Frankston

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Frankston's population is estimated at around 39,001, reflecting an increase of 1,670 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 37,331 in the suburb. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 38,793 as of June 2024, and an additional 447 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,971 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston's growth of 4.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.1%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future trends, Frankston is expected to increase by 4,745 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.7% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Frankston recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Frankston has seen approximately 120 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 601 homes. As of FY-26130 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is 0.9, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $579,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

In FY-26, $184.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Frankston maintains similar construction rates per person compared to Greater Melbourne, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns, though recent periods show moderated development activity. This level is below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% medium and high-density housing, representing a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 74.0% houses. The location has approximately 484 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate Frankston will gain 4,574 residents by 2041, with development keeping reasonable pace with projected growth despite increasing competition among buyers as the population expands.

Population forecasts indicate Frankston will gain 4,574 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Frankston has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 24 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Frankston Revitalisation Project, Bayside Mixed-Use Precinct Development, Harbour Frankston, and 35-41 Hastings Road Apartment Development. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Frankston are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Frankston has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 7.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8%. As of September 2025, 19,028 residents were in work, and the unemployment rate was 2.9%, above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was at 63.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 22.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance employment levels are at 1.3 times the regional average, while professional & technical employs only 5.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population counts. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, and labour force increased by 2.8%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and labour force expand by 3.3%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Frankston. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Frankston's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, noting this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Frankston had a median income among taxpayers of $51,016 and an average income of $61,926. These figures are below the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Frankston would be approximately $55,225 (median) and $67,035 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Frankston rank modestly, between the 27th and 37th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 32.3% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (12,597 residents), which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frankston, with only 80.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Frankston is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Frankston's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston was 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Frankston was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Frankston's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Frankston features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households making up 4.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Frankston performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 29.1%, with 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston has 221 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 28 different routes that together facilitate 9,237 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 196 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Most residents commute outward due to Frankston being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 89% of residents. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 1,319 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Frankston is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of Frankston's total population (~20,027 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.9% and 9.3% of residents respectively. However, 62.2% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, lower than the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Frankston has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Frankston was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 13.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.2% born overseas. Christianity was the main religion in Frankston, comprising 40.3%. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.3% of Frankston's population versus 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English (29.5%) and Australian (24.9%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%, respectively. Irish ancestry was also notable at 8.4%. Other ethnic groups with notable divergences included Russian (0.6% vs regional 0.4%), Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.3%), and Dutch (1.7% vs regional 1.2%).

Frankston's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Frankston is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, the cohort aged 65-74 is notably over-represented at 10.2% locally, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 14.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the age group of 35 to 44 has grown from 13.9% to 15.4%, and the cohort of 75 to 84 has increased from 5.7% to 7.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 15.8% to 14.0%. Population forecasts for Frankston by 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The cohort aged 75 to 84 is expected to grow by 46%, reaching 3,981 people from the current figure of 2,730. This growth will be led by residents aged 65 and older who represent 58% of anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, the cohorts aged 25-34 and 35-44 are expected to experience population declines.