Kelmscott

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kelmscott reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kelmscott's population is around 11,231 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 627 people (5.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,604 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,193 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 81 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 746 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 76.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 1,013 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 8.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kelmscott recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kelmscott has averaged around 30 new dwelling approvals per year, with 151 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 17 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.2 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating healthy demand that should support property values, new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $206,000‚—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. Additionally, $7.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Compared to Greater Perth, Kelmscott shows substantially reduced construction (75.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 384 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Kelmscott is expected to grow by 975 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping a reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Kelmscott has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 18 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Kelmscott District Centre Precinct Structure Plan, the Armadale Strategic Metropolitan Centre Redevelopment, the West of Rail Precinct, and the Armadale Courthouse and Police Complex, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Kelmscott lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Kelmscott possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 8.9%, and 1.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,487 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 4.8% above Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (64.5% compared to Greater Perth's 71.9%). Based on Census responses, a low 5.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.6% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 8.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 1.0% alongside the labour force increasing by 1.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 2.3%, labour force growth of 2.6%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kelmscott. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kelmscott's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Kelmscott SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $56,773 and an average of $70,171 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is just above the national average, contrasting with Greater Perth's median income of $60,748 and average income of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $62,235 (median) and $76,921 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Kelmscott all fall between the 24th and 24th percentiles nationally. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.8% of residents (3,346 people), mirroring regional levels where 32.0% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 24th percentile.

Kelmscott is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Kelmscott, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 81.6% houses and 18.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kelmscott was higher than that of Perth metro, at 31.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.3%) or rented (27.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Perth metro average at $1,500, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $290, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Kelmscott's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kelmscott has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 66.7% of all households, comprising 25.0% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 3.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Kelmscott shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.9%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (31.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 98 active transport stops operating within Kelmscott, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 13 individual routes, collectively providing 1,543 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 212 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 84%, with 10% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 5.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 220 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kelmscott is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Kelmscott, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 54% of the total population (~6,053 people). This compares to 59.0% across Greater Perth.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 10.2 and 9.0% of residents, respectively, while 64.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 21.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,376 people), which is higher than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kelmscott was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kelmscott was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 12.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 31.5% born overseas. The main religion in Kelmscott is Christianity, which makes up 42.8% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.2% of the population, compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kelmscott are English, comprising 33.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 28.0%, Australian, comprising 24.1% of the population, and Other, comprising 8.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.6% of Kelmscott (vs 1.5% regionally), Welsh at 0.8% (vs 0.7%) and Maori at 1.1% (vs 0.9%).

Kelmscott's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Kelmscott is somewhat higher than the Greater Perth figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Perth average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (11.1% locally), while 35 - 44 year-olds are under-represented (13.0%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.8% to 7.6% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 12.3% to 11.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Kelmscott's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 485 people (57%) from 853 to 1,339. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 79% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.