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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Baxter has an estimated 2,208 residents, up from 2,166 at the 2021 Census — a change of 42 people, or 1.9%. That puts 223 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to AreaSearch's evaluation of wider ABS demographic releases alongside new addresses confirmed following the Census, the suburb of Baxter has an estimated population of approximately 2,208 as of Aug 2026. This represents an addition of 42 people (1.9%) relative to the 2,166 people counted in the 2021 Census. AreaSearch established this figure of 2,208 residents by reviewing the ABS June 2025 ERP release together with 14 validated new addresses recorded after the census date. With a density of 222 persons per square kilometer, the locality offers generous living room and capacity for future expansion.
The suburb of Baxter recorded 1.9% growth post-census, trailing the wider SA3 area (2.0%) by merely 0.1 percentage points to maintain steady demographic momentum. Natural increase served as the primary growth engine, accounting for roughly 52.0% of recent population gains. Projections for SA2 locations rely on ABS/Geoscience Australia models published in 2024 using 2022 as a base, supplemented by the Victorian State Government's 2023 Regional/LGA figures adjusted through weighted aggregation to SA2 levels where required. Age cohort trajectories derived from these aggregates are extended across all locations between 2032 and 2041. Looking forward, the suburb of Baxter is projected to experience growth slightly below the median of areas assessed by AreaSearch, expanding by 243 persons to 2041 under SA2 aggregated forecasts, which equates to an overall rise of 11.0% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
34 new dwellings have been approved in Baxter over the past five years, an average of 6 a year. That is 1.1 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 1, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Examining ABS residential approval figures across statistical boundaries, AreaSearch notes that Baxter has recorded an average of roughly 6 dwelling approvals annually, accumulating to approximately 34 homes over the preceding 5 financial years. During FY-25 to date, 1 approvals have been logged. With population easing in recent times, new building activity has comfortably matched local requirements to maintain a balanced residential market, whilst approved builds average an estimated construction value of $676,000, pointing to targeted development in the upper-tier segment. Concurrently, commercial consents have reached $2.0 million this financial year, reflecting muted commercial building activity.
Per capita residential building in Baxter trails Greater Melbourne significantly, sitting 78.0% below regional average per person. Such subdued building activity tends to underpin capital values and buyer interest across established stock. Construction rates also sit well under the national pace, indicating a mature locality with potential physical building restrictions. Moreover, dwelling consents have consisted entirely of separate houses, maintaining the neighborhood's low-density profile and appealing to purchasers seeking standalone living. A ratio of 2184 people per dwelling approval underscores the subdued development pace. Demographic projections suggest that Baxter will add 243 residents through to 2041 relative to the most recent quarterly figures from AreaSearch. Should current construction volumes persist, housing supply could lag population growth, heightening buyer demand and potentially fueling stronger capital appreciation.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Baxter
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 6 current infrastructure and development projects inside Baxter, worth an estimated $253 million. A further 84 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $10.6 billion. 23 are already under construction and 29 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Community outcomes are heavily shaped by civil works, major developments, and public planning programs. AreaSearch has pinpointed 10 initiatives poised to impact the locality, notably the Somerville Police Station, Somerville Residential Growth Area, Somerville Recreation Centre, and the Somerville Central Shopping Centre Expansion.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Somerville Police Station
A purpose-built 2500-square metre police facility designed by Baldasso Cortese Architects to support the growing Western Port region. The building features a distinctive Corten steel upper facade with folded panels forming a five-pointed star to represent Victoria Police values. It accommodates 150 staff and houses units including the Uniform Branch, Highway Patrol, and Crime Scene Unit, alongside a gymnasium and emergency management conference facilities.
Somerville Central Shopping Centre Expansion
The Somerville Central expansion involved the redevelopment of the existing site into a sub-regional shopping hub. The center now spans approximately 16,521sqm of gross lettable area and is anchored by major tenants including Coles and Target, complemented by approximately 40 specialty retailers. The project significantly enhanced local retail offerings and improved parking infrastructure with approximately 650 spaces to serve the Mornington Peninsula community.
Stotts Hill Estate
Premium residential land subdivision by Pask delivering 44 lots in a hillside setting at Frankston South. Lots range from 512m2 to 1,369m2 across three tree-lined loop roads, with elevated northern boundary sites and split-level opportunities to the south. The estate is titled, with civil works complete and construction underway; the current release is the final stage of lots remaining for sale. Marketing is by Oliver Hume, with design guidelines published by the developer.
Somerville Residential Growth Area
Strategic residential planning and growth framework for Somerville township under Mornington Peninsula Planning Scheme Amendment C219morn and the Somerville Township Structure Plan. The framework guides incremental housing delivery, neighborhood character preservation, and infrastructure coordination within the urban growth boundary. As of 2026, the amendment package remains with the Victorian Department of Transport and Planning / Minister for Planning for formal consideration.
Somerville Recreation Centre
The Somerville Recreation Centre is a state-of-the-art multi-purpose venue featuring a four-court multi-sport stadium, fitness facilities, and multi-purpose community rooms. Rebuilt following a fire in 2016, the facility now includes modern change rooms, ancillary accommodation for fitness, and a childcare centre, serving the health and sporting needs of the Mornington Peninsula region.
Somerville Hotel Renovation
Comprehensive renovation and refurbishment of a heritage-listed hotel originally constructed in the early 1900s. The project involved modernizing the front bar with an integrated courtyard, stripping the back wall to its original heritage brick, and installing a timber bar top for an industrial aesthetic. Facilities include a family bistro featuring Graziers steaks, a sports bar with a brand-new TAB, and flexible function spaces accommodating 20 to 80 guests.
Somerville Railway Station Upgrade
Comprehensive upgrade of the Somerville railway station on the Stony Point Line. The project delivered a new station building, platform improvements for enhanced safety and accessibility, and expanded car parking facilities to support the growing Western Port community.
Mount Eliza Landfill Capping Rehabilitation Works
Rehabilitation of the closed landfill cap and stormwater system across North and South Regional Parks in Mount Eliza. The works include cap thickening, stormwater swale construction, outfall infrastructure, and extensive revegetation to ensure full EPA Victoria compliance.
1,222 residents of Baxter are employed, from a labour force of 1,270. Unemployment sits at 3.8%, with participation at 67.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.3% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 1,962, about 89% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Baxter maintains an even distribution of blue and white collar workers, marked by substantial representation across the building trades, a jobless rate of just 3.8%, and annual employment gains of 0.8% according to AreaSearch's statistical aggregations. By March 2026, employed locals numbered 1,222, with unemployment tracking 1.0% under the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8%, while the labor participation rate reached 67.2% compared to 70.1% across Greater Melbourne. Census records indicated that 14.8% of employed residents worked from home, a metric influenced by pandemic-related restrictions. Local workers are primarily concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.
Building and construction shows particular prominence, with local representation reaching 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical roles account for only 4.7% of resident employment, trailing the 10.1% observed across Greater Melbourne. Comparing Census workplace counts against resident numbers indicates constrained local job opportunities within the immediate boundary. Synthesising broader ABS and SALM figures, AreaSearch records a 0.8% rise in employment alongside a 0.5% expansion in the workforce over the 12-month period, lowering the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Over the same timeframe, Greater Melbourne registered job growth of 2.1% and labor supply gains of 2.3%, accompanied by a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. National outlooks from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide context on potential local trajectories over five and ten-year horizons. Across Australia, workforce numbers are anticipated to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though industry-specific rates vary. Aligning these sectoral projections with Baxter's industry profile suggests local job numbers could increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (note this is an indicative weighted projection excluding local demographic shifts).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Baxter is $1,493 a week (about $78,000 a year), with median personal income at $774 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $50,852 a year against an average of $65,776. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Aggregated postcode figures from the ATO for financial year 2023 indicate that the suburb of Baxter recorded a median taxpayer earnings figure of $50,852 and an average of $65,776. These amounts sit marginally below national benchmarks and trail Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year 2023, modelled values reach approximately $55,744 (median) and $72,104 (average) as of March 2026. Across 2021 Census returns, local household, family, and individual incomes fell into middle-to-lower tiers, spanning the 35th to 43rd percentiles.
The primary earnings cohort covers 33.5% of earners (739 residents) receiving $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, closely matching the 32.8% seen across the surrounding territory. Affordability pressures remain elevated, leaving 83.3% of earnings after housing outlays and ranking at the 35th percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Baxter had 901 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 87% detached houses and 0% apartments. 48% are owned with a mortgage, 17% rented and 35% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $360 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,690 a month. Rent absorbs 24.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 26.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Census records show that standalone houses made up 87.3% of residences in Baxter, with semi-detached, apartments, and other dwellings comprising 12.7%, compared against Melbourne metro distributions of 67.9% and 32.1% respectively. Fully owned properties accounted for 35.0% of homes, substantially exceeding the metropolitan rate, while 48.3% carried a mortgage and 16.8% were rented. Median monthly mortgage commitments stood at $1,690, compared to $2,000 across Melbourne metro, while median weekly rent was $360, below the metropolitan figure of $390. Across Australia, the suburb's mortgage obligations sit under the national benchmark of $1,863, and weekly rents remain below the $375 national standard.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Baxter counted 901 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.3 people each. 26% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 31% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the majority of domestic arrangements at 66.9%, consisting of couples without children (27.4%), couples with children (26.4%), and single parent families (12.3%). The remaining 33.1% are non-family residences, dominated by lone person households at 31.0% alongside group households at 1.6%. The typical household size stands at 2.3 people, tracking below the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
14.7% of adults in Baxter hold a university qualification, including 10.7% with a bachelor degree and 2.2% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 32.5% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 197 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 992 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary attainment in the locality sits below wider benchmarks, with university graduates representing 14.7% of residents compared to 37.0% across Greater Melbourne. Bachelor degrees comprise 10.7% of credentials, with postgraduate awards at 2.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational qualifications are prominent, as 42.9% of community members aged 15+ hold technical credentials, including certificates (32.5%) and advanced diplomas (10.4%). Enrolment in structured learning encompasses 24.0% of local inhabitants. Within this group, primary education accounts for 7.8%, secondary schooling comprises 5.5%, and tertiary courses involve 3.5%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Baxter reaches 13 stops on 5 routes, timetabled for about 800 services a week. The typical home sits about 230 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.5 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Baxter's passenger network features 13 active transport stops encompassing local bus connections. A network of 5 routes operates across these stops, generating 796 weekly passenger trips. Access to transit is favorable, with an average distance of 226 meters to the closest stop. Outbound travel characterizes the locality, with private vehicles serving as the primary choice for 94% of trips. Households maintain an average of 1.5 motor vehicles, above regional norms, while 14.8% of workers performed duties from home at the 2021 Census during a period shaped by COVID-19 circumstances. Network scheduling delivers an average of 113 trips per day across the collective route system, representing approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
60.7% of residents in Baxter report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 81% of areas nationally. 7.2% need daily assistance with core activities, and 52.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.4 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators compiled by AreaSearch regarding mortality and chronic conditions highlight notable well-being considerations for Baxter across younger and mature cohorts alike. Meanwhile, private health insurance coverage extends to roughly 53% of the community (~1,166 people), which slightly exceeds the average SA2 territory but trails the 56.7% reported across Greater Melbourne. Prevalent medical diagnoses within the population include mental health conditions (11.2%) and arthritis (10.1%), whereas 60.7% of residents reported having no long-term health conditions, below the 72.6% benchmark for Greater Melbourne. Health burdens remain evident among working-age individuals. Residents aged 65 and over make up 21.5% of the community (474 people), outpacing the 15.1% share in Greater Melbourne, with senior health outcomes aligning broadly with national general population measures.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Baxter is largely Australian-born, at 85.6% of residents, with 4.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.9%) and Australian (30.5%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity metrics for Baxter sit below broader averages, with Australian-born residents comprising 85.6% of the population, Australian citizens making up 90.4%, and 95.2% using solely English at home. Christianity forms the dominant religious affiliation, encompassing 40.4% of residents. The Other group represents 0.6% of the community, compared to 2.3% recorded throughout Greater Melbourne. Ancestral backgrounds are led by English (31.9%), Australian (30.5%), and Irish (9.0%), with both English and Australian lineages substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%. Additional ethnic representations include Scottish heritage at 8.5% (compared to 5.6% regionally), Dutch background at 2.4% (against 1.2% regionally), and Polish ancestry at 0.8% (matching 0.8% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Baxter is 40. 26.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The demographic profile of the suburb of Baxter leans toward mature age brackets. Updates as of August 2026 indicate that persons aged 65+ comprise 21.5% of the population, exceeding the 15.1% proportion across Greater Melbourne, whereas individuals aged 0 - 24 represent 26.2%, below the metropolitan mark of 30.5%. AreaSearch estimates the median age at 40 as at August 2026, identical to the 2021 Census outcome and 3 years older than the 37 recorded across Greater Melbourne at that Census. Since the Census, the share of residents in retirement and elderly cohorts expanded from 19.2% to an estimated 21.5%.
By 2041, senior brackets are forecast to represent the bulk of population expansion, adding 203 residents (43%) to reach 678, while younger adults, children, and middle-aged brackets are expected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Baxter
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 2 months ago all 6 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 14 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (2,166 at the 2021 Census → 2,208 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20169). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.