Patterson Lakes

An assessment of population growth drivers in Patterson Lakes reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Patterson Lakes is estimated at around 8,026 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 233 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,793. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,005 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2025 and validation of an additional 10 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,879 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends project an above median growth for the suburb by 2041, with an expected expansion of 1,132 persons reflecting a total increase of 13.8% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Patterson Lakes is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Patterson Lakes has received around 5 dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 25 homes. As of FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years suggests new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $730,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

This financial year, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Patterson Lakes has markedly lower building activity (88.0% below regional average per person), which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, indicating a shift towards established areas with potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 794 people per dwelling approval, Patterson Lakes reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to gain 1,111 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Population forecasts indicate Patterson Lakes will gain 1,111 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Patterson Lakes has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Keysborough Golf Club Relocation and South East Sports Hub, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, Ballarto Road Upgrade.

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Patterson Lakes shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 5.5% as of December 2025. This rate is 0.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Patterson Lakes is lower at 67.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A significant number, 28.2%, of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction stands out with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 7.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by a lower working population than resident population. Over the year ending December 2025, labour force decreased by 0.6% and employment by 0.1%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Patterson Lakes's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Patterson Lakes' median income among taxpayers is $56,937. The average income in the suburb is $73,788. Both figures are above the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $57,688 and the average is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Patterson Lakes would be approximately $62,414 (median) and $80,886 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals that incomes in Patterson Lakes cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The income distribution shows that 29.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Patterson Lakes' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.9% houses and 40.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Patterson Lakes stood at 40.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.1% and rented ones at 16.1%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $2,100, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $430, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.2% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 26.3% and group households making up 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.1%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 35.6% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (23.5%). Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 7.9% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 29 active transport stops operating within Patterson Lakes. These are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 483 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, above the regional average.

A high 28.2% of residents work from home, according to the 2021 Census; this may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 69 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Patterson Lakes's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates robust performance across Patterson Lakes, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both young and elderly cohorts exhibit low incidence of common health conditions. Private health cover is prevalent at approximately 56% of the total population (~4,492 people). The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 7.3% of residents respectively. 69.8% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65 residents show better-than-average health outcomes. Patterson Lakes has 25.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,038 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors align with national rankings, mirroring the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Patterson Lakes was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Patterson Lakes had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 27.5% of its population born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Patterson Lakes, accounting for 51.4% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.6%), Australian (22.2%), and Irish (8.1%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.5% (vs regional 0.3%), Russian at 0.7% (vs 0.4%), and Sri Lankan at 0.6% (vs 0.8%).

Patterson Lakes hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Patterson Lakes is 46 years, notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also above the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Patterson Lakes has a notably higher proportion of people aged 65-74 (13.6% locally) but fewer people aged 25-34 (7.3%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 6.4% to 8.4%, while those aged 15 to 24 have increased from 10.7% to 12.2%. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 45 to 54 has declined from 16.1% to 14.1%, and those aged 25 to 34 have decreased from 9.0% to 7.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Patterson Lakes. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 405 people (60%), from 674 to 1,080. This aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 78% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.