Kelmscott

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kelmscott reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Kelmscott is estimated to be approximately 11,445 in May 2026. This represents an expansion of 841 residents (7.9%) relative to the 10,604 individuals recorded in the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated utilizing the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 11,381 combined with 91 validated new addresses identified after the Census. The population distribution yields a density of 761 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with typical values observed across regions analyzed by AreaSearch. The post-census growth of 7.9% in Kelmscott is within 1.4 percentage points of the 9.3% national benchmark, indicating healthy growth dynamics. The primary driver of this demographic growth has been international migration, which accounted for roughly 72.0% of the overall population increase in recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates population projections for SA2 regions published by the ABS and Geoscience Australia in 2024, utilizing 2022 as the base year. For SA2 territories lacking this specific coverage, as well as for projecting growth past 2032, AreaSearch applies age-cohort growth rates derived from the Greater Capital Region projections published by the ABS in 2023 using 2022 data. Future demographic patterns suggest a population expansion that is slightly underneath the median for national regions, with projections indicating the local population will grow by 916 residents by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, which is an overall rise of 7.4% across the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kelmscott recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Development approvals in Kelmscott average approximately 30 residential units annually, with a total of 151 properties approved during the previous 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 30 approvals recorded thus far in FY-26. Over the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), the area added an average of 2.8 new residents for each completed dwelling, pointing to healthy demand that helps sustain real estate values. The average construction value for these new properties stands at $206,000, which is lower than regional benchmarks and indicates more economical housing possibilities. In addition, commercial development approvals total $7.8 million for the current financial year, showing a modest emphasis on commercial building activity.

Compared to the broader Greater Perth area, building activity in Kelmscott is significantly constrained, tracking 75.0% below the regional average on a per capita basis. This low volume of new completions generally bolsters demand and supports valuations for established homes. The construction rate is also below the national standard, indicating a mature residential area and potential planning limitations. The mix of new construction consists of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% semi-detached or attached options, preserving the classic low-density environment that favors family properties with ample space. The ratio of approximately 390 people in the locality for every building approval highlights a quiet, low-volume development setting.

Future projections indicate Kelmscott will add 852 inhabitants by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations by AreaSearch. Current levels of construction activity appear to match future demands, supporting balanced market conditions without driving major price escalation.

Kelmscott has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major works, and planning updates are key drivers of regional change. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects expected to influence this locality. Among the major developments are the Kelmscott District Centre Precinct Structure Plan, the Armadale Strategic Metropolitan Centre Redevelopment, the West of Rail Precinct, and the Armadale Courthouse and Police Complex, with details on the most significant projects provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Kelmscott faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

The local workforce in Kelmscott presents a mix of professional and industrial occupations, with a notable presence of manufacturing and industrial sectors. The area registers an unemployment rate of 8.4% alongside an estimated 1.5% increase in jobs over the past year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 5,560, while the local unemployment rate exceeded that of Greater Perth (4.2%) by 4.2%, indicating potential for labor market improvement. Workforce participation is also lower at 64.5% compared to 70.2% in Greater Perth. Data from the Census showed that a modest 5.3% of workers worked from home, although this figure may be influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The locality exhibits a clear specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, where the proportion of workers is 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services are underrepresented, making up 4.6% of the workforce compared to the regional benchmark of 8.2%. The area is predominantly residential and offers limited employment options within its boundaries, as shown by the comparison of local workers to resident workers from the Census.

An analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch reveals that during the 12 months ending March 2026, local employment grew by 1.5% while the labor force expanded by 2.0%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. Over the same period, Greater Perth saw employment rise by 2.0% and its labor force grow by 2.5%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional context on future demand trends for Kelmscott. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential growth. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with performance varying widely by industry. Weighting these projections against the local industry mix suggests Kelmscott employment could rise by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, using a basic weighted extrapolation that does not incorporate localized population shifts.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

In the Kelmscott SA2, tax data from the ATO aggregated by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year indicates a median taxpayer income of $56,773 and an average income of $70,171. These figures sit slightly above national benchmarks, while contrasting with a median of $60,748 and an average of $80,248 in Greater Perth. Adjusting for a 10.93% growth in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to a median income of $62,978 and an average income of $77,841 as of March 2026. Census data from 2021 shows that household, family, and personal incomes in the area all rank at the 24th percentile nationally. The largest earnings bracket is the weekly range of $1,500 - 2,999, which accounts for 29.8% of taxpayers (3,410 residents) and is close to the regional share of 32.0%. Housing cost pressures are pronounced, with residents retaining 83.5% of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the 24th percentile.

Kelmscott is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the latest Census, the housing stock in Kelmscott was comprised of 81.6% separate houses and 18.3% other dwelling types, such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative structures, compared to 77.8% houses and 22.1% alternative dwellings across metropolitan Perth. Home ownership in Kelmscott reached 31.2%, which was higher than the metropolitan Perth rate, while mortgaged properties accounted for 41.3% and rented properties made up 27.5% of homes. The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,500, which is lower than the metropolitan Perth median, and the median weekly rent was $290, compared to metropolitan Perth averages of $1,907 and $350. Nationally, mortgage payments in Kelmscott are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national median of $375.

Kelmscott has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families comprise 66.7% of all local households, consisting of couples with children at 25.0%, couples without children at 25.4%, and single parents at 14.5%. The remaining 33.3% are non-family households, which consist of lone persons at 29.9% and group arrangements at 3.4%. The average household size stands at 2.4 residents, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Kelmscott shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational attainment profiles in the area show that 16.9% of residents hold university qualifications, which is lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This gap highlights areas for targeted educational advancement. Bachelor degrees represent the most common higher degree at 12.0%, with postgraduate degrees at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.1%. Vocational and technical qualifications are common, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding VET qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 31.7%.

There is strong participation in study locally, with 29.1% of the population enrolled in an educational program. This group includes 10.7% in primary school, 8.4% in high school, and 3.8% attending university or other higher education institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transit options reveals 98 active train and bus stops within Kelmscott. These stops are served by 13 distinct routes, providing a combined total of 1,543 weekly passenger trips. Transit access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 212 meters from their nearest stop. Because the suburb is primarily residential, most workers commute out of the area, with private vehicles being the primary mode of transport at 84%, followed by trains at 10%. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.4 cars. A low proportion of residents (5.3%) worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect the pandemic conditions of that period.

Service frequency across all routes averages 220 journeys per day, which translates to about 15 weekly trips for each transport stop in the area.

Health performance in Kelmscott is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators point to notable challenges in Kelmscott, based on AreaSearch assessments of mortality rates and chronic health conditions across various age groups. The rate of private health insurance coverage stands at approximately 54% of the population, representing about 6,168 residents, which is slightly above the average SA2 region but below the Greater Perth average of 59.0%.

Mental health conditions and arthritis were the most prevalent diagnoses locally, affecting 10.2% and 9.0% of the population respectively. Meanwhile, 64.4% of residents reported having no long-term health conditions, compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth. The cohort of working-age residents shows elevated rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and older make up 20.2% of the local population (2,306 people), compared to 16.1% across Greater Perth. Senior citizens in the area face health challenges, with local health rankings for this group being higher than those of the national average.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kelmscott was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kelmscott displays higher cultural diversity than most comparison markets, with 12.1% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 31.5% of the population born outside Australia. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 42.8% of the community. The most distinct variance is in the Other religious category, which represents 1.2% of the population in Kelmscott compared to 1.4% in Greater Perth.

Looking at ancestral backgrounds, the three largest groups in Kelmscott are English at 33.4% of the population, which is higher than the regional average of 28.0%, Australian at 24.1%, and Other at 8.3%. There are also distinct concentrations of other backgrounds, with Dutch ancestry representing 2.6% of Kelmscott compared to 1.5% regionally, Welsh at 0.8% compared to 0.7%, and Maori at 1.1% compared to 0.9%.

Kelmscott's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Kelmscott is 40 years, which is older than the Greater Perth median of 37 and slightly higher than the Australian median of 38 years. Relative to Greater Perth, the area has an overrepresentation of people aged 65 - 74 (10.6% locally) and an underrepresentation of those aged 35 - 44 (13.4%). Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has risen from 5.8% to 7.3%, while the 55 to 64 group has decreased from 12.8% to 11.8%. Projections suggest the age profile of Kelmscott will change by 2041, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 470 people (56%), rising from 840 to 1,311. Furthermore, the combined 65 and older age brackets are projected to account for 80% of all population growth, highlighting the aging trend of the suburb. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are projected to see population drops.