Noble Park

Population growth drivers in Noble Park are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of the Noble Park statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 34,265. This figure represents an increase of 2,008 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 32,257. The latest estimate of 34,024 residents was made by AreaSearch following examination of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024, with an additional 309 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 3,998 persons per square kilometer, placing Noble Park (SA2) within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 6.2% since the census is competitive with its SA3 area's growth fundamentals at 6.8%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the Noble Park (SA2).

AreaSearch's projections for future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth rate, with the area expected to grow by 5,300 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 14.7% over these 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Noble Park when compared nationally

Noble Park has averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, an estimated 661 homes were approved, with a further 51 approved in FY-26 as of now. The average population increase per new dwelling constructed over these years was 0.2 people annually.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more housing options and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $400,000. In the current financial year, Noble Park has registered $36.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Noble Park maintains similar construction rates per capita, contributing to market stability aligned with regional trends. Recent construction in Noble Park comprises 26.0% standalone homes and 74.0% medium to high-density housing.

This shift from the area's existing housing stock (currently 65.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 240 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Noble Park is projected to grow by 5,051 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with these growth projections, although increased competition among buyers can be expected as the population expands.

Noble Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Douglas Apartments, Noble Park Revitalisation, The Woodlands Keysborough, and Noble Park Station and Level Crossing Removal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Noble Park has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Noble Park's workforce is skilled with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.7% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0%.

As of September 2025, 17,145 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lagged at 56.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries included manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing had notably high concentration with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.7% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The area offered limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 4.0%, while labour force grew by 4.7%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 showed Victorian employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 projected growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Noble Park's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Noble Park's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $45,205. The average income stood at $50,103 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $48,934 (median) and $54,236 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Noble Park fall between the 15th and 27th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 33.1% of locals (11,341 people), with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999. This mirrors the regional distribution where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Noble Park, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Noble Park displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Noble Park's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 65.1% houses and 34.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noble Park stood at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.5% and rented ones at 41.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Noble Park was $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, Noble Park's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,647 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $341 compared to the national figure of $375.

Noble Park features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.2% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 21.2% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 26.4% and group households comprising 5.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Noble Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 26.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 26.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 15.5%. Educational participation is high, with 29.7% currently enrolled in formal education, including 7.8% in primary, 6.5% in secondary, and 6.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Noble Park has 87 active public transport stops. These include both train and bus services. The area is served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 3,531 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility in Noble Park is rated as good, with residents on average being located 242 meters from the nearest transport stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages 504 trips per day, which equates to approximately 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Noble Park is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Noble Park exhibits above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, certain older and at-risk cohorts show higher rates of these conditions.

Private health cover is found to be extremely low in Noble Park, affecting approximately 47% of the total population (~16,015 people), while the national average stands at 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.1 and 5.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 75.3% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 75.1% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016 data, Noble Park has 16.4% of its population aged 65 and over (5,619 people), which is lower than the 17.4% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Noble Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Noble Park has a high level of cultural diversity, with 68.8% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 63.9% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Noble Park, making up 34.7% of people, although Buddhism is notably more prevalent at 19.7%, compared to 15.2% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Other (33.8%), Vietnamese (11.5%), and English (10.4%).

Some ethnic groups show notable differences in representation: Sri Lankan is slightly overrepresented at 1.9% versus the regional average of 1.8%, Serbian is underrepresented at 0.9% compared to 1.1%, and Hungarian shows no significant difference at 0.4%.

Noble Park's population is younger than the national pattern

Noble Park's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 19.7% of Noble Park's population, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower than the national average of 14.5%. The 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 9.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.6% to 13.3%, while the 0 to 4 cohort has declined from 6.4% to 5.8%. By 2041, forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Noble Park. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 1,234 people (68%) from 1,816 to 3,051. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.