Mornington (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The suburb of Mornington (Vic.) had an estimated population of 25,980 as of November 2025, based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the Census. This figure represents a growth of 221 people from the 2021 Census count of 25,759, reflecting a 0.9% increase. The estimated resident population was 25,966 as of June 2024, according to AreaSearch's examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and an additional 143 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,231 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Mornington's growth rate since the census is within 1.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.3%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods for the suburb.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and uses Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by ABS data. Future population growth projections anticipate an above-median increase, with Mornington expected to add 3,556 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 13.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mornington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Mornington has averaged around 96 new dwelling approvals each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, an estimated 480 homes were approved. As of FY26, 34 dwellings have been approved so far.

The average construction cost value for these new homes is $721,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26, there have also been $17.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington records about three-quarters of the building activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile nationally. New developments consist of 48.0% detached dwellings and 52.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This is a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 77.0% houses.

With around 322 people per dwelling approval, Mornington shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Mornington will gain 3,530 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Mornington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Neue Space Mornington, Mornington Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Woodbyne Estate, and Civic Reserve Recreation Centre Stadium Roof and Cladding Renewal. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Mornington demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Mornington has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 3.9%. As of June 2025, there are 12,128 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation is lower at 53.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction employment is notably high at 1.5 times the regional average, while professional & technical services are underrepresented at 6.7% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. In the past year, employment increased by 3.9%, labour force by 4.7%, raising unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 3.5%, labour force expansion of 4.0%, and unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch reported median taxpayer income in Mornington was $49,627 in financial year 2022. Average income stood at $71,057. Nationally, average incomes were lower at $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $55,662, with average income around $79,698, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Mornington's household, family and personal incomes ranked modestly between the 32nd and 37th percentiles. Income distribution showed 28.0% of residents earning $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile. Mornington's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mornington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.0% houses and 23.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington was 43.7%, similar to Melbourne metro. Mortgaged dwellings were 33.9% and rented ones were 22.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,989. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Mornington's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Mornington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.7% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Mornington performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The Mornington area's university qualification rate is 25.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 23.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education. Mornington has a robust network of 9 schools educating approximately 5,189 students, showing typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1027) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 4 primary, 4 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (20.0 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 14.3), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Mornington shows that there are 119 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 4 individual routes providing service. The weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 1,557.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents on average located 256 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency across all routes averages 222 trips per day, which translates to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 55% of the total population (~14,265 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and mental health issues (8.5%). About 61.8% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne at 63.9%. Mornington has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 32.9% (~8,547 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 77.7% of its population born in Australia and 89.4% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 94.1%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 49.4% of Mornington's population.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.2% of Mornington's population identifying as Jewish versus 0.2% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English at 33.6%, Australian at 26.6%, and Irish at 9.6%. Notable divergences existed in the representation of Scottish (9.3% vs regional 9.0%), Dutch (1.8% vs regional 1.8%), and Welsh (0.7% vs regional 0.6%) ethnic groups.

Mornington ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Mornington's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mornington has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (13.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (6.8%). This 75-84 concentration is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 11.7% to 13.8%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has grown from 9.6% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 8.2% to 6.8%. By 2041, Mornington's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 124%, reaching 3,324 people from the current 1,480. This growth will be led by residents aged 65 and older, who are expected to represent 87% of the total population growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are anticipated to decrease in numbers.