Mornington - East

Mornington - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mornington - East's population is around 15,131 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 44 people (0.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,175 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,111 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,030 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,695 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 11.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - East has seen approximately 33 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 165 homes were approved, with an additional 12 approved so far in FY26. The average construction value of these properties is $400,000.

In terms of commercial development, $3.9 million worth of approvals have been recorded this financial year. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has significantly less development activity, 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Similarly, when compared nationally, Mornington - East's development activity is lower, indicating a mature market with possible development constraints. The new building activity shows 61.0% detached houses and 39.0% medium to high-density housing, offering a mix of price brackets from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This shift reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring diverse housing options.

With around 451 people per dwelling approval, Mornington - East shows a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain 1,675 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mornington - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. Seven AreaSearch-identified projects are expected to influence the region. Notable projects include Community Animal Shelter Redevelopment, Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and Woodbyne Estate. The following details projects likely to have the greatest relevance.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Mornington - East maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mornington - East has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%.

As of September 2025, 7,147 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's. Workforce participation is lower at 58.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A moderate 22.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.4%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.7% while labour force grew by 2.7%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Mornington - East's employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Mornington - East SA2 has a median income of $50,064 and an average income of $69,176. This is slightly above the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Mornington - East as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,194 (median) and $74,883 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Mornington - East rank modestly, between the 30th and 36th percentiles. Income brackets show that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.7% of the community (4,493 individuals), which is similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mornington - East, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mornington - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mornington - East, as recorded in the latest Census, 86.6% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 13.4% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types of dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's composition of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington - East stood at 38.1%, with mortgaged properties making up 42.7% and rented dwellings accounting for 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, matching Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent figure was $400 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Mornington - East's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $400 against the national figure of $375.

Mornington - East has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.7% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Mornington - East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 12.4% and certificates for 25.8%. Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Mornington - East shows that there are 49 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 668 weekly passenger trips provided by the collective service of four individual routes. The accessibility of transport in this area is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 315 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting patterns show residents traveling outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation for these residents at 94%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles owned per dwelling in this area.

According to the 2021 Census data, which may reflect conditions influenced by COVID-19, approximately 22.8% of residents work from home. The service frequency averages 95 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington - East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Mornington - East faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover is at approximately 53% of the total population (~8,064 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.3 and 9.1% of residents respectively. However, 62.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.0%, with 4,088 people falling into this category, compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Mornington - East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-East was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.3% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Mornington-East is Christianity, comprising 48.4% of the population. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented, making up 0.2% compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Mornington-East are English at 32.9%, Australian at 27.9%, and Irish at 8.8%. These figures are substantially higher than the regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and 5.6% respectively. Additionally, Dutch ancestry is overrepresented at 1.7%, Scottish at 8.7%, and Maltese at 0.6%, compared to regional averages of 1.2%, 5.6%, and 1.1% respectively.

Mornington - East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Mornington - East is 45 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (11.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.4%). The concentration of 75-84 year-olds in Mornington - East is well above the national average of 6.1%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 10.9% to 12.7%, while the 55-64 age group increased from 10.5% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 8.8% to 7.4%, and the 45-54 age group dropped from 14.4% to 13.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Mornington - East's age structure. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 97%, reaching 1,679 people from the current 850. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 78% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.