Carrum - Patterson Lakes
Statistical Area - sa2

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carrum - Patterson Lakes' population is around 12,468 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 436 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,032 people. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 12,445 in June 2024 and an additional 79 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,142 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 3.6% growth since census positions it competitively with other SA3 areas, demonstrating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate above median growth, with the area expected to grow by 1,721 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carrum - Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Between FY21 and FY25196 dwellings were approved, with another 3 recorded so far in FY26. Over the past five financial years, an average of 0.6 new residents per year has been associated with each new home, suggesting that supply is meeting or exceeding demand.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $730,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY26, there have been $29.6 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum-Patterson Lakes records approximately 59% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 55th percentile nationally. This lower activity suggests market maturity and potential development constraints. New development consists of 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living and more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has a population density of around 282 people per approval, indicating a low-density area. Future projections estimate an addition of 1,698 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects with potential impact on this area: Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Lathams Road Upgrade, Ballarto Road Upgrade. Relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominently represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 6.2%.

At this time, 6,939 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, construction employment levels were at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services had a limited presence with 7.7% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, labour force increased by 1.4%, while employment declined by 1.1%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 2.4 percentage points. For comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5%. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year (adding 39,880 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carrum - Patterson Lakes' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Carrum-Patterson Lakes' income level is very high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in Carrum-Patterson Lakes is $58,180 and the average income stands at $75,398, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $64,062 (median) and $83,021 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Carrum-Patterson Lakes cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 32.0% of the community (3,989 individuals), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 58th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carrum-Patterson Lakes dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum-Patterson Lakes was at 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.0% and rented ones at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in the area was $420, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's figure of $410. Nationally, Carrum-Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,100 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 69.3% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Carrum - Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 26.3%, substantially below the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (24.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education. Patterson Lakes Primary School and Carrum Primary School collectively serve 882 students while the suburb demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1063). Both schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 7.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.7, resulting in many families traveling for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the area reveals that there are 58 active transport stops operating within Carrum - Patterson Lakes. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. There are 7 individual routes servicing these stops, which collectively provide 3,377 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 204 meters from the nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages 482 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Carrum - Patterson Lakes residents.

The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 57% (~7,119 people) have private health cover, which is very high. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4% each of the population. About 69.9% report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.4% in Greater Melbourne. There are 22.8% (2,842 people) residents aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 19.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum-Patterson Lakes had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.6% of its population born overseas and 16.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrum-Patterson Lakes, accounting for 47.5% of residents. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.3% versus 1.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (27.9%), Australian (23.5%), and Irish (8.6%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Russian was overrepresented at 0.7% (regional figure is 1.0%), Hungarian at 0.5% (compared to 0.4%), and Greek at 2.6% (versus 3.3%).

Carrum - Patterson Lakes hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 12.4% of its population compared to Greater Melbourne. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up only 9.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 6.0% to 7.6%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.1%. However, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 15.4% to 13.6%, and the 25 to 34 group decreased from 10.8% to 9.2%. Demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carrum - Patterson Lakes's age profile by 2041. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 72%, adding 689 people, reaching a total of 1,641 from its current figure of 951. This aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 79% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.