Frankston South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston South's population was 18,801 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it had increased to around 19,204, a rise of 403 people (2.1%). This growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 19,214 in June 2024 and the validation of 113 new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 1,319 persons per square kilometer. Frankston South's growth rate of 2.1% since the Census is within 1.0 percentage point of the SA4 region's 3.1%, indicating strong fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Frankston South is projected to increase by 2,011 persons, reflecting a total increase of 10.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frankston South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frankston South averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals annually over recent years. Between the financial years FY21 and FY25217 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved in FY26 as of now. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply has been meeting demand, providing good options for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $553,000, indicating a focus on the premium market by developers. This financial year, $11.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, implying balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston South shows around 75% of the construction activity per person. Nationally, it ranks at approximately the 46th percentile among assessed areas, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years.

New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to more compact options. This shift reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. Frankston South has approximately 370 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 2,021 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Frankston South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include the 59 Culcairn Drive Townhouse Development in Frankston South, the Peninsula Link Freeway project, the Towerhill Road Schools Precinct Shared Path development, and the Frankston Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant:.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Frankston South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Frankston South has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services. Its unemployment rate was 2.1% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. As of September 2025, 9,976 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction is particularly specialized, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 2.8% versus the regional average of 5.2%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force increased by 2.6%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Frankston South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by similar rates, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Frankston South SA2 had higher incomes than the national average. The median income was $55,710 and the average was $68,441. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,484 (median) and $76,763 (average), based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Frankston South's household, family, and personal incomes were around the 64th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 28.5% of locals (5,473 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with the region where this cohort represents 32.8%. Notably, 31.8% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 14.4% of income, and residents rank within the 71st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Frankston South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frankston South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.0% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 76.9% houses and 23.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston South was higher at 38.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.5% and rented dwellings at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Frankston South was recorded at $420, higher than Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Frankston South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 75.5% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households making up 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Frankston South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.3%, exceeding the SA3 average of 21.6% and the SA4 region's rate of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 21.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.4% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston South has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 2,165 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 268 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 309 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston South faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 54%, covering about 10,312 people, compared to 51.2% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively. About 67.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016 (the latest available data), 22.4% of residents are aged 65 and over, totaling 4,305 people, which is higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Frankston South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston South's population shows cultural diversity similar to the broader area, with 77.7% born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 90.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 42.8%. Judaism is slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.3% regionally.

The top three ancestral groups are English (31.5%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Notably, Dutch (1.9%) and Hungarian (0.4%) are equally represented as in Greater Melbourne, while Scottish (8.7%) is slightly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 7.9%.

Frankston South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Frankston South's median age, at 44 years, exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years and significantly surpasses the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.0% of Frankston South's population compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 6.6%. As per the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.9% to 12.2%, whereas the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 8.3% to 6.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Frankston South's age profile. Notably, the 75-84 group is expected to grow by 42%, reaching 2,186 people from its current total of 1,538. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 63% of projected growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.