Patterson Lakes

An assessment of population growth drivers in Patterson Lakes reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Patterson Lakes statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 7,966 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 173 people since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 7,793 people. The current population estimate of 7,951, validated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), includes an additional 6 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,865 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for the Patterson Lakes (SA2), with an expected expansion of 1,255 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a total increase of 17.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Between FY21 and FY25, Patterson Lakes received approximately 3 dwelling approvals annually, totalling about 17 over the past 5 financial years. As of FY26, 2 approvals have been recorded. Each year, around 8.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period. This significant demand outpaces supply, which typically increases competition among buyers and puts upward pressure on prices.

New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $730,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Patterson Lakes has notably lower building activity, at 92.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, though it remains under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity shows a focus on higher-density living, with 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift from the existing housing composition (currently 60.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 1241 people per dwelling approval, Patterson Lakes reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area will gain approximately 1,404 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Patterson Lakes has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation. Other notable projects include Keysborough Golf Club Relocation and South East Sports Hub, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, and Ballarto Road Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Patterson Lakes shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate stands at 6.0% according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 4,402 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction stands out with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 7.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force increased by 0.3% while employment decreased by 0.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from VIC up to 25-Nov-25 shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Patterson Lakes's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Patterson Lakes' median income among taxpayers is $56,937. The average income in the suburb is $73,788. Both figures are above the national averages. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Patterson Lakes would be approximately $61,634 (median) and $79,876 (average) by September 2025. Census data indicates that incomes in Patterson Lakes cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The income distribution shows that 29.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per year, which is similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing expenses, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. Patterson Lakes' SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated Patterson Lakes' dwelling structure as 59.9% houses and 40.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Patterson Lakes was at 40.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.1% and rented at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.2% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for 27.8%, with lone person households at 26.3% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.1%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (23.5%). Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 7.9% in secondary, 7.8% in primary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 29 active transport stops operating within Patterson Lakes. These comprise a mix of buses serving 5 individual routes. They collectively facilitate 483 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically situated 238 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 69 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Patterson Lakes's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data for Patterson Lakes shows positive outcomes with common health conditions seen equally across young and old residents. Private health cover is high at approximately 56% of the total population (~4,458 people), compared to 59.5% in Greater Melbourne.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.4%) and asthma (7.3%). A majority, 69.8%, report no medical ailments, close to Greater Melbourne's 70.4%. Patterson Lakes has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.1% (1,919 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Patterson Lakes was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Patterson Lakes, surveyed in June 2021, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 27.5% of its residents born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 51.4% of Patterson Lakes' population as of June 2021. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Patterson Lakes, comprising 0.4%, compared to Melbourne's average of 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (27.6%), Australian (22.2%), and Irish (8.1%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian at 0.5% (vs regional 0.4%), Russian at 0.7% (vs 1.0%), and Sri Lankan at 0.6% (vs 0.6%).

Patterson Lakes hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Patterson Lakes is 46 years, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and is also higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, the cohort aged 65-74 is notably over-represented at 13.1% locally, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 7.3%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 6.4% to 8.0%, and the cohort aged 15 to 24 increased from 10.7% to 12.0%. Conversely, those aged 45 to 54 have declined from 16.1% to 14.3%, and the 25-34 group has dropped from 9.0% to 7.3%. Population forecasts for Patterson Lakes by 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The cohort aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 489 people (77%) from 637 to 1,127. This aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 76% of the projected growth. Conversely, the cohorts aged 25-34 and 5-14 are expected to experience population declines.