Mornington - West

Population growth drivers in Mornington - West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Mornington - West's population is approximately 10,847. This figure represents an increase of 266 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,581. The growth was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 10,843 in June 2024 and an additional 76 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 1,694 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mornington - West's growth rate since the Census (2.5%) exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate (2.3%), indicating it as a region leader in growth. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 1,861 persons based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 17.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Mornington - West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Mornington-West has seen approximately 63 new home approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 315 homes. As of FY26, 23 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were noted between FY21 and FY25, suggesting supply is meeting or exceeding demand while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction cost value for new homes was $586,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In FY26, $13.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington-West shows moderately higher new home approvals, at 13.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. New developments consist of 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 66.0% houses.

With around 231 people per dwelling approval, Mornington-West shows characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mornington-West is projected to add 1,857 residents by 2041. Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Mornington - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal, and Woodbyne Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Mornington - West demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington - West has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year.

In September 2025, 4,978 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation was 48.6%, significantly below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area has a specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

In contrast, transport, postal & warehousing employs just 2.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. The ratio of 0.6 workers per resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 3.0%, resulting in an unemployment fall of 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2022 indicates that Mornington - West SA2 had a median income of $52,310 and an average income of $74,899. This compares to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 for the same period. Using Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year ended June 2022, estimated current incomes would be approximately $58,671 (median) and $84,007 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, personal income ranks at the 44th percentile ($780 weekly), while household income is at the 27th percentile. Distribution data shows that 25.9% of residents (2,809 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, which aligns with surrounding regions where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 27th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Mornington - West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mornington - West's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.5% houses and 34.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington - West was at 49.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.0% and rented ones at 26.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,989. The median weekly rent was $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Mornington - West's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Mornington - West features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.9% of all households, including 17.2% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 35.5% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Mornington - West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.7%, higher than the SA4 region average of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 15.0% and certificates at 21.1%.

A total of 22.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 6.9% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 69 active stops operating in Mornington - West, offering mixed bus services. These are served by 4 routes, facilitating 1,557 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good, with residents typically 201 meters from nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 222 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 22 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mornington - West is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington - West faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 57%, covering around 6,193 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.1% of residents) and mental health issues (7.7%). Notably, 61.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 42.1% (4,562 people), than the Greater Melbourne average of 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong, even outperforming the general population in certain metrics.

Mornington - West ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington-West had a lower cultural diversity, with 76.6% born in Australia, 88.2% being citizens, and 94.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 50.8%. Judaism was overrepresented, comprising 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%.

Top ancestry groups were English (34.6%), Australian (24.7%), and Irish (10.6%). Scottish, Welsh, and Dutch groups showed notable divergences in representation.

Mornington - West ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Mornington - West is 57 years, which is significantly higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 years and considerably older than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 17.5% locally, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 5.8%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 13.8% to 17.5% of the population between 2016 and 2021. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 7.2% to 5.8%, and the 65 to 74 group has dropped from 19.3% to 18.2%. By the year 2041, Mornington - West is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 139%, reaching 1,647 people from 688. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 93% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.