Sandringham - Black Rock

Population growth drivers in Sandringham - Black Rock are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Sandringham - Black Rock's population is 18,734 as of February 2026. This reflects a 7.9% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 17,358 people. The increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 18,022 in June 2024 and 207 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,913 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. Over the past decade, Sandringham - Black Rock has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Sandringham - Black Rock is expected to grow by 1,743 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Sandringham - Black Rock among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Sandringham - Black Rock has seen approximately 127 residential properties granted approval annually. From FY-21 to FY-25639 homes were approved, with an additional 15 approved in FY-26 so far. Over these five years, there was an average of zero new residents per year per dwelling constructed.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $686,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $39.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sandringham - Black Rock has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, but it ranks among the 89th percentile nationally for building activity. Recent years have seen an acceleration in building activity, with 16.0% detached dwellings and 84.0% townhouses or apartments approved.

This shift towards denser development caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, marking a significant departure from the current housing pattern of 52.0% houses. Sandringham - Black Rock reflects a developing area, with approximately 98 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 1,031 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Sandringham - Black Rock has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 potential impact projects. Notable ones are Sanctuary Sandringham, The Coterie, Beach Point Sandringham, and Miramar. The following details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Sandringham - Black Rock has been broadly consistent with national averages

Sandringham - Black Rock has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation and a low unemployment rate of 3.3%. As of September 2025, there are 9,761 residents employed while the area's unemployment rate is 1.4% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Sandringham - Black Rock lags behind Greater Melbourne at 64.7%.

According to Census responses, 49.1% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical services (1.6 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Transport, postal & warehousing employs only 2.6% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.4%, while employment decreased by 0.6%, resulting in a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sandringham - Black Rock's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Sandringham - Black Rock SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $66,997 and an average income of $115,652. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, compared to Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. By September 2025, adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%, estimated incomes would be approximately $72,524 (median) and $125,193 (average). Census data ranks Sandringham - Black Rock's household, family, and personal incomes between the 85th and 86th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 30.3% of residents earn over $4,000 weekly, contrasting with the region's leading bracket of $1,500 - $2,999 at 32.8%. High earners make up 41.9%, indicating strong purchasing power. Housing costs account for 13.6% of income, and residents rank in the 87th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Sandringham - Black Rock displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Sandringham - Black Rock, as recorded in the latest Census, 52.5% of dwellings were houses and 47.5% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sandringham - Black Rock stood at 44.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.5% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,800, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $486, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sandringham - Black Rock's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,800 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Sandringham - Black Rock has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.5% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 28.0% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Sandringham - Black Rock demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Sandringham - Black Rock has a higher educational attainment than broader Australian benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 47.4% have university qualifications compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. This is due to a high proportion of bachelor degrees (30.8%), postgraduate qualifications (11.7%), and graduate diplomas (4.9%). Vocational pathways are also prevalent, with 23.5% of residents holding advanced diplomas (12.1%) or certificates (11.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% currently enrolled in formal education, including secondary (8.9%), primary (8.7%), and tertiary (6.5%) levels.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sandringham - Black Rock has 70 operational public transport stops, served by 11 different routes. These routes facilitate a total of 4,283 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 199 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 82% of residents, while train usage stands at 8%. Walking accounts for 5% of commutes.

On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 49.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 611 trips per day, equating to approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sandringham - Black Rock's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Sandringham - Black Rock's health outcomes data shows exceptional results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 78% of the total population (14,612 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.9% and 6.7% of residents respectively. 70.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.3% (5,120 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Sandringham - Black Rock was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sandringham-Black Rock has a higher-than-average cultural diversity, with 12.2% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 26.5% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion in Sandringham-Black Rock, accounting for 48.1% of people. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.9% versus 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English is the most prevalent group at 29.6%, significantly higher than the regional average of 20.1%. Australian and Irish are also notable groups, making up 21.9% and 10.3% respectively. Some other ethnic groups show significant representation: Scottish at 9.5% (regional average is 5.6%), Russian at 0.6% (versus regional 0.4%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (compared to regional 0.3%).

Sandringham - Black Rock hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Sandringham - Black Rock's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 55-64 year-old group is particularly prominent at 15.8%, while the 25-34 year-old group is smaller at 5.9% compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.4% to 10.2% of the population, and the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.4% to 13.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 15.8% to 14.2%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 11.8% to 10.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Sandringham - Black Rock. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 34%, adding 654 residents to reach 2,558. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 90% of the population growth, highlighting trends towards demographic aging. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 55-64 age cohorts.