Mornington (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the suburb of Mornington (Vic.) is estimated to be around 26,010 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 251 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 25,759 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 25,954 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 141 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,233 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mornington's 1.0% growth since census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 3,566 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 13.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mornington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Mornington averaged around 96 new dwelling approvals each year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 480 homes were approved, with a further 37 approved so far in FY-26. The average construction cost value of these new homes is $721,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This year has seen $17.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New developments consist of 48.0% detached dwellings and 52.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 77.0% houses. Mornington shows characteristics of a low density area with around 322 people per dwelling approval.

Population forecasts indicate Mornington will gain approximately 3,510 residents by 2041. Construction pace has been reasonable to keep up with projected growth, although buyers may face increasing competition as population increases.

Mornington has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Woodbyne Estate, and Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Mornington demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Mornington has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of December 2025, 12,189 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

However, workforce participation lagged significantly at 55.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 26.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction showed notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average, while professional & technical services had lower representation at 6.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 2.4%, and labour force grew by 2.1%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 suggest that Mornington's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolations of industry-specific projections against the local employment profile.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

In Mornington suburb, median taxpayer income was $49,627 and average income stood at $71,057 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. Nationally, average income was lower at $57,688. In Greater Melbourne, median taxpayer income was $57,688 and average income was $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $53,721 and average income $76,919 based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. In Mornington, household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly between the 32nd and 37th percentiles according to 2021 Census figures. Income distribution showed that 28.0% of population (7,282 individuals) fell within $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile. Mornington's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Mornington, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 77.0% houses and 23.0% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington stood at 43.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged at 33.9% or rented at 22.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390 respectively. Nationally, Mornington's median monthly mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863 as of 30 June 2021, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375 for the same period.

Mornington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.7 percent of all households, including 25 percent couples with children, 30 percent couples without children, and 11 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3 percent, with lone person households at 31.5 percent and group households comprising 1.9 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Mornington performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 13.6% and certificates for 23.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mornington has 118 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by four individual bus routes that collectively facilitate 926 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good with residents typically located 256 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in Mornington. According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 132 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop. The map provided shows the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Mornington's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence data.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, with arthritis and mental health issues being the most common, affecting 11.0% and 8.5% of residents respectively. Approximately 55% (~14,282 people) have private health cover, which is very high compared to national averages. A total of 61.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, whereas this figure stands at 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are generally typical. Mornington has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 34.2% (8,895 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they align broadly with national rankings for the general population.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 77.7% born in Australia and 89.4% being citizens. English was the home language for 94.1%. Christianity dominated religion at 49.4%.

Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. Top ancestral groups were English (33.6%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (9.6%). Notably, Scottish (9.3%) and Dutch (1.8%) were also overrepresented.

Mornington ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Mornington's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. Mornington has a higher concentration of residents aged 75-84 (14.4%) compared to Greater Melbourne but fewer residents aged 25-34 (6.6%). This 75-84 age group is well above the national percentage of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of Mornington's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 11.7% to 14.4%, while the 15 to 24 age group increased from 9.6% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group decreased from 8.2% to 6.6%, and the 45 to 54 age group dropped from 13.2% to 12.0%. By 2041, Mornington's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 107%, reaching 3,343 people from the current 1,612. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 86% of this growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to decrease in number.