Carrum - Patterson Lakes

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carrum-Patterson Lakes' population is approximately 12,485 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 453 people, a 3.8% rise since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 12,032. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 12,445 in June 2024 and an additional 85 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a density ratio of 2,145 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum-Patterson Lakes' growth rate of 3.8% since the census is within 1.8 percentage points of its SA3 area's 5.6%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.6% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project above-median population growth nationally; Carrum-Patterson Lakes is expected to increase by 1,721 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carrum - Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Carrum - Patterson Lakes averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 196 homes. As of FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling were constructed between FY21 and FY25. This rate matches or exceeds demand, providing more buying options and facilitating population growth that may surpass current projections.

The average construction value of new properties is $541,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY26, $29.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum - Patterson Lakes has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally, reflecting its established nature and potential planning constraints. New building activity comprises 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% attached dwellings, catering to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers seeking accessible options. With approximately 282 people per dwelling approval, the area exhibits low-density characteristics.

By 2041, Carrum - Patterson Lakes is projected to add 1,681 residents (AreaSearch Q3 estimate). If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects likely affecting this region. Notable projects include The Dell by Stockland, Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Carrum Foreshore and Patterson River Precinct Improvements, and Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Carrum - Patterson Lakes has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 5.9% as of September 2025. In this period, 6,826 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Melbourne's by 1.3%, at 4.7%.

Workforce participation was lower, at 68.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, a high proportion of residents, 29.0%, worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly notable, with levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation, at 7.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force increased by 0.4%, while employment decreased by 0.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum - Patterson Lakes' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Carrum - Patterson Lakes SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $61,676 with the average level at $79,652. This is one of the highest in Australia compared to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $66,764 (median) and $86,223 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Carrum - Patterson Lakes cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 32.0% of the population, which consists of 3,995 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, leaving disposable income at the 57th percentile nationally and placing the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 6th decile.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carrum-Patterson Lakes' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.5% houses and 45.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum-Patterson Lakes was at 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.0% and rented ones at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $420 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carrum-Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,100 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $420 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.3% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.7%, consisting of 28.5% lone person households and 2.2% group households. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carrum - Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (24.1%). Educational participation is high at 25.1%, comprising primary education (7.9%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (4.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Carrum - Patterson Lakes shows 59 active public transport stops, all buses. These are served by 8 routes, offering 2,817 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically 204 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound due to the residential nature of the area. Cars dominate at 91%, with trains at 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

A high 29% work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 402 trips daily, or approximately 47 weekly trips per stop.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows notable results for Carrum - Patterson Lakes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both young and old age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is found to be high at approximately 58% of the total population (~7,291 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively. 69.9% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,975 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors align with national rankings, broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum - Patterson Lakes was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum-Patterson Lakes, surveyed in June 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.6% of its residents born overseas and 16.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion (47.5%), but Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Melbourne's average of 1.0%. The top ancestry groups were English (27.9%, regional avg: 20.1%), Australian (23.5%, regional avg: 18.4%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.3%), Russian (0.7% vs 0.4%), and Greek (2.6% vs 2.7%) groups were also overrepresented.

Carrum - Patterson Lakes hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Carrum - Patterson Lakes has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and significantly surpasses the national average of 38. The area shows strong representation in the 65-74 age group at 12.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.0% to 8.1% of the population, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.9% to 11.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.4% to 13.1%, and the 25 to 34 group has dropped from 10.8% to 8.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Carrum - Patterson Lakes' age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 75 to 84 group projected to grow by 62%, reaching 1,641 people from 1,011. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above contributing to 76% of the expected growth. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.