Cheltenham (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Cheltenham are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Cheltenham (Vic.) is around 26,278. This figure reflects an increase of 2,286 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,992. The latest estimate of 26,202 by AreaSearch, based on examination of the ABS's ERP data release from June 2025 and validation of new addresses, shows this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 2,497 persons per square kilometer, placing Cheltenham in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 9.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeds both its SA4 region (8.0%) and the state average, indicating it as a growth leader. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these trends and aggregated SA2-level projections, Cheltenham is expected to grow by 5,454 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 20.5% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cheltenham among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Cheltenham recorded approximately 194 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 971 homes. As of FY-26, 65 approvals have been recorded. On average, one person moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction cost value for new homes over this period was $614,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $45.9 million, reflecting high local commercial activity. New building activity comprised 18.0% detached dwellings and 82.0% medium to high-density housing, providing more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift away from the area's current 58.0% houses indicates decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring diverse housing options. Cheltenham's population growth is projected at around 168 people per approval, with an expected increase of 5,378 residents by 2041 (AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

Current construction rates appear aligned with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 20 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Sanctuary Sandringham, Suburban Rail Loop East - Cheltenham Station, Cheltenham Precinct Structure Plan - Suburban Rail Loop East, and Banksia Apartments Cheltenham. The following list details projects of greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Cheltenham has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Cheltenham has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 5.6% as of December 2025, which is 0.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Cheltenham was 67.7%, slightly below Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

According to Census responses, 39.3% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Finance & insurance had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. However, transport, postal & warehousing had limited presence with 3.3% employment compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicated a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.2% while employment declined by 0.2%, maintaining a relatively stable unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimated that Cheltenham's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Cheltenham has high incomes nationally. The median income is $60,012 and the average income stands at $77,720. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,785 (median) and $85,197 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows that incomes in Cheltenham cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 29.0% of locals (7,620 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, leaving disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cheltenham displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cheltenham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 58.4% houses and 41.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cheltenham stood at 33.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.3% and rented dwellings at 27.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Cheltenham was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,200 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cheltenham has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 68.5% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for 31.5%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 38.4% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 16.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cheltenham has 134 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 27 different routes that together facilitate 6,161 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 195 meters to the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. The car remains the primary mode of transport, used by 84% of residents, while 7% use the train. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 39.3%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 880 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 45 weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

The level of general health in Cheltenham is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cheltenham shows above-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions among its general population is low but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 58% (~15,109 people) of Cheltenham's total population has private health cover, a rate found to be very high. Mental health issues and asthma were identified as the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.8 and 7.6% of residents respectively. Around 70.3% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population in Cheltenham demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 19.5% of residents aged 65 and over (5,124 people), which is higher than the 15.0% figure for Greater Melbourne but ranks lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cheltenham was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham, as per the data, has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 31.3% of its population born overseas and 25.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cheltenham, accounting for 46.1% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Cheltenham compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 1.5% versus 1.0%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are English (23.9%), Australian (21.0%), and Other (10.2%). There are also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Russian is notably higher at 1.2% compared to the regional average of 0.4%, Greek at 4.6% versus 2.7%, and Hungarian at 0.4% compared to 0.3%.

Cheltenham's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Cheltenham's median age is 40, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 75-84 age group is notably over-represented in Cheltenham at 7.1%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.2% to 11.2% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 11.1%. By 2041, Cheltenham's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is expected to expand by 1,000 people (28%), growing from 3,600 to 4,601. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 1% (19 people).