Frankston South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The Frankston South statistical area's population was estimated at 19,250 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 449 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,801. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 19,214 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 113 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,322 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston South's growth rate of 2.4% since the census is within 1.6 percentage points of the SA4 region's 4.0%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with the Frankston South (SA2) expected to grow by 2,011 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 10.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frankston South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frankston South averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 217 homes. As of April 2026, 13 approvals have been recorded. Despite a population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $678,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment. Commercial approvals totalled $11.6 million in FY26, showing moderate commercial development levels. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston South has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 46th percentile nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. However, recent development activity has increased, though it remains below the national average, suggesting established nature and potential planning limitations.

New building activity shows 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options across various price brackets. This is a significant change from the current housing mix of 86.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands. Frankston South has approximately 362 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. AreaSearch estimates project a population growth of 1,975 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Frankston South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 10 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are: 59 Culcairn Drive Townhouse Development - Frankston South (commenced Aug '21), Towerhill Road Schools Precinct Shared Path (commenced Feb '20), Bayside Mixed-Use Precinct Development (commenced Jun '18), and Peninsula Link Freeway (opened Nov '13). Below is a list of projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Frankston South demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Frankston South has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.1% as of September 2025.

Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 2.2%. This is lower than Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 3.0%, but higher than Victoria's state average of 1.13%. Frankston South's unemployment rate was 2.6% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Frankston South was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%.

The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, the area has a high concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence, with only 2.8% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.2%. Over the past year, employment increased by 2.2%, while the labour force grew by 2.6%. This resulted in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13%, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment growth was 0.14% with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Frankston South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by similar rates, assuming constant population growth.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Frankston South's median income among taxpayers is $55,710. The average income in the suburb is $68,441. Nationally, the median income is $57,688 and the average is $75,164. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%, Frankston South's estimated median income would be approximately $60,306 and the average would be around $74,087. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Frankston South cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 28.5% of the population, equating to 5,486 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range. This is similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this income range. Economic strength is evident with 31.8% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting increased consumer spending. Housing expenses account for 14.4% of total income. Strong earnings place residents within the 71st percentile for disposable income. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Frankston South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frankston South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.0% houses and 14.1% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston South was higher at 38.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, above Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Frankston South was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston South's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Frankston South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.5% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Frankston South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate of 30.3% exceeds the SA3 average of 21.6% and the SA4 region's rate of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.6% and graduate diplomas at 4.0%. Vocational credentials are held by 34.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 21.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.4% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston South has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 1,352 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 267 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency across all routes averages 193 trips per day, which equates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston South faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~10,373 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.7% and 7.9% of residents respectively. A total of 67.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.0% across Greater Melbourne. As of the latest data (2016), 22.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (4,312 people), higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Frankston South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston South's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 77.7% born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 90.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 42.8%. Judaism is slightly overrepresented, comprising 0.2% compared to 0.3% regionally.

The top ancestry groups are English (31.5%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) is proportionately equal with the regional average, Dutch (1.9%) is slightly overrepresented, and Russian (0.4%) is slightly underrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne.

Frankston South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Frankston South's median age stands at 44, surpassing Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and significantly exceeding the national average of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.0% of Frankston South's population compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 6.6%. Post the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.9% to 12.2%, whereas the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 8.3% to 6.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Frankston South's age profile. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 42%, reaching 2,185 people from the current 1,540. Notably, those aged 65 and above will account for 63% of projected population growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 5-14 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.