Carrum

Population growth drivers in Carrum are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Carrum's population is estimated at around 4,502, reflecting an increase of 263 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Carrum by AreaSearch in June 2024 was 4,486, with an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,885 persons per square kilometer, placing Carrum in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Since the 2021 census, Carrum's growth rate of 6.2% exceeded that of its SA3 area at 5.7%, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by 467 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Carrum shows approximately 35 dwelling approvals per year. Between financial years FY21 and FY25, around 175 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved so far in FY26. Despite a decrease in population over this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $730,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market and high-end developments. This financial year, Carrum has seen $29.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum exhibits moderately higher construction activity, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. New building activity comprises 42% standalone homes and 58% townhouses or apartments, promoting affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

With approximately 120 people per approval, Carrum reflects a low-density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carrum is projected to grow by 295 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Carrum has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting this region: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation (commencing 2019), and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal (scheduled for completion by 2025).

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Carrum recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Carrum has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 6.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, there are 2,467 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Carrum is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, the area has a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 8.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.6%, while employment decreased by 0.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insight into potential future demand within Carrum. These projections suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carrum's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these estimates are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Carrum's median income among taxpayers was $60,467 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $78,363 during the same period. These figures are higher than Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest Carrum's median income would be approximately $67,820 and the average around $87,892, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 70th percentile ($925 weekly) and household income at the 48th percentile in Carrum. In terms of income distribution, 34.7% of locals (1,562 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrum, with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 47th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carrum's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 45.2% houses and 54.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's composition of 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum stood at 31.9%, while mortgaged dwellings accounted for 37.2% and rented ones for 30.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,069, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Carrum was recorded at $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Carrum's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Carrum features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.1% of all households, consisting of 25.8% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.2% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Carrum shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 28.3%, significantly below the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.2%).

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.9% in primary, 5.8% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education. Carrum Primary School serves the local area with an enrollment of 364 students as of 2021. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas from 2022 onwards. School places per 100 residents stood at 8.1 in 2021, below the regional average of 15.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum has 29 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 7 different routes that collectively facilitate 3,377 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 150 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 482 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 116 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrum's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Carrum residents exhibit relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high, at approximately 58% of the total population (~2,599 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (8.8%) and asthma (7.7%), while 70.2% report being completely clear of medical ailments, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 70.4%. Carrum has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over (20.4%, or 918 people) than Greater Melbourne (19.3%). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum's cultural diversity is above average, with 22.2% of its population born overseas and 12.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrum, accounting for 40.1% of its population. While Judaism comprises only 0.3% of Carrum's population, it is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups in Carrum are English (28.4%), Australian (26.0%), and Irish (9.4%). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Hungarian (0.6% vs regional 0.4%), Russian (0.8% vs 1.0%), and Greek (2.2% vs 3.3%).

Carrum's median age exceeds the national pattern

Carrum has a median age of 40, which is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Carrum at 14.0%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.3% to 6.9% of the population, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 8.5% to 9.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.8% to 12.3%, and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 14.0% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carrum's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 203 people (65%), increasing from 310 to 514. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.