Frankston

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at approximately 38,962 people. This figure reflects a growth of 1,631 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 37,331 in Frankston (SA2). The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 38,793 residents, based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 442 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,969 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston's growth rate of 4.4% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA4 region (4.0%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, the Frankston statistical area (Lv2) is expected to increase its population by approximately 4,739 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 11.8% over the 17-year period. This projection indicates a demographic shift just below the median of statistical areas across the nation.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Frankston recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Frankston has received around 120 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 601 homes. As of FY-26130 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were noted between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value of new properties is $579,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. Commercial approvals registered in this financial year amount to $184.7 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Frankston's construction rates per person are similar to Greater Melbourne's, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. However, recent periods have seen some moderation in development activity, which is below the national average due to the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the existing housing stock (currently 74.0% houses). This change may indicate decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects evolving lifestyles and the need for diverse, affordable housing options.

The area has approximately 484 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established population. Population forecasts suggest Frankston will gain 4,610 residents by 2041. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers may result as the population expands.

Frankston has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 24 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are the Frankston Revitalisation Project, Bayside Mixed-Use Precinct Development, Harbour Frankston, and the 35-41 Hastings Road Apartment Development. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

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Employment drivers in Frankston are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Frankston has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 7.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8%.

As of September 2025, 19,032 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lags at 58.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with healthcare employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Professional & technical services employ only 5.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, and labour force increased by 2.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 7.5%. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment grew by 3.0% and unemployment rose slightly to 5.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Frankston's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2023, Frankston had a median taxpayer income of $51,016 and an average income of $61,926. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes in Frankston as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,225 and $67,035 respectively. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Frankston rank modestly, between the 27th and 37th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment consists of 32.3% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (12,584 residents), similar to regional trends with 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Frankston is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Frankston's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent in Frankston was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Frankston features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Frankston performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 29.1%, with 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston has 220 active public transport stops operating, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 28 different routes that together facilitate 9,237 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 196 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 1,319 trips per day, translating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence rates for common health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 51% of Frankston's total population (~20,006 people). Mental health issues are the most prevalent condition, affecting 11.9% of residents. Asthma impacts 9.3%. Conversely, 62.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 65.0% in Greater Melbourne. Frankston has an older population, with 18.8% aged 65 and over (7,324 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Frankston was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston's population showed cultural diversity with 13.0% speaking a language other than English at home, and 24.2% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion at 40.3%. Judaism, at 0.3%, was proportionally similar to Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.5%), Australian (24.9%), and Irish (8.4%). Notable differences included Russian (0.6% vs regional 0.5%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.4%), and Dutch (1.7% vs 1.8%) representations in Frankston.

Frankston's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Frankston is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.0% locally vs. 8.2% in Greater Melbourne) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (14.6% vs. 19.0%). According to the 2021 Census, Frankston's population aged 35-44 grew from 13.9% to 15.3%, while the 25-34 age group declined from 15.8% to 14.6%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecasted for Frankston. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 53%, reaching 3,981 people from the current 2,610. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 60% of this growth, while the 35-44 and 5-14 age groups are expected to experience population declines.