Somerville (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Somerville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the population of the Somerville (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 12,636 people. This figure reflects an increase of 869 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,767 people in the area. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 12,072 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 93 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio for Somerville (Vic.) (SA2) is approximately 326 persons per square kilometer. This level of population indicates significant space per person and potential room for further development in the area. Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, the population growth rate for the Somerville (Vic.) (SA2) was higher than that of both the SA3 area (3.7%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region during this period.

Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains in the Somerville (Vic.) (SA2) during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering these projected demographic shifts, the Somerville (Vic.) (SA2) is expected to grow by just below the median of national statistical areas. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is expected to increase its population by 1,440 persons to reach approximately 14,076 people by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of around 7.0% over the 17-year period from 2025 to 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Somerville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Somerville saw around 44 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 221 homes were approved, with 12 more in FY-26 as of now. Each year, about 0.5 new residents per dwelling were added over the past five financial years.

This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of these homes was $502,000, suggesting developers targeted the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $10.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 37th percentile nationally, offering more limited choices for buyers but supporting demand for existing homes. New developments consist of 70% detached dwellings and 30% attached dwellings, providing a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets. The estimated population density is 445 people per dwelling approval, reflecting Somerville's quiet development environment. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates that Somerville will grow by 881 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Somerville has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Somerville Cove, Somerville Local Area Traffic Management - Black Spot Project, Tyabb-Somerville Recycled Water Scheme, and Somerville Active Recreation Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Somerville shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Somerville has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. As of September 2025, 6,462 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.8% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors among Somerville residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction has particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence, at 5.1% compared to the regional 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7%, while labour force increased by 2.8%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% over the same period, with labour force expanding by 3.3% and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Somerville's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Somerville is $53,152, with an average of $68,750, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is slightly above the national average, which contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $57,537 and the average $74,422, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data shows that incomes in Somerville cluster around the 51st percentile nationally. Income distribution indicates that 34.9% of locals (4,409 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 84.9% of income remains for other expenditure. Somerville's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Somerville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Somerville, as per the latest Census assessment, 82.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.6% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This compares to Melbourne's metropolitan area, where 85.5% of dwellings are houses, and 14.5% are other dwelling types. Home ownership in Somerville stood at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 49.6% and rented dwellings accounting for 16.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,800, lower than Melbourne's metropolitan average of $1,989. Weekly rent in Somerville was recorded at $380, matching Melbourne's metro figure of $380. Nationally, Somerville's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Somerville has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.8% of all households, including 34.8% composed of couples with children, 27.3% consisting of couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 23.5% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Somerville aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (30.3%). Educational participation is high at 26.5%, with 9.5% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that Somerville has 25 active transport stops in operation, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by three distinct routes, collectively facilitating 432 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing approximately 519 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes stands at 61 trips per day, translating to roughly 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Somerville is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Somerville faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions notably prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 54% of its total population (~6824 people) has private health cover, compared to 57.8% across Greater Melbourne.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 10.3 and 9.1% of residents respectively. 64.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 63.9% across Greater Melbourne. As of August 2021, 21.2% of Somerville's residents are aged 65 and over (2678 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Somerville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Somerville's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of the latest data, 84.3% of its population were born in Australia, with 92.0% being citizens and 96.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was identified as the main religion, comprising 42.0% of Somerville's population.

Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to 0.2% across Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (34.6%), Australian (30.6%), and Scottish (8.2%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.3% compared to 1.8% regionally, Welsh at 0.7% compared to 0.6%, and Hungarian at 0.3%.

Somerville's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Somerville has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Somerville has a notably higher proportion of people aged 65-74 (10.9% locally), but fewer people aged 25-34 (12.3%). Between 2021 and the present, the population of those aged 75-84 has grown from 5.8% to 7.3%, while the proportion of those aged 45-54 has declined from 12.3% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Somerville's age profile will significantly change. The number of people aged 75-84 is projected to grow by 581 (63%) to reach 1,504. Notably, the combined population growth for those aged 65 and above will account for 88% of the total population increase, reflecting Somerville's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the populations of those aged 55-64 and 15-24 are expected to decrease.