Carrum

Population growth drivers in Carrum are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch's validation, the estimated population of Carrum as of Feb 2026 is around 4,511. This reflects an increase of 272 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,239. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,494 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,891 persons per square kilometer, placing Carrum in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum's growth of 6.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 5.6%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 494 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 10.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Carrum averaged approximately 34 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 171 homes. As of FY26, 15 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good buyer choice. The average construction value per home is $730,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment.

This financial year, $27.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum has recorded 46.0% more construction per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice and supporting existing property values. New development consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 127 people per dwelling approval, Carrum exhibits low-density characteristics.

AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Carrum to gain 477 residents by 2041, suggesting current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Carrum has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact the area: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation (scheduled for completion in 2025), and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal (expected to finish by 2026). Other notable projects include Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, and Bonbeach Lifesaving Club Redevelopment.

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The employment landscape in Carrum shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum's workforce is skilled with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.2% as of December 2024. Employment stability over the past year has been relative.

As of December 2025, 2,415 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation stands at 67.9%, below Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A high 30.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Construction employment levels are particularly notable, at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 8.0% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area may offer limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2%, while labour force decreased by 0.4%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Carrum had a median income among taxpayers of $60,467 and an average income of $78,363. These figures are high compared to national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 in Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,456 for median income and $84,828 for average income as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 70th percentile with a weekly income of $925, while household income sits at the 48th percentile. The predominant income cohort spans 34.7% of locals (1,565 people) in the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 47th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Carrum, as per the latest Census evaluation, 45.2% of dwellings were houses, with 54.8% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum was at 31.9%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 37.2%, while rented dwellings made up 30.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carrum was $2,069, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Carrum was $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carrum's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Carrum features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.1% of all households, including 25.8% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.2% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Carrum shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 28.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.2%).

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 7.9% in primary, 5.8% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight unique routes that collectively facilitate 2,817 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to public transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing within 150 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commutes are outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 87% of residents, while trains account for 8%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 30.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 402 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 93 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Carrum is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Carrum shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age groups have low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is high, at approximately 58% of the total population (around 2,605 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 8.8% of residents and asthma impacting 7.7%. About 70.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. Carrum has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (942 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with national rankings.

In terms of cultural diversity, Carrum records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 22.2% born overseas and 12.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrum, accounting for 40.1%. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.3% versus 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English (28.4%) and Australian (26.0%) are substantially higher than regional averages (20.1% and 18.4% respectively). Irish ancestry also stands out at 9.4%. Notable divergences exist for Hungarian (0.6% vs 0.3%), Russian (0.8% vs 0.4%), and Greek (2.2% vs 2.7%) ethnic groups.

Carrum's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carrum has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Carrum has a notably higher proportion of individuals aged 55-64 (13.9%) but a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (12.0%). Between 2021 and present, the population aged 75-84 grew from 5.3% to 7.3%, while the 65-74 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 13.8% to 11.7%, and the 25-34 group dropped from 14.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carrum's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 61% from 329 to 530 individuals. Notably, the combined population aged 65 and above will account for 76% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.