Patterson Lakes

An assessment of population growth drivers in Patterson Lakes reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Patterson Lakes is around 7,974, reflecting an increase of 181 people since the 2021 Census. The population was reported as 7,793 in 2021. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 7,951 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,867 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth rate, with the suburb expected to expand by 1,248 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 17.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Patterson Lakes according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Patterson Lakes has experienced around 3 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 17 homes. So far in FY26, 2 approvals have been recorded. Over these 5 years, an average of 8.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. This significant demand outpacing supply typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average value of $730,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Patterson Lakes records markedly lower building activity, 92.0% below regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This activity is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 60.0% houses.

Patterson Lakes reflects a highly mature market with around 1241 people per dwelling approval. Population forecasts indicate Patterson Lakes will gain 1,382 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Patterson Lakes has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Carrum Level Crossing Removal and Revitalisation. Other notable projects include Keysborough Golf Club Relocation and South East Sports Hub, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, and Ballarto Road Upgrade. The following details projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Patterson Lakes shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Patterson Lakes has a skilled workforce with the construction sector notably represented. The unemployment rate is 6.0%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 4,410 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 71.0%. According to Census responses, 28.2% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 7.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force increased by 0.3% while employment decreased by 0.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Patterson Lakes' employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Patterson Lakes' median income among taxpayers is $56,937, with an average of $73,788. This is higher than the national average. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $61,634 (median) and $79,876 (average). Census data indicates that incomes in Patterson Lakes cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999, aligning with the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing expenses, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. Patterson Lakes' SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Patterson Lakes displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Patterson Lakes, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.9% houses and 40.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Patterson Lakes stood at 40.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (43.1%) or rented (16.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Patterson Lakes' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,100 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Patterson Lakes has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.2% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 26.3% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Patterson Lakes exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.1%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.8%. Vocational credentials are held by 35.6% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 23.5%. Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 7.9% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Patterson Lakes has 29 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 483 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents living an average of 238 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 28.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 69 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Patterson Lakes's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Patterson Lakes.

AreaSearch's assessment shows low prevalence of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population, which amounts to about 4,463 people. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4% and 7.3% of residents respectively. A majority, 69.8%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 25.1% (2,001 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Patterson Lakes align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Patterson Lakes was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Patterson Lakes, surveyed in June 2016, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 27.5% of its population born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 51.4%. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.4% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (27.6%), Australian (22.2%), and Irish (8.1%). Notably, Hungarian (0.5%) and Russian (0.7%) groups were more prevalent than the regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, while Sri Lankan was slightly underrepresented at 0.6% versus 0.8%.

Patterson Lakes hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Patterson Lakes is 46 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort makes up 13.6% of Patterson Lakes' population, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, indicating an over-representation of this age group locally. Conversely, the 25-34 year-olds constitute only 6.9% of Patterson Lakes' population, showing under-representation in this age group compared to Greater Melbourne's average. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.4% to 8.4%, while the 15-24 cohort has increased from 10.7% to 12.0%. However, the 45-54 age group has declined from 16.1% to 13.8%, and the 25-34 age group has dropped from 9.0% to 6.9%. Population forecasts for Patterson Lakes in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the 75-84 age cohort projected to grow by 448 people (67%), from 669 to 1,118. The aging population trend is evident, as those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 72% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.