Frankston

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 38,779 people. This reflects an increase of 1,448 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 37,331. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 38,782, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 442 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,960 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston's growth of 3.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 3.1%, making it a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the suburb is expected to increase by 4,741 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 12.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Frankston recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Frankston has received around 120 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 604 homes. As of FY-26, 30 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 new residents are associated with each dwelling constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting population growth projections.

The average construction value for these dwellings is $579,000, indicating a focus on quality construction. In this financial year, $133.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Frankston's construction rates per person are similar to Greater Melbourne but below the national average, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 30% standalone homes and 70% medium to high-density housing, shifting from the area's existing 74% houses. This trend provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. With approximately 493 people per dwelling approval, Frankston has an established population.

By 2041, the AreaSearch quarterly estimate forecasts a gain of 4,795 residents. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Frankston has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 24 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Frankston Revitalisation Project, Frankston Hospital Redevelopment, Bayside Mixed-Use Precinct Development, and Harbour Frankston. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Frankston are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Frankston has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 8.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4%.

As of June 2025, 18,796 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's at 3.7%. Workforce participation lags behind Greater Melbourne's rate at 58.7%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with notable concentration in health care. However, professional & technical services employ only 5.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, with an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that Frankston's employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, following national trends.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Frankston had a median income among taxpayers of $51,020 and an average income of $61,930. Both figures are below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes for Frankston as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,224 and $69,461 respectively. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Frankston rank modestly, between the 27th and 37th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 32.3% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (12,525 residents), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frankston, with only 80.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Frankston is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Frankston's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 73.9% houses and 26.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented dwellings at 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Frankston was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Frankston features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Frankston performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (15.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 29.1%, comprising primary education (9.3%), secondary education (7.0%), and tertiary education (5.0%).

There are 23 schools serving 7,537 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1003) and balanced educational opportunities. The schools include 10 primaries, 11 secondaries, and 2 K-12s. School capacity exceeds residential needs (19.4 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 14.8), indicating the area serves as an educational hub for the broader region. Note: schools with 'n/a' enrolments should refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston's public transport analysis shows 219 active transport stops in operation. These consist of a mix of train and bus services. The system is served by 27 individual routes, collectively facilitating 13,271 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 196 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,895 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 60 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 51% (~19,913 people) of Frankston's total population has private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues affect 11.9% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.3%. Conversely, 62.2% report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.0% in Greater Melbourne. Frankston has 18.8% (7,290 people) of residents aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly inline with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Frankston was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston's cultural diversity is above average, with 13.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.2% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Frankston, comprising 40.3%. Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.3% vs 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.5%), Australian (24.9%), and Irish (8.4%). Notably, Russian (0.6%) and Dutch (1.7%) are slightly overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

Frankston's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Frankston is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.0% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (14.6%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group 35-44 has grown from 13.9% to 15.3%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 15.8% to 14.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Frankston, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 53% (an increase of 1,382 people), reaching a total of 3,981 from its current figure of 2,598. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 59% of the population growth, while the age groups 0-4 and 5-14 are expected to experience population declines.