Aspendale Gardens - Waterways

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' population was around 9,063 as of May 2026. This showed an increase of 210 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,853. The growth was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 9,063 in June 2025 and seven new addresses validated after the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 1,706 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 94.5% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest ERP population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 1,054 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 11.6% over 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has recorded approximately four residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 23 homes were approved, with one more approved in FY26 so far. The population has been declining recently, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $646,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year, $13.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting moderate levels of commercial development compared to Greater Melbourne, where Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has significantly less development activity, 91.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, development activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent development has consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

The location currently has approximately 5451 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is projected to add 1054 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of five projects that are likely to impact this particular area. Among these key projects are Aspendale Gardens Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rossdale Golf Course Redevelopment Aspendale, The Strand Aspendale, and Dingley Village (former Kingswood Golf Course). The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has been broadly consistent with national averages

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. As of December 2025, its unemployment rate is 3.6%. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's rate is 4.8%, and Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' workforce participation is similar at 69.7%.

A high proportion of residents work from home, with 31.2% doing so according to Census responses. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Retail trade is particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 8.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' labour force decreased by 0.3% while employment declined by 0.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Aspendale Gardens - Waterways SA2 has high national postcode level ATO incomes. The median is $57,539 and the average is $75,932. Greater Melbourne's median income is $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since FY2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 are approximately $63,074 (median) and $83,237 (average). The 2021 Census ranks household incomes at the 85th percentile ($2,348 weekly), while personal income is at the 58th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 32.6% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.1% of their income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.3% houses and 14.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways stood at 38.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.3% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,115, above Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $510, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aspendale Gardens - Waterways' mortgage repayments were higher at $2,115 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.5% of all households, including 51.8% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.5%, with lone person households at 13.9% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 31.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.0%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 17.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in secondary education, 9.6% in primary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways has 23 active public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by 8 routes, offering a total of 1,092 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically living 245 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, with cars being the dominant mode at 91%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 31.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 156 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

AreaSearch's assessment shows excellent health outcomes in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are low across both young and old age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (~5,129 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.9%) and arthritis (6.2%). 74.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. 18.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,683 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aspendale Gardens-Waterways has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.7% of its population born overseas and 32.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Aspendale Gardens-Waterways, accounting for 50.9% of the population. While Judaism makes up only 0.7% of the population, this figure is higher than the regional average of 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (12.6%). Some ethnic groups have notable representation in Aspendale Gardens-Waterways: Sri Lankan at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 0.8%, Polish at 1.1% versus 0.8%, and Greek at 3.9% against a regional average of 2.7%.

Aspendale Gardens - Waterways's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group constitutes 15.8% of the population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort comprises 8.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 55 to 64 age group grew from 13.9% to 15.8%, and the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 8.6% to 9.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 17.5% to 14.9%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 13.7% to 11.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Aspendale Gardens - Waterways, with the 65 to 74 group expected to grow by 41% (360 people), reaching 1,234 from 873. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.