Mornington - West
Statistical Area - sa2

Mornington - West lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mornington-West's population is around 10,845 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 264 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,581 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,843 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,694 persons per square kilometer. Mornington-West's growth rate of 2.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area average of 2.3%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 54.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest population numbers, an above median population growth is projected for the area, with an expected increase of 1,861 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 17.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mornington - West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mornington - West has seen approximately 63 new homes approved annually. Development approval data from the ABS is on a financial year basis: 315 approvals in total across the past five years, from FY21 to FY25, with 19 recorded so far in FY26. Over these five years, an average of 0.6 new residents arrived per new home, indicating that supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $878,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $13.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington - West shows moderately higher new home approvals, 13.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. Recent construction comprises 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 66.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 231 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a low-density market.

Population forecasts indicate Mornington - West will gain 1,859 residents by 2041. Existing development levels seem aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Mornington - West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Mornington Fishermans Jetty Rebuild Project, and Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Mornington - West demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington-West has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.5% and it experienced a 4.2% employment growth in the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 4,966 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation is 48.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Health care & social assistance has a particularly strong presence with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 2.6%, compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

The ratio of workers to residents is 0.6, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.2% while labour force increased by 4.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded similar trends with employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington-West's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Mornington-West has a high national income level according to AreaSearch data from the ATO for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers is $52,310 and the average income stands at $74,899. This compares to Greater Melbourne's figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of March 2025 would be approximately $57,599 (median) and $82,471 (average). Census data shows personal income ranks at the 45th percentile ($780 weekly), while household income sits at the 28th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 25.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually. This aligns with broader trends across the metropolitan region where 32.8% fall into this category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 28th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Mornington - West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mornington-West's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.5% houses and 34.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington-West was at 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.0% and rented ones at 26.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Mornington-West's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Mornington - West features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.9% of all households, including 17.2% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 35.5% and group households making up 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Mornington - West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.7% for residents aged 15+, exceeding the SA4 region average of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 15.0% and certificates at 21.1%.

A total of 22.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 6.9% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education. The four schools in Mornington - West have a combined enrollment of 1,350 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1035) offering balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is split between one primary and three secondary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Mornington - West shows that there are currently 69 active transport stops operating in the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 4 individual routes providing service to the region. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 1,557.

The report rates transport accessibility as good, with residents on average located just 201 meters away from their nearest transport stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages out to 222 trips per day, which translates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington - West is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington - West faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 57%, covering around 6,192 people. The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (affecting 12.1% of residents) and mental health concerns (7.7%). Conversely, 61.3% report being free from medical conditions, compared to Greater Melbourne's 63.9%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 42.1% (4,561 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Mornington - West are notably strong, outperforming the general population in various health metrics.

Mornington - West ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-West had a cultural diversity score below average, with 76.6% of its population born in Australia, 88.2% being citizens, and 94.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Mornington-West, accounting for 50.8% of the population there. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.3% versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (34.6%), Australian (24.7%), and Irish (10.6%). Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented at 10.2%, Welsh at 0.9%, and Dutch at 1.8%.

Mornington - West ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Mornington - West's median age is 57 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Mornington-West at 17.5%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 5.8%. This 75-84 concentration is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 13.8% to 17.5% of Mornington-West's population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age cohort has declined from 7.2% to 5.8%, and the 65 to 74 age group has dropped from 19.3% to 18.2%. By 2041, Mornington-West is projected to see significant shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ age group is expected to grow by 139%, increasing from 688 people to 1,647. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 93% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.