Seaford (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Seaford reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Seaford's population is around 18,352 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,137 people (6.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,215 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,072 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 305 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,476 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Seaford's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (4.1%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest a population increase just below the median of national areas, with an expected expansion of 1,893 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 8.8% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Seaford when compared nationally

Seaford averaged approximately 84 new dwelling approvals annually from FY-21 to FY-25. A total of 420 homes were approved during these years, with an additional 42 approved in FY-26. On average, 1.6 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and new homes constructed at an average cost of $365,000.

This financial year has seen $40.0 million in commercial development approvals, indicating robust commercial growth momentum compared to Greater Melbourne, where Seaford has 54.0% more construction activity per person. New developments consist of 39.0% detached houses and 61.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser housing options that cater to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This shift contrasts with the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 74.0% houses. Seaford has around 242 people per dwelling approval, indicating low-density characteristics. By 2041, population forecasts project an increase of 1,613 residents (AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting further population growth beyond existing projections.

Population forecasts indicate Seaford will gain 1,613 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Seaford has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 16 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Frankston Basketball and Gymnastics Stadium Redevelopment, Seaford Level Crossing Removal - Armstrongs Road & Station Street, 8A Klauer Street Industrial Development, and Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre Upgrade and Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Seaford remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Seaford has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.2% as of September 2024. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.9%.

As of September 2025, 9,313 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Seaford lags behind Greater Melbourne, with rates of 65.2% and 71.0% respectively. According to Census responses, 26.3% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly notable, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical services employ only 6.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.9%, labour force increased by 2.8%, resulting in a slight fall of unemployment by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Seaford's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income for Seaford SA2 is $58,896, with an average of $67,446, based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This figure is approximately national average, unlike Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be around $63,755 (median) and $73,010 (average), adjusted by Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 51st percentile ($809 weekly), while household income is at the 35th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates Seaford with 31.7% of residents (5,817 people), similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 33rd percentile. Seaford's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Seaford is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census data indicates that in Seaford, 73.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 26.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Seaford stood at 28.7%, with mortgaged properties at 37.0% and rented dwellings at 34.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Seaford was $1,850, lower than Melbourne's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Seaford was recorded at $351, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Seaford's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Seaford features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.9% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Seaford performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (26.2%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, comprising 9.0% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Seaford has 93 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 3,331 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Seaford is rated as good, with residents typically located 224 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 90%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 475 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Seaford is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Seaford faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover is held by approximately 53% of Seaford's total population (around 9,653 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 10.2 and 9.3% of residents respectively. About 64.1% of residents claim to have no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age population health is a notable concern due to high chronic condition rates. Seaford has 19.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,611 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes for seniors present challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Seaford records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Seaford's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 86.9% citizens, 78.9% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 40.4%. Judaism is overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

Top ancestry groups are English (29.9%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (9.4%), all higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Notably, Russian (0.6%), Hungarian (0.4%), and Dutch (1.6%) groups are overrepresented in Seaford compared to regional figures of 0.4%, 0.3%, and 1.2%.

Seaford's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Seaford has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Seaford at 10.2%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 11.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 9.2% to 10.4% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 5.9% to 7.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 11.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Seaford's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 445 people, from 1,290 to 1,736, a 35% increase. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 59% of total population growth, reflecting Seaford's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.