Noble Park

Population growth drivers in Noble Park are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Noble Park is around 34,239, reflecting a growth of 1,982 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 6.1% rise from the previous population of 32,257. AreaSearch validated this estimate using the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and additional new addresses found since the Census date. The population density is approximately 3,995 persons per square kilometer, placing Noble Park in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. This high density indicates strong demand for land in the area. Noble Park's growth rate of 6.1% since the census is close to that of its SA3 area (6.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Noble Park is expected to grow by 5,298 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Noble Park when compared nationally

Noble Park has averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between fiscal years FY-21 to FY-25, around 662 homes were approved, with an additional 40 approved in FY-26 so far. The average population growth per dwelling built over these five years was approximately 0.2 people.

New construction has been matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could potentially exceed current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $399,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, there have been $38.0 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Noble Park shows comparable development activity per person, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 65.0% houses.

Noble Park reflects a low density area, with around 240 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate that Noble Park will gain approximately 5,075 residents by 2041. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Noble Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Douglas Apartments, Noble Park Revitalisation, The Woodlands Keysborough, and Noble Park Station and Level Crossing Removal. Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Noble Park shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Noble Park has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.6%.

As of June 2025, 17,217 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was lower at 56.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries included manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing had particularly high concentration, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.7% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 3.6%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Noble Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Noble Park's median income among taxpayers was $45,206 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $50,103 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. As of September 2025, current estimates suggest Noble Park's median income will be approximately $50,703 and the average income will be around $56,196, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. According to Census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Noble Park fall between the 15th and 27th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort in Noble Park spans 33.1% of locals (11,333 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to the regional distribution where 32.8% of residents fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Noble Park, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Noble Park displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Noble Park's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 65.1% houses and 34.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noble Park stood at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.5% and rented ones at 41.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Noble Park was $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, Noble Park's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Noble Park features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.2% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 21.2% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 26.4% and group households comprising 5.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Noble Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 26.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 26.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 15.5%. Educational participation is high, with 29.7% currently enrolled in formal education: 7.8% in primary, 6.5% in secondary, and 6.3% in tertiary education.

Seven schools operate within Noble Park, educating approximately 2,993 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 961) and balanced educational opportunities. The mix includes five primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (8.7) are below the regional average (15.4), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Noble Park has 87 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 different routes that facilitate 4,462 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance residents live from the nearest transport stop is 242 meters, indicating good accessibility.

On average, there are 637 trips per day across all routes, which translates to roughly 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Noble Park is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Noble Park shows better-than-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, but higher than national averages among older and at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% (around 16,003 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.1 and 5.8% of residents respectively. A total of 75.3% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 75.1%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.4% (around 5,615 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.4%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Noble Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Noble Park has a highly diverse population, with 68.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 63.9% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Noble Park, comprising 34.7% of its population. Buddhism is notably more prevalent here compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 19.7% versus 15.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (33.8%), Vietnamese (11.5%), and English (10.4%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences in representation: Sri Lankan is slightly overrepresented at 1.9%, Serbian stands at 0.9% (versus regional figures of 1.8% and 1.1% respectively), and Hungarian remains unchanged at 0.4%.

Noble Park's population is younger than the national pattern

Noble Park has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group makes up 19.7% of Noble Park's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 age group comprises 9.6%, which is less prevalent than in Greater Melbourne and nationally (14.5%). From 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.6% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 0-4 age group has decreased from 6.4% to 5.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Noble Park. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 68%, from 1,814 people to 3,051. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.