Mornington - West

Population growth drivers in Mornington - West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Mornington - West's population, as of May 2026, is around 10,904 people. This figure reflects a growth of 323 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,581. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: 10,900 in June 2025 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 1,703 persons per square kilometer, higher than average national levels assessed by AreaSearch. Mornington - West's growth rate of 3.1% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area's 2.0%, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 15.7% based on latest annual ERP population numbers, adding approximately 1,720 persons.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mornington - West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mornington-West has seen approximately 63 new home approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 315 homes. As of FY26, there have been 37 approvals recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded between FY21 and FY25. This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value of these homes was $586,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, $13.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington-West shows moderately higher new home approvals, around 13.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New developments consist of 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a focus on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 66.0% houses. Mornington-West has around 231 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Mornington-West is projected to add 1,716 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Mornington - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones are Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal, and Woodbyne Estate. The following details the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Mornington - West demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - West has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%.

As of December 2025, 5,009 residents were employed while workforce participation was 52.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A high proportion, 31.3% of residents worked from home based on Census responses, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area has a specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing employs just 2.6% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%.

The ratio of 0.6 workers per resident indicates above-average local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, labour force by 2.3%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mornington - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Mornington - West SA2 has an above average national income. The median income is $55,000 and the average income stands at $75,997. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 would be approximately $60,291 (median) and $83,308 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, personal income ranks at the 44th percentile ($780 weekly), while household income sits at the 27th percentile. The distribution shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 25.9% of residents (2,824 people). This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 27th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Mornington - West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Mornington-West, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.5% houses and 34.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington-West stood at 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.0% and rented dwellings at 26.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Mornington-West's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Mornington - West features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.9% of all households, including 17.2% that are couples with children, 35.6% that are couples without children, and 9.5% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 35.5% and group households comprising 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Mornington - West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate of 30.7%, higher than the SA4 region average of 23.5%, indicates a strong emphasis on higher education among residents aged 15+. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (15.0%) and certificates (21.1%).

A significant 22.1% of the population is currently engaged in formal education. This includes primary education (6.9%), secondary education (6.3%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mornington - West has 69 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four routes that together facilitate 926 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 201 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 92%, while 4% walk. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 31.3%, work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 132 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Mornington - West is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mornington-West demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population, around 6,171 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.1% of residents) and mental health issues (7.7%). A total of 61.3% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 42.9% of residents aged 65 and over, around 4,676 people, which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Mornington - West ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-West has a below-average level of cultural diversity, with 76.6% of its population born in Australia and 88.2% being citizens. English is spoken as the only language at home by 94.4% of residents. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 50.8% of the population.

However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.3% versus 1.0%. The top three ancestry groups are English (34.6%), Australian (24.7%), and Irish (10.6%), all higher than regional averages. Other notable divergences include Scottish at 10.2%, Welsh at 0.9%, and Dutch at 1.8%, each overrepresented compared to regional figures.

Mornington - West ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Mornington - West is 58 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the cohort aged 75-84 is notably over-represented in Mornington - West at 17.9%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 6.2%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of the population in the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 13.8% to 17.9%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.7% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Mornington - West, with the 85+ cohort projected to grow by 122%, adding 876 residents to reach a total of 1,593. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 92% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.