Carrum

Population growth drivers in Carrum are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carrum's population is estimated at around 4,490 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 251 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,239 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population being 4,473 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,878 persons per square kilometer, placing Carrum in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Carrum has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national areas is projected for Carrum, with the suburb expected to grow by 512 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.0% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Carrum when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Carrum averaged around 34 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 171 homes. So far in FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.1 new residents arrived per new home built.

Supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes was $730,000, indicating developers targeted the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $27.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Carrum recorded somewhat elevated construction levels, 46.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

New development consisted of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 131 people per dwelling approval, Carrum showed characteristics of a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate Carrum will gain 495 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Carrum has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The area's performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified two projects that are expected to impact the area: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation (scheduled for completion on 29th January 2023), and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal (expected to finish on 1st December 2025). Other notable projects include Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, and Bonbeach Lifesaving Club Redevelopment.

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The employment landscape in Carrum shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.2% as of December 2024. Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability based on AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

By December 2025, Carrum had an unemployment rate of 5.2%, which was 0.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Carrum was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's at 69.9%. According to Census responses, 30.7% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Notably, construction employment levels were at 1.5 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employed only 8.0% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels in Carrum increased by 0.5%, while the labour force remained unchanged, resulting in a decrease of unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6%. Over ten years, this growth is projected to reach 13.7%. Applying these projections to Carrum's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on 30 June 2023 for financial year 2023, Carrum had a median taxpayer income of $60,467 and an average income of $78,363. These figures are high compared to national levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $66,284 (median) and $85,902 (average), based on a 9.62% growth in wages since financial year 2023. In 2021 Census figures, personal income ranked at the 70th percentile ($925 weekly), while household income was at the 48th percentile. The predominant income cohort in Carrum is 34.7%, or 1,558 people, earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This pattern is similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall into this category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 47th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carrum's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 45.2% houses and 54.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum was 31.9%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.2% and rented ones at 30.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carrum was $2,069, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Carrum was $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carrum's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,069 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were higher at $406 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carrum features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.1% of all households, including 25.8% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.2% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Carrum shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 28.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.1% and certificates at 25.2%. A total of 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.9% in primary, 5.8% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.0% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 5.8% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that together facilitate 2817 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing within 150 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward from Carrum. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 87%, while train usage stands at 8%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, 30.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 402 trips per day, equating to approximately 93 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Carrum is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Carrum shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is high at approximately 58% of the total population (~2,592 people). The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (affecting 8.8% of residents) and asthma (7.7%). 70.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Under-65 population health outcomes are better than average. Carrum has 21.0% of residents aged 65 and over (942 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Carrum records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 22.2% born overseas and 12.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrum, representing 40.1%. Notably, Judaism comprises 0.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top ancestry groups are English (28.4%), Australian (26.0%), and Irish (9.4%). Hungarian (0.6%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.3%. Similarly, Russian (0.8% vs 0.4%) and Greek (2.2% vs 2.7%) show notable divergences in representation.

Carrum's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carrum has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Carrum has an over-representation of the 65-74 age cohort (11.4% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (12.2%). Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.3% to 7.3%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 8.5% to 9.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 13.8% to 11.6%, and the 25 to 34 age group has dropped from 14.0% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carrum's age profile will significantly change. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 187 people (57%), from 327 to 515. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 77% of total population growth, reflecting Carrum's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.