Noble Park - East

Population growth drivers in Noble Park - East are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Noble Park - East's population is around 13,819 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,080 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,739 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,699 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 158 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,665 persons per square kilometer. Noble Park - East's growth rate of 8.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 90.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth, with the area expected to expand by 2,728 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 18.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Noble Park - East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Noble Park - East has averaged approximately 49 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY21 and FY25246 homes were approved, with a further 28 approved in FY26 to date. The average population growth per dwelling built over these years is 0.4 persons.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choices and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes is $272,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY26, $23.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in the area compared to Greater Melbourne. Noble Park - East's new home approvals per capita are comparable to those of Greater Melbourne, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas. The current development composition is 20% standalone homes and 80% attached dwellings, a notable shift from the existing housing stock which is currently 56% houses.

This higher-density living creates more affordable entry points suitable for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 424 people per dwelling approval, Noble Park - East exhibits signs of a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to gain approximately 2,608 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Noble Park - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are Douglas Apartments, The Woodlands Keysborough, EastLink Freeway Noble Park Section, and Noble Park Aquatic Centre Redevelopment. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Noble Park - East has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Noble Park - East has an educated workforce with strong manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 6.1% and it experienced 4.0% employment growth in the year ending September 2025.

As of that date, 7,297 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lags at 58.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing has particularly high concentration with employment levels at 2.0 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services employ only 6.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0% and labour force grew by 4.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Noble Park - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Noble Park - East SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $44,832 and an average of $49,648 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $54,892 and average income at $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,284 (median) and $55,685 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Noble Park - East fall between the 24th and 25th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 32.9% of residents (4,546 people), similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Noble Park - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Noble Park - East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 56.2% houses and 43.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 72.1% houses and 28.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noble Park - East was at 22.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 47.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,600, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $331, compared to Melbourne metro's $350. Nationally, Noble Park - East's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Noble Park - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.1% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.9%, with lone person households at 30.8% and group households comprising 6.0%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Noble Park - East shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Noble Park East has educational qualifications that differ from Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks. As of the latest data, 30.7% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 12.2% and certificates make up 16.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.5% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.6% in primary education, 6.7% in tertiary education, and 5.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Noble Park - East has 33 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 14 individual routes, collectively providing 4,180 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 311 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 597 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 126 weekly trips per individual stop.

Noble Park - East's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Noble Park - East. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~6,370 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 6.3 and 5.8% of residents respectively. 75.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 75.1% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 15.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,155 people), which is lower than the 17.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Noble Park - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Noble Park - East has a population where 67.3% speak a language other than English at home, with 63.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 36.0%. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 12.8% of Noble Park - East's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (33.0%), English (11.2%), and Australian (9.3%). Sri Lankan, Vietnamese, and Serbian ethnicities show notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages.

Noble Park - East's population is younger than the national pattern

Noble Park - East has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group makes up 21.0% of its population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 cohort comprises 9.1%. This 25-34 concentration is well above the national average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.1% to 8.8% of the population, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.5% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 0-4 cohort declined from 7.1% to 6.0%, and the 25-34 group dropped from 22.1% to 21.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Noble Park - East. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to increase by 583 people (48%) from 1,214 to 1,798. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 51% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are expected to have reduced numbers.