Moorabbin - Heatherton

Population growth drivers in Moorabbin - Heatherton are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Moorabbin - Heatherton is approximately 9,969 in May 2026. This represents a growth of 853 people (9.4%) from the 2021 Census, when the population was recorded at 9,116 people. This shift is calculated using the ABS estimated resident population of 9,832 in June 2025 and 358 validated new addresses recorded since the Census. The resulting population density stands at 852 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with the average across other locations evaluated by AreaSearch. Outperforming the SA3 area (6.7%) and the broader SA4 region, Moorabbin - Heatherton's 9.4% growth since the 2021 census establishes it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this demographic expansion, accounting for roughly 86.5% of the total population gains in recent times.

AreaSearch relies on the projections released in 2024 by the ABS and Geoscience Australia for individual SA2 areas, using 2022 as the baseline year. For any SA2 regions lacking this dataset, AreaSearch uses the 2023 Regional/LGA projections from the VIC State Government, adjusted through a weighted aggregation of population growth from the LGA to the SA2 level. The age group growth rates derived from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for the period from 2032 to 2041. Based on these projected demographic transitions, the location is expected to experience population growth above the national median for statistical areas, with a projected increase of 1,974 persons by 2041 compared to the most recent annual ERP figures, representing an overall increase of 18.4% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Moorabbin - Heatherton among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

On average, Moorabbin - Heatherton has recorded about 97 new dwelling approvals annually, resulting in a total of 485 homes over the last 5 financial years. In FY-26 to date, 25 approvals have been registered. With an average of only 0.8 new residents per year per constructed dwelling over the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), new housing supply matches or exceeds local demand. This trend provides purchasers with broader options and supports population growth that may outpace current projections, with new homes being built at an average value of $353,000. Additionally, commercial approvals have reached $58.8 million this financial year, reflecting robust local commercial development.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Moorabbin - Heatherton features 90.0% more new residential approvals (per person), offering buyers a wide selection of properties. Recent building activity consists of 14.0% standalone homes and 86.0% townhouses or apartments. This preference for medium and high-density living provides accessible entry options and draws downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a notable shift from the current housing mix (which stands at 78.0% houses), indicating a decline in available development land and adapting to shifting lifestyle choices and housing affordability constraints. There are roughly 90 people per dwelling approval in the locality, showing a growing market.

Projecting forward, Moorabbin - Heatherton is anticipated to add 1,831 residents by 2041 (starting from the most recent quarterly estimate by AreaSearch). At current construction volumes, new residential supply is positioned to easily satisfy demand, creating favorable conditions for purchasers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current population estimates.

Moorabbin - Heatherton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major planning decisions, and development initiatives are key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 43 projects poised to affect the local area. Notable projects include the Bluff Road Hampton East Redevelopment, Southpoint Highett, Westfield Southland Ongoing Upgrades, and Sanctuary Sandringham, with the list below highlighting those of greatest significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Moorabbin - Heatherton has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

The local workforce in Moorabbin - Heatherton is highly educated, featuring a strong concentration of professionals, alongside an unemployment rate of 7.1%. As of March 2026, there are 5,261 employed residents, while the unemployment rate sits 2.3% higher than the Greater Melbourne rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation matches the Greater Melbourne average of 70.2%. Census data reveals that a high proportion of residents, 37.3%, worked from home, though this figure should be considered in light of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions.

Resident employment is heavily concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and retail trade. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing accounts for only 3.4% of the local workforce, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.2%. With a ratio of 2.0 workers for every resident at the time of the Census, the locality serves as a major employment center, containing more jobs than residents and drawing commuters from neighboring suburbs.

AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS statistics indicates that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the local labour force contracted by 0.3% while employment fell by 1.0%, leading to a 0.6 percentage point increase in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.1%, a labor force expansion of 2.3%, and a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia published in May-25 offer additional perspective on prospective demand trends in Moorabbin - Heatherton. These five-year and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local employment mix to project growth paths. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary widely by industry. Projecting these industry-specific trends onto Moorabbin - Heatherton's employment distribution suggests local jobs will grow by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate local population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's compilation of the latest postcode-level ATO statistics released for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the Moorabbin - Heatherton SA2 recorded a median income of $62,317 and an average income of $77,363. These figures are significantly above the national average and compare to Greater Melbourne averages of $57,688 and $75,164. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates indicate levels of approximately $68,312 (median) and $84,805 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census reports that household, family, and personal incomes in Moorabbin - Heatherton sit around the 69th percentile nationwide. The statistics indicate 30.9% of the population (3,080 individuals) earn in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is very similar to the metropolitan average of 32.8% in this category. The high proportion of top earners (31.0% above $3,000/week) demonstrates strong purchasing power in the area. High housing costs account for 16.8% of income, yet strong earnings keep disposable income at the 67th percentile, and the area is positioned in the 7th decile of the SEIFA income index.

Moorabbin - Heatherton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The distribution of housing types in Moorabbin - Heatherton at the time of the latest Census consisted of 78.1% standalone houses and 21.9% other dwelling types (such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's mix of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership rates in Moorabbin - Heatherton were equal to the Melbourne metro average at 30.2%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (40.7%) or rented (29.0%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was significantly higher than the Melbourne metro average of $2,000 at $2,300, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $440, compared to $390 in metro Melbourne. Nationally, Moorabbin - Heatherton's mortgage payments are much higher than the Australian median of $1,863, and rent prices are also well above the national median of $375.

Moorabbin - Heatherton has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households represent the largest segment at 72.2% of all households, consisting of couples with children at 37.2%, couples without children at 23.0%, and single parent families at 11.1%. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.8%, with single-person households representing 24.1% and group households making up 3.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 residents is identical to the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational achievement in Moorabbin - Heatherton places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The educational profile of the locality is a standout within the region, with university attainment rates (38.6% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the national average of 30.4%, showing a strong community focus on tertiary education. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees (9.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational and technical training is also highly represented, with 28.5% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (16.0%).

Enrolment in education is remarkably strong, with 30.3% of the population currently undertaking formal study. This comprises 10.3% in primary schools, 8.1% in high schools, and 5.6% enrolled in tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport infrastructure includes 90 active stops within Moorabbin - Heatherton, which are served by buses. These stops accommodate 26 separate routes, which run a combined 4,639 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is highly rated, with residents living an average of 186 meters from their nearest transit stop. Given the residential nature of the suburb, most workers commute outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of travel at 84%, followed by trains at 8%. Households own an average of 1.3 cars. A high proportion of residents, 37.3%, work from home (based on 2021 Census data, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions).

Service frequency across all routes averages 662 trips daily, which translates to approximately 51 weekly services at each individual stop.

Moorabbin - Heatherton's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

An evaluation of health indicators shows positive outcomes throughout Moorabbin - Heatherton, based on AreaSearch's review of mortality figures and chronic illness rates, with both youth and older groups displaying low rates of common health issues, while the rate of private health insurance is exceptionally high at roughly 58% of the total population (~5,782 people).

The most prevalent health diagnoses in the area are mental health conditions and asthma, affecting 7.2 and 6.9% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 72.3% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population is particularly healthy, showing low rates of chronic disease. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 16.7% of the population (1,668 people), which is higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 15.0%. Health outcomes among older residents are strong, with national rankings aligning closely with the broader population.

Moorabbin - Heatherton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Moorabbin - Heatherton displays a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.4% of the population born outside Australia and 30.4% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 45.6% of residents. The most notable religious difference is in Judaism, which accounts for 4.1% of local residents compared to just 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

Regarding ancestral background (based on parents' place of birth), the three largest groups in Moorabbin - Heatherton are English at 20.3% of the population, Australian at 18.9% of the population, and Other at 12.8% of the population. There are also distinct differences in other ethnic communities, with Polish ancestry overrepresented at 1.9% of the population (vs 0.8% regionally), Russian at 1.9% (vs 0.4%), and Greek at 4.2% (vs 2.7%).

Moorabbin - Heatherton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Moorabbin - Heatherton has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and marginally above the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, there is a high concentration of residents in the 45 - 54 age bracket (13.8% locally), while the 25 - 34 demographic is underrepresented (11.2%). Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age bracket has expanded from 10.4% to 13.4% of the population, while the 45 to 54 bracket has contracted from 15.4% to 13.8%. Demographic modeling indicates the age structure of Moorabbin - Heatherton will change by 2041. The 45 to 54 bracket is forecast to grow significantly, increasing by 334 people (24%) from 1,373 to 1,708, while the 0 to 4 group is projected to rise by only 1% (5 people).