Frankston

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston's population is estimated at 39,074 as of May 2026. This reflects a growth from 37,331 people recorded in the 2021 Census, marking an increase of 1,743 people (4.7%). This estimation is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses since the Census date and their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025. The resident population estimate used was 39,004. Frankston's growth rate exceeds that of its SA4 region (3.2%) and SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch projects Frankston's population to increase by 4,442 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.2%. This growth is expected to be just below the median for statistical areas across the nation.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Frankston recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Frankston has seen approximately 121 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 605 homes. As of FY-26374 approvals have been recorded. On average, each new dwelling accommodates about 0.9 new residents annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more housing options and facilitating population growth.

The average construction value of new properties is $575,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY-26, commercial approvals have reached $184.7 million, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston maintains similar construction rates per capita, preserving market balance with the broader area. However, building activity has slowed in recent years and is below the national average, suggesting an established area potentially facing planning limitations. Currently, 31.0% of new dwellings are standalone homes, while 69.0% are attached dwellings. This shift from the current housing mix (74.0% houses) reflects reduced development site availability and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability needs.

Frankston has approximately 472 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Frankston is projected to grow by 4,372 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with these growth projections, although increased competition among buyers can be expected as the population grows.

Frankston has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 24 such projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Frankston Revitalisation Project, Bayside Mixed-Use Precinct Development, Harbour Frankston, and 35-41 Hastings Road Apartment Development. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Frankston faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Frankston has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 8.0% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.9%. As of December 2025, there were 19,078 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.2%, which is above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Frankston was 63.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 22.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.5% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on the count of Census working population to local population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 2.9% alongside labour force increasing by 2.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Frankston's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Frankston suburb's income level is below national average per latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers in Frankston is $51,016, with average income at $61,926. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Frankston are approximately $55,924 (median) and $67,883 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Frankston rank modestly between the 27th and 37th percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 32.3% of residents (12,620 people), similar to metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frankston, with only 80.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Frankston is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Frankston, as per the latest Census evaluation, 73.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 26.5% comprising semi-detached units, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's dwelling structure, which was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Frankston was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Frankston was recorded at $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Frankston's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Frankston features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Frankston performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 29.1%, with 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston has 221 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 28 different routes, providing a total of 9,237 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 196 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Most residents commute outwards, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 89%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 1,319 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Frankston is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of Frankston's total population (~20,064 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. Mental health issues impact 11.9% of residents, while asthma affects 9.3%. Conversely, 62.2% claim to be free from medical ailments, lower than the 72.6% reported across Greater Melbourne. Working-age adults face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Frankston has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.0%, with 7,424 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the overall population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Frankston was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston's cultural diversity was above average, with 13.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 24.2% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Frankston, comprising 40.3%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.5%), Australian (24.9%), and Irish (8.4%), each substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, respectively. Notably, Russian (0.6% vs 0.4%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), and Dutch (1.7% vs 1.2%) were also overrepresented in Frankston compared to regional figures.

Frankston's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Frankston is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston has a notably higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (9.9% locally) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.5%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 13.9% to 15.5%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 5.7% to 6.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 15.8% to 14.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Frankston, with the 75 to 84 group expected to grow by 44%, reaching 3,880 people from 2,696. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 58% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 cohorts are forecasted to experience population declines.