Somerville
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Somerville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Somerville's population is 19,383 as of Aug 2025. This shows an increase of 861 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 18,522. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 19,095 in Jun 2024 and 145 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 165 persons per square kilometer. Somerville's growth rate (4.6%) exceeded its SA3 area (2.3%) and SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.1% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovers areas, it employs Victorian Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Projected demographic shifts suggest a median population increase by 2041, with Somerville expected to grow by 2,242 persons, reflecting a 9.4% total increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Somerville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Somerville has seen approximately 68 new homes approved each year. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 342 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 3 approvals so far in FY-26. On average, only 0.4 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these five financial years, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, which provides greater buyer choice and supports potential population growth above projections. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $502,000.

There has been $17.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice that supports interest in existing homes. This reflects market maturity and suggests possible development constraints. New development consists of 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated count of 567 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Somerville is expected to grow by 1,831 residents through to 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Somerville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region can be significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A total of 37 such projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact the area. Notable projects include Somerville Local Area Traffic Management - Black Spot Project, Somerville Cove, Tyabb-Somerville Recycled Water Scheme, and Somerville Residential Growth Area. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Somerville exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Somerville has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.5% as of June 2025. The construction sector is particularly prominent, with employment growth estimated at 3.8% over the past year.

As of this date, 10,273 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Somerville is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Somerville has a higher-than-average specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. While local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8%, labour force by 4.6%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Somerville's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Somerville had a median taxpayer income of $52,364 and an average of $67,731 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This was higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. By March 2025, estimated incomes based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $57,658 (median) and $74,579 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Somerville were around the national median. The earnings profile showed that 34.9% of individuals earned between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to the surrounding region at 32.8%. After housing expenses, 85.2% of income remained for other costs. Somerville's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the fifth decile.

Somerville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Somerville, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.4% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. In Melbourne metro, it was 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Somerville was 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.8% and rented ones at 15.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Somerville was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,989 and the Australian average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Somerville was $380, equal to Melbourne metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375.

Somerville has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.7% of all households, consisting of 33.8% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Somerville aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 30.4%. Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education. Eleven schools serve 3,991 students, with Somerville having typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1015) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes seven primary, two secondary, and two K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs, with 20.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.3, indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 54 active public transport stops in Somerville. These include train and bus services. There are 4 routes serving these stops, offering a total of 523 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 465 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 74 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Somerville is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Somerville faces significant health challenges, with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 53% (~10,350 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%.

Mental health issues impact 10.1%, while arthritis affects 9.3% of residents. About 64.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 63.9%. The area has 21.2% (4,113 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Somerville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Somerville had a cultural diversity below average, with 84.7% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 42.1%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (34.3%), Australian (30.3%), and Scottish (8.4%). Notably, Dutch (2.3%) and Welsh (0.6%) were equally represented regionally, while Hungarian was slightly higher at 0.3% in Somerville versus the regional average of 0.3%.

Somerville's median age exceeds the national pattern

At age 41 years, Somerville's median age is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Somerville at 13.7%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 7.3% of Somerville's population, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.9% to 11.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Somerville's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 68%, adding 957 residents to reach a total of 2,367. This growth is primarily due to demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older representing 84% of the anticipated population increase. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 35-44 and 5-14 age cohorts.