Seaford (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Seaford reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch's validation, Seaford's population was estimated at around 18,352 by February 2026. This reflected an increase of 1,137 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,215. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 18,072 residents following examination of ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 305 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level resulted in a density ratio of 1,480 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Seaford's growth of 6.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.1%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Seaford (Vic.) is expected to grow by 1,893 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Seaford when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Seaford averaged around 84 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 420 homes. So far in FY-26, 42 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 1.6 people moving to the area per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, the market shows good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $500,000, indicating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

Additionally, $39.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Seaford has 54.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. New building activity shows 39.0% standalone homes and 61.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 74.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. Seaford reflects a low density area with around 233 people per approval. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates that Seaford is expected to grow by 1,613 residents through to 2041.

Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Seaford has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones include Frankston Basketball and Gymnastics Stadium Redevelopment, Seaford Level Crossing Removal - Armstrongs Road & Station Street, 8A Klauer Street Industrial Development, and Seaford Child, Youth & Family Centre Upgrade and Expansion. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Seaford remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Seaford has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate was 5.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9%. As of September 2025, 9,313 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation lagged at 65.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 26.3% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Seaford has a high specialization in construction employment, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.5%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.9% while labour force grew by 2.8%, leading to a slight decrease in unemployment of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and labour force grow by 3.3%, with an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Seaford. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Seaford's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Seaford had a median taxpayer income of $53,931 and an average of $63,005. This is below the national average. Greater Melbourne's median was $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Seaford are approximately $58,380 (median) and $68,203 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals personal income ranks at the 51st percentile ($809 weekly), while household income sits at the 35th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 31.7% of Seaford's community (5,817 individuals), similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 81.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 33rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Seaford is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Seaford, as per the latest Census, 73.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 26.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Seaford stood at 28.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.0% and rented ones at 34.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Seaford was $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Seaford's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Seaford features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.9% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.1%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Seaford performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are common, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (26.2%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.0% in primary, 6.5% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 93 active transport stops operating within Seaford, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are served by 10 individual routes, collectively facilitating 3,331 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 224 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode at 90%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 475 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Seaford is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Seaford faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 52% of Seaford's total population (~9,500 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 10.2 and 9.3% of residents respectively. However, 64.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Seaford has 19.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,596 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Seaford records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Seaford's cultural diversity was comparable to the wider region, with 86.9% citizens, 78.9% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated Seaford, comprising 40.4%, while Judaism was overrepresented at 0.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English (29.9%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (9.4%), all higher than regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and 6.3% respectively.

Notably, Russian (0.6%) was overrepresented compared to the region's 0.4%. Hungarian and Dutch were also overrepresented at 0.4% and 1.6% respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 1.2%.

Seaford's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Seaford has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Seaford has a notably higher proportion of people aged 65-74 (10.2% locally) but fewer people aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between 2021 and present, the population aged 15-24 increased from 9.2% to 10.4%, while those aged 75-84 grew from 5.9% to 7.0%. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 25-34 decreased from 13.7% to 11.9%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Seaford's age profile by 2041. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 450 people (35%), growing from 1,284 to 1,735. Notably, the combined population aged 65 and above will account for 60% of total population growth, reflecting Seaford's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the populations aged 0-4 and 5-14 are expected to decline.