Chelsea Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chelsea Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Chelsea Heights statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 5,456 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 63 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,393. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population based on the latest ABS ERP data release (June 2024) and five validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,705 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they utilise the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Chelsea Heights (SA2) is expected to grow by 638 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of approximately 11.7% over the 17-year period. This growth trend is expected to be just below the median of statistical areas across the nation.

The level of residential development activity in Chelsea Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Chelsea Heights has seen approximately seven new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY21 to FY25, around 38 homes were approved, with two more approved so far in FY26. The population decline in recent years suggests that the new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good choices for buyers.

The average construction value of new properties is $679,000, indicating a focus on premium market developments. This year, $65,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chelsea Heights has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This activity is also lower than the national average, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. The new building activity comprises 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

With around 1084 people per dwelling approval, Chelsea Heights reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 638 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Chelsea Heights has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of zero projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include The Dell by Stockland, Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2, and Frankston Line Level Crossing Removal Program. The following list details those most relevant.

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Chelsea Heights shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Chelsea Heights has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 6.9%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 2,821 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Chelsea Heights is equal to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Manufacturing shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Chelsea Heights' labour force increased by 0.4% while employment declined by 0.9%, resulting in a rise of 1.3 percentage points in unemployment rate. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. State-level data up to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Chelsea Heights' employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2023 indicates that median income in Chelsea Heights is $53,213 and average income stands at $64,351. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ended June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Chelsea Heights would be approximately $57,603 and average income would be around $69,660 by that date. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Chelsea Heights cluster around the 53rd percentile nationally. Income brackets show that 33.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999, aligning with metropolitan region's figure of 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Chelsea Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Chelsea Heights, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chelsea Heights stood at 40.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (46.3%) or rented (13.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,001, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Chelsea Heights was $412, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Chelsea Heights' mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Chelsea Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.8% of all households, including 39.5% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.2%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Chelsea Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.7%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 24.1%. Educational participation is high, with 28.9% currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.3% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Chelsea Heights indicates that there are currently 41 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 7 individual routes providing service. The collective weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 841.

The accessibility of transport for residents is rated as excellent, with an average distance of 153 meters from each residence to the nearest transport stop. The service frequency across all routes averages at 120 trips per day, which equates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chelsea Heights's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Chelsea Heights' health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population, which is around 2,852 people, compared to 59.5% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.6 and 7.8% of residents respectively. A total of 68.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 19.8% of residents are aged 65 and over, which equates to approximately 1,080 people. This is broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Chelsea Heights was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Chelsea Heights, surveyed in June 2016, exhibited higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 26.1% of its residents born overseas and 17.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 48.5% of the population as of 2016. Notably, Judaism was disproportionately represented in Chelsea Heights, comprising 0.3% compared to 1.1% across Greater Melbourne in the same year.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (25.5%), Australian (25.2%), and Other (8.4%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Russian was slightly overrepresented at 0.9%, Sri Lankan was more prevalent at 1.2%, and Hungarian remained steady at 0.4%.

Chelsea Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Chelsea Heights has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Chelsea Heights at 8.1%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.3% to 8.1% of the population, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.9% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 9.9% to 7.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Chelsea Heights' age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 185 people (42%) from 441 to 627. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.