Cheltenham (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Cheltenham are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Cheltenham (Vic.) is around 25,707. This represents an increase of 1,715 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,992. The current population was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 25,397 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 506 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,443 persons per square kilometer, placing Cheltenham in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cheltenham has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outperforming the SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and using VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels for areas not covered by ABS data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Cheltenham (Vic.) is expected to grow by 5,729 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 21.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cheltenham among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Cheltenham recorded around 194 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 971 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $614,000, targeting the premium market segment. This financial year has seen $45.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Building activity shows 18.0% detached dwellings and 82.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 58.0% houses) reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

Cheltenham has around 169 people per approval, indicating a developing area. Population forecasts suggest Cheltenham will gain 5,419 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Cheltenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are Sanctuary Sandringham, Suburban Rail Loop East - Cheltenham Station, Cheltenham Precinct Structure Plan - Suburban Rail Loop East, and Banksia Apartments Cheltenham. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Cheltenham has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Cheltenham's workforce is highly educated with strong professional services representation. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate was 5.7%. Over the past year, employment remained relatively stable.

The area had an unemployment rate of 0.9% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 69.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A significant 39.3% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Finance & insurance had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

However, transport, postal & warehousing had limited presence with 3.3% employment compared to 5.2% regionally. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.7, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.3%, while employment declined by 0.3%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 5.7%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cheltenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Cheltenham has a high median assessed income of $60,012 and an average income of $77,720. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $64,963 (median) and $84,132 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates that Cheltenham's household, family, and personal incomes are at the 65th percentile nationally. In terms of income distribution, 29.0% of locals (7,455 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% are in the same category. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cheltenham displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cheltenham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 58.4% houses and 41.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cheltenham stood at 33.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.3% and rented ones at 27.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cheltenham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,200 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $430 compared to the national figure of $375.

Cheltenham has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.5 percent of all households, including 32.8 percent couples with children, 23.7 percent couples without children, and 10.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.5 percent, with lone person households at 28.9 percent and group households making up 2.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cheltenham shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 38.4%, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 16.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cheltenham has 134 active public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 27 different routes that together facilitate approximately 6,161 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport options is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 195 meters away from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most inhabitants commute outward for work or other purposes. Currently, cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 84% of residents, while train travel accounts for 7%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in Cheltenham.

According to the 2021 Census data (which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions), a significant portion of residents, specifically 39.3%, work from home. The service frequency across all routes averages approximately 880 trips per day, which translates to roughly 45 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cheltenham is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cheltenham shows above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is very high in Cheltenham, with approximately 58% of the total population (~14,781 people) having it. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.8 and 7.6% of residents respectively. A total of 70.3% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population in Cheltenham has better than average health outcomes. The area has 20.2% of residents aged 65 and over (5,192 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne but ranks lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cheltenham was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cheltenham, surveyed in June 2021, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 31.3% of its population born overseas and 25.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.1%. Judaism, however, was more prevalent in Cheltenham at 1.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.9%), Australian (21.0%), and Other (10.2%). Notable differences existed for Russian (Cheltenham: 1.2% vs regional: 0.4%), Greek (Cheltenham: 4.6% vs regional: 2.7%), and Hungarian (Cheltenham: 0.4% vs regional: 0.3%) groups.

Cheltenham's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Cheltenham's median age is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group is notably over-represented in Cheltenham at 7.3%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.1% to 7.3% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Cheltenham's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 972 people (52%), increasing from 1,876 to 2,849. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 2% (25 people).