Somerville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Somerville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Somerville's population is approximately 19,392 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 870 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 18,522. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,104 in June 2024 and the addition of 145 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 165 persons per square kilometer. Somerville's growth rate of 4.7% since the Census exceeded that of its SA3 area (2.3%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.1% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Somerville is expected to grow by approximately 2,242 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 9.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Somerville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Somerville has seen around 68 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 342 homes. In FY-26 so far, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 new residents per year arrived for each new home between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these properties was $300,000, consistent with regional patterns.

This financial year has seen $17.9 million in commercial approvals, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. New development consists of 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Somerville's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. The estimated count of 567 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Somerville is expected to grow by 1,822 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Somerville has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Somerville Cove, Tyabb-Somerville Recycled Water Scheme, Somerville Local Area Traffic Management - Black Spot Project, and Somerville Active Recreation Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Somerville exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Somerville's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. Unemployment rate was 3.2% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. As of September 2025, 10,292 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7% while labour force also grew by 2.7%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. As of 25-Nov-25, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Somerville's employment mix, local employment is estimated to grow by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Somerville SA2 is $52,364, with an average of $67,731, based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is higher than the national averages of $54,892 median and $73,761 average in Greater Melbourne. As of September 2025, current estimates project these figures to approximately $58,731 (median) and $75,967 (average), accounting for a 12.16% growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Somerville cluster around the national median. The earnings profile shows that 34.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which aligns with the surrounding region at 32.8%. After housing expenses, 85.2% of income remains for other expenditures. Somerville's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Somerville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Somerville, as per the latest Census evaluation, 85.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 14.7% being other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is comparable to Melbourne's metropolitan area, where 85.5% of dwellings are houses and 14.5% are other types. Home ownership in Somerville stood at 35.3%, with the rest either mortgaged (48.8%) or rented (15.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne's average of $1,989. The median weekly rent figure was $380, matching Melbourne's metropolitan average. Nationally, Somerville's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Somerville has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.7% of all households, including 33.8% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households making up 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Somerville aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.7% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 30.4%. Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.9% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Somerville shows that there are 54 active transport stops operating within the city. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. There are 4 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 523 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 465 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes is 74 trips per day, which equates to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Somerville is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Somerville faces significant health challenges, with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% (around 10,355 people), compared to 57.9% across Greater Melbourne.

Mental health issues impact 10.1% of residents, while arthritis affects 9.3%. Approximately 64.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 21.2% (around 4,114 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 29.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Somerville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Somerville's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 84.7% born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 42.1%. Judaism, however, showed overrepresentation at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%.

Top ancestry groups were English (34.3%), Australian (30.3%), and Scottish (8.4%). Notable differences included Dutch (2.3% vs regional 1.8%), Welsh (0.6% vs 0.6%), and Hungarian (0.3% vs 0.3%).

Somerville's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Somerville's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has a notably larger percentage of residents aged 55-64 (13.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75-84 grew from 5.9% to 7.3%, while the 45-54 age group decreased from 12.9% to 11.6%. By 2041, Somerville's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 68%, adding 957 residents to reach a total of 2,367. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 84% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 35-44 and 5-14 age groups.