Somerville (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Somerville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Somerville (Vic.) is around 12,638. This figure reflects an increase of 871 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,767. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 12,072 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 327 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth rate of 7.4% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (3.7%) and the SA4 region, making it a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering these projections, an above median population growth is expected for the suburb until 2041, with an anticipated expansion of 1,434 persons and a total gain of 6.9% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Somerville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Somerville averaged approximately 44 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 221 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 0.5 people moved to Somerville per dwelling built, indicating supply meets or exceeds demand. The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $502,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $10.9 million, showing balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks in the 37th percentile nationally, offering more limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing homes. New building activity comprises 70% detached houses and 30% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options across price brackets.

The estimated population count is 445 people per dwelling approval, reflecting Somerville's quiet development environment. Future projections estimate Somerville will add 876 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Somerville has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Somerville Cove, Somerville Local Area Traffic Management - Black Spot Project, Tyabb-Somerville Recycled Water Scheme, and Somerville Active Recreation Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Somerville well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Somerville has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.7%. As of September 2025, 6458 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was at 67.9%, slightly below Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 19.0% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries were construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction had an employment share 1.8 times the regional level, while professional & technical employed only 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7%, and labour force grew by 2.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and the labour force expand by 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest future demand within Somerville. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Somerville's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this extrapolation does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Somerville had a median taxpayer income of $53,152 and an average income of $68,750. These figures are slightly above the national averages of $52,974 (median) and $67,048 (average). In Greater Melbourne, the corresponding figures were $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $57,537 (median) and $74,422 (average) in Somerville. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Somerville are at the 51st percentile nationally. Incomes cluster around $1,500 - $2,999 weekly for 34.9% of residents (4,410 individuals), similar to the broader area where 32.8% fall within this range. After housing expenses, 84.9% of income remains for other expenditures. Somerville's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Somerville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Somerville, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Somerville was higher than that of Melbourne metro at 33.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (49.6%) or rented (16.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,800, lower than the Melbourne metro average of $2,000 and the Australian average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Somerville was recorded at $380, higher than the national figure of $375 but lower than Melbourne metro's $390.

Somerville has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.8% of all households, including 34.8% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 23.5% and group households at 1.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Somerville aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (30.3%). Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.5% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 25 active transport stops operating within Somerville. These stops are served by a mix of buses along three individual routes, collectively providing 432 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 519 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 19.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 61 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Somerville is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Somerville faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts.

Approximately 54% (~6,825 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in Somerville, impacting 10.3% and 9.1% of residents respectively. Around 64.0% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. The area has 22.1% (2,792 people) aged 65 and over, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Somerville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Somerville's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 84.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Somerville, comprising 42.0% of people. Judaism, however, is overrepresented in Somerville compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.1% versus 1.0%.

The top three represented ancestry groups based on parents' country of birth are English (34.6%), Australian (30.6%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notably, Dutch (2.3%) and Welsh (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Somerville compared to regional averages of 1.2% and 0.4%, respectively.

Somerville's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Somerville has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has a notably higher proportion of people aged 65-74 (11.3% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (11.8%). Between 2021 and the present, the population aged 75-84 grew from 5.8% to 7.7%, while the 25-34 age group declined from 13.3% to 11.8% and the 45-54 age group decreased from 12.3% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Somerville's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 532 people (a 55% increase) from 973 to 1,506. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting Somerville's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.