Patterson Lakes

An assessment of population growth drivers in Patterson Lakes reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Patterson Lakes' population is estimated at around 7,974 people. This reflects an increase of 181 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,793. The current population is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 7,959 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with six validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,867 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth rate for the suburb of Patterson Lakes, with an expected expansion of 1,254 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 17.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Patterson Lakes has received approximately 4 dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years ending FY-25. This totals an estimated 21 homes. As of FY-26, no approvals have been recorded yet.

On average, around 6.8 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost value of $730,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Patterson Lakes has significantly less development activity, 90.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, although building activity has accelerated in recent years. Nationally, this is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 40.0% detached dwellings and 60.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a focus on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 60.0% houses.

Patterson Lakes reflects a highly mature market with approximately 1008 people per dwelling approval. Population forecasts indicate Patterson Lakes will gain 1,395 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Patterson Lakes has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation, Keysborough Golf Club Relocation and South East Sports Hub, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, Ballarto Road Upgrade.

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Patterson Lakes shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 6.3%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, there are 4,472 residents employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Patterson Lakes is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 7.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as suggested by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, labour force increased by 1.3%, while employment decreased by 1.2%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 2.4 percentage points in Patterson Lakes. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years for the country as a whole. Applying these projections to Patterson Lakes' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode-level ATO data on June 30, 2022. Patterson Lakes' median income among taxpayers was $56,937 and the average was $73,788. This was higher than national averages. Greater Melbourne had a median of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $63,861 (median) and $82,761 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data shows Patterson Lakes' incomes cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.9% of the community (2,384 individuals), similar to the broader area at 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. Patterson Lakes' SEIFA income ranking is in the 7th decile.

Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Patterson Lakes' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.9% houses and 40.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Melbourne metro had 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Patterson Lakes was at 40.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.1% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Patterson Lakes was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $430 compared to the national figure of $375.

Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.2% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 26.3% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.1%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (23.5%). Educational participation is high at 25.8%, comprising secondary education (7.9%), primary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (4.4%).

Patterson Lakes Primary School serves the area with an enrollment of 518 students, operating under above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1057). It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 6.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.6, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Patterson Lakes has 29 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are five different bus routes operating in the area, together providing 750 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average living just 238 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 107 daily trips across all routes, which works out to around 25 weekly trips per individual bus stop.

Patterson Lakes's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Patterson Lakes residents with common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 56% of the total population (~4,463 people), compared to 58.2% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4 and 7.3% of residents respectively. 69.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 2021, 24.1% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,921 people), higher than the 19.3% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Patterson Lakes was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Patterson Lakes has a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 27.5% of its population born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Patterson Lakes, accounting for 51.4% of the population. However, Judaism is more prevalent here than in Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.4% compared to 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.6%), Australian (22.2%), and Irish (8.1%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Hungarian at 0.5% (vs regional 0.4%), Russian at 0.7% (vs regional 1.0%), and Sri Lankan at 0.6% (vs regional 0.6%).

Patterson Lakes hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Patterson Lakes is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. Comparing Patterson Lakes' demographics with Greater Melbourne, the cohort aged 65-74 is significantly over-represented at 13.1%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 7.3%. Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population of those aged 75 to 84 has grown from 6.4% to 8.0%, and the cohort aged 15 to 24 has increased from 10.7% to 12.0%. Conversely, the age group 45-54 has decreased from 16.1% to 14.3%, and those aged 25-34 have dropped from 9.0% to 7.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Patterson Lakes. The cohort aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow substantially, increasing by 488 people (77%) from 637 to 1,126. This aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 76% of the projected growth. Conversely, the cohorts aged 25-34 and 5-14 are expected to experience population declines.