Carrum - Patterson Lakes

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carrum-Patterson Lakes' population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is 12,516 as of May 2026. This reflects a growth of 484 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,032. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 12,478 in June 2025 and an additional 92 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,150 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 4.0% growth since census is within 2.7 percentage points of its SA3 area (6.7%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the ABS data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth, with the area expected to increase by 1,634 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 12.8% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carrum - Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 196 homes. As of FY26, 21 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were reported between FY21 and FY25. This suggests that new construction is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $541,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY26, $29.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum-Patterson Lakes has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally, suggesting an established area with potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 43% standalone homes and 57% attached dwellings, favouring denser development which appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The area has around 282 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density characteristic.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carrum-Patterson Lakes is projected to add 1,596 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: The Dell by Stockland, Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Carrum - Patterson Lakes has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. As of December 2025, 6834 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.4%. This is 0.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, but workforce participation is similar at 69.9%.

According to Census responses, 29.0% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with construction being particularly notable at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 7.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.1% while labour force decreased by 0.4%, causing a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4% and labour force expand by 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum-Patterson Lakes' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Carrum - Patterson Lakes SA2 had median income among taxpayers of $61,676 and average income at $79,652. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes would be approximately $67,609 (median) and $87,315 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Carrum - Patterson Lakes cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Income analysis shows that 32.0% of the population (4,005 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Carrum - Patterson Lakes as per the latest Census data, 54.5% of dwellings were houses while 45.5% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area stood at 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.0% and rented ones at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in the area was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carrum - Patterson Lakes' median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 than the Australian average of $1,863, and median weekly rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.3% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up 30.7%, comprising 28.5% lone person households and 2.2% group households. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carrum - Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials held by residents aged 15+ stand at 36.6%, with advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 24.1%. Educational participation is high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 7.9% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has 59 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that collectively facilitate 2,817 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically situated about 204 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outside the area, primarily using cars (91%). Train usage stands at 5%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.4.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents work from home, with this figure standing at 29%. Service frequency averages 402 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Carrum - Patterson Lakes, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age groups exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is high, at approximately 58% of the total population (~7,309 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively. 69.9% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 23.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,952 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, with national rankings largely in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum - Patterson Lakes was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum-Patterson Lakes exhibited higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.6% of its residents born overseas and 16.1% using a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 47.5% of the population. Notably, Judaism had a higher representation in Carrum-Patterson Lakes at 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.9%), Australian (23.5%), and Irish (8.6%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.5% versus the regional average of 0.3%, Russian at 0.7% compared to 0.4%, and Greek at 2.6%.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has a median age of 44, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 12.8% of its population compared to Greater Melbourne. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up only 8.9%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.0% to 7.8%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.2%. However, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 15.4% to 13.1%, and the 25-34 group dropped from 10.8% to 8.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Carrum-Patterson Lakes's age profile. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 61% (601 people), reaching 1,583 from 981. Those aged 65 and above will account for 77% of the projected population growth. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.