Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carrum Downs' population is approximately 23,549 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,573 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 21,976. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates; Carrum Downs had an estimated resident population of 23,464 in June 2025 and gained 605 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,159 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other areas assessed by AreaSearch. Between 2021 and May 2026, Carrum Downs' population grew by 7.2%, outpacing its SA4 region (3.2%) and SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.8% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Carrum Downs is expected to experience above median population growth, increasing by 4,074 persons to 2041 and recording a total gain of 16.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrum Downs has seen approximately 103 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25517 homes were approved, with an additional 26 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 2.2 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five financial years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $265,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This year alone, $79.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has seen elevated construction activity, with 47.0% more approvals per person over the past five years, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. The new building activity shows a shift towards compact living, with 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, compared to the current housing pattern of 79.0% houses.

This change suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 1370 people per dwelling approval, Carrum Downs reflects a highly mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carrum Downs is projected to add 3,989 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience increased competition as the population grows.

Carrum Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 Mccormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrum Downs shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 4.8% as of December 2025. Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 2.1%. There are 12,814 residents in work currently, matching Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is also at Greater Melbourne's level of 69.9%.

According to Census responses, 16.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing sectors. The area has a strong specialization in construction with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The ratio of 0.6 workers per resident indicates above-average local employment opportunities. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, while labour force grew by 1.9%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Carrum Downs SA2 is $58,079 and average income is $63,489. This is lower than the national averages of a median income of $59,173 and an average income of $73,318. In Greater Melbourne, median income is $57,688 and average income is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from June 2023 to March 2026, estimated median income in Carrum Downs would be approximately $63,666 and average income would be around $69,597 as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Carrum Downs rank modestly, between the 45th and 52nd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The earnings profile shows that 40.1% of locals (9,443 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, reflecting a pattern seen in the region where 32.8% similarly occupy this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrum Downs, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile nationally.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carrum Downs' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs stood at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented ones at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent in Carrum Downs was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Carrum Downs indicates that there are currently 105 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops primarily serve buses, with a total of six individual routes providing service. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 1,566. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 214 meters to the nearest stop. Carrum Downs is predominantly residential, and most residents commute outward from the area. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation for residents, with a dominance rate of 93%.

On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions, approximately 16.4% of residents work from home. The service frequency across all routes averages 223 trips per day, equating to roughly 14 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies the analysis, illustrating the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Carrum Downs faces significant health challenges, as identified by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 50% of the total population (~11,892 people) having it, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. However, 65.6% of residents claim to have no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age adults face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 14.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,379 people), with senior health outcomes generally aligning with national rankings.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 25.9% of its population born overseas and 18.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrum Downs, accounting for 40.7% of people. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Other (9.5%). Notably, Russian (0.6%) and Maori (1.0%) were overrepresented, while Sri Lankan was slightly underrepresented at 0.7%.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs has a median age of 36 years, which is nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher concentration of residents aged 55-64 (12.1%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.5%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 14.6% to 16.1%, while the population aged 25-34 has declined from 16.8% to 15.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carrum Downs's age profile will evolve significantly. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 28%, adding 799 residents to reach 3,703. Conversely, the 0-4 age group is expected to contract by 14 residents.