Mornington (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Mornington (Vic.) is around 26,010. This reflects an increase of 251 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 25,759. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 25,954 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,233 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mornington's growth rate of 1.0% since census is within 2.7 percentage points of its SA3 area (3.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics project an above median growth, with the area expected to expand by 3,556 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 13.5% over 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mornington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Mornington averaged approximately 96 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY21 and FY25, around 480 homes were approved, with a further 36 approved in FY26 as of now. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely met demand, providing good options for buyers.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $721,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment. This financial year has seen $17.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile nationally. New developments consist of 48.0% detached dwellings and 52.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This change contrasts with the current housing mix of 77.0% houses.

Mornington's population density is around 322 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mornington is projected to gain approximately 3,500 residents by 2041. Construction pace has maintained reasonable growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as population increases.

Mornington has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Woodbyne Estate, and Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Mornington shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Mornington has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.9%.

As of September 2025, there are 12,125 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation in Mornington is lower at 55.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census data shows that 26.1% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average, while professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many Mornington residents commute elsewhere for work. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.9%, with a corresponding increase in labour force of 2.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.7%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise to 4.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Mornington's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

In financial year 2023, Mornington suburb had a median taxpayer income of $49,627 and an average income of $71,057. Nationally, the averages were $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). By September 2025, estimates suggest Mornington's median income will be approximately $53,721 and average income $76,919, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Mornington's incomes rank modestly, between the 32nd and 37th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows 28.0% of Mornington's population (7,282 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile. Mornington's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mornington, as per the latest Census, 77.0% of dwellings were houses while 23.0% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This contrasts with Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington stood at 43.7%, with mortgaged properties at 33.9% and rented ones at 22.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne's average, while the median weekly rent was $400 compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Mornington's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Mornington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Mornington performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (23.8%). Educational participation is high, with 25.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 8.6% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Mornington indicates there are 118 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 4 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 926 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 256 meters from their nearest transport stop. Mornington is primarily residential, and most residents commute outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation for these residents at a rate of 93%.

On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census data, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions, a high proportion of residents, specifically 26.1%, work from home. The service frequency averages 132 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, illustrating the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Mornington's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks.

AreaSearch assessed mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, finding common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very high, at approximately 55% of the total population (around 14,282 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.0% and 8.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are generally typical. The area has 33.9% of residents aged 65 and over (8,817 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 77.7% of its population born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 94.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Mornington, comprising 49.4% of people. However, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (33.6%, regional average: 20.1%), Australian (26.6%, regional average: 18.4%), and Irish (9.6%). Notably, Scottish (9.3%, regional average: 5.6%), Dutch (1.8%, regional average: 1.2%), and Welsh (0.7%, regional average: 0.4%) are overrepresented in Mornington.

Mornington ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Mornington's median age is 50 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (14.3%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (6.6%). This concentration of residents aged 75-84 is well above the national figure of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of Mornington's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 11.7% to 14.3%, while the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 9.6% to 11.0%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 8.2% to 6.6%, and the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has dropped from 13.2% to 12.0%. By 2041, Mornington is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 110%, reaching 3,324 people from the current 1,586. Demographic aging will continue as residents aged 65 and older represent 86% of anticipated growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.