Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carrum Downs's population is around 23,638 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,662 people (7.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,976 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,342 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 572 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,163 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum Downs's 7.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.1%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 52.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to expand by 4,395 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 17.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrum Downs has recorded around 103 residential properties granted approval per year, with 517 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 26 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.2 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $265,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $79.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has slightly more development (48.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity shows 38.0% detached dwellings and 62.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 79.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 1370 people per dwelling approval, Carrum Downs reflects a highly mature market.

Looking ahead, Carrum Downs is expected to grow by 4,099 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping a reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Carrum Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 15 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carrum Downs remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Carrum Downs features a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 4.8%, and 2.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 12,814 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is in line with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 16.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of 0.6 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.1% and the labour force increased by 1.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Carrum Downs. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carrum Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Carrum Downs SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $58,079 with the average level standing at $63,489. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $62,871 (median) and $68,727 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Carrum Downs, between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 40.1% of the community (9,478 individuals), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Carrum Downs, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Carrum Downs lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 22.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (49.0%) or rented (28.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Carrum Downs's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 70.1% of all households, comprising 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (17.0%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 105 active transport stops operating within Carrum Downs, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1,566 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 214 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. Some 16.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 223 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Carrum Downs, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~11,937 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents, respectively, while 65.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 14.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,514 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 25.9% of its population born overseas and 18.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Carrum Downs is Christianity, which makes up 40.7% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Carrum Downs are English, comprising 27.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 25.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Other, comprising 9.5% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.6%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Russian is notably overrepresented at 0.6% of Carrum Downs (vs 0.4% regionally), Sri Lankan at 0.7% (vs 0.8%) and Maori at 1.0% (vs 0.3%).

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 36 years, Carrum Downs's median age is nearly matching the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is similarly modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher concentration of 55 - 64 residents (12.4%) but fewer 15 - 24 year-olds (11.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 14.6% to 15.9% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 16.8% to 14.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Carrum Downs's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 65 to 74 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 41%, adding 816 residents to reach 2,830. In contrast, the 0 to 4 group will contract by 13 residents.