Langwarrin

Population growth drivers in Langwarrin are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Langwarrin's population, as of Nov 2025, is approximately 25,784. This figure reflects a growth of 845 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 24,939. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 25,747 in June 2024 and an additional 218 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 685 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Langwarrin's growth rate of 3.4% since the 2021 census exceeds the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.1%. Natural growth contributed approximately 59.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and the latest annual ERP population numbers, Langwarrin is projected to have an above median population growth, expanding by 3,803 persons to reach approximately 29,587 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Langwarrin according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Langwarrin has recorded approximately 59 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling 298 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. On average, Langwarrin gains about 2.1 new residents per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. New homes are constructed at an average cost of $508,000.

This financial year has seen $15.6 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Langwarrin records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 20th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice that supports interest in existing dwellings. This level is also below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Langwarrin's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in the area is 787 people. By 2041, projections estimate Langwarrin will add 3,766 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Langwarrin has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 29 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Langwarrin Community Centre and Early Years Project, 82 Edward Street Residential Development, 46-48 Edward Street Townhouses, and Potts Road Subdivision (68-74 Potts Road). The following list details those most relevant.

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The labour market in Langwarrin shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Langwarrin has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% as of June 2025, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth in Langwarrin over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. As of June 2025, 14,407 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.4% below Greater Melbourne's and workforce participation at 68.7%, close to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Langwarrin shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level, but lower representation in professional & technical services at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data from Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Langwarrin's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Langwarrin SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $55,643 and an average income of $65,885. These figures are slightly above the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income for Langwarrin as of September 2025 is approximately $62,409, with average income estimated at $73,897. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Langwarrin cluster around the 62nd percentile nationally. Income analysis shows that 37.0% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (9,540 residents), which is similar to the broader area where 32.8% fall into this income range. After housing costs, 85.2% of income remains for other expenses. Langwarrin's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Langwarrin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Langwarrin, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.4% houses and 16.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Langwarrin was higher than Melbourne metro at 31.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.3% and rented ones at 17.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,900, above Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Langwarrin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Langwarrin has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.0% of all households, including 37.9% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.0%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Langwarrin exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (30.3%). Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.2% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Langwarrin shows 97 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six unique routes that together facilitate 1,480 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is deemed good, with residents typically residing 363 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 211 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Langwarrin are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Langwarrin shows below-average health outcomes with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is at approximately 52% of the total population (~13,510 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues affect 9.4% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.3%. About 66.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 65.0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 17.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,442 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly similar to the general population's health profile.

Langwarrin ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Langwarrin's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 83.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 94.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Langwarrin, comprising 41.5% of people. Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (32.2%), Australian (29.3%), and Scottish (8.5%). Dutch (2.2%) and Sri Lankan (0.3%) are notably overrepresented in Langwarrin compared to regional averages, while Welsh remains consistent at 0.6%.

Langwarrin's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Langwarrin was close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years at the time of the census. It was also similar to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Langwarrin had a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (12.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.5%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 4.5% to 5.7%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25 to 34 decreased from 12.7% to 11.5%. By 2041, Langwarrin's age composition is projected to change significantly. The population aged 75 to 84 is expected to grow by 76%, reaching 2,570 people from the previous figure of 1,461. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are projected to comprise 65% of the total population increase. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for residents aged 35 to 44 and those under age 5 (0-4 cohort).