Frankston South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Frankston South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Frankston South's population was estimated at 19,204 as of November 2025, based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by them. This figure reflects a growth of 403 people (2.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,801. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 19,214 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 113 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,319 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston South's growth rate of 2.1% since census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains in recent periods.

For future projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by 2,011 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 10.5% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frankston South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frankston South averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 217 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction cost value for new properties is $678,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment.

In FY-26, commercial approvals reached $11.6 million, reflecting moderate levels of commercial development. Comparatively, Frankston South has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person when measured against Greater Melbourne. Nationally, it ranks in the 46th percentile of areas assessed, implying relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. Recent periods have seen increased development activity, though this remains below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises approximately 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options to cater to various price brackets.

This marks a significant shift from the current housing mix of 86.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. Frankston South has an estimated population density of approximately 362 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to grow by 2,021 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Frankston South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include 59 Culcairn Drive Townhouse Development - Frankston South, Peninsula Link Freeway, Towerhill Road Schools Precinct Shared Path, and Frankston Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Frankston South demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Frankston South has a highly educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year. As of June 2025, 10,010 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 2.8% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment in Frankston South increased by 3.7%, while the labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years in Frankston South, applying industry-specific projections to the local employment mix for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Frankston South had a median income among taxpayers of $55,710 and an average of $68,441. This is higher than the national average. Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Frankston South would be approximately $62,484 (median) and $76,763 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that incomes in Frankston South cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 28.5% of residents fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, which is similar to the broader area at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 31.8% of households earning over $3,000 weekly. Housing expenses account for 14.4% of income, and residents rank high in disposable income at the 71st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Frankston South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frankston South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 86.0% houses and 14.1% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro had 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston South was 38.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863. Rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Frankston South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.5% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Frankston South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Frankston South's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 30.3% of residents aged 15+, exceeding the SA3 area average of 21.6% and the SA4 regional average of 23.5%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 34.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 21.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education. Frankston South has five schools with a combined enrollment of 1,764 students, demonstrating typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1046) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes two primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (9.2) fall below the regional average (14.8), with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston South has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that collectively facilitate 2,165 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located 268 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 309 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston South faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 54%, covering about 10,349 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.2%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.7% and 7.9% of residents respectively. About 67.4% of residents declared they were completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.0% in Greater Melbourne. In Frankston South, 22.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (4,301 people), higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Frankston South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston South's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 77.7% born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 90.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 42.8%. Judaism is overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.3%.

Top ancestry groups are English (31.5%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (8.9%). Hungarian (0.4%) and Dutch (1.9%) are notably overrepresented, while Russian shows a slight divergence at 0.4% compared to the regional average of 0.5%.

Frankston South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Frankston South's median age is 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group makes up 8.0% of Frankston South's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage. However, the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 6.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.9% to 12.2%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 8.3% to 6.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates Frankston South's age profile will significantly change. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 42%, reaching 2,185 people from the current 1,536. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, comprising 63% of the projected population increase. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to experience population declines.