Carrum Downs
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carrum Downs' population, as of Aug 2025, is approximately 23,630. This figure represents an increase of 1,654 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 21,976. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 23,345 in June 2024 and an additional 569 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,163 persons per square kilometer, roughly in line with averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum Downs' growth rate of 7.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA4 region (3.2%) and SA3 area, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Carrum Downs is expected to have above median population growth, increasing by 4,395 persons to 2041 and recording a total gain of 17.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrum Downs has seen approximately 103 new homes approved annually. Between FY21-FY25517 homes were approved, with an additional 22 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 2.2 people moved to the area per new home constructed over those five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $374,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $79.1 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs records elevated construction activity, with 48.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although development activity has moderated recently. New building activity consists of 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 79.0% houses.

This change may be due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 1370 people per dwelling approval, Carrum Downs reflects a highly mature market. Future projections indicate that Carrum Downs will add approximately 4,107 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Carrum Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements, and Sandford Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrum Downs shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce, with the construction sector notably represented. The unemployment rate was 4.9% in June 2025, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%. As of June 2025, 12,587 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's. The workforce participation rate was 66.8%, similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio of 0.6 indicates a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth rates of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that median income in Carrum Downs is $53,792 and average income is $59,706. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $60,333 (median) and $66,966 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Carrum Downs rank modestly, between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 40.1% of locals (9,475 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrum Downs, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The latest Census data shows that in Carrum Downs, 79.1% of dwellings are houses with the remaining 20.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Melbourne metro has 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs stands at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented ones at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. The median weekly rent in Carrum Downs is $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Carrum Downs' mortgage repayments are below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has lower university qualification rates at 17.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 29.4%. Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Carrum Downs has 5 schools with a combined enrollment of 2,546 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1005). The educational mix includes 3 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are lower at 10.8 compared to the regional average of 14.8, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum Downs has 105 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 2,647 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 214 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 378 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrum Downs faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but to a higher degree among older cohorts. Approximately half of its total population (~11,696 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 10.3% of residents and asthma impacting 9.6%. A majority (65.6%) report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 65.0%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.3% (3,374 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Carrum Downs was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.9% of its residents born overseas and 18.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrum Downs, accounting for 40.7% of the population. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, comprising 0.3% of the population compared to the regional average of 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (27.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Other (9.5%). Some ethnic groups had significant differences in representation: Russian was higher at 0.6% compared to 0.5%, Sri Lankan was higher at 0.7% compared to 0.4%, and Maori was higher at 1.0% compared to 0.7%.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years but slightly below Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.2%) and fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.3%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population share of those aged 35-44 has increased from 14.6% to 15.7%, while the share of those aged 25-34 has decreased from 16.8% to 15.5%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Carrum Downs's age profile. The 65-74 cohort is projected to grow by 46%, adding 889 residents to reach a total of 2,830. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 50% of population growth, indicating prominent demographic aging trends. Conversely, the populations of those aged 25-34 and 5-14 are projected to decline.