Seaford (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Seaford reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Seaford's population is approximately 18,369, indicating a growth of 1,154 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was recorded as 17,215. This increase represents a 6.7% rise from the census figure and is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 18,305 in June 2025, along with an additional 308 validated new addresses since then. The population density in Seaford stands at 1,477 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Seaford's growth of 6.7% since the 2021 census outperformed both the SA4 region (3.2%) and the SA3 area, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.7% to the overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch's projections for Seaford are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Seaford is expected to experience population growth just below the national median. By 2041, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area's population is projected to increase by 1,778 persons, reflecting a total increase of 9.3% over the 16-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Seaford when compared nationally

Seaford has averaged approximately 84 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 420 homes were approved, with an additional 61 approved in FY26 as of now. On average, 1.6 people have moved to the area per year for each dwelling built during these five financial years.

This balance between supply and demand has maintained stable market conditions while new homes are constructed at an average expected cost of $365,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totaled $40.0 million, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Seaford has 53.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. New developments consist of 39.0% detached houses and 61.0% attached dwellings, shifting from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 74.0% houses. This trend reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. With approximately 242 people per dwelling approval, Seaford demonstrates a growing market.

By 2041, population forecasts indicate an increase of 1,714 residents (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Seaford has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified fifteen projects that are anticipated to impact this particular area. Notable projects include the Frankston Basketball and Gymnastics Stadium Redevelopment, Seaford Level Crossing Removal at Armstrongs Road and Station Street, 8A Klauer Street Industrial Development, and Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre Upgrade and Expansion. The following list details those projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Seaford shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Seaford has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.6% in the past year with an estimated employment growth of 2.6%. As of December 2025, there are 9,346 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is lower at 65.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 26.3% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has notably high employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 6.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.6%, labour force by 2.0%, resulting in a unemployment rate decrease of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 project national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Seaford's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Seaford SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $58,896 and an average of $67,446 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is approximately average nationally, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $64,562 (median) and $73,934 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 51st percentile ($809 weekly), while household income sits at the 35th percentile. The data shows that 31.7% of residents (5,822 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Seaford SA2, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 33rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Seaford is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Seaford's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 73.7% houses and 26.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Seaford stood at 28.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.0% and rented ones at 34.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Seaford was $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Seaford's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Seaford features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.9% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Seaford performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (26.2%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, with 9.0% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Seaford has 93 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that collectively facilitate 3,331 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located 224 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 90%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a significant 26.3% of residents work from home, which may be partly due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 475 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Seaford is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Seaford faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~9,662 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.2% and 9.3% of residents respectively. However, 64.1% report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 19.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,576 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Seaford records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Seaford's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 86.9% being citizens, 78.9% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 40.4%. Judaism, at 0.4%, is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.9%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (9.4%). Notably, Russian (0.6%) Hungarian (0.4%), and Dutch (1.6%) populations in Seaford exceed regional averages of 0.4%, 0.3%, and 1.2% respectively.

Seaford's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Seaford has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Comparing Seaford's age distribution with Greater Melbourne's shows an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort (10.1% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (12.3%). Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 6.9% of Seaford's population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Seaford's age profile. The 75 to 84 age cohort is expected to grow by 445 people (35%), reaching a total of 1,709 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will contribute to 58% of total population growth, reflecting Seaford's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.