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Aspendale has a median age of 40, which is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Aspendale has an over-representation of the 45-54 cohort (15.1%) and an under-representation of the 25-34 year-olds (8%). From 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 13.3%, while the 5-14 cohort has declined from 15.1% to 13.9%. By 2041, Aspendale's age profile is projected to evolve significantly. The 65-74 age group is expected to expand by 217 people (31%), growing from 709 to 927. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting Aspendale's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.