Carrum - Patterson Lakes
Statistical Area - sa2

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carrum - Patterson Lakes' population, as of November 2025, is approximately 12,476. This figure represents an increase of 444 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,032. The growth can be inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,445 in June 2024 and an additional 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,143 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 3.7% growth since the census is within 2.0 percentage points of its SA3 area (5.7%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, an above median population growth is projected for Carrum - Patterson Lakes, with an expected increase of 1,721 persons by 2041 based on the latest numbers. This reflects a total increase of 13.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carrum - Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 196 homes. As of FY2026 so far, 7 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents arriving per new home in this area over the past five financial years (FY2021 to FY2025) is around 0.6. This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with or even outstripping demand, providing buyers with more options and facilitating population growth that could exceed current projections.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings in the area is approximately $541,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $29.6 million in commercial development approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum - Patterson Lakes records about 59% of the building activity per person and places among the 55th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This lower level of activity reflects market maturity and may suggest potential development constraints. The current new development composition is approximately 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% attached dwellings, indicating a focus on higher-density living which can provide more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

With around 282 people per approval, Carrum - Patterson Lakes reflects a low density area. Future projections estimate that Carrum - Patterson Lakes will add approximately 1,690 residents by the year 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, The Dell by Stockland, Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Carrum - Patterson Lakes shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with the construction sector notably represented. Its unemployment rate as of June 2025 is 6.2%.

In this month, 6939 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a particularly high concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence with 7.7% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. In the 12 months prior, labour force increased by 1.4% while employment declined by 1.1%, raising unemployment rate by 2.4 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carrum-Patterson Lakes' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Carrum-Patterson Lakes' income level is very high nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Its median income among taxpayers is $58,180 and average income stands at $75,398, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $65,255 (median) and $84,566 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Carrum-Patterson Lakes cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that the $1,500-$2,999 earnings band captures 32.0% of the community (3,992 individuals), aligning with metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, placing disposable income at the 58th percentile and area's SEIFA income ranking in the 6th decile.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carrum-Patterson Lakes' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Melbourne metro's figures were 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum-Patterson Lakes was higher at 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.0% and rented ones at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in the area was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Carrum-Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 vs Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 69.3% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Carrum - Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 24.1%. Educational participation is high, with 25.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 7.9% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary.

Patterson Lakes Primary School and Carrum Primary School serve a total of 882 students and have above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1063). Both schools focus on primary education only, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 7.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.7, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has 58 active public transport stops. These are served by 7 routes offering a total of 3,377 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average living 204 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 482 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Carrum - Patterson Lakes residents.

Prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~7,123 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively. 69.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,844 people), which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum-Patterson Lakes has a higher cultural diversity than most other local areas, with 25.6% of its population born overseas and 16.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrum-Patterson Lakes, making up 47.5% of the population. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented in Carrum-Patterson Lakes compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.3% versus 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.9%), Australian (23.5%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, Russian (0.7%) and Hungarian (0.5%) populations are higher in Carrum-Patterson Lakes compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively. Similarly, the Greek population is slightly lower at 2.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.3%.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The strongest representation in Carrum - Patterson Lakes is seen in the 65-74 age group at 12.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.0% to 7.6%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.1%. However, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.4% to 13.6%, and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 10.8% to 9.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carrum - Patterson Lakes's age profile. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 72%, adding 689 people and reaching 1,641 from the current 951. This aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 79% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.