Frankston

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston's population is estimated at 39,001 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,670 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 37,331. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 38,793 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,971 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston's growth of 4.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 4.1%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation, with the suburb expected to increase by 4,749 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Frankston recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Frankston has seen around 121 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 605 homes. So far in FY-26134 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded between FY-21 and FY-25. This supply meets or surpasses demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $575,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In this financial year, $184.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston maintains similar construction rates per person, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. However, recent periods show moderated development activity. This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% medium and high-density housing, shifting from the area's existing housing composition of 74.0% houses.

The location has approximately 472 people per dwelling approval. Population forecasts indicate Frankston will gain 4,541 residents through to 2041. Development keeps pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as population expands.

Frankston has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 24 projects that may impact the region. Notable initiatives include Frankston Revitalisation Project, Bayside Mixed-Use Precinct Development, Harbour Frankston, and 35-41 Hastings Road Apartment Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Frankston are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Frankston has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 8.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9%. As of December 2025, 19,089 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 3.2%, above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was 63.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 22.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with notable concentration in health care & social assistance at 1.3 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services employed only 5.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.9%, labour force grew by 2.0%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 0.8 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 2.4%, labour force expanded by 2.8%, but unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Frankston's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Frankston had a median income among taxpayers of $51,016 and an average income of $61,926. These figures are below the national average, which stood at $57,688 across Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Frankston would be approximately $55,225 (median) and $67,035 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Frankston rank modestly, between the 27th and 37th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 32.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (12,597 residents), which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frankston, with only 80.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Frankston is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Frankston's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Frankston was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Frankston's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Frankston features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households making up 4.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Frankston performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area has university qualification rates of 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 29.1%, comprising 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston has 221 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 28 different routes that collectively facilitate 9,237 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 196 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward to other locations for work or leisure. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 89% of residents. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in Frankston, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 1,319 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, illustrating the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centrepoint.

Health performance in Frankston is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston faces substantial health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age cohorts have high prevalence of common health conditions.

Only approximately 51% (~20,027 people) of Frankston's total population has private health cover, compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (11.9%) and asthma (9.3%). Conversely, 62.2% of residents claim to be completely free of medical ailments, lower than the 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Frankston's working-age population faces significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 19.6% (7,644 people) aged 65 and over, compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally ranking in line with the broader population nationally.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Frankston was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 13.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.2% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Frankston, comprising 40.3%. While Judaism accounted for only 0.3%, it was higher compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English (29.5%) and Australian (24.9%) were significantly overrepresented compared to regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%, respectively. Irish ancestry stood at 8.4%. Notably, Russian (0.6%), Hungarian (0.4%), and Dutch (1.7%) ethnic groups were also overrepresented in Frankston compared to regional figures of 0.4%, 0.3%, and 1.2% respectively.

Frankston's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Frankston is 39 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and very close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Frankston has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.3% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (14.1%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group 35 to 44 has grown from 13.9% to 15.5%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 5.7% to 7.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 15.8% to 14.1%. Population forecasts for Frankston by 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 45%, reaching 4,015 people from the current figure of 2,769. This growth will be led by residents aged 65 and older, who are projected to represent 59% of the population growth. In contrast, the 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 age groups are expected to experience population declines.