Noble Park - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Noble Park - East are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Noble Park - East's population is around 13,784 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,045 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,739 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,699 in June 2024 and an additional 144 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,656 persons per square kilometer. Noble Park - East's growth rate of 8.2% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area's growth rate of 6.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 90.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to expand by 2,728 persons based on latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 19.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Noble Park - East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Noble Park - East averaged approximately 49 new dwelling approvals annually over recent years. Between FY21-FY25246 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved so far in FY26. The average population increase per year for each dwelling built during these five financial years was 0.4 people.

This indicates that new supply has been keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes was $385,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. In the current financial year, $23.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Noble Park - East shows comparable new home approvals per capita, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. The new development composition consists of 20% standalone homes and 80% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This represents a shift from the area's existing housing, currently 56% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. Noble Park - East has approximately 424 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market. Population forecasts project an increase of 2,643 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Noble Park - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include The Woodlands Keysborough, Douglas Apartments, EastLink Freeway Noble Park Section, and Noble Park Aquatic Centre Redevelopment. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Noble Park - East has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Noble Park - East has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.1% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.4%. There were 7,250 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 1.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 58.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade.

Manufacturing employs twice the regional average. Professional & technical services employ only 6.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4%, and labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industries. Applying these projections to Noble Park - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Noble Park - East had a median taxpayer income of $44,832 and an average of $49,648 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $50,284 and the average $55,685, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Noble Park - East rank modestly, between the 25th and 26th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 32.9% of residents (4,534 people), similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Noble Park - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Noble Park - East's dwellings, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 56.2% houses and 43.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noble Park - East stood at 22.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 47.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,600, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent was recorded at $331, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, Noble Park - East's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Noble Park - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.1% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.9%, with lone person households at 30.8% and group households making up 6.0%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Noble Park - East shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Noble Park - East has 30.7% of its residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This indicates room for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 16.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.5% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.6% in primary, 6.7% in tertiary, and 5.6% in secondary education. The area's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 960 students, serving distinct age groups with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 972). However, local school capacity is limited at 7.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.5, leading many families to seek schooling in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Noble Park - East has 33 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 14 routes, facilitating 4,180 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 311 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 597 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 126 weekly trips per individual stop.

Noble Park - East's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Noble Park - East. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is extremely low, approximately 46% of the total population (~6,354 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 6.3% and 5.8% of residents respectively. 75.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.1% across Greater Melbourne. As of December 2021, 15.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,150 people), which is lower than the 17.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Noble Park - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Noble Park - East has a population where 67.3% speak a language other than English at home and 63.4% were born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, with 36.0%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 12.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (33.0%), English (11.2%), and Australian (9.3%). Sri Lankan, Vietnamese, and Serbian ethnicities show notable divergences: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 2.5%, Vietnamese is slightly underrepresented at 7.8% compared to the regional figure of 8.5%, and Serbian is nearly equally represented at 1.0%.

Noble Park - East's population is younger than the national pattern

Noble Park - East has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 21.0% of its population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 age group makes up 9.1%, which is less prevalent than in Greater Melbourne. This concentration of people aged 25-34 is well above the national average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and the present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.1% to 8.8% of the population, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.5% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 0-4 age group has declined from 7.1% to 6.0%, and the 25-34 age group decreased from 22.1% to 21.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Noble Park - East. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to increase by 586 people (48%) from 1,211 to 1,798. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 51% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.