Baxter

Baxter is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Baxter's population is estimated at around 2,138 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 28 people (1.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,166 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,103 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 215 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the suburb expected to grow by 238 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 14.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Baxter, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Baxter has experienced around 8 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 42 homes were approved, with none so far in FY-26. The average population increase per dwelling built over these years was 0.6 people.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $502,000. In FY-26, there have been $4.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited focus on commercial development.

Comparatively, Baxter records about three-quarters the building activity per person when measured against Greater Melbourne. Nationally, it places among the 23rd percentile of areas assessed, indicating somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. New building activity comprises 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of people in the area per dwelling approval is 732. Population forecasts indicate Baxter will gain 308 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Baxter has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Somerville Residential Growth Area, Somerville Police Station, Somerville Community and Recreation Centre, and Somerville Railway Station Upgrade. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Baxter has been broadly consistent with national averages

Baxter's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a 3.9% unemployment rate and 3.4% employment growth in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, Baxter has 1,192 residents employed, with an unemployment rate at 0.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction is particularly prominent, with employment share at 2.2 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 4.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4% and labour force by 4.3%, leading to a 0.8 percentage point unemployment rise. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Baxter's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Baxter is approximately average nationally, with a median income of $50,852 and an average income of $65,776. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures where the median income was $54,892 and the average income was $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $57,036 (median) and $73,774 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Baxter, with 33.5% of the population falling within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where similarly 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Baxter, with only 83.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 35th percentile.

Baxter is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Baxter, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.3% houses and 12.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Baxter was 35.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.3% and rented ones at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Baxter was $1,690, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,989. Median weekly rent in Baxter was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Baxter's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Baxter features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.9 percent of all households, including 26.4 percent couples with children, 27.4 percent couples without children, and 12.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.1 percent, with lone person households at 31.0 percent and group households comprising 1.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Baxter fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (32.5%). A total of 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 7.8% in primary, 5.5% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Baxter Primary School serves the area, enrolling 197 students as of a specific date. The school's ICSEA score is 992, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. It caters exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available nearby. The area has 9.2 school places per 100 residents, lower than the regional average of 14.3, suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 12 active stops operating in Baxter. These include train and bus services. There are 4 routes serving these stops, providing a total of 523 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 226 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency is 74 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to about 43 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Baxter is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Baxter faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 53% (~1,129 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 57.9%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 11.2 and 10.1% of residents respectively. However, 60.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. Baxter has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.5% (459 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Baxter is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Baxter's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.6% of its population born in Australia as of the 2016 Census. Citizenship stood at 90.4%, and English speakers at home were 95.2%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 40.4% of Baxter's population.

Notably, the 'Other' religious category was overrepresented at 0.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.3%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Baxter were English (31.9%), Australian (30.5%), and Irish (9.0%). Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.4% versus 1.8% regionally, Polish at 0.8% versus 0.6%, and Scottish at 8.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.0%.

Baxter's median age exceeds the national pattern

Baxter has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Comparing Baxter's demographics with Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented at 14.4%, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.7%. From 2021 to present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.5% to 8.0% of Baxter's population, and the 35-44 cohort has risen from 11.6% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 16.8% to 15.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Baxter's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 131 people (77%), reaching 303 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 74% of total population growth, reflecting Baxter's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 25-34 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.