Carrum

Population growth drivers in Carrum are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Carrum as of Feb 2026 is around 4511. This reflects an increase of 272 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4239. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4494 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2891 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum's growth rate of 6.4% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 5.6%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, the suburb is expected to grow by just below the median of national statistical areas, with an increase of 473 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 6.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Carrum averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 179 homes. As of April 2026, 14 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. During this period, population has fallen slightly, indicating that new supply may be keeping pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $730,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In the current financial year, $27.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum records 53.0% more development activity per person as of April 2026. This should provide buyers with ample choice. New development consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% townhouses or apartments, skewed towards compact living which offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

With around 116 people per dwelling approval, Carrum shows characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carrum is forecasted to gain approximately 299 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Carrum has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact the area: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation (scheduled for completion in 2025), and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal (expected to finish by 2026). Other notable projects include Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, and Bonbeach Lifesaving Club Redevelopment.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Carrum recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Carrum has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.7%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 2,416 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Carrum is lower at 67.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census responses indicate that 30.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction is particularly strong in Carrum, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 8.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Carrum's labour force increased by 0.4% while employment declined by 0.7%, resulting in a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 3.0%, the labour force grew by 3.3%, and unemployment increased by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for local population changes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Carrum suburb has median taxpayer income of $60,467 and average income of $78,363, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. Greater Melbourne's figures are $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). By September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $65,456 and average income is $84,828, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. Personal income ranks at the 70th percentile ($925 weekly), household income at the 48th percentile. Income distribution shows that 34.7% (1,565 residents) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 47th percentile. Carrum's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Carrum, as per the latest Census evaluation, 45.2% of dwellings were houses while 54.8% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metropolitan area's dwelling composition of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum stood at 31.9%, similar to Melbourne metro's rate, with the rest being mortgaged (37.2%) or rented (30.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carrum was $2,069, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Carrum was recorded at $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carrum's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Carrum features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.1 percent of all households, including 25.8 percent couples with children, 24.5 percent couples without children, and 13.4 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9 percent, with lone person households at 32.2 percent and group households comprising 3.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Carrum shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 28.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.2%). A total of 24.0% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 7.9% in primary, 5.8% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.0% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 5.8% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 2,817 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 150 meters of the nearest stop. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 87%, while 8% use trains. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 30.7%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 402 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 93 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Carrum is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Carrum shows better-than-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age groups have low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is high at approximately 58% of the total population (around 2,605 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 8.8% of residents and asthma impacting 7.7%. About 70.2% of residents report being free from medical ailments compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Under-65s have better-than-average health outcomes. Carrum has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.3% (960 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Carrum records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum's cultural diversity is above average, with 22.2% born overseas and 12.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity dominates Carrum's religion at 40.1%. Judaism is overrepresented in Carrum at 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In ancestry, English (28.4%) and Australian (26.0%) are substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%, respectively. Irish ancestry stands at 9.4%. Hungarian (0.6%), Russian (0.8%), and Greek (2.2%) ethnic groups show notable divergences from regional percentages.

Carrum's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carrum has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Carrum at 14.1%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.3% to 7.5%, and the 65-74 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 13.8% to 11.8%, and the 25-34 group dropped from 14.0% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carrum's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 183 people (54%), from 338 to 522. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 84% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 25-34 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.