Chelsea - Bonbeach

Population growth drivers in Chelsea - Bonbeach are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Chelsea-Bonbeach's population was approximately 15,932 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 728 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,204. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 15,882 in June 2024 and an additional 159 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 2,939 persons per square kilometer, placing Chelsea-Bonbeach in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. Over the past decade, ending in June 2024, Chelsea-Bonbeach showed resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, based on 2022 data. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Chelsea-Bonbeach is projected to expand by 2,828 persons to reach approximately 18,760 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.4% over these 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chelsea - Bonbeach when compared nationally

Chelsea-Bonbeach has recorded approximately 69 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 349 homes. As of FY26, 10 approvals have been recorded. The average new resident count per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 is 1.6, indicating balanced supply and demand. However, this figure has recently increased to 4.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $425,000, slightly above the regional average.

Commercial approvals for FY26 total $19.1 million, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chelsea-Bonbeach shows 17.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 58th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity consists of 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has approximately 263 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Chelsea-Bonbeach is forecasted to gain 2,778 residents by 2041. Construction activity is maintaining pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as population increases.

Chelsea - Bonbeach has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified five projects that could impact the area significantly due to their potential influence on local infrastructure. Notable among these are The Dell by Stockland, Bonbeach Station Precinct Redevelopment & Level Crossing Removal, Bonbeach Lifesaving Club Redevelopment, and Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale.

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The labour market performance in Chelsea - Bonbeach lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Chelsea-Bonbeach has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 6.6%.

Over the past year, employment stability has been relative. There are 8,461 employed residents, with a 2.0% higher unemployment rate than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%, and workforce participation at par with Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Accommodation & food services are under-represented, at 4.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.4%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment remained stable (0.0%) while labour force increased by 0.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and labour force by 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chelsea-Bonbeach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Chelsea - Bonbeach SA2 has one of the highest incomes in Australia. The median income is $63,591 while the average income stands at $76,902. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures where the median income is $54,892 and the average income is $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $71,324 (median) and $86,253 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 74th percentile ($962 weekly), while household income sits at the 48th percentile. Distribution data shows that 31.5% of residents (5,018 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Chelsea - Bonbeach SA2, with only 82.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 47th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Chelsea - Bonbeach displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Chelsea-Bonbeach, as per the latest Census, consisted of 36.5% houses and 63.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chelsea-Bonbeach was at 30.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.4% and rented dwellings at 31.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,065, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Chelsea-Bonbeach was $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Chelsea-Bonbeach's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,065 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were higher at $381 compared to the national figure of $375.

Chelsea - Bonbeach features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.1% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Chelsea - Bonbeach shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 32.7%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (21.8%), are held by 34.4% of residents aged 15 and above. Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chelsea-Bonbeach has 51 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 routes that collectively facilitate 4,210 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 228 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 601 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chelsea - Bonbeach is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Chelsea-Bonbeach faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 58% of the total population (~9,208 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.4% and 8.4% of residents respectively. 66.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 20.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (3,218 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Chelsea - Bonbeach was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Chelsea-Bonbeach has a cultural diversity above average, with 13.8% of its population speaking languages other than English at home and 24.8% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Chelsea-Bonbeach, comprising 45.0% of people there. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented, making up 0.5% compared to 1.1% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups are English (28.4%), Australian (23.3%), and Irish (9.5%). Some other ethnic groups also diverge in representation: Russian is at 1.0%, Polish at 1.0%, and Hungarian at 0.4%.

Chelsea - Bonbeach's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Chelsea-Bonbeach's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Chelsea-Bonbeach at 10.3%, while the 15-24 age group is under-represented at 8.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.0% to 6.9% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 13.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Chelsea-Bonbeach's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 69%, adding 762 residents to reach 1,868. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 58% of the population growth, while the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are projected to decline in population.