Carrum - Patterson Lakes

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carrum - Patterson Lakes' population is around 12,476 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 444 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,032 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,445 in June 2024 and an additional 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,143 persons per square kilometer. Carrum - Patterson Lakes' growth rate of 3.7% since census positions it within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 68.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth, with the area expected to increase by 1,721 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carrum - Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 196 homes. As of FY26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, each year sees around 0.6 new residents per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. This pace matches or exceeds demand, providing more options for buyers and contributing to population growth that could surpass current projections.

The average construction value of new properties is $541,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY26, $29.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum - Patterson Lakes has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally, suggesting an established area with potential planning constraints. New building activity comprises 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% attached dwellings, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 282 people per dwelling approval, it shows characteristics of a low-density area.

Future projections estimate Carrum - Patterson Lakes will add approximately 1,690 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and driving price growth.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: The Dell by Stockland, Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Carrum - Patterson Lakes has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 5.9%.

As of September 2025, 6,826 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly high at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical employment is lower at 7.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force increased by 0.4% while employment decreased by 0.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.0%. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, with growth rates varying between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carrum-Patterson Lakes' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on 2022 financial year, Carrum - Patterson Lakes SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $58,180 and an average level of $75,398. This is higher than the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively for Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, estimated median income would be approximately $65,255 and average income around $84,566. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Carrum - Patterson Lakes are at the 60th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 32.0% of the population (3,992 individuals) have incomes between $1,500 and $2,999. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Carrum - Patterson Lakes, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum - Patterson Lakes stood at 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.0% and rented dwellings at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below the Melbourne metro average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in the area was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Carrum - Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 69.3% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with Greater Melbourne's average.

The educational profile of Carrum - Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 24.1%. Educational participation is high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 7.9% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has 58 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are covered by 7 individual routes, collectively handling 3,377 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 204 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 482 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Carrum - Patterson Lakes residents.

The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 57% (~7,123 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is very high. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4% and 7.4% of residents respectively. About 69.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 2021, 22.8% (2,844 people) of residents are aged 65 and over, which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors in the area are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum - Patterson Lakes was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.6% of its population born overseas and 16.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrum-Patterson Lakes, accounting for 47.5% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.3% versus 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.9%), Australian (23.5%), and Irish (8.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Hungarian is overrepresented at 0.5% (regional average: 0.4%), Russian at 0.7% (1.0%), and Greek at 2.6% (3.3%).

Carrum - Patterson Lakes hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group is strongly represented at 12.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.0% to 7.6%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.9% to 11.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.4% to 13.6%, and the 25 to 34 group has dropped from 10.8% to 9.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Carrum - Patterson Lakes' age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 72%, adding 689 people and reaching 1,641 from 951. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 79% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.