Patterson Lakes

An assessment of population growth drivers in Patterson Lakes reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Patterson Lakes is estimated at approximately 7,974 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 181 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,793. The current estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 7,951 with an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,867 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% to overall population gains during recent periods.

Population projections for Patterson Lakes are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by the former data. Future population trends project an above median growth rate, with Patterson Lakes expected to expand by 1,219 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 15.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Patterson Lakes had around 5 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 25 homes. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.9 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand outpacing supply. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $730,000, targeting the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Patterson Lakes has 88.0% lower building activity per person, suggesting scarcity of new dwellings and potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. Patterson Lakes has around 807 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 1,196 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Population forecasts indicate Patterson Lakes will gain 1,196 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Patterson Lakes has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting the region: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Keysborough Golf Club Relocation and South East Sports Hub, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, Ballarto Road Upgrade.

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Employment conditions in Patterson Lakes remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. The unemployment rate was 5.5% as of December 2025. This is 0.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Patterson Lakes was 68.7%, slightly below Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A significant portion, 28.2%, of residents worked from home according to Census responses. Major employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction stands out with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 7.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. In the year ending December 2025, employment increased by 0.1% while labour force decreased by 0.4%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Patterson Lakes's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Patterson Lakes' median income among taxpayers is $56,937, with an average of $73,788. This is higher than the national average and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $61,634 (median) and $79,876 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Patterson Lakes cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.9% of the community (2,384 individuals), aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. After housing, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Patterson Lakes' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.9% houses and 40.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Patterson Lakes stood at 40.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.1% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Patterson Lakes was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 72.2% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 26.3% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.1%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (23.5%). Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 7.9% in secondary, 7.8% in primary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 29 active transport stops operating within Patterson Lakes. These stops are served by a mix of buses along five individual routes, collectively providing 483 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 28.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 69 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Patterson Lakes's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Patterson Lakes.

AreaSearch's assessment reveals low prevalence of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~4,463 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4 and 7.3% of residents respectively. 69.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. As of 2016, the area has 25.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,049 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Patterson Lakes was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Patterson Lakes was found to have a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.5% of its population born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Patterson Lakes, making up 51.4% of its population. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented, comprising 0.4% compared to Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.6%), Australian (22.2%), and Irish (8.1%). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Hungarian at 0.5%, Russian at 0.7%, and Sri Lankan at 0.6%.

Patterson Lakes hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Patterson Lakes is 46 years, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and is also higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. In Patterson Lakes, those aged 65-74 make up 13.8% of the population, a notable over-representation compared to Greater Melbourne's average. Meanwhile, individuals aged 25-34 constitute only 6.9%, indicating an under-representation in this age group. In the period between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of Patterson Lakes' population aged 75 to 84 has increased from 6.4% to 8.7%. The 15 to 24 age cohort has also seen an increase, from 10.7% to 12.1%. However, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 16.1% to 13.9%, and the 25 to 34 age group has dropped from 9.0% to 6.9%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Patterson Lakes. The 75 to 84 age cohort is expected to grow by 425 people (an increase of 61%) from 693 to 1,119. This growth in the older population is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 76% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.