Cheltenham (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Cheltenham are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Cheltenham (Vic.) is around 25,707. This reflects an increase of 1,715 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,992. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 25,397 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 506 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,443 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cheltenham has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing the SA4 region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Cheltenham (Vic.) is expected to grow by 5,784 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 22.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cheltenham among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cheltenham recorded approximately 185 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 925 homes. As of FY-26, 14 approvals have been granted. On average, 1.5 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this ratio intensified to 5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $614,000, targeting the premium market segment.

In FY-26, $45.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high local commercial activity. Building activity comprises 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium to high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring diverse, affordable housing options. Cheltenham's population growth is projected to add 5,767 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite increased competition among buyers.

Population forecasts indicate Cheltenham will gain 5,767 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Sanctuary Sandringham, Suburban Rail Loop East - Cheltenham Station, Cheltenham Precinct Structure Plan - Suburban Rail Loop East, and Banksia Apartments Cheltenham. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Cheltenham has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Cheltenham's workforce is well-educated with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 was 6.0%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. In this month, 13,819 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 39.3% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. The area has a notable concentration in finance & insurance with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

However, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence with 3.3% employment compared to the regional average of 5.2%. There were 0.7 workers for each resident as per the Census, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.6% while employment declined by 0.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cheltenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Cheltenham is $60,012 and average income is $77,720. For Greater Melbourne, median income is $57,688 and average income is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $64,963 (median) and $84,132 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Cheltenham are at the 65th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.0% of locals fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, with surrounding regions showing 32.8% in the same bracket. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile and SEIFA income ranking places Cheltenham in the 8th decile.

Cheltenham displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Cheltenham, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 58.4% houses and 41.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's dwelling structure of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. In Cheltenham, the level of home ownership was 33.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.3% and rented dwellings at 27.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cheltenham was $2,200 as of June 2019, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $430 during the same period. Nationally, Cheltenham's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 reported in December 2020, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 recorded in June 2021.

Cheltenham has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.5% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.5%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 38.4% for residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 16.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cheltenham has 134 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 27 individual routes that together provide 6,161 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 195 meters. In this primarily residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 84% of residents, while 7% use trains. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 39.3% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 880 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 45 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this information and shows the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

The level of general health in Cheltenham is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cheltenham shows above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 58% of Cheltenham's total population (~14,781 people) has private health cover, indicating a very high rate. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (7.8%) and asthma (7.6%), while 70.3% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65s in Cheltenham have better-than-average health outcomes. The area has 19.8% of residents aged 65 and over (5,089 people), which is higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, though it ranks lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cheltenham was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham's population, born overseas, was 31.3%. Speaking a language other than English at home, 25.1% of Cheltenham residents did so. Christianity dominated the religious landscape with 46.1%.

Judaism, though small in number overall, was overrepresented at 1.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. For ancestry, English comprised 23.9%, Australian 21.0%, and Other 10.2%. Notably, Russian (1.2% vs regional 0.4%), Greek (4.6% vs 2.7%), and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%) groups were overrepresented in Cheltenham compared to the region.

Cheltenham's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Cheltenham has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Cheltenham has an over-representation of the 75-84 age group (7.2% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (10.8%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.1% to 7.2% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 10.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Cheltenham's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 1,022 people (55%), increasing from 1,850 to 2,873. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 31 people (2%).