Frankston South
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston South's population was 18,801 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, it is estimated to be around 19,204, reflecting an increase of 403 people (2.1%) since the 2021 Census. This change is inferred from ABS estimates; 19,214 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,319 persons per square kilometer, above national averages. Frankston South's growth rate of 2.1% since census is within 1.1 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.2%). Overseas migration primarily drove this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Frankston South is expected to have a population increase of just below the median of national areas, expanding by 2,011 persons (10.5% total increase over 17 years).

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frankston South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frankston South averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, with 217 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25 and six more approved in FY-26 as of now. Despite population decline in recent years, new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $678,000, indicating a focus on the premium market by developers.

Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $11.6 million, showing moderate commercial development levels. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston South records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks in the 46th percentile nationally for assessed areas, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing properties. Development activity has picked up recently. New developments consist of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points. This shift marks a significant departure from the current housing pattern of 86.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

Frankston South has approximately 370 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections indicate an addition of 2,021 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Frankston South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are: 59 Culcairn Drive Townhouse Development in Frankston South, Stotts Hill Estate, Peninsula Link Freeway, and Towerhill Road Schools Precinct Shared Path. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Frankston South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Frankston South has a highly educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 3.7%. As of June 2025, 10,010 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% and workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for local residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with a notable specialization in construction at 1.4 times the regional level. However, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence with 2.8% employment compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

The area's predominantly residential nature suggests limited local employment opportunities, supported by Census data showing fewer working residents than residents overall. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 3.7%, labour force grew by 4.6%, and unemployment rose by 0.9 percentage points. Comparing this to Greater Melbourne, employment growth was slightly higher at 3.7% vs 3.5%, but unemployment rose more significantly (0.9% vs 0.5%). State-level data from Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National job forecasts from May 2025 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Frankston South's current employment mix suggests local growth could approximate these national figures, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows Frankston South had a median taxpayer income of $55,710 and an average income of $68,441. These figures are above the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since June 2022, estimated current incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $61,342 (median) and $75,360 (average). Census 2021 data indicates Frankston South's household, family, and personal incomes cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant with 28.5% of residents, consistent with broader metropolitan trends at 32.8%. Strong economic indicators include 31.8% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting high consumer spending. Housing expenses account for 14.4% of income, and residents rank in the 71st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Frankston South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frankston South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 86.0% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 76.9% houses and 23.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston South was at 38.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent was recorded at $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Frankston South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 75.5% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Frankston South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 30.3% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA3 area average of 21.6% and the SA4 region rate of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 34.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 13.6% and certificates make up 21.0%.

Educational participation is high at 29.4%, including 10.5% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education. Frankston South's five schools have a combined enrollment of 1,764 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1046) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes two primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents stand at 9.2, below the regional average of 14.8, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston South has 65 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 2,165 weekly passenger journeys. The accessibility of transport in the area is deemed good, with residents on average being located 268 metres from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 309 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston South faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 54% of its total population (~10,312 people) has private health cover, compared to 51.2% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.7% and 7.9% of residents respectively. 67.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 22.4% of Frankston South's residents are aged 65 and over (4,305 people), which is higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Frankston South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston South's population, born in Australia, was 77.7%, with 90.2% being citizens and 90.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 42.8%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.3%.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Dutch (1.9% vs regional 1.8%) and Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.4%) were notably overrepresented, while Scottish was slightly overrepresented at 8.7% (vs regional 7.9%).

Frankston South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Frankston South's median age is 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group comprises 8.0% of Frankston South's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 6.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 10.9% to 12.2%. However, the 25-34 cohort decreased from 8.3% to 6.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Frankston South's age profile. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 42%, reaching 2,186 people from the current 1,538. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are expected to comprise 63% of the population increase. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.