Seaford (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Seaford reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Seaford's population is around 18,352 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,137 people (6.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,215 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,072 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 305 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,476 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Seaford's 6.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.1%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 50.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 1,893 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 8.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Seaford when compared nationally

Seaford has averaged around 84 new dwelling approvals per year, with 420 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 51 so far in FY-26. With an average of 1.6 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new homes are being built at an average value of $365,000. Additionally, $40.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Seaford has 54.0% more construction activity (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. New development consists of 39.0% detached houses and 61.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 74.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 242 people per dwelling approval, Seaford shows characteristics of a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Seaford will gain 1,613 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Seaford has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Frankston Basketball and Gymnastics Stadium Redevelopment, Seaford Level Crossing Removal - Armstrongs Road & Station Street, 8A Klauer Street Industrial Development, and the Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre Upgrade and Expansion, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Seaford shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Seaford possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.6%, and 2.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 9,346 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.8% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (65.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 26.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 6.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.6% and the labour force increased by 2.0%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Seaford. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Seaford's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Seaford SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $58,896 and an average of $67,446 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is approximately average nationally, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $63,755 (median) and $73,010 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 51st percentile ($809 weekly), while household income sits at the 35th percentile. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 31.7% of residents (5,817 people), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 33rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Seaford is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Seaford, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 73.7% houses and 26.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Seaford slightly lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 28.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (37.0%) or rented (34.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,850, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Seaford's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Seaford features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 62.9% of all households, comprising 25.3% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 3.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Seaford performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (23.7%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (26.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 93 active transport stops operating within Seaford, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 10 individual routes, collectively providing 3,331 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 224 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 90%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. A high 26.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 475 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Seaford is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Seaford faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~9,653 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.2 and 9.3% of residents, respectively, while 64.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 19.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,611 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Seaford records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Seaford was found to be roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.9% of its population being citizens, 78.9% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Seaford is Christianity, which makes up 40.4% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.4% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Seaford are English, comprising 29.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 25.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 9.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Russian is notably overrepresented at 0.6% of Seaford (vs 0.4% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%) and Dutch at 1.6% (vs 1.2%).

Seaford's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Seaford is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (10.2% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (11.9%). In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.2% to 10.4% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 5.9% to 7.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 11.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Seaford's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, growing by 445 people (35%) from 1,290 to 1,736. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 59% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.