Frankston South
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston South's population was 18,801 as of the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it had increased to around 19,204, reflecting a growth of 403 people (2.1%) since the Census date. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,214 in June 2024 and an additional 113 validated new addresses since the Census. The population density was 1,319 persons per square kilometer as of November 2025, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston South's growth rate of 2.1% since the Census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, Frankston South is expected to increase by just below the median of national areas, reaching 20,815 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 10.5% over the 17 years from November 2025.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frankston South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frankston South averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21-FY25217 homes were approved, with 11 more approved in FY26 so far. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, offering good choices for buyers.

The average expected construction cost of new homes is $553,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $11.6 million, showing balanced commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston South has around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 46th percentile nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. However, building activity has accelerated recently. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, offering choices across price ranges.

This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 86.0% houses) indicates decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. The location has approximately 370 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Frankston South is expected to grow by 2,021 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and potentially driving price growth.

Frankston South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the area's performance significantly. These include the 59 Culcairn Drive Townhouse Development in Frankston South, Stotts Hill Estate, Peninsula Link Freeway, and Towerhill Road Schools Precinct Shared Path. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Frankston South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Frankston South has a highly educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%. As of June 2025, 10,010 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% and workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area specializes in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, but has lower representation in transport, postal & warehousing at 2.8% versus the regional average of 5.2%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, while labour force grew by 4.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Frankston South. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Frankston South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Frankston South has higher median and average incomes compared to national averages. The median income is $55,710 while the average stands at $68,441. In contrast, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022 until September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $62,484 (median) and $76,763 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Frankston South cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 28.5% of locals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, aligning with regional trends where this cohort represents 32.8%. A significant 31.8% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 14.4% of income, and residents rank within the 71st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Frankston South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frankston South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.0% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston South stood at 38.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (44.5%) or rented (16.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Frankston South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.5% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households making up 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Frankston South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Frankston South's educational profile is notable regionally, with 30.3% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, surpassing the SA3 area average of 21.6% and the SA4 regional average of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (21.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.5% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education. Frankston South's five schools have a combined enrollment of 1,764 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1046) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes two primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (9.2) are below the regional average (14.8), suggesting some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note: for schools marked 'n/a' regarding enrolments, please refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston South has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 2,165 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is considered good, with residents on average being located 268 meters from the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency across all routes averages at 309 trips, which equates to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston South faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (~10,312 people), compared to 51.2% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively, while 67.4% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, the area has 22.4% of residents aged 65 and over (4,305 people), which is higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Frankston South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston South's population, born in Australia, was 77.7%, with 90.2% being citizens and 90.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 42.8%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Dutch (1.9%) was notably overrepresented, as was Hungarian (0.4%) and Scottish (8.7%).

Frankston South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Frankston South's median age is 44, surpassing Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.0% of Frankston South's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's figure. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 6.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's percentage. According to the 2021 Census, Frankston South's 15-24 age group grew from 10.9% to 12.2% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort decreased from 8.3% to 6.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Frankston South's age profile. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 42%, reaching 2,186 people from the current 1,538. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 63% of projected population growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.