Seaford (Vic.)
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Seaford reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Seaford Vic.'s population was around 18,083 as of Aug 2025. This reflected an increase of 868 people (5.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,215 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,072 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 294 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 1,454 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Seaford's 5.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.2%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 50.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas was expected, with the area projected to expand by 1,893 persons to 2041 based on the latest numbers, reflecting an increase of 10.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Seaford when compared nationally

Seaford has averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, showing 351 homes approved over the past five years (FY-20 to FY-25), with an additional 15 approved in FY-26 so far. Each year, around 1.6 people have moved to Seaford for each dwelling built during this period. This balance between supply and demand has maintained stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $500,000.

In the current financial year, $40.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating robust local business investment. Comparing Seaford to Greater Melbourne shows 54.0% higher new home approvals per capita, providing buyers with greater choice. The composition of new development is 39.0% standalone homes and 61.0% attached dwellings, fostering more affordable entry points and catering to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the area's existing housing stock (currently 74.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. Seaford's population growth rate is approximately 242 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area. Population forecasts project an increase of 1,882 residents by 2041, with current development trends well-suited to meet future needs and maintain steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Population forecasts indicate Seaford will gain 1,882 residents through to 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Seaford has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 such projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones include the Frankston Basketball and Gymnastics Stadium Redevelopment, Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre Upgrade and Expansion, and Frankston Line Shared Use Path Extension. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Seaford has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Seaford in Victoria has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4% over the past year as of June 2025.

In this period, 9,210 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's by 1.0%. Workforce participation is lower at 61.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Major employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 6.5% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4%, labour force by 4.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and a smaller increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year to September 2025, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Seaford's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Seaford median taxpayer income was $53,931, average $63,005, according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is slightly lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $59,383 (median) and $69,375 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes rank modestly in Seaford, between the 36th and 51st percentiles. The majority, 31.7% of residents (5,732 people), fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, mirroring regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 33rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Seaford is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census showed that in Seaford, 73.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 26.3% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Seaford was at 28.7%, similar to Melbourne's 28.4%. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 37.0%, while rented dwellings made up 34.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Seaford was $1,850, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800 but lower than the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Seaford was $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $356 and the national figure of $375.

Seaford features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.9% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Seaford performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.3% and graduate diplomas at 3.2%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (26.2%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.0% in primary, 6.5% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

There are nine schools operating within Seaford, educating approximately 2,898 students. The schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1017) with balanced educational opportunities, including seven primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Seaford has 90 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by nine distinct routes, facilitating a total of 4396 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents residing an average of 225 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 628 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Seaford is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Seaford faces significant health challenges, with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population (~9,240 people), slightly lagging that of the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.2 and 9.3% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.0% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 2021, the area has 19.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,453 people), which is higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Seaford records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Seaford's cultural diversity, as per the Census 2016 data, was largely in line with the broader regional average. The population breakdown showed that 86.9% were Australian citizens, 78.9% were born in Australia, and 89.8% spoke English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 40.4% of Seaford's population.

While Judaism was slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne (0.4% vs 0.3%), the top three ancestry groups were English (29.9%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (9.4%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Russian (0.6%) and Hungarian (0.4%) had similar representation compared to regional averages, while Dutch was slightly underrepresented at 1.6%.

Seaford's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Seaford has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Seaford has an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort (10.0% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (12.4%). Between 2021 and now, the 15-24 age group has grown from 9.2% to 10.3%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Seaford's age profile will significantly change. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 519 people (43%), from 1,216 to 1,736. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 59% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.