Carrum

Population growth drivers in Carrum are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Carrum statistical area (Lv2) is around 4,512 people. This represents an increase of 273 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,239 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 4,494 residents as of June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, along with an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,892 persons per square kilometer, placing Carrum in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 6.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.6%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Carrum (SA2) is expected to increase by 466 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 6.3% in total population over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carrum has received around 35 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 179 homes were approved, with a further 14 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $730,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market. This year, commercial approvals totalled $27.9 million, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum has 53.0% higher construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. New building activity comprises 44.0% standalone homes and 56.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 116 people per approval, Carrum reflects a low-density area.

By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Carrum's population will grow by 284 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, supporting good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating growth beyond current projections.

Carrum has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation (scheduled for completion in 2025) and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal (planned for completion in late 2023).

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Carrum recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Carrum has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 5.7%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 2,424 residents employed, while the unemployment rate is 1.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Carrum is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Carrum has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share that is 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 8.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.5%, while employment decreased by 0.5% in Carrum, causing its unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. State-level data from VIC up to 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Carrum. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carrum's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Carrum had a median income among taxpayers of $60,467 and an average income of $78,363 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $65,456 (median) and $84,828 (average). The 2021 Census ranked personal income at the 70th percentile ($925 weekly) and household income at the 48th percentile. In Carrum, 34.7% of locals (1,565 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where 32.8% were in this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 47th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Carrum displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carrum's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 45.2% houses and 54.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro had a structure of 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum was at 31.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (30.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,069, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Carrum was $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Carrum's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,069 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $406 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carrum features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.1% of all households, including 25.8% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.2% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Carrum shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 28.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.2%). A total of 24.0% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 7.9% in primary, 5.8% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.0% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 5.8% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum has 30 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 8 different routes, which together facilitate 2,817 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 150 meters to the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency across all routes averages 402 trips, resulting in approximately 93 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrum's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Carrum residents.

The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 58% (~2,605 people) have private health cover, which is a very high rate. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.8 and 7.7% of residents respectively. A total of 70.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, Carrum has 20.4% (920 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Carrum records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 22.2% born overseas and 12.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrum, accounting for 40.1% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.3% versus 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (28.4%), Australian (26.0%), and Irish (9.4%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Hungarian at 0.6% in Carrum versus 0.4% regionally, Russian at 0.8% versus 1.0%, and Greek at 2.2% versus 3.3%.

Carrum's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carrum has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years. This is also marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Carrum has an over-representation of the 55-64 age cohort (14.0%), while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented (12.7%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.3% to 6.9% of Carrum's population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.8% to 12.3%, and the 25-34 age group has dropped from 14.0% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carrum's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 201 people (65%), increasing from 311 to 513 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 87% of total population growth, reflecting Carrum's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 25-34 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.