Dandenong - South

Population growth drivers in Dandenong - South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Dandenong - South's population was approximately 10,086 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure reflects a growth of 736 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,350. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: Dandenong - South had an estimated resident population of 10,032 in June 2024 and gained 143 validated new addresses after the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 187 persons per square kilometer. Dandenong - South's growth rate of 7.9% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (6.8%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Dandenong - South is projected to gain 2,339 persons by 2041, reflecting a total growth of 22.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Dandenong - South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Dandenong - South has seen approximately 27 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 137 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 0.3 new residents have arrived per year for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new properties is $214,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In FY-26, $15.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Dandenong - South records about three-quarters of the building activity per person and ranks among the 17th percentile nationally when measured by area assessed, suggesting limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This lower-than-average activity reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 55.0% standalone homes and 45.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix providing options across different price points.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Dandenong - South is 972 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 2,285 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Dandenong - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 68 projects potentially impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Webster Street Level Crossing Removal, Casey Green Estate, Glismann Road Development Plan, and Princes Highway Intersection Upgrades. The following details projects likely most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Dandenong - South lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Dandenong South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 13.3%.

Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 2.5%. In September 2025, 3,982 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 8.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lags at 51.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are manufacturing, construction, and health care & social assistance.

Manufacturing has a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence with 4.2% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. There are 6.2 workers for every resident, indicating Dandenong South functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5%, labour force grew by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 indicate national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dandenong South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Dandenong-South SA2 had an income level below the national average in financial year 2022, according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The median income among taxpayers was $45,024 and the average income stood at $51,796, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,499 (median) and $58,094 (average). Census data from 2021 showed household, family, and personal incomes in Dandenong-South fell between the 10th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis revealed that the predominant cohort was 28.4% of locals (2,864 people) in the $1,500-$2,999 income category, similar to broader trends across regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 80.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 16th percentile.

Dandenong - South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Dandenong - South, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 29 August 2016, comprised 59.9% houses and 40.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dandenong - South was at 29.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.4% and rented dwellings at 45.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of 31 December 2020, was $1,647, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $1,800 and $350 respectively, for the same period. Nationally, Dandenong - South's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, as reported on 29 February 2020, while rents are less than the national figure of $375, reported on the same date.

Dandenong - South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.8% of all households, including 34.4% couples with children, 17.9% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.2%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households at 7.2%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Dandenong - South faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 19.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational pathways account for 24.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 15.5%. Educational participation is high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates 130 active transport stops operating within Dandenong - South. These include a mix of train and bus services. The stops are serviced by 13 individual routes, collectively providing 5,024 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 717 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

Dandenong - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Dandenong - South, particularly among younger cohorts with low prevalence rates for common health conditions. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,659 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Diabetes and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 5.3% and 5.3% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 79.6%, report being completely free from medical ailments compared to 75.1% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a lower percentage of residents aged 65 and over at 13.8% (1,388 people), compared to the broader population in Greater Melbourne at 17.4%.

Dandenong - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dandenong - South has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 60.4% of its population born overseas and 73.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The dominant religion in Dandenong - South is Islam, accounting for 54.4% of residents compared to 13.1% across Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, the most represented groups are Other (53.8%), English (10.1%), and Australian (9.7%).

Notably, Macedonian ancestry is overrepresented at 2.2%, compared to 0.3% regionally, while Sri Lankan ancestry stands at 1.1% versus 1.8%, and Russian ancestry is at 0.8% compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

Dandenong - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Dandenong-South's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Dandenong-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.0%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.8%). According to post-2021 Census data, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 12.6% to 13.3%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 19.3% to 17.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Dandenong-South's age profile. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 41%, adding 450 residents to reach a total of 1,544. The 0-4 age group is projected to grow by 5%, with an increase of 36 residents.