Somerville
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Somerville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Somerville's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 19,392, indicating a growth of 870 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 4.7% rise from the previously recorded figure of 18,522. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,104 in June 2024 and an additional 145 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 165 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential for further development. Somerville's growth rate of 4.7% since the 2021 census surpassed that of its SA3 area (2.3%) and SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.1% to overall population gains during recent periods, driving this increase.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Somerville is expected to experience a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch by 2041. The area is projected to grow by 2,242 persons over this period, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 9.4%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Somerville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, Somerville has seen approximately 68 new homes approved annually, totalling 342 homes. As of FY26, 10 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 new residents arrive per year for each new home built over these five years, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new properties is $300,000, aligning with regional patterns.

In FY26, commercial approvals have reached $17.9 million, demonstrating steady investment activity in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. New development in Somerville consists of 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% attached dwellings, maintaining its traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 567 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Somerville is projected to grow by 1,822 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Somerville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 37 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Somerville Local Area Traffic Management - Black Spot Project, Somerville Cove, Tyabb-Somerville Recycled Water Scheme, and Somerville Residential Growth Area. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Somerville exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Somerville has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.5% as of June 2025. The construction sector is particularly well-represented among residents, with employment growth estimated at 3.8% over the past year.

As of this date, 10,273 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Somerville is similar to Greater Melbourne's rate of 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment is notably higher at 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8%, labour force grew by 4.6%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Somerville's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Somerville had a median taxpayer income of $52,364 and an average income of $67,731 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This was higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes for Somerville would be approximately $58,731 (median) and $75,967 (average). The 2021 Census showed that household, family, and personal incomes in Somerville were around the 50th percentile nationally. In terms of earnings, 34.9% of individuals earned between $1,500 - $2,999, which aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort also represented 32.8%. After housing expenses, 85.2% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Somerville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Somerville, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 85.4% houses and 14.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is comparable to Melbourne metro's structure which was 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings at the same Census date. Home ownership in Somerville stood at 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.8% and rented dwellings at 15.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Somerville was $1,800 as of June 2021, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,989 during the same period. Median weekly rent in Somerville was recorded at $380 in June 2021, matching Melbourne metro's figure of $380 for the same month. Nationally, as of June 2021, Somerville's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Somerville has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.7% of all households, including 33.8% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Somerville aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (12.5%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (30.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.1%, comprising primary education (8.9%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (3.3%).

Eleven schools serve 3,991 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1015) and balanced educational opportunities. The area has seven primary, two secondary, and two K-12 schools, with a higher capacity than typical residential needs (20.6 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 14.3), indicating it serves as an educational hub for the broader region.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Somerville shows 54 active public transport stops operating. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. Four routes collectively provide 523 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated moderate, with residents typically located 465 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 74 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Somerville is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Somerville faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 53% of Somerville's total population (~10,355 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%.

The most common medical conditions in Somerville are mental health issues (10.1%) and arthritis (9.3%), with 64.2% of residents declaring themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2017, 21.2% of Somerville's residents are aged 65 and over (4,114 people), lower than the 29.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Somerville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Somerville's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 84.7% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, accounting for 42.1% of Somerville's population. Judaism was overrepresented, comprising 0.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (34.3%), Australian (30.3%), and Scottish (8.4%). Notably, Dutch (2.3%) and Welsh (0.6%) were also overrepresented in Somerville compared to regional averages.

Somerville's median age exceeds the national pattern

Somerville's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing Somerville's demographics with Greater Melbourne's, the 55-64 age group is notably larger at 13.7% locally compared to the regional average, while the 25-34 age group is smaller at 12.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 7.3% of Somerville's population, while the 45-54 age group has decreased from 12.9% to 11.6%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Somerville's age profile. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 68%, adding 957 residents to reach a total of 2,367. This growth is part of an overall aging trend, with residents aged 65 and older accounting for 84% of the projected population increase. Conversely, population declines are anticipated for the 35-44 and 5-14 age groups.