Cheltenham (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Cheltenham are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Cheltenham (Vic.) population is estimated at around 25,677, reflecting a 1,685 person increase since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 7.0% rise from the previous population count of 23,992 people. The resident population estimate of 25,397 by AreaSearch, based on latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), and additional validated new addresses since Census date, indicates this growth. This results in a density ratio of 2,440 persons per square kilometer, placing Cheltenham (Vic.) in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cheltenham (Vic.) has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Cheltenham (Vic.) is expected to grow by 5,778 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 22.5% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cheltenham among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Cheltenham recorded around 185 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 925 homes. So far in FY-26, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 people moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this has intensified to 5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $614,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This year, $45.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Building activity shows 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 58.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

Cheltenham reflects a developing area with around 201 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate Cheltenham will gain 5,784 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 22 infrastructure projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Sanctuary Sandringham, Suburban Rail Loop East - Cheltenham Station, Cheltenham Precinct Structure Plan - Suburban Rail Loop East, and Banksia Apartments Cheltenham. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Cheltenham has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Cheltenham has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate is 6.0%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 13,829 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Finance & insurance has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 3.3% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.6% while employment declined by 0.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cheltenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates median income in Cheltenham suburb is $60,012 and average income is $77,720. This compares to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.25% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Cheltenham would be approximately $64,963 and average income would be around $84,132 by that date. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Cheltenham cluster around the 65th percentile nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 29.0% of locals (7,446 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, which is consistent with broader trends in the surrounding region at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it within the 8th decile.

Cheltenham displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Cheltenham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 58.4% houses and 41.6% other dwellings including semi-detached properties, apartments, and others. Home ownership in Cheltenham stood at 33.8%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 38.3% and rented dwellings at 27.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $430. Nationally, Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cheltenham has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.4 people

Family households constitute 68.5% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.5%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 38.4% among residents aged 15+ exceeding the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 12.2% and certificates make up 16.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cheltenham's public transport system consists of 134 active stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 27 individual routes, offering a total of 6,161 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 195 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 880 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 45 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cheltenham's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Cheltenham residents exhibit relatively positive health outcomes, with common conditions seen equally among younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 58% (~14,764 people). Mental health issues affect 7.8%, while asthma impacts 7.6%. Around 70.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 19.0% residents aged 65 and over (4,878 people), aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cheltenham was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham's population showed high cultural diversity, with 31.3% born overseas and 25.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cheltenham, accounting for 46.1% of its population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 1.5% of Cheltenham's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (23.9%), Australian (21.0%), and Other (10.2%). Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Russian at 1.2%, Greek at 4.6%, and Hungarian at 0.4% compared to regional figures.

Cheltenham's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Cheltenham's median age is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Cheltenham at 14.1%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.2% to 11.0% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 11.2%. By 2041, Cheltenham's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 1,128 people (65%), increasing from 1,746 to 2,875 residents. Conversely, the 0-4 age group is projected to decrease by 17 residents.