Sandringham - Black Rock

Population growth drivers in Sandringham - Black Rock are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Sandringham - Black Rock's population is around 18,734 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,376 people (7.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,358 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,022 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 207 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,913 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Sandringham - Black Rock has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 0.7% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,743 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 5.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Sandringham - Black Rock among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Sandringham - Black Rock has recorded around 127 residential properties granted approval per year, with 639 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 18 so far in FY-26. Given an average of only 0 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $686,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $39.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sandringham - Black Rock has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, while it places among the 89th percentile of areas assessed nationally, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. New building activity shows 16.0% detached dwellings and 84.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 52.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. At around 98 people per approval, Sandringham - Black Rock reflects a developing area.

Future projections show Sandringham - Black Rock adding 1,031 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Sandringham - Black Rock has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 34 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Sanctuary Sandringham, The Coterie, Beach Point Sandringham, and Miramar, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sandringham - Black Rock has been broadly consistent with national averages

Sandringham - Black Rock possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, and an unemployment rate of only 3.3%. As of December 2025, 9,710 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.4% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (64.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 49.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. In contrast, transport, postal & warehousing employs just 2.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.4% combined with employment decreasing by 1.0%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Sandringham - Black Rock. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Sandringham - Black Rock's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Sandringham - Black Rock SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $66,997 with the average level standing at $115,652. This is exceptionally high nationally and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $72,524 (median) and $125,193 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Sandringham - Black Rock, between the 85th and 86th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 30.3% of the population (5,676 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 32.8%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 41.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 87th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Sandringham - Black Rock displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Sandringham - Black Rock, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 52.5% houses and 47.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Sandringham - Black Rock was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 44.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (32.5%) or rented (22.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,800, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $486, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Sandringham - Black Rock's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Sandringham - Black Rock has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 70.5% of all households, comprising 32.7% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 28.0% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Sandringham - Black Rock demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Sandringham - Black Rock significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 47.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in VIC. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 30.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.9%). Vocational pathways account for 23.5% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (11.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in secondary education, 8.7% in primary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 70 active transport stops operating within Sandringham - Black Rock, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 4,283 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 8% by train and 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. A high 49.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 611 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sandringham - Black Rock's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Sandringham - Black Rock, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 78% of the total population (14,612 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.9% and 6.7% of residents, respectively, while 70.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 27.3% of residents aged 65 and over (5,120 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Sandringham - Black Rock was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sandringham - Black Rock is above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 12.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 26.5% born overseas. The main religion in Sandringham - Black Rock is Christianity, which makes up 48.1% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.9% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Sandringham - Black Rock are English, comprising 29.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 21.9% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.5% of Sandringham - Black Rock (vs 5.6% regionally), Russian at 0.6% (vs 0.4%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Sandringham - Black Rock hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 48 years, Sandringham - Black Rock's median age is significantly above the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 55 - 64 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.8%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (5.9%) than in Greater Melbourne. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.4% to 10.2% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.4% to 13.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.8% to 14.2% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 11.8% to 10.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Sandringham - Black Rock. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 34%, adding 654 residents to reach 2,558. Senior residents (65+) will drive 90% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 cohorts.