Mornington - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Mornington - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mornington - East's population is around 15,130 as of Aug 2025. This reflects a decrease of 45 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,175. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,128 as of June 2024 and an additional 64 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,030 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. While Mornington - East experienced a 0.3% decline since census, the SA3 area achieved 2.3% growth, indicating divergent trends. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 1,695 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 11.1% over the period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - East has seen approximately 33 new homes approved annually. Development approval data from the ABS is produced on a financial year basis: 165 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, with four already approved in FY26. The population has declined recently, yet development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, benefiting buyers while new properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $524,000. This year, $3.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has significantly less development activity, 59.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This activity is also lower than the national average, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity comprises 61.0% detached houses and 39.0% medium and high-density housing, expanding the range of medium-density options to cater to various price brackets from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 87.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles' need for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 451 people per dwelling approval, Mornington - East shows a developed market. Population forecasts indicate that Mornington - East will gain 1,676 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mornington - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to impact the area. Notable ones are Community Animal Shelter Redevelopment, Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Fishermans Jetty Rebuild Project, and Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Mornington - East maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mornington - East has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.8%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

In June 2025, there were 7,162 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 3.8%, 0.8% lower than the regional average. The workforce participation rate is 56.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.6 times higher than the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, while labour force grew by 4.7%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% over the same period. As of Sep-25, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Mornington - East had median income of $47,615 and average income of $68,177. This is higher than national averages of $43,909 (median) and $64,766 (average). Greater Melbourne's figures were $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average). Assuming a 10.11% increase since FY2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be around $52,429 (median) and $75,070 (average). In Census 2021 data, Mornington - East's income rankings were between the 30th and 36th percentiles. The $1,500-$2,999 income bracket covered 29.7% of residents (4,493 individuals), similar to Melbourne's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Mornington - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Mornington - East, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington - East stood at 38.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.7% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,989. Weekly rent was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Mornington - East's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Mornington - East has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.7% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mornington - East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 21.1%, substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (25.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education. Mornington - East's schools have a combined enrollment reaching 3,839 students while the area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1024) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. The area functions as an education hub with 25.4 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 14.3 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 50 active stops operating in Mornington - East, all bus routes. These are serviced by four individual routes, offering 1,121 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 315 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 160 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mornington - East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington - East faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 54% (~8,124 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.3%) and mental health issues (9.1%), with 62.1% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 63.9%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 26.4% (3,986 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Mornington - East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-East was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.3% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mornington-East, comprising 48.4% of its population. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented in Mornington-East, making up 0.2% compared to the regional average of 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups in Mornington-East are English (32.9%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (8.8%). There are also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Dutch are overrepresented at 1.7% compared to 1.8% regionally, Scottish at 8.7% versus 9.0%, and Maltese at 0.6% versus 0.4%.

Mornington - East hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Mornington - East is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (11.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.6%). This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 10.9% to 12.6%, while the 55-64 cohort has increased from 10.5% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 8.8% to 7.6%, and the 65-74 age group has decreased from 11.0% to 9.9%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Mornington - East's age structure. Notably, the 85+ age group is projected to grow by 109%, reaching 1,679 people from 801. The combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.