Aspendale Gardens - Waterways

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, the population of Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is around 9,099 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 246 people (2.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,853 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,099 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,713 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's 2.8% growth since the census positions it within 2.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 87.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,114 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 12.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has recorded around 4 residential properties granted approval annually, with 23 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 1 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $646,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $13.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has significantly less development activity (91.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Meanwhile, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 5451 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Future projections show Aspendale Gardens - Waterways adding 1,114 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 5 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale, The Strand Aspendale, and Dingley Village (former Kingswood Golf Course), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has been broadly consistent with national averages

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of only 3.6%. As of December 2025, 5,229 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 31.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area has a particular employment specialization in retail trade, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 8.1% of Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.3% while employment declined by 0.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Aspendale Gardens - Waterways. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Aspendale Gardens - Waterways SA2 is very high nationally, with the median assessed at $57,539 while the average income stands at $75,932. This contrasts to Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $62,286 (median) and $82,196 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 85th percentile ($2,348 weekly), though personal income ranks lower at the 58th percentile. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.6% of the community (2,966 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same category. The substantial proportion of high earners (37.0% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Aspendale Gardens - Waterways. After housing costs, residents retain 87.1% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Aspendale Gardens - Waterways, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.3% houses and 14.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Aspendale Gardens - Waterways was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 38.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (50.3%) or rented (11.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,115, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $510, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 85.5% of all households, comprising 51.8% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.5%, with lone person households at 13.9% and group households comprising 0.8% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (31.9%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (17.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in secondary education, 9.6% in primary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 23 active transport stops operating within Aspendale Gardens - Waterways, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 1,092 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 245 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 31.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 156 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Aspendale Gardens - Waterways, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~5,150 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.9% and 6.2% of residents, respectively, while 74.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 19.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,749 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways scores quite highly on cultural diversity, with 35.7% of its population born overseas and 32.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is Christianity, which makes up 50.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.7% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways are English, comprising 20.2% of the population, Australian, comprising 19.3% of the population, and Other, comprising 12.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Aspendale Gardens - Waterways (vs 0.8% regionally), Polish at 1.1% (vs 0.8%) and Greek at 3.9% (vs 2.7%).

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is significantly above Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 55 - 64 age group shows strong representation at 15.8% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 13.9% to 15.8% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 5.1% to 6.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 17.5% to 15.0% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 13.7% to 11.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Aspendale Gardens - Waterways. Leading the demographic shift, the 65 to 74 group will grow by 41% (367 people), reaching 1,255 from 887. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.