Mornington - East

Mornington - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mornington - East's population is around 15,131 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 44 people (0.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,175 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,111 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,030 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,695 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 11.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - East has seen around 33 new homes approved each year, with 165 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 12 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $400,000. Additionally, $3.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has significantly less development activity (59.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New building activity shows 61.0% detached houses and 39.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 87.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 451 people per dwelling approval, Mornington - East shows a developed market.

Population forecasts indicate Mornington - East will gain 1,675 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mornington - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 7 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Community Animal Shelter Redevelopment, Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and Woodbyne Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Mornington - East maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mornington - East features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.8%, and 2.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,180 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 22.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.4% versus the regional average of 10.1%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while the labour force increased by 2.1%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Mornington - East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mornington - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Mornington - East SA2 is slightly above average nationally, with the median assessed at $50,064 while the average income stands at $69,176. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,194 (median) and $74,883 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Mornington - East, between the 30th and 36th percentiles. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.7% of the community (4,493 individuals), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mornington - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Mornington - East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Mornington - East was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 38.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (42.7%) or rented (19.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Melbourne metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Mornington - East's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Mornington - East has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.7% of all households, comprising 31.4% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Mornington - East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (21.1%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (25.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 49 active transport stops operating within Mornington - East comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 668 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 315 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. Some 22.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 95 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington - East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Mornington - East faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~8,064 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.3 and 9.1% of residents, respectively, while 62.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 27.0% of residents aged 65 and over (4,088 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Mornington - East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington - East was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.3% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Mornington - East is Christianity, which makes up 48.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.2% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Mornington - East are English, comprising 32.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 27.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 8.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 1.7% of Mornington - East (vs 1.2% regionally), Scottish at 8.7% (vs 5.6%), and Maltese at 0.6% (vs 1.1%).

Mornington - East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The 45-year median age in Mornington - East is significantly above Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - East has a higher concentration of 75 - 84 residents (11.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (7.4%). This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Following the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.7% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 10.5% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 8.8% to 7.4% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.4% to 13.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Mornington - East's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 97% (828 people), reaching 1,679 from 850. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 78% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups will see reduced numbers.