Heatherton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Heatherton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Heatherton statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 2,853 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 27 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,826. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,814 in June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 3 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 400 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, Heatherton has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outpacing its surrounding SA3 area. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, an above median population growth is expected for the Heatherton (SA2), with an anticipated increase of 614 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 27.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Heatherton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis indicates Heatherton had approximately 4 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 24 homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. The average population increase for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 was 3.1 people per year, showing demand exceeding supply. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $465,000.

This financial year has seen $12.0 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Heatherton has significantly reduced construction levels, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Recent construction comprises 17.0% detached dwellings and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 82.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 986 people, reflecting Heatherton's quiet development environment. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Heatherton will grow by 770 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Looking ahead, Heatherton is expected to grow by 770 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Heatherton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Ten projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include: Key Industrial Park - Stage 3, SRL East Heatherton Train Stabling Facility, SRL East Works Package C Tunnels Cheltenham To Glen Waverley, and Kingston Heath Residential Estate. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Heatherton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Heatherton's workforce is highly educated with significant representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate stands at 8.0%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 1,623 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Heatherton is 68.5%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services.

However, education & training shows lower representation at 7.1% compared to the regional average of 9.2%. The area functions as an employment hub with a ratio of 2.6 workers per resident, attracting workers from nearby regions. In the year ending September 2025, Heatherton's labour force increased by 0.3%, while employment declined by 1.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a slight increase in unemployment. Statewide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-November 2025, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heatherton's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data from financial year 2023 shows Heatherton's median taxpayer income was $56,686 and the average was $71,285. These figures are higher than national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne respectively. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $61,363 (median) and $77,166 (average), based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data reveals Heatherton's household, family, and personal incomes cluster around the 68th percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort in Heatherton is 32.4% (924 people) earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 30.2% of households, indicating strong consumer spending. However, high housing costs consume 16.8% of income. Despite this, disposable income remains at the 70th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Heatherton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Heatherton, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.2% houses and 17.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heatherton stood at 29.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.1% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,224, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Heatherton was $471, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Heatherton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Heatherton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.7% of all households, including 43.4% composed of couples with children, 21.0% consisting of couples without children, and 12.0% being single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Heatherton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

In Heatherton Trail, 36.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the SA4 region's 46.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.2% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 17.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.3% in primary education, 11.0% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Heatherton has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 1,151 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Heatherton is rated as good, with residents located an average of 292 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 164 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

Heatherton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Heatherton. Both young and elderly cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover stands at approximately 55% of the total population (around 1,568 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 59.5%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.9 and 6.4% of residents respectively. A significant 74.3% report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 70.4% in Greater Melbourne. Heatherton has 14.9% of its population aged 65 and over (425 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 19.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with the general population's health profile.

Heatherton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Heatherton's cultural diversity is notable, with 31.9% speaking a language other than English at home and 38.4% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 47.4%. However, Judaism is overrepresented at 3.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.1%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (18.9%) and English (18.5%) are the top groups, with Other (15.1%) substantially higher than regional averages. Some ethnicities show notable divergences: South African (2.2% vs 0.6%), Russian (2.1% vs 1.0%), and Polish (1.7% vs 1.0%).

Heatherton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Heatherton's median age is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 45-54 age group is notably over-represented in Heatherton at 17.3%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average and the national figure of 12.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.1% to 14.7%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 18.7% to 17.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Heatherton's age profile will change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to expand by 157 people (32%), growing from 493 to 651. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group is expected to grow modestly by 5 people (6%).