Chelsea Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chelsea Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates and new addresses validated by them, as of November 2025, the estimated population of Chelsea Heights is around 5,456. This reflects an increase of 63 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,393. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as of June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by ABS and five additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,705 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this population growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 60% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia's projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised the Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregated SA2-level projections, Chelsea Heights is expected to grow by approximately 638 persons by the year 2041, reflecting a gain of about 11.7% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Chelsea Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Chelsea Heights had approximately 7 new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 38 homes were approved, with 2 more approved in FY-26 so far. The population has declined recently, suggesting demand is being met by new supply.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $679,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. This financial year, $5.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chelsea Heights has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, development activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New building activity consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes. With around 1084 people per dwelling approval, Chelsea Heights reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate Chelsea Heights will gain 638 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Chelsea Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can affect an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Key projects include The Dell by Stockland, Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, and Frankston Line Level Crossing Removal Program, with the following list detailing those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Chelsea Heights lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Chelsea Heights has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 7.3%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 2,848 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Chelsea Heights mirrors Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Manufacturing stands out with a 1.6 times higher representation than the regional level, while professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The area's predominantly residential nature suggests limited local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Chelsea Heights' labour force increased by 1.4%, but employment declined by 1.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chelsea Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Chelsea Heights is $53,213 and average income is $64,351. This compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Chelsea Heights are approximately $59,684 (median) and $72,176 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 data indicates incomes in Chelsea Heights cluster around the 53rd percentile nationally. Income brackets show that 33.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to Melbourne's 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. Chelsea Heights' SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Chelsea Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chelsea Heights' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chelsea Heights was at 40.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.3% and rented ones at 13.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,001, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Chelsea Heights was $412, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Chelsea Heights' mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Chelsea Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.8% of all households, including 39.5% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Chelsea Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has lower university qualification rates at 24.7%, compared to the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common among qualifications, at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (24.1%) being prominent. Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.3%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (4.0%). Chelsea Heights Primary School serves the area, with an enrollment of 406 students as of a recent report. The school's socio-educational conditions are above average, with an ICSEA score of 1050. It offers primary education exclusively, while secondary options are available nearby due to limited local capacity (7.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.6). Many families thus travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 41 active public transport stops in Chelsea Heights. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling seven different services. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 1,486.

Residential accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with typical distances to the nearest stop being 154 meters. Service frequency averages 212 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chelsea Heights's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Chelsea Heights' health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (around 2,852 people), compared to 58.2% across Greater Melbourne. Asthma and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.6% and 7.8% of residents respectively. About 68.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. Approximately 19.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (around 1,080 people), which is broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Chelsea Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chelsea Heights, surveyed in June 2018, had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Its population comprised 26.1% born overseas and 17.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 48.5%.

Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 1.1% regionally. Ancestry-wise, top groups were English (25.5%), Australian (25.2%), and Other (8.4%). Notable divergences included Russian (0.9% vs regional 1.0%), Sri Lankan (1.2% vs 0.6%), and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.4%).

Chelsea Heights's median age exceeds the national pattern

Chelsea Heights has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75-84 age group is notably over-represented in Chelsea Heights at 8.1%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. Between 2021 and the present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.3% to 8.1% of the population, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.9% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 9.9% to 7.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Chelsea Heights' age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to increase by 185 people (42%), from 441 to 627. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.