Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carrum Downs' population is approximately 23,638 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,662 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 21,976. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,342 in June 2024 and an additional 572 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,163 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum Downs' growth rate of 7.6% since the 2021 census exceeds both its SA4 region (4.1%) and SA3 area, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections anticipate an above median population growth, with the area expected to expand by 4,395 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 17.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrum Downs has recorded approximately 103 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 517 homes were approved, with an additional 24 approved in FY26 so far. On average, around 2.2 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, reflecting strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $265,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY26 alone, $79.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has slightly higher development activity, with 48.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. The new building activity shows a trend towards denser development, with 38.0% detached dwellings and 62.0% attached dwellings, providing accessible entry options that appeal to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is currently 79.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Carrum Downs reflects a highly mature market with around 1370 people per dwelling approval. Looking ahead, Carrum Downs is projected to grow by 4,099 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Carrum Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Carrum Downs remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of September 2025, which is 0.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%.

As of September 2025, 12,766 residents were employed, with workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 16.4% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Construction employment share is particularly high at 1.5 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services employ only 4.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of 0.6 workers per resident indicates a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5%, labour force grew by 2.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Carrum Downs SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $58,079 and an average income of $63,489. Nationally, these figures were lower at $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). In Greater Melbourne, they stood at $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $62,871 (median) and $68,727 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Carrum Downs ranked modestly between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 40.1% of individuals earned between $1,500 - 2,999, aligning with regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Carrum Downs, as per the latest Census, 79.1% of dwellings were houses while 20.8% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs was at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented ones at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne's $2,000 average. Median weekly rent was $370 compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Carrum Downs had lower mortgage repayments ($1,733 vs. Australia's $1,863) and rents ($370 vs. national figure of $375).

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum Downs has 105 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by six routes, offering a total of 1,566 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 214 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily, with cars being the primary mode at 93%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 16.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 223 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 14 weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this data, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Carrum Downs faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% of Carrum Downs' total population (~11,937 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, impacting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 65.6% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age population health is particularly challenging due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 14.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,514 people), with senior health outcomes presenting notable challenges but generally aligning with national rankings.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.9% of its residents born overseas and 18.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrum Downs, accounting for 40.7% of the population. Judaism was notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.3% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (27.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Other (9.5%). Notably, Russian (0.6%) and Maori (1.0%) groups were overrepresented in Carrum Downs compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. This is modestly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher concentration of 55-64 year-olds at 12.4%, but fewer 15-24 year-olds at 11.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has grown from 14.6% to 15.9% of the population. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 16.8% to 14.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carrum Downs's age profile will evolve significantly. The 65-74 cohort is projected to grow by 41%, adding 816 residents to reach 2,830. Conversely, the 0-4 group is projected to contract by 13 residents.