Mornington (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Mornington (Vic.), as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS data and new addresses validated since May 2026, is approximately 25,996. This figure represents an increase of 237 people compared to the 2021 Census result of 25,759 residents. The current population is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 25,982 residents following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, along with an additional 141 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,232 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mornington's growth rate of 0.9% since the census places it within close proximity to the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.0%. The primary driver for this population growth has been overseas migration.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by the former data set. For years 2032 to 2041, growth rates by age group are applied across all areas based on these aggregations. According to these projections, Mornington is expected to experience above median population growth nationally, with an anticipated expansion of 3,309 persons by the year 2041. This would result in a total gain of 12.7% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mornington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Mornington shows an average of around 96 new dwelling approvals per year. From FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 480 homes were approved, with a further 50 approved so far in FY-26. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $721,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year, there have been $17.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington has about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New developments consist of 48.0% detached dwellings and 52.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is currently 77.0% houses, due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Mornington has around 322 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mornington's population is forecasted to increase by 3,295 residents through to 2041. Construction pace is maintaining reasonable growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population grows.

Mornington has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that may affect the area. Notable ones are Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Woodbyne Estate, and Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal. The following list details those likely to be most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Mornington demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Mornington has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of December 2025, 12,189 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was at 55.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 26.1% of residents worked from home. Key industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment levels were particularly high, at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 6.7%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 2.4% alongside a labour force increase of 2.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth rates of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2023, Mornington suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $49,627 with an average level of $71,057. This is higher than national averages and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year ended 30 June 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $54,401 (median) and $77,893 (average). According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021, Mornington's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly between the 32nd and 37th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 28.0% of the population (7,278 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mornington, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Mornington, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.0% houses and 23.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington was 43.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.9% and rented ones at 22.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Mornington was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. The median weekly rent figure in Mornington was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Mornington's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Mornington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Mornington performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (23.8%). Educational participation is high, with 25.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 8.6% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Mornington area has 118 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are covered by four different routes that collectively facilitate 926 weekly passenger journeys. The accessibility of these transport services is deemed good, with residents typically situated 256 meters from their nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most Mornington residents commute outwards, with the car being the primary mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census data (which may reflect COVID-19 conditions), 26.1% of residents work from home.

The service frequency averages 132 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly seven weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map illustrates the hundred nearest stops in relation to the location's centrepoint.

Mornington's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~14,274 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.0 and 8.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 33.2% of residents aged 65 and over (8,630 people), which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally in line with the overall population.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016 data, showed lower cultural diversity with 77.7% of its population born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 94.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 49.4%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.6%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (9.6%). These figures were notably higher than the regional averages: English (20.1%), Australian (18.4%). Other ethnicities with notable overrepresentation included Scottish at 9.3% (regional average 5.6%), Dutch at 1.8% (regional average 1.2%), and Welsh at 0.7% (regional average 0.4%).

Mornington ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Mornington's median age is 50 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (13.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7%). The concentration of residents aged 75-84 in Mornington is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 11.7% to 13.9%, while the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 9.6% to 11.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 8.2% to 7%. By 2041, Mornington is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The demographic shift will be led by the 85+ age group, which is projected to grow by 106% (1,629 people), reaching 3,163 from 1,533. This growth is part of an overall trend of demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older representing 86% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.