Heatherton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Heatherton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Heatherton's estimated population is around 2,859, reflecting a 33-person increase since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 1.2% rise from the previous figure of 2,826 people. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 2,811, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024 and validation of three new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of approximately 401 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Heatherton has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. The primary driver for population growth was overseas migration, contributing about 86% of overall gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Heatherton is expected to exhibit above median population growth nationally, with an anticipated increase of 616 persons by 2041. This represents a total gain of 26.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Heatherton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Heatherton has experienced around 4 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past 5 financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 24 homes. So far in FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded.

Over these 5 years, an average of 3.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. Demand has significantly exceeded new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $465,000, aligned with broader regional development trends. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Heatherton shows substantially reduced construction levels, 69.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new properties typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This level is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction in Heatherton comprises 17.0% detached dwellings and 83.0% townhouses or apartments.

This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 82.0% houses. The estimated count of 845 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Heatherton is expected to grow by 766 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Heatherton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Ten infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Key Industrial Park - Stage 3, SRL East Heatherton Train Stabling Facility, SRL East - Works Package C - Tunnels - Cheltenham To Glen Waverley, and Kingston Heath Residential Estate. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Heatherton shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Heatherton has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 7.9%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 1,624 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation stands at 68.5%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services.

Conversely, education & training shows lower representation at 7.1% compared to the regional average of 9.2%. With a ratio of 2.6 workers per resident, as recorded in the Census, Heatherton functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force increased by 1.0% while employment declined by 1.3%, leading to a rise of 2.1 percentage points in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insights into potential future demand within Heatherton. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Heatherton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Heatherton had a median income among taxpayers of $56,686 and an average level of $71,285. These figures are above the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively in Greater Melbourne. As of September 2025, estimates based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth suggest median income would be approximately $63,579 and average income $79,953. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Heatherton cluster around the 68th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 32.4% of locals (926 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. The area exhibits affluence with 30.2% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 70th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Heatherton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Heatherton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 82.2% houses and 17.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This differed from Melbourne metro's structure which was 54.8% houses and 45.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heatherton stood at 29.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.1% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,224, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Heatherton was recorded as $471, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Heatherton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,224 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Heatherton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.7% of all households, including 43.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Heatherton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Heatherton trail regional benchmarks with 36.3% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 46.0% in SA4 region. Bachelor degrees lead at 23.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 9.2% and graduate diplomas at 3.4%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 17.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.3% in primary education, 11.0% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education. Christway College provides local educational services within Heatherton, with an enrollment of 813 students as of the reported date. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1116). All 1 schools offer integrated K-12 education, providing continuity throughout students' academic journey. The area functions as an education hub with 28.4 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 15.6 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Heatherton has 30 active public transport stops. All are bus stops served by 10 different routes. These routes combined offer 2,003 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 292 meters. On average, there are 286 trips per day across all routes, which equals about 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Heatherton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Heatherton. Both younger and older age groups have low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 55% (~1,572 people) of Heatherton's total population has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 58.2%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.9%) and mental health issues (6.4%). About 74.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 70.4% in Greater Melbourne. Heatherton has 14.9% (425 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 19.3%. Seniors' health outcomes are above average, similar to the general population's profile.

Heatherton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Heatherton's population shows high linguistic diversity, with 31.9% speaking a language other than English at home, and 38.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 47.4%. Notably, Judaism comprises 3.7%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 1.1%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians make up 18.9%, English 18.5% (lower than regional average), and Other 15.1% (higher). Significant differences exist in South African (2.2% vs regional 0.6%), Russian (2.1% vs 1.0%), and Polish (1.7% vs 1.0%) representation.

Heatherton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Heatherton's median age is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 45-54 age group is notably over-represented in Heatherton at 17.3%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average and the national figure of 12.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.1% to 14.7%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 18.7% to 17.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Heatherton's age profile. The 45-54 age group is expected to expand by 156 people (32%), growing from 494 to 651 individuals. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group is projected to grow modestly by 5 people (5%).