Carrum - Patterson Lakes

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carrum - Patterson Lakes's population is around 12,485 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 453 people (3.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,032 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,445 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 85 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,145 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum - Patterson Lakes's 3.8% growth since the census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth of national areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 1,721 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 13.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carrum - Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has averaged around 39 new dwelling approvals each year, totalling 196 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of only 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $541,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $29.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Carrum - Patterson Lakes has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 54th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 282 people per dwelling approval, Carrum - Patterson Lakes shows characteristics of a low density area.

Future projections show Carrum - Patterson Lakes adding 1,681 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 5 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include The Dell by Stockland, Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Carrum - Patterson Lakes has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carrum - Patterson Lakes possesses a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 5.4%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,834 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.6% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (68.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 29.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 7.7% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 0.1% alongside a labour force decrease of 0.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Carrum - Patterson Lakes. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carrum - Patterson Lakes's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Carrum - Patterson Lakes SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $61,676 with the average level standing at $79,652. This is among the highest in Australia and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $66,764 (median) and $86,223 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Carrum - Patterson Lakes cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals 32.0% of the population (3,995 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 57th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Carrum - Patterson Lakes, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Carrum - Patterson Lakes was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.0%) or rented (21.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,100, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Carrum - Patterson Lakes's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.3% of all households, comprising 30.1% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carrum - Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (26.3%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (24.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 59 active transport stops operating within Carrum - Patterson Lakes, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 2,817 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 204 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 5% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 29.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 402 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Carrum - Patterson Lakes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show a low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 58% of the total population (~7,291 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4% and 7.4% of residents, respectively, while 69.9% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,975 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum - Patterson Lakes was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum - Patterson Lakes was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 25.6% of its population born overseas and 16.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Carrum - Patterson Lakes is Christianity, which makes up 47.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Carrum - Patterson Lakes are English, comprising 27.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 23.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 8.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Hungarian is notably overrepresented at 0.5% of Carrum - Patterson Lakes (vs 0.3% regionally), Russian at 0.7% (vs 0.4%) and Greek at 2.6% (vs 2.7%).

Carrum - Patterson Lakes hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

With a median age of 44, Carrum - Patterson Lakes notably exceeds the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. The 65 - 74 age group shows strong representation at 12.9% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.7%. Following the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.0% to 8.1% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.4% to 13.1% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 10.8% to 8.7%. Demographic modeling suggests Carrum - Patterson Lakes's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 62% (629 people), reaching 1,641 from 1,011. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 76% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.