Seaford (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Seaford reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Seaford (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is around 18,332. This figure reflects an increase of 1,117 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,215. The change was inferred from the resident population estimated at 18,072 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 290 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,478 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Seaford (Vic.) (SA2) saw a population growth of 6.5% since the 2021 census, exceeding the SA4 region's 4.0%. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Seaford (Vic.) (SA2) is expected to grow by 1,893 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.9% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Seaford when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Seaford shows an average of 84 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 420 homes. As of FY-26, 42 approvals have been recorded. The area has seen an average of 1.6 people moving in annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $500,000, targeting the premium segment.

In FY-26, $39.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Seaford has 54.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. New building activity comprises 39.0% standalone homes and 61.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the area's existing housing composition of 74.0% houses, suggesting decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. Seaford has a low density, with around 233 people per approval. Future projections estimate an increase of 1,633 residents by 2041.

Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Seaford has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 16 projects likely influencing the area. Key projects include Frankston Basketball and Gymnastics Stadium Redevelopment, Seaford Level Crossing Removal - Armstrongs Road & Station Street, 8A Klauer Street Industrial Development, and Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre Upgrade and Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Seaford remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Seaford has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9%.

As of September 2025, 9,313 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 61.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a high representation with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.5% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the Census working population count compared to resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 2.9%, labour force by 2.8%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Seaford's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023 indicates Seaford's median income among taxpayers is $53,931, with an average of $63,005. This is below the national average and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $58,380 (median) and $68,203 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals personal income ranks at the 51st percentile ($809 weekly), while household income sits at the 35th percentile. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 31.7% of the community (5,811 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 33rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Seaford is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Seaford, as per the latest Census evaluation, 73.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 26.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is in comparison to Melbourne metro's figures of 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Seaford stood at 28.7%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. The majority of dwellings were mortgaged (37.0%) or rented (34.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,850, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Weekly rent median stood at $351, slightly lower than Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Seaford's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were below the national figure of $375.

Seaford features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.9% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Seaford performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (26.2%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.0% in primary, 6.5% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 93 active transport stops in Seaford, offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 10 distinct routes, together facilitating 3,331 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is deemed good, with residents on average situated 224 meters from the nearest stop.

Services operate at an average frequency of 475 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Seaford is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Seaford faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 52% of the total population (~9,490 people). The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (10.2%) and asthma (9.3%), while 64.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 19.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,501 people), higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Seaford records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Seaford's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 86.9% being citizens, 78.9% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 40.4%. Judaism is slightly overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to 0.3% regionally.

The top three ancestral groups are English (29.9%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (9.4%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Russian (0.6% vs regional 0.5%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.4%), and Dutch (1.6% vs 1.8%) are relatively more prominent in Seaford.

Seaford's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Seaford has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is significantly over-represented in Seaford at 10.0%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average. Conversely, the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 9.2% to 10.3% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Seaford's age profile. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 506 people (41%), from 1,228 to 1,735. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 60% of total population growth, reflecting Seaford's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.