Aspendale Gardens - Waterways
Statistical Area - sa2

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' population is approximately 9,099 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 246 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,853. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 9,099 in June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 1,713 persons per square kilometer. Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' growth rate of 2.8% since the Census places it within 2.8 percentage points of its SA3 area (5.6%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 87.2% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics suggest above median growth, with the area projected to expand by 1,114 persons to 2041, a gain of 12.2% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 26 homes over the past five financial years from FY-20 to FY-25, and one so far in FY-26. The area has experienced population decline, with development activity adequate relative to this trend. This has maintained an adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $804,000, indicating focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $13.7 million, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development compared to Greater Melbourne. Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has significantly less development activity than the regional average per person (91.0% below), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes due to constrained new construction. This activity is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, sustaining Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

The location has approximately 5451 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Population forecasts indicate Aspendale Gardens - Waterways will gain 1,114 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely to affect this region. Key initiatives include Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale, Aspendale Life Saving Club Redevelopment, Frankston Line Level Crossing Removals (Frankston Line, LXRP), and Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has been broadly consistent with national averages

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.5% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Workforce participation was 68.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Major employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Retail trade was particularly prominent, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 8.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force increased by 1.5%, but employment declined by 0.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and a smaller increase in unemployment. Statewide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year to September 2025, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment was forecast to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has high national incomes. The median income is $54,281 and the average income stands at $72,411. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,769 (median) and $79,732 (average) as of March 2025. The 2021 Census shows household incomes rank at the 86th percentile ($2,348 weekly), but personal income ranks lower at the 59th percentile. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.6% of the community (2,966 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same category. The substantial proportion of high earners (37.0% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Aspendale Gardens - Waterways. After housing costs, residents retain 87.1% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways had 85.3% houses and 14.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings) at the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways was 38.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.3% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,115, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure was $510, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways had significantly higher mortgage repayments ($2,115 vs $1,863) and substantially higher rents ($510 vs $375).

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.5% of all households, consisting of 51.8% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.5%, with lone person households at 13.9% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 31.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (17.7%). Educational participation is high at 30.7%, comprising secondary education (9.7%), primary education (9.6%), and tertiary education (5.9%).

Aspendale Gardens Primary School serves Aspendale Gardens - Waterways, with an enrollment of 604 students. This area shows above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1094). The one school focuses on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 6.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.7, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways shows 23 active transport stops operating, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 8 individual routes that collectively facilitate 1,910 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 245 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 272 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 83 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows strong health performance in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways, particularly among younger residents with low prevalence of common conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 55% (~5031 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 58.2%.

Common medical conditions are asthma (6.9%) and arthritis (6.2%), with 74.2% reporting no ailments, compared to 70.4% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.2% of residents aged 65+ (1652 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 19.3%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale Gardens-Waterways has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.7% of its residents born overseas and 32.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Aspendale Gardens-Waterways, accounting for 50.9% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.7% of Aspendale Gardens-Waterays residents identifying as Jewish (versus 1.1% regionally).

The top three ancestry groups in Aspendale Gardens-Waterways are English at 20.2%, Australian at 19.3%, and Other at 12.6%. Notably, Sri Lankan, Greek, and Polish ethnicities are overrepresented compared to the regional averages: Sri Lankan at 1.3% (versus 0.6%), Greek at 3.9% (versus 3.3%), and Polish at 1.1% (versus 1.0%).

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group makes up 15.6% of the population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort constitutes only 8.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 13.9% to 15.6%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 5.1% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 17.5% to 15.3%, and the 5 to 14 group has dropped from 13.7% to 12.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Aspendale Gardens - Waterways. Notably, the 65 to 74 age group is expected to grow by 49%, reaching 1,255 people from 844. The combined 65+ age groups will account for 82% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.