Carrum Downs
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carrum Downs' population was around 23,630 as of Aug 2025. This reflected an increase of 1,654 people (7.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,976 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,345 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 569 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 1,163 persons per square kilometer, which was relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum Downs' 7.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.2%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 52.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of national statistical areas was projected, with the area expected to increase by 4,395 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of 17.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrum Downs has seen approximately 103 new homes approved annually. Development approval data from the ABS indicates 517 homes over five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with 20 approvals so far in FY-26. An average of 2.2 people per year have moved to the area for each new home constructed during these years, suggesting strong demand supporting property values. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $374,000, below the regional average, offering more affordable housing options.

This financial year has seen $79.1 million in commercial development approvals, indicating robust commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has slightly higher development levels (48.0% above the regional average per person over five years), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, though construction activity has recently eased. New development consists of 38.0% detached dwellings and 62.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to accommodate downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix (79.0% houses), likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands. Carrum Downs has around 1370 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area.

Population forecasts project an increase of 4,107 residents by 2041, with development keeping pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers is anticipated as the population expands.

Carrum Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, 21 McCormicks Road Townhouses, Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements, and Sandford Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Carrum Downs has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%. As of that date, 12,587 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Carrum Downs was 66.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

Construction is particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 4.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The resident-to-worker ratio was 0.6 at the Census, indicating a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels in Carrum Downs increased by 3.1%, while the labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% with a 4.0% increase in labour force and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. As of September 2025, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs. The state's unemployment rate was 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.5%. However, Victoria's employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 2022 for financial year 2021/22, Carrum Downs had a median income among taxpayers of $53,792. The average level stood at $59,706. This was below the national average and compared to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,230 (median) and $65,742 (average) as of March 2025. Census data revealed household incomes ranked at the 48th percentile, family incomes at the 45th percentile, and personal incomes at the 52nd percentile in Carrum Downs. Distribution data showed that 40.1% of locals (9,475 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where this cohort represented 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Carrum Downs, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs was at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented dwellings at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. The median weekly rent figure in Carrum Downs was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Carrum Downs' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.9%, consisting of 26.7% lone person households and 3.1% group households. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is high at 27.7%, including 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education. Carrum Downs has 5 schools with a combined enrollment of 2,546 students. It demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1005) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are 10.8, below the regional average of 14.8, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum Downs has 105 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 2,647 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is deemed good, with residents on average being located just 214 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 378 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrum Downs faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but to a higher degree among older residents. Approximately half of its total population (around 11,696 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Around two-thirds (65.6%) of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 65.0%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Carrum Downs was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 25.9% of its population born overseas and 18.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrum Downs, comprising 40.7% of its population. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented, making up 0.3% compared to the regional average of 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Other (9.5%). Notably, Russian (0.6%) and Sri Lankan (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Carrum Downs compared to their regional averages of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Additionally, the Maori population is also notably higher at 1.0%.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs's median age is nearly 37 years, slightly below Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.3%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 14.6% to 15.7%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 has decreased from 16.8% to 15.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carrum Downs's age profile. The 65-74 cohort is projected to grow by 46%, adding 889 residents to reach 2,830. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive half of the population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 25-34 and 5-14 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.