Mornington - East

Mornington - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Mornington - East's population was 15,092 as of May 2026, a decrease of 83 people from the 2021 Census figure of 15,175. This decline is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data and validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density in Mornington - East was 1,027 persons per square kilometer as of May 2026. While Mornington - East experienced a 0.5% population decrease since the census, the broader SA3 area grew by 2.0%. Overseas migration primarily drove this growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Mornington - East is expected to grow by 1,569 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 10.3% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - East has seen approximately 33 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 165 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved so far in FY26. The average construction cost of these properties is $400,000.

This year alone, $3.9 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has significantly less development activity, 58.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, this activity is also lower, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. Of the new building activity, 61.0% are detached houses, with 39.0% being medium and high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 87.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 451 people per dwelling approval, Mornington - East shows a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain 1,559 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mornington - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are Community Animal Shelter Redevelopment, Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and Woodbyne Estate. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Mornington - East maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mornington - East has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.8% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.4%.

As of that date, 7,180 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Mornington - East was 59.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 22.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.4%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force grew by 2.1%, leading to a unemployment rate decrease of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Mornington - East SA2 is $50,064 and average income is $69,176. In Greater Melbourne, median income is $57,688 and average income is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 are approximately $54,880 (median) and $75,831 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Mornington - East between the 30th to 36th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income brackets indicate that 29.7% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, aligning with metropolitan region's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mornington - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census showed that in Mornington - East, 86.6% of dwellings were houses while 13.4% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasted with Melbourne's metro area where 67.9% were houses and 32.1% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington - East stood at 38.1%, with mortgaged properties at 42.7% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne's metro average. However, the median weekly rent was $400 compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Mornington - East's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Mornington - East has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.7% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Mornington - East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 25.8%. Educational participation is high, with 27.1% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 49 active public transport stops in Mornington - East. These are served by four different routes, offering a total of 668 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 315 meters, indicating good accessibility. Primarily residential, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the dominant mode at 94%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.4 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 22.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 95 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mornington - East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Mornington - East faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover is at 53% of the total population (~8,044 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.3%) and mental health issues (9.1%). Only 62.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.9% (3,910 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Mornington - East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-East was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.3% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Mornington-East is Christianity, comprising 48.4% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.2% compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups in Mornington-East are English (32.9%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (8.8%), all higher than regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and 5.6% respectively. Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Dutch at 1.7% (vs 1.2% regionally), Scottish at 8.7% (vs 5.6%), and Maltese at 0.6% (vs 1.1%).

Mornington - East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Mornington - East is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (11.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.5%). As per the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 10.9% to 13.2%, while the 55-64 age group rose from 10.5% to 11.9%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group decreased from 8.8% to 7.5%, and the 65-74 age group fell from 11.0% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Mornington - East's age structure. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 97%, reaching 1,548 people from 784. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 77% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.