Mornington - East

Mornington - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mornington - East's population is around 15,133 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 42 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,175 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,123 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,030 persons per square kilometer. While Mornington - East experienced a 0.3% decline since the census, the SA3 area achieved 2.3% growth, highlighting divergent population trends. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 1,695 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 11.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - East has seen approximately 33 new homes approved annually. Between FY21 and FY25, around 165 homes were approved, with another 12 approved so far in FY26. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply may be meeting demand, offering buyers good choice.

New properties are constructed at an average cost of $400,000. This year, $3.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has significantly less development activity (59.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This activity is also lower than the national average, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity comprises 61.0% detached houses and 39.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an expanding range of medium-density options across price brackets. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 87.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles.

With around 451 people per dwelling approval, Mornington - East shows a developed market. Population forecasts indicate that Mornington - East will gain approximately 1,673 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mornington - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to influence the region. Key initiatives include Community Animal Shelter Redevelopment, Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and Woodbyne Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Mornington - East maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mornington - East has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. As of September 2025, there are 7,147 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's. Workforce participation is 56.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.4% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, while labour force and unemployment remained essentially unchanged. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, with a slight increase in unemployment. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Mornington - East SA2 was $47,615 and average income was $68,177. In Greater Melbourne, median income was $54,892 and average income was $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $53,405 (median) and $76,467 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Mornington - East between the 30th and 36th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The $1,500-2,999 earnings band captures 29.7% of the community (4,494 individuals), similar to the metropolitan region at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 81.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mornington - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Mornington - East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington - East stood at 38.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.7% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. The median weekly rent figure in Mornington - East was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Mornington - East's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Mornington - East has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.7% of all households, consisting of 31.4% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mornington - East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (25.8%). Educational participation is high at 27.1%, with 9.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mornington - East has 50 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 1,121 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in the area is rated as good, with residents on average being located 315 meters from their nearest transport stop.

The service frequency across all routes averages 160 trips per day, which translates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington - East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington - East faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 54% (~8,126 people) of Mornington - East's total population has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.3% of residents) and mental health issues (9.1%). Conversely, 62.1% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. Mornington - East has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 26.4% (3,987 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. The health outcomes among seniors are broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Mornington - East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-East was found to have low cultural diversity, with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.3% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mornington-East, comprising 48.4% of the population. Judaism is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.2% versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (32.9%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (8.8%). Notably, Dutch ancestry is slightly overrepresented at 1.7%, Scottish at 8.7%, and Maltese at 0.6%.

Mornington - East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Mornington - East is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (11.1%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.6%). This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 grew from 10.9% to 12.6%, while those aged 55-64 increased from 10.5% to 11.5%. Conversely, the population aged 25-34 decreased from 8.8% to 7.6%, and those aged 65-74 dropped from 11.0% to 9.9%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Mornington - East's age structure. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 109%, reaching 1,679 people from the current 802. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.