Mornington (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Mornington (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 26,003 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 244 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 25,759. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 25,954 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 143 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,233 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Mornington (Vic.) (SA2) has shown competitive growth fundamentals with a 0.9% increase since the Census, positioning it within 2.8 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.7%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels for areas not covered by ABS data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends anticipate an above median population growth, with the area expected to expand by 3,556 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 13.5% in total over the 17 years from 2025.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mornington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Mornington averaged around 96 new dwelling approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 480 homes were approved, with another 36 approved in FY-26 as of now. The population decline in recent years suggests demand has been met by supply, providing good options for buyers.

New homes are being built at an average cost of $721,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment. This financial year, there have been $17.6 million in commercial approvals, signifying balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile nationally for assessed areas. New developments consist of 48.0% detached dwellings and 52.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living which is affordable for entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands.

Mornington has around 322 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density area. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Mornington will gain 3,507 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population grows.

Mornington has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Woodbyne Estate, and Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Mornington shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Mornington has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 3.0%, lower than the national average of 5.1%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.9%. As of September 2025, there are 12,125 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Mornington is lower at 53.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.7% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Many Mornington residents commute elsewhere for work. In the past year, employment increased by 2.9%, while labour force grew by 2.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable. Comparing this to Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

In Mornington, median taxpayer income was $49,627 and average income was $71,057 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023. Nationally, the averages were $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $53,721 (median) and $76,919 (average). In Mornington, household incomes ranked at the 32nd to 37th percentiles according to the 2021 Census. Income distribution showed 28% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999. Housing affordability was severe with only 83% of income remaining after expenses, ranking at the 31st percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mornington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.0% houses and 23.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington was 43.7%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 33.9% and rented dwellings made up 22.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Mornington was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. Median weekly rent in Mornington was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Mornington's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Mornington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Mornington performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 23.8%. Educational participation is high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mornington has 119 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 926 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with Mornington residents typically living within 256 meters of the nearest stop.

On average, there are 132 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 55% of Mornington's total population (~14,278 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.8%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and mental health issues (8.5%). Conversely, 61.8% report no medical ailments, versus 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. Mornington has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.9% (8,554 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors perform well relative to the general population.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington's population, surveyed in June 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 77.7% born in Australia and 89.4% being citizens. English was the language spoken at home by 94.1%. Christianity dominated religiously, at 49.4%, but Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%.

Ancestry-wise, top groups were English (33.6%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (9.6%). Notable divergences included Scottish at 9.3% (vs regional 9.0%), Dutch at 1.8% (vs regional 1.8%), and Welsh at 0.7% (vs regional 0.6%).

Mornington ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Mornington's median age is 50 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (13.8%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (6.8%). This 75-84 age group concentration is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of Mornington's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 11.7% to 13.8%, while the proportion aged 15 to 24 has increased from 9.6% to 11.0%. Conversely, the proportion aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 8.2% to 6.8%. By 2041, Mornington's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The demographic shift will be led by the 85+ group, which is projected to grow by 124% (an increase of 1,841 people), reaching a total of 3,324 from the current figure of 1,482. This growth in the older population continues as residents aged 65 and above will represent 88% of the anticipated growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to decrease in number.