Aspendale Gardens - Waterways

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' population, as of February 2026, is approximately 9,099, reflecting an increase of 246 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.8% rise from the previous population count of 8,853. The change is inferred from ABS estimates, with a resident population of 9,099 in June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,713 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 2.8% since the census is comparable to its SA3 area's growth of 5.6%, indicating strong fundamentals for population growth. Overseas migration contributed approximately 87.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is projected to grow by an additional 1,114 persons, reflecting a total gain of 12.2% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

The level of residential development activity in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has approximately 4 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 23 homes were approved, with one more granted in FY26 so far. The population has been declining recently, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $646,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. This financial year, commercial development approvals totaled $13.7 million, showing moderate levels of commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has significantly less development activity, with 91.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent development has been entirely detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes.

The location has approximately 5451 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Future projections estimate Aspendale Gardens - Waterways to add 1,114 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects likely to impact the area. Key projects are Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale, The Strand Aspendale, and Dingley Village (former Kingswood Golf Course).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has been broadly consistent with national averages

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 3.6%. In this month, 5,252 residents are employed while the area's unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways matches Greater Melbourne's figure of 71.0%. According to Census data, 31.2% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Retail trade is particularly strong with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented at 8.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' labour force grew by 0.5% while employment decreased by 0.7%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for local population changes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Aspendale Gardens - Waterways SA2 has a very high national income median of $57,539 and an average income of $75,932. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $62,286 (median) and $82,196 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' household income ranks at the 85th percentile ($2,348 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 58th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 32.6% of individuals in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 earnings band, consistent with broader regional trends. A substantial proportion, 37.0%, earn above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 87.1% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.3% houses and 14.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways was at 38.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.3% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,115, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $510, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,115 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.5% of all households, including 51.8% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.5%, with lone person households at 13.9% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 31.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 17.7%. Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.7% in secondary education, 9.6% in primary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has 23 operational public transport stops. These are served by eight different bus routes, offering a total of 1092 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 245 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Car remains the primary mode of transportation for 91% of residents. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, above the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 31.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 156 trips per day, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

AreaSearch's assessment shows excellent health outcomes in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age groups. Private health cover was high at approximately 57% of the total population (~5,150 people). The most common medical conditions were asthma (6.9%) and arthritis (6.2%). A significant majority, 74.2%, reported no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.2% (1,749 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale Gardens-Waterways has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.7% of its population born overseas and 32.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Aspendale Gardens-Waterways, making up 50.9% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.7% of Aspendale Gardens-Waterways' population identifying as Jewish versus 1.0% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups in Aspendale Gardens-Waterays are English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (12.6%). Notably, Sri Lankan (1.3%) Polish (1.1%), and Greek (3.9%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to their regional percentages of 0.8%, 0.8%, and 2.7% respectively.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 15.8% of the population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 13.9% to 15.8%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 5.1% to 6.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 17.5% to 15.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 13.7% to 11.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways, with the 65 to 74 cohort projected to grow by 41% (367 people), reaching 1,255 from 887. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.