Mornington - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Mornington - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Mornington - East's population is approximately 15,133, a decrease of 42 people since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 15,175. This decline was inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. The population density stands at around 1,030 persons per square kilometer. While Mornington - East saw a 0.3% decrease since the census, the SA3 area experienced a 2.3% growth, indicating differing trends. Overseas migration drove population growth in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, based on the latest population numbers, Mornington - East is expected to grow by approximately 1,695 persons, representing an increase of about 11.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - East has seen approximately 33 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 165 homes were approved, with another 12 approved so far in FY-26. The average construction value of these new properties is $400,000.

In terms of commercial development, $3.9 million worth of approvals have been recorded this financial year. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has significantly less development activity, 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. New building activity shows a mix of housing types: 61.0% detached houses and 39.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift from the area's current housing composition (87.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 451 people per dwelling approval, Mornington - East demonstrates a developed market.

Future population growth forecasts indicate an increase of 1,673 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mornington - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Community Animal Shelter Redevelopment, Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Fishermans Jetty Rebuild Project, and Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Mornington - East maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mornington - East has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% as of June 2025, which is 0.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 3.6%. As of June 2025, 7,162 residents were employed while workforce participation lagged behind Greater Melbourne at 56.4%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force grew by 4.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population ratios.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Mornington - East had a median income of $47,615 and an average income of $68,177. Nationally, the median was $47,615 and the average was $68,177. Greater Melbourne's figures were higher at $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average). By September 2025, estimates suggest Mornington - East's median income could be approximately $53,405 and the average around $76,467, based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data indicates incomes in Mornington - East rank modestly, between the 30th and 36th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The $1,500-$2,999 earnings band captures 29.7% of individuals (4,494), similar to Melbourne's metropolitan region at 32.8%. Income remaining after housing costs ranks at the 34th percentile with only 81.8% left. Mornington - East's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mornington - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Mornington - East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington - East was 38.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.7% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, above Melbourne metro's $1,989. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Mornington - East's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Mornington - East has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.7% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mornington - East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates at 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 14.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (25.8%). Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (9.6%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (3.2%). The area has five schools with a combined enrollment of 3,839 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1024) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. The area serves as an education hub, offering 25.4 school places per 100 residents, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 14.3, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that there are 50 active public transport stops in Mornington - East. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 1,121 weekly passenger trips provided by four individual routes. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located 315 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 160 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington - East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington - East faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 54% (~8,126 people) of Mornington - East residents have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.3%) and mental health issues (9.1%). About 62.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. Mornington - East has 26.4% (3,987 people) of its population aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with the general population's health profile.

Mornington - East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-East was found to have a low level of cultural diversity, with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.3% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mornington-East, accounting for 48.4% of the population. Judaism, however, is slightly overrepresented in Mornington-East compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.2% of the population identifying as Jewish.

The top three ancestry groups in Mornington-East are English (32.9%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (8.8%). Notably, Dutch, Scottish, and Maltese ethnicities are slightly overrepresented in Mornington-East compared to regional averages: Dutch at 1.7% vs 1.8%, Scottish at 8.7% vs 9.0%, and Maltese at 0.6% vs 0.4%.

Mornington - East hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Mornington - East is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (11.1%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.6%). This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of Mornington - East's population in the 15-24 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.6%, while the 55-64 age cohort has increased from 10.5% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 8.8% to 7.6%, and the 65-74 age group has dropped from 11.0% to 9.9%. Looking ahead to the year 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Mornington - East's age structure. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 109%, reaching 1,679 people from 802, leading the demographic shift. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.