Carrum Downs

Population growth drivers in Carrum Downs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carrum Downs' population is approximately 23,590 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,614 people (7.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,976. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,345 in June 2024 and an additional 553 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,161 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrum Downs' growth rate of 7.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (3.1%) and the SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted through a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Carrum Downs is expected to have an above median population growth, with the area projected to increase by 4,395 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 17.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrum Downs recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrum Downs has seen approximately 103 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 517 homes were approved, with an additional 23 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 2.2 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $265,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $79.1 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs records elevated construction activity, with 48.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although development activity has moderated recently. New building activity shows a mix of 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 79.0% houses.

This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 1370 people per dwelling approval, Carrum Downs reflects a highly mature market. Future projections estimate that Carrum Downs will add approximately 4,147 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Carrum Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to affect the region. Notable projects include 42-50 Hall Road Townhouses, Lavender Hill Reserve Multi-use Courts, 21 McCormicks Road Townhouses, and Carrum Downs Recreation Reserve Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Carrum Downs shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrum Downs has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year.

As of that date, 12,766 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was at 66.8%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. The area shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio of 0.6 indicates a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.5% while the labour force grew by 2.8%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrum Downs' employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Carrum Downs SA2 was $53,792 and average income was $59,706. This is lower than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Carrum Downs would be approximately $60,333 and average income would be around $66,966 by the end of September 2025. According to the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, household incomes ranked at the 47th percentile, family incomes at the 48th percentile, and personal incomes at the 52nd percentile in Carrum Downs. The earnings profile indicates that 40.1% of locals (9,459 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, reflecting a pattern seen across the region where 32.8% fall within this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrum Downs, with only 81.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile nationally.

Carrum Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carrum Downs' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrum Downs stood at 22.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.0% and rented ones at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent in Carrum Downs was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Carrum Downs' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Carrum Downs has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 70.1% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Carrum Downs aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrum Downs has 105 active public transport stops. These are served by buses on six different routes. Each week, these routes facilitate 2,647 passenger trips in total.

The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 214 meters. On average, there are 378 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to about 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carrum Downs is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrum Downs experiences notable health challenges with common conditions being relatively prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Approximately half of its total population (~11,677 people) has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. However, 65.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 65.0%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.3% (3,368 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrum Downs was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrum Downs had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.9% of its population born overseas and 18.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrum Downs, accounting for 40.7% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.3% versus 0.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Other (9.5%). There were also notable differences in the representation of Russian (0.6% vs regional 0.5%), Sri Lankan (0.7% vs 0.4%), and Maori (1.0% vs 0.7%) groups compared to regional averages.

Carrum Downs's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrum Downs's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carrum Downs has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.3%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population share of those aged 35-44 has increased from 14.6% to 15.7%, while the share of those aged 25-34 has decreased from 16.8% to 15.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Carrum Downs's age profile. The 65-74 age group is projected to grow by 46%, adding 893 residents to reach a total of 2,830. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 50% of population growth, reflecting broader demographic aging trends. Conversely, the populations in the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decline.