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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Carrum has an estimated 4,490 residents, up from 4,239 at the 2021 Census — a change of 251 people, or 5.9%. Growth has averaged 0.8% a year over five years. Overseas migration accounts for 69.0% of that increase. That puts 2,878 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, the suburb of Carrum has an estimated population of around 4,490, determined through AreaSearch's evaluation of regional ABS updates alongside 82 newly validated addresses recorded since the Census date. This represents an addition of 251 people (5.9%) compared to the 4,239 people documented in the 2021 Census. AreaSearch established a resident population base of 4,473 following the ABS release of June 2025 ERP figures. With a density of 2,878 persons per square kilometer, the locality sits within the upper quartile of national areas analyzed by AreaSearch.
Over the preceding decade, the suburb of Carrum expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, surpassing the broader SA3 area, with overseas migration serving as the principal driver by generating approximately 69.0% of recent population gains. For demographic forecasting, AreaSearch applies the 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia projections using 2022 as a baseline for each SA2, turning to the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA releases via weighted aggregation from LGA down to SA2 boundaries where gaps exist. Age-specific rates derived from these models are similarly integrated for all locations between 2032 to 2041. Future demographic projections indicate that the suburb of Carrum is set to outpace the national median across statistical areas, with an anticipated increase of 495 persons to 2041 under aggregated SA2 modeling, culminating in an overall expansion of 10.7% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
177 new dwellings have been approved in Carrum over the past five years, an average of 35 a year. That places the area in the 50th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 8 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 32 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 47% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 23, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Examining ABS building approval statistics distributed across statistical boundaries, AreaSearch notes that Carrum has averaged around 35 dwellings approved annually, amounting to 177 homes throughout the past 5 financial years. During FY-25 to date, 23 approvals have been logged. Residential construction has seen an average of 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling completed between FY-21 and FY-25, pointing to balanced supply and demand dynamics, while the average expected construction cost for newly approved residences stands at $709,000, underscoring building activity in the higher-end market. Furthermore, commercial planning activity remains robust, with $27.9 million in commercial approvals registered this financial year.
Per-capita building volume in Carrum exceeds Greater Melbourne by 54.0%, presenting a diverse array of residential options. Recent building permits are divided between 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% townhouses or apartments, delivering medium-to-higher density options suitable for first-home buyers, investors, and downsizers seeking accessible entry price points. With approximately around 171 people per approval, the urban profile of Carrum maintains low density characteristics. Projections from AreaSearch's latest quarterly figures anticipate Carrum expanding by 478 residents through to 2041. Ongoing residential construction volumes appear well positioned to satisfy anticipated demand, creating favorable buyer conditions and potentially facilitating local expansion beyond baseline demographic forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Carrum
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 2 current infrastructure and development projects inside Carrum. A further 37 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $2.64 billion. 11 are already under construction and 10 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Infrastructure upgrades and major public works significantly shape community growth and local performance. AreaSearch has identified 2 projects positioned to influence the surrounding district. Principal undertakings include the Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal, and Bonbeach Lifesaving Club Redevelopment, with key details provided in the following review.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements
Multi-stage public realm upgrades led by the City of Kingston to improve access and amenity across the Carrum foreshore and Patterson River precinct. Stage 1 (Beauty Spot Memorial Park upgrade) is completed. Stage 2 (Carrum Boardwalk extension north to the Patterson River path with handrails, tactile indicators, viewing platform, interpretive signage and solar bollard lighting) commenced in October 2024 and was scheduled to finish by March 2025. Stage 3 (Stephens Street Car Park pavements, new accessible bays, linemarking, signage and solar lighting) targeted completion by mid-2025.As of August 2025, the precinct works are considered completed per the council delivery program.
The Dell by Stockland
Large masterplanned residential community directly opposite Bonbeach Station featuring townhomes and apartments, with future retail and community amenities planned within the precinct.
Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation
Removal of three dangerous and congested level crossings at Station Street, Eel Race Road, and Mascot Avenue, and the construction of a new, elevated Carrum Station. The project also included a major revitalisation of the area, creating new community spaces, including a foreshore park, a village green, and a town square.
8A Klauer Street Industrial Development
8A Klauer Street comprises a 16,150 sqm industrial superlot adjoining Compass Business Park in Seaford. Zoned Industrial 1 (IN1Z), the site features dedicated private access from Klauer Street with direct arterial links to Frankston-Dandenong Road, Peninsula Link, and Eastlink. The property provides masterplanned industrial development and owner-occupier warehousing potential within Melbourne's South East industrial corridor.
Seaford Level Crossing Removal - Armstrongs Road & Station Street
Removal of the Armstrongs Road and Station Street level crossings by constructing two separate rail bridges, together with a new elevated and fully accessible Seaford Station. The project will improve safety, reduce congestion, create new public open space and enhance walking and cycling connections. Early designs were released in 2026, planning approvals are progressing, construction is scheduled to commence in 2027 and completion is expected in 2028.
Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre Upgrade and Expansion
Completed upgrade and expansion of the Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre delivering a new integrated early years facility with two kindergarten rooms providing up to 66 licensed places, maternal and child health consultation rooms, allied health space, youth facilities, community rooms, landscaped outdoor play areas, additional parking and sustainable building features including solar PV. Services commenced from the new centre in Term 1, 2026.
Bonbeach Life Saving Club Redevelopment
Completed redevelopment of the Bonbeach Life Saving Club facility, replacing the ageing clubhouse with a new fit-for-purpose two-level building supporting patrol, first aid, training, storage, community and club functions. The facility includes public outdoor showers, accessible amenities, balconies, multipurpose spaces and sustainability features including rainwater tanks, solar panels, natural-light glazing, heat-pump water heating and water-efficient fittings.
Bondi Road, Bonbeach Level Crossing Removal
Completed Victorian Government Level Crossing Removal Project works at Bonbeach removed the Bondi Road level crossing by lowering the Frankston line into a rail trench and rebuilding the road at surface level. The project also delivered the new Bonbeach Station, improved walking and cycling connections, upgraded accessibility, bike facilities, lighting, landscaping, and station precinct improvements as part of the Edithvale, Chelsea and Bonbeach package.
2,465 residents of Carrum are employed, from a labour force of 2,601. Unemployment sits at 5.2%, with participation at 69.5%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.7% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 3,550, about 79% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Aggregated statistical area data from AreaSearch highlights a capable local workforce in Carrum, marked by a strong presence in essential services, an unemployment rate of 5.2%, and 1.1% estimated annual job growth. As of March 2026, 2,465 residents are employed, while the local jobless rate sits 0.5% above the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8%, with overall labour participation aligning closely with Greater Melbourne's 70.1%. Census records show 30.7% of working residents based at home, a figure influenced by Covid-19 restrictions. The resident labour force is heavily concentrated across education & training, construction, and health care & social assistance.
The local market exhibits notable specialization in construction, where employment density reaches 1.5 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical roles account for 8.0%, trailing the regional proportion of 10.1%. A comparison between resident workers and local jobs recorded in the Census suggests Carrum functions primarily as a residential catchment with limited internal employment. Analysis of ABS and SALM metrics by AreaSearch indicates that over the 12 months to March 2026, Carrum registered 1.1% employment growth against a 0.1% labour force expansion, reducing unemployment by 1.0 percentage points. Over the equivalent timeframe, Greater Melbourne recorded a 2.1% increase in employment, 2.3% labour force growth, and a 0.2 percentage points lift in unemployment. Looking at industry outlooks, Jobs and Skills Australia's national forecasts from Mar-26 project employment across Australia to rise 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Mapping these sectoral projections onto Carrum's specific industry composition suggests local workforce expansion of 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (calculated via simple weighted extrapolation for illustrative purposes, without incorporating localized population forecasts).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Carrum is $1,732 a week (about $90,000 a year), with median personal income at $925 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $60,467 a year against an average of $78,363. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode ATO records for financial year 2023, the suburb of Carrum recorded a median taxpayer income of $60,467 and an average of $78,363, outpacing Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 as well as national benchmarks. Accounting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, estimated earnings as of March 2026 stand at $66,284 (median) and $85,902 (average). Census findings place individual earnings at the 70th percentile ($925 weekly), whereas household earnings reside at the 48th percentile. Within the locality, 34.7% of residents (1,558 individuals) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, matching broader regional distributions of 32.8%.
Affordability constraints leave households with 82.5% of income after housing expenses (47th percentile), with the SEIFA income score positioning the suburb in the 6th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Carrum had 1,805 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 45% detached houses and 13% apartments. 37% are owned with a mortgage, 31% rented and 32% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $406 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,069 a month. Rent absorbs 23.4% of household income here and mortgage repayments 27.6%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Census data reveals that residential stock in Carrum is divided between 45.2% houses and 54.8% other dwellings, in contrast to Melbourne metro where separate houses represent 67.9% and other dwellings account for 32.1%. Outright home ownership matches Melbourne metro at 31.9%, alongside 37.2% of properties held under a mortgage and 30.8% rented. Monthly mortgage commitments in Carrum median at $2,069, exceeding the Melbourne metro benchmark of $2,000 and the Australian average of $1,863. Similarly, median weekly rents of $406 surpass both the Melbourne metro rate of $390 and the national standard of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Carrum counted 1,805 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 1,912 today, averaging 2.3 people each. 26% are couples with children, against 25% couples without children. 32% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.5 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family arrangements comprise 64.1% of local households, consisting of 25.8% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family living situations account for 35.9%, split between lone person households at 32.2% and group households at 3.3%. At 2.3 people per household, Carrum's median household size is more compact than the Greater Melbourne metric of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
28.3% of adults in Carrum hold a university qualification, including 19.6% with a bachelor degree and 5.4% with postgraduate qualifications, higher than 76% of areas nationally. A further 25.2% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 364 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,070 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Higher education attainment presents targeted opportunities in the locality, with 28.3% of residents holding a tertiary qualification compared to 46.0% across the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees represent the primary university credential at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.4% and graduate diplomas at 3.3%. Vocational qualifications are prominent, as 38.3% of individuals aged 15+ hold technical credentials, comprising 25.2% with certificates and 13.1% holding advanced diplomas. A total of 24.0% of local residents are enrolled in educational courses. This cohort is distributed across primary education at 7.9%, secondary education at 5.8%, and tertiary education at 3.6%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Carrum reaches 30 stops on 9 routes, timetabled for about 4,100 services a week. The typical home sits about 150 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit infrastructure in Carrum features 30 active transport stops supporting bus services across 9 individual routes, which combine to deliver 4,135 weekly passenger trips. Transit access is highly convenient, with typical walking distances of 150 meters to the closest stop. Given its residential orientation, outward commuting prevails, led by private vehicles at 87% and train travel at 8%, with vehicle ownership averaging 1.2 per dwelling. In addition, 30.7% of residents worked remotely according to the 2021 Census, potentially reflecting COVID-19 circumstances. Public transport schedules maintain an average volume of 590 trips per day across the collective network, translating to approximately 137 weekly trips for each transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
70.2% of residents in Carrum report no long-term health condition. 5.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 57.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.6 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Assessments of chronic disease rates and mortality by AreaSearch indicate positive health outcomes across Carrum, where both younger and older demographics exhibit low occurrences of routine health conditions. In addition, private health insurance coverage is extensive, encompassing approximately 58% of the population (~2,592 people). Asthma and mental health issues form the most widespread conditions in the community, diagnosed in 7.7% and 8.8 of residents respectively, while 70.2% report no long-term medical issues compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health measures among residents aged under 65 are particularly favourable. Residents aged 65 and over represent 20.7% of the locality (929 people), exceeding Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, with senior health metrics tracking above average and matching national trends across the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Carrum is largely Australian-born, at 77.8% of residents, with 12.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (28.4%) and Australian (26.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures in Carrum are above average, with 22.2% of residents born abroad and 12.0% speaking a non-English language in their homes. Christianity forms the dominant religious affiliation, representing 40.1% of the community. In comparison, Judaism constitutes 0.3% of the local population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne. Ancestral backgrounds in Carrum are led by English ancestry at 28.4% (above the 20.1% regional mark), Australian at 26.0% (exceeding the 18.4% regional average), and Irish at 9.4%. Other backgrounds show distinct local concentrations, including Hungarian at 0.6% (compared to 0.3% regionally), Russian at 0.8% (versus 0.4%), and Greek heritage at 2.2% (relative to 2.7% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Carrum is 40. 22.0% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Demographic data updated to August 2026 shows an older age profile in Carrum, where retiree and elderly cohorts (65+) make up 20.7% of the populace compared to 15.1% across Greater Melbourne, while young to middle aged adults (25 - 44) account for 27.9% versus 32.1% across the wider metropolitan area. AreaSearch assesses the median age at 40 as at August 2026, identical to the 2021 Census level and 3 years older than Greater Melbourne's median of 37 at the 2021 Census. Since the Census, the share of retiree and elderly cohorts increased from 17.1% to 20.7%.
Projections to 2041 anticipate this senior group absorbing the vast majority of growth by adding 444 residents (48%) to total 1,373, whereas young to middle aged adults along with children and young adults are forecast to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Carrum
8 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 8 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 3 sections | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2025 about a year ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2025. | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 82 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (4,239 at the 2021 Census → 4,490 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20507). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.