Mornington - West

Population growth drivers in Mornington - West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

AreaSearch's analysis indicates Mornington - West's population is approximately 10,879 as of February 2026. This represents an increase of 298 people, a 2.8% rise from the 2021 Census figure of 10,581. The change is inferred from ABS' June 2024 estimated resident population of 10,843 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,699 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Mornington - West has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outperforming the SA3 area. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth, contributing approximately 54.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting with a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 1,861 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 16.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mornington - West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mornington-West has seen approximately 63 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 315 homes. As of FY26, 24 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were registered between FY21 and FY25. This suggests supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and potential for population growth above projections.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $586,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Commercial development approvals totalling $13.7 million have been recorded in FY26, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in Mornington-West compared to Greater Melbourne. The area shows moderately higher new home approvals, at 13.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, while preserving reasonable buyer options and sustaining existing property demand. New development consists of 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% attached dwellings, a shift from the current housing mix of 66.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

With around 231 people per dwelling approval, Mornington-West is characterised as a low density area. Future projections estimate Mornington-West to add 1,825 residents by 2041 (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Mornington - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal, and Woodbyne Estate. The following list outlines those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Mornington - West demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington-West has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%.

As of September 2025, 4,978 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% and workforce participation at 51.8%. A high proportion of residents, 31.3%, work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Health care & social assistance employs 1.2 times the regional average, while transport, postal & warehousing employs only 2.6% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%.

The ratio of workers to residents is 0.6, indicating ample employment opportunities locally. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, labour force grew by 3.0%, leading to a slight decrease in unemployment (0.1 percentage points). In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% but an increase in unemployment (0.3 percentage points) over the same period. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington-West's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.9% in five years and 14.1% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Mornington - West SA2 has an above average national income. The median income is $55,000 and the average income stands at $75,997. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Mornington - West SA2 would be approximately $59,538 (median) and $82,267 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows personal income ranks at the 44th percentile ($780 weekly), while household income sits at the 27th percentile. Distribution data shows that 25.9% of residents (2,817 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, which is similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mornington - West SA2, with only 83.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 27th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Mornington - West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mornington - West, as per the latest Census evaluation, 65.5% of dwellings were houses while 34.5% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington - West stood at 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.0% and rented ones at 26.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, surpassing Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent median figure for Mornington - West was $410, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Mornington - West's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,100 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $410 against the national figure of $375.

Mornington - West features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.9% of all households, including 17.2% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 35.5% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Mornington - West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.7%, higher than the SA4 region average of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 15.0% and certificates at 21.1%.

In total, 22.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education. This includes 6.9% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 69 active transport stops operating within Mornington - West. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with 4 individual routes providing a total of 926 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 201 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transport is car at 92%, with 4% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 31.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 132 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Mornington - West is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mornington-West demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~6,157 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.1 and 7.7% of residents respectively. Sixty-one point three percent of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 43.4% of residents aged 65 and over (4,725 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Mornington - West ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-West was found to have low cultural diversity, with 76.6% of its population born in Australia, 88.2% being citizens, and 94.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 50.8% of Mornington-West's population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (34.6%), Australian (24.7%), and Irish (10.6%). Other notable divergences include Scottish at 10.2% (regional average: 5.6%), Welsh at 0.9% (regional average: 0.4%), and Dutch at 1.8% (regional average: 1.2%).

Mornington - West ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Mornington-West is 58 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and the national norm of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Mornington-West at 18.4%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 5.5%. The concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 13.8% to 18.4%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 5.6% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 7.2% to 5.5%, and the 45 to 54 age group dropped from 11.7% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Mornington-West, with the 85+ cohort projected to grow by 124%, adding 910 residents to reach 1,647. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 91% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to decrease in number.