Somerville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Somerville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Somerville's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 19,098 people. This figure represents a growth of 576 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,522. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,098 as of June 2025 and an additional 149 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 162 persons per square kilometer. Somerville's growth rate of 3.1% since the 2021 census exceeds that of the SA3 area at 2.0%, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 49.9% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts and latest annual ERP population numbers, Somerville is expected to grow by 2,164 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.3% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Somerville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Somerville has seen approximately 68 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 342 homes. As of FY-26, 23 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 new residents per year are arriving for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these new properties is $300,000, consistent with regional patterns.

In FY-26, there have been $17.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice for new homes. New development consists of 71% standalone homes and 29% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population density is 567 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, Somerville is expected to grow by 2,164 residents through to 2041. Building activity is currently keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Somerville has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 36 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Somerville Cove, Tyabb-Somerville Recycled Water Scheme, Somerville Local Area Traffic Management - Black Spot Project, and Somerville Active Recreation Hub. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Somerville ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Somerville has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.4% as of December 2025. Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of that date, 10,350 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 19.4% of residents work from home. The leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

In contrast, professional & technical employs only 5.2% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on the count of Census working population to local population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 2.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Somerville's employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Somerville's employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The median income among taxpayers in Somerville SA2 was $55,316 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $71,063 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $60,637 (median) and $77,899 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Somerville are around the 50th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 34.9% of the community, with 6,665 individuals falling into this category. After housing expenses, 85.2% of income remains for other expenses. Somerville's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Somerville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluation showed that 85.4% of dwellings in Somerville were houses, with the remaining 14.7% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Somerville was higher at 35.3%, compared to the remainder of dwellings being mortgaged (48.8%) or rented (15.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Somerville was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Somerville was recorded at $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Somerville's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Somerville has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.7% of all households, including 33.8% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households at 1.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Somerville aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (30.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.1%, comprising primary education (8.9%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (3.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 54 active transport stops operating within Somerville. These stops are served by 4 individual routes, collectively offering 456 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 464 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 19.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 65 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Somerville is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Somerville faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 54% of Somerville's total population (~10,332 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues (10.1%) and arthritis (9.3%), while 64.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of 2020, the area has 21.7% of residents aged 65 and over (4,140 people), which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Somerville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Somerville, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, showed lower than average cultural diversity with 84.7% of its population born in Australia and 91.9% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 96.1%. Christianity was the predominant religion at 42.1%, while Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

Ancestry-wise, English (34.3%), Australian (30.3%), and Scottish (8.4%) were the top groups, each substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and 5.7% respectively. Notably, Dutch (2.3%) and Welsh (0.6%) were overrepresented compared to regional figures of 1.2% and 0.4%.

Somerville's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Somerville's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (11.5% locally) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75-84 grew from 5.9% to 7.5%, while the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.9% to 11.5% and the 25-34 group decreased from 13.2% to 12.0%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Somerville's age profile by 2041. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 62%, adding 884 residents to reach a total of 2,319. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 76% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 35-44 and 5-14 age groups.