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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Carrum Downs has an estimated 23,549 residents, up from 21,976 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,573 people, or 7.2%. Growth has averaged 0.9% a year over five years. 605 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. Overseas migration accounts for 56.8% of that increase. That puts 1,160 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to calculations by AreaSearch, the population of Carrum Downs stands at approximately 23,549 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,573 residents (7.2%) relative to the 2021 Census, when the population was recorded at 21,976 people. This shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 23,464 combined with 605 validated new addresses registered since the Census. The suburb has a population density of 1,159 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with the typical figures observed across other analyzed regions. With its 7.2% expansion rate since the 2021 census, Carrum Downs outpaced both the SA4 region (3.2%) and the SA3 area, establishing it as a leader in regional growth.
The expansion was driven mostly by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 56.8% of the total population gains in recent times, though other components such as natural increase and interstate migration also made positive contributions. For each SA2 locality, AreaSearch applies the projections published by the ABS and Geoscience Australia in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. In instances where SA2 data is unavailable, projections are sourced from the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA releases, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. The age cohort growth rates derived from these aggregations are applied to all locations for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these anticipated demographic trends, the area is projected to experience population growth above the national median, expanding by 4,074 persons by 2041 when compared against the latest annual ERP statistics, which represents a total increase of 16.9% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
517 new dwellings have been approved in Carrum Downs over the past five years, an average of 103 a year. That is 4.6 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 93 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 38% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 34, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Over the last 5 financial years, Carrum Downs registered a total of 517 residential approvals, averaging about 103 new homes annually. For the current FY-26 period, 32 approvals have been documented so far. During the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, the area averaged 2.1 people moving in per new dwelling built, pointing to a steady demand that helps sustain property values. The average construction value of these new dwellings is $265,000, which sits below the regional average and points to more budget-friendly housing possibilities for purchasers. Furthermore, commercial development approvals have reached $79.1 million during this financial year, reflecting a strong upward trend in commercial projects.
In comparison to Greater Melbourne, development activity in Carrum Downs is slightly elevated, running 47.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year timeframe. This provides purchasers with a healthy selection of options while reinforcing existing property values, despite a recent slowdown in construction volumes. The composition of new builds comprises 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% attached dwellings. This emphasis on higher-density options offers more affordable entry points and accommodates downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a marked departure from the current housing stock, which consists of 79.0% houses, showing a scarcity of available development land alongside changing lifestyle preferences and budget constraints. Reflecting a mature and settled community, Carrum Downs registers approximately 1392 people per approval. Demographic projections indicate that Carrum Downs will add 3,989 residents by 2041, starting from the most recent AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Although development is keeping pace reasonably well with this expected growth, buyers might experience heightened competition as the local population increases.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Carrum Downs
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 10 current infrastructure and development projects inside Carrum Downs, worth an estimated $415 million. A further 98 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $14.1 billion. 28 are already under construction and 31 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and urban planning decisions represent key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 15 projects that are anticipated to influence the local area. Prominent developments include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements, with the detailed list below outlining the projects of greatest significance.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Aspen Skye
Boutique residential land estate of around 180 residential lots located on the corner of Ballarto Road and McCormicks Road in Skye, featuring direct frontage to the planned Skye Activity Centre and wetlands precinct.
42-50 Hall Road Townhouses
Prime residential development site with permit approval for 59 townhouses, sold by Catholic Archdiocese of Melbourne in 2021. Located on 1.8 hectares with General Residential (R1Z) zoning, featuring efficient site configuration and extensive frontage onto Hall Road. Adjoining St Joachim's Catholic Primary School with proximity to Seaford Train Station, Eastlink (M3), Carrum Downs Shopping Centre and Sandhurst Golf Club.
Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts
Two new multi-use courts at Lavender Hill Reserve, Carrum Downs and Pratt Reserve in Frankston South. Construction began in early 2024 to provide enhanced sporting facilities for local community including basketball, netball and tennis court options.
110 Cadles Road Townhouses
Boutique development of 13 townhouses (2, 3 and 4 bedroom designs) at 110 Cadles Road by Thomas Anderson Design. Features full turn-key inclusions package including stainless steel appliances, ducted heating, landscaping, fencing and driveways. Located within walking distance of schools and shopping centre.
Sandford Estate
162 modern townhomes at 26 Brunnings Road, Carrum Downs delivered by Metricon TownLiving with Modus Developments and Newland Developers. Two, three and four bedroom townhomes with turn-key inclusions in a secluded enclave, connected by green links and pocket parks. Works began after 2019 approvals and dwellings were progressively released; by 2025 the estate is occupied and operating, indicating practical completion.
21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses
A boutique development of 7 contemporary townhouses currently under construction in Carrum Downs. The two-storey townhouses offer modern family living in a convenient location close to Carrum Downs Shopping Centre, schools, and public transport. Construction commenced in 2024 with completion scheduled for early 2025.
Sandhurst Gardens Estate
A master planned residential community in Skye in Melbourne's south east, featuring around 450 residential lots, local parks, wetlands and a future neighbourhood retail precinct, delivered by Frasers Property and Caydon.
Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements
149 new formalised car parking spaces, new public toilets close to play space, improved pedestrian access, traffic flow and public lighting at Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve. Project aims to cater to needs of growing community and improve facilities for reserve users.
12,822 residents of Carrum Downs are employed, from a labour force of 13,461. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 70.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Carrum Downs is characterized by a skilled labor force, with a notable concentration of workers in the construction sector, an unemployment rate of 4.7%, and steady employment conditions over the preceding year. As of March 2026, working residents count 12,822, with the unemployment rate matching the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8%, and the participation rate matching the Greater Melbourne level of 70.2%. Census figures show a moderate 16.4% of residents working from home, though this data should be interpreted with consideration of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions. The primary employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.
The suburb displays a strong specialization in construction, with its employment share double that of the regional average by a factor of 1.5. On the other hand, the professional & technical sector accounts for only 4.4% of the local workforce, falling short of the 10.1% average for Greater Melbourne. The presence of 0.6 workers for every resident at the time of the Census points to local job opportunities that exceed typical levels. According to AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics, the year ending March 2026 saw employment expand by 0.4% and the labor force grow by 0.2%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. This trend differed from Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.1%, the labor force expanded by 2.3%, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points. The national employment projections from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide additional context on potential employment trends for Carrum Downs. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. While national employment is anticipated to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the expected growth rates vary widely by industry. Applying these national sector trends to the employment profile of Carrum Downs suggests local job numbers could rise by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, representing a basic weighted projection for visualization that does not incorporate local population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Carrum Downs is $1,658 a week (about $86,000 a year), with median personal income at $817 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $58,079 a year against an average of $63,489. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Based on AreaSearch's analysis of the latest postcode-level ATO statistics released for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Carrum Downs SA2 recorded a median income of $58,079 and an average income of $63,489. These amounts are below the national benchmarks and compare to median and average figures of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne. Factoring in a Wage Price Index expansion of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to approximately $63,666 for the median and $69,597 for the average as of March 2026. Census statistics show that household, family, and individual incomes are moderate in Carrum Downs, falling between the 45th and 52nd percentiles.
Income distribution figures indicate that the largest bracket consists of 40.1% of local taxpayers (9,443 people) earning in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, mirroring the broader region where this bracket accounts for 32.8%. Affordability pressures are significant, leaving residents with only 81.9% of their income after housing costs, which ranks in the 43rd percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Carrum Downs had 8,307 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 79% detached houses and 0% apartments. 49% are owned with a mortgage, 28% rented and 23% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $370 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 22.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 24.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, the housing mix in Carrum Downs consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwelling types such as townhouses and apartments, compared to 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings across metropolitan Melbourne. Home ownership rates in Carrum Downs trailed metropolitan Melbourne at 22.9%, with the remaining properties occupied by mortgagors (49.0%) or renters (28.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,733 was below the metropolitan Melbourne average of $2,000, and the median weekly rent of $370 was lower than the metropolitan Melbourne benchmark of $390. On a national scale, mortgage payments in Carrum Downs are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are below the national average of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Carrum Downs counted 8,307 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 8,902 today, averaging 2.5 people each. 31% are couples with children, against 22% couples without children. 27% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.5 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 70.1%, which consists of couples with children at 31.1%, couples without children at 22.4%, and single parents at 15.5%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 29.9%, with single-person households at 26.7% and group homes at 3.1%. The median household occupancy of 2.5 people is slightly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
17.0% of adults in Carrum Downs hold a university qualification, including 12.1% with a bachelor degree and 3.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.4% hold a vocational qualification. 5 schools serve the area, with 2,546 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,005 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The locality presents educational disparities, with university graduation rates at 17.0%, well below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This situation represents both a hurdle and a chance for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher education qualification at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.1% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational and technical skills are highly represented, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 29.4%. Engagement in learning is high, with 27.7% of the population enrolled in formal study.
This student cohort includes 9.7% in primary school, 7.2% in high school, and 3.5% enrolled in higher education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Carrum Downs reaches 105 stops on 6 routes, timetabled for about 1,600 services a week. The typical home sits about 210 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Analysis of the public transport network shows 105 active stops operating within Carrum Downs, composed of various bus services. These locations are served by 6 separate routes, which together provide 1,566 passenger trips per week. Transport accessibility is ranked as good, with residents living an average of 214 meters from their nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, and most workers travel outside the area for employment, with private vehicles serving as the primary transport mode for 93% of commuters. Average vehicle ownership is 1.4 per household. Approximately 16.4% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.
Service density averages 223 daily trips across all active routes, translating to roughly 14 weekly services per individual stop. The associated map displays the 100 closest stops relative to the center of the suburb.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
65.6% of residents in Carrum Downs report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 92% of areas nationally. 6.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.5% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 7.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
AreaSearch's evaluation of death rates and the prevalence of chronic illnesses points to significant health issues in Carrum Downs, with various conditions affecting both youth and elderly populations, while the rate of private health insurance coverage is low at about 50% of the population (~11,892 people). This is below the Greater Melbourne rate of 56.7% and the national rate of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical diagnoses in the area are mental health conditions and asthma, which affect 10.3 and 9.6% of residents, respectively, while 65.6% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne.
The labor-force demographic experiences notable health concerns with high rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 14.3% of the local population (3,379 people). The health metrics for these older residents present challenges, with national percentiles tracking close to the general public.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
25.9% of Carrum Downs residents were born overseas and 18.2% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (27.1%) and Australian (25.3%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Carrum Downs displays higher levels of cultural diversity than most regional markets, with 25.9% of its residents born abroad and 18.2% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religious affiliation, representing 40.7% of the local population. However, the most pronounced disproportion relative to the wider region is observed in Judaism, which accounts for 0.3% of local residents compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne. Regarding ancestry patterns linked to parents' birth countries, the three most common backgrounds in Carrum Downs are English at 27.1%, which is higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian at 25.3%, which is higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Other at 9.5%, which is lower than the regional average of 14.6%.
There are also differences in other ethnic communities: Russian ancestry is represented at 0.6% in Carrum Downs (compared to 0.4% regionally), Sri Lankan at 0.7% (compared to 0.8% regionally), and Maori at 1.0% (compared to 0.3% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Carrum Downs is 36. 26.9% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 36 years in Carrum Downs closely matches the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 37 and is slightly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a larger share of residents in the 55 - 64 age bracket (12.1%) and a smaller share of young adults aged 15 - 24 (11.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort increased its share of the population from 14.6% to 16.1%, while the 25 to 34 group decreased from 16.8% to 15.4%. Demographic models suggest that the age structure of Carrum Downs will shift by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort expected to grow by 28%, adding 799 residents to reach a total of 3,703, while the 0 to 4 age group is projected to decrease by 14 children.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Carrum Downs
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 14 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 605 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (21,976 at the 2021 Census → 23,549 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (214011370). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.