Chelsea

Population growth drivers in Chelsea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025 Chelsea's population is estimated at around 8,820. This reflects an increase of 473 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,347. The change was inferred from the resident population of 8,787 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 80 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,366 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Chelsea has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb, with an expected increase of 1,598 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 17.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Chelsea recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Chelsea has around 37 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 189 homes were approved, with a further six approved in FY26 so far. On average, 1.6 new residents arrive per new home each year over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions.

The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $671,000, slightly above the regional average. This financial year has seen $8.5 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting Chelsea's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chelsea shows 18.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks at the 58th percentile nationally among assessed areas. New development consists of 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% attached dwellings, favouring denser developments that appeal to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

With around 263 people per dwelling approval, Chelsea exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. By 2041, Chelsea is projected to grow by 1,523 residents according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction pace is maintaining reasonable growth, but increasing population may intensify competition among buyers.

Chelsea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two major projects that could impact the area's performance: The Dell by Stockland and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal. Other notable projects include Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale and Aspendale Beachside Structure Plan.

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Employment drivers in Chelsea are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Chelsea has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 7.2%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025, Chelsea's employment stands at 4,628 residents with an unemployment rate of 7.2%. This is 2.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Chelsea is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Notably, education & training has a high employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, accommodation & food services have limited presence with 4.4% employment compared to the regional 6.4%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. From June 2024 to June 2025, Chelsea's labour force increased by 1.5%, while employment declined by 0.8%, resulting in a 2.1 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Chelsea. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Chelsea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Chelsea had a median taxpayer income of $62,863 and an average income of $76,022 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This was higher than the national averages of $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average), as seen in Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest median income would be approximately $70,507 and average income around $85,266. The 2021 Census indicated personal income ranked at the 73rd percentile ($951 weekly) and household income at the 46th percentile in Chelsea. Income analysis showed that the majority of residents (31.7%, or 2,795 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels where this group also represented 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Chelsea, with only 82.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Chelsea features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Chelsea's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 34.7% houses and 65.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chelsea was at 29.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.7% and rented ones at 32.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Chelsea was $2,008, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Chelsea was $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Chelsea's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Chelsea features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.0% of all households, including 25.1% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 36.0% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Chelsea shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 33.7%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (21.3%).

A substantial 24.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.5% in primary, 5.7% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education. Chelsea's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 679 students, with above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1085). Educational provision is split between 2 primary and 2 secondary institutions. Local school capacity is limited at 7.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.6, leading many families to travel for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chelsea has 35 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 different routes, collectively facilitating 4,210 weekly passenger trips. The city's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically residing just 195 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 601 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 120 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chelsea is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Chelsea faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 57%, covering around 5,013 people. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.2 and 8.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 66.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 2016, 20.7% of Chelsea's population is aged 65 and over (1,825 people), which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Melbourne at that time. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Chelsea was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Chelsea's cultural diversity is above average, with 25.4% of its population born overseas and 15.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Chelsea, comprising 45.6% of the population. Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.6% versus 1.1%.

The top three ancestral groups are English (27.7%), Australian (22.5%), and Irish (9.7%). Russian, French, and Hungarian ethnicities show notable divergences in representation compared to regional figures: Russian is at 1.0% in Chelsea versus 1.0%, French at 0.8% versus 0.6%, and Hungarian at 0.4% versus 0.4%.

Chelsea hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Chelsea's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chelsea has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (7.4% vs 6.0%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (8.0% vs 9.0%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 7.4%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 14.4% to 13.3%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest Chelsea's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 68%, adding 442 residents to reach 1,095. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 60% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 0-4 and 5-14.